Pricing your own race

[The Brigadier]

Having been making my own tissue prices for over 35 years for many of the leading bookmakers I thought I would share my strategy and thoughts. As to any serious punter the ability to be able to put your own opinions into odds form can be vital when attempting to get one over on the old enemy.

There is a small amount of general arithmetic needed to relate a horses chance into a percentage figure.

The first thing to understand is that every book is compiled to 100% with any thing over that the bookmakers profit margin (or over round). If you can back every runner in the race to under 100% (thus meaning with a staking plan you can’t lose, a perfect book) then this is called over broke.

Every price has a percentage to match which can be worked out by dividing the price plus stake into 100. So for example 2/1 is 2/1 plus 1 = 3 divided into 100 which equates to 33% or 6/4 is 1.5 plus 1 = 2.5 divided into 100 which equates to 40%. The best way to learn these is to write them all out and like anything in time you’ll get to remember them. Below is a chart with the majority of odds and their percentages.

So every price has a percentage which when added together with all the others in the race must add up to 100% plus any extra margin you like. I’ve always worked to the 2% a runner for the first ten runners then 1% any others. So a 12 runner race would be 122% (that’s 10 runners x 2% plus 2 runners x 1%). Obviously the better the race or meeting the less the margin over 100%. For example if that 12 runner race was at Royal Ascot you would more than likely be looking at 112%.

If you are just pricing a race for your own good and not as a bookmaker looking to lay them then it is advisable to bet to the 100% mark.

Now you know the basics we can start the fun of something we all like doing which is getting our heads stuck in the form book.

Personally I work from the top of the race card and after form study put a price next to each horse, changing them as I work down the field as I begin to get a ‘feel’ for the race. I know of many odds compilers that like to have a brief look at the race and put them in some sort of order before pricing up. There’s no exact science as to where to start and finish and it really is a personnel preference.

I don’t really need to elaborate as to how to read the form book as once again that really is something which everyone has their own ideas on but I would say that for me the most important factor is the ground followed by trip. Nowadays the punter has so many tools and help to hand that if you put in the hours you’ll certainly be able to put one over the bookmakers.

Once you’ve compiled your list then compare it to the odds that the bookmakers produce and remember just because everyone is for example 10/1 a certain horse that you made only a 5/1 chance doesn’t mean you’re wrong. Far from it in fact. Nowadays William Hills normally will price up the majority of the handicaps at the 48 hour stage and others will follow suit at the overnight stage. Surprisingly a lot of the bigger companies are quite happy to just follow the firms that have already issued odds and it’s not un-common for a horse to be the same price right across the line of oddschecker (or any other price comparison site).

Like anything in life the more experienced at pricing races you become the more confident you become. There’s no better feeling then pricing a race and having a strong opinion on one and seeing that it’s significantly bigger with the bookmakers. Then it’s time to test your judgement against theirs!

I’ve tried to make this piece as user friendly as possible as if you can understand the percentages of each price and can bash them into a calculator then it really is that easy and fun. Please try it and I would love to know your successes (or failures, as they’ll be plenty of those along the way I assure you!).

Finally Simon Rowlands, an esteemed and very well respected form analyst who works for Timeform produced an article regarding pricing a race back in 2015 if anyone wants further reading https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/rowley/the-timeform-knowledge-pricing-up-a-race-15102015

[richard-westwood]

Wow .....I was just working on something similar ....I've nearly finished it .I'll post it up in a bit so we can discuss improvements etc