Rugby Union Bets 2021

[harry_rag]

Added a sell of Leinster sub try minutes for 1 point at 67 (prices weren't up earlier).

[harry_rag]

For tomorrow's early action,

Hurricanes v Chiefs: Sell Hurricanes hotshots for 1 point at 41 (Jordie Barrett, Julian Savea, Billy Proctor, Salesi Rayasi)

Reds v Force: Sell Reds hotshots for 1 point at 40 (Jock Campbell, Suliasi Vunivalu, Jordan Petaia, Ilaisa Droasese) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 41

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23 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Ulster v Zebre: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 64 (Ethan McIlroy, Robert Baloucoune, Rob Lyttle, John Cooney) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 64

That sub try minutes price was actually 63. 6 from 8 yesterday for +191 points. These for today.

Bath v Worcester: Sell Bath hotshots for 1 point at 50 (Tom de Glanville, Ruaridh McConnochie, Will Muir, Zach Mercer)

Harlequins v Gloucester: Sell Harlequins hotshots for 1 point at 61 (Tyrone Green, Cadan Murley, Danny Care, Alex Dombrandt) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 52

Scotland v Italy: Sell Italy hotshots for 1 point at 72 (Sean Maitland, Darcy Graham, Huw Jones, Duhan van der Merwe) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 60

Exeter v Leicester: Sell Exeter hotshots for 1 point at 52 (Facundo Cordero, Olly Woodburn, Tom O'Flaherty, Sam Simmonds) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 37

France v Wales: Sell France hotshots for 1 point at 43 (Teddy Thomas, Virimi Vakatawa, Damian Penaud, Antoine Dupont)

[harry_rag]

Ireland v England: 6 points on Watson and Cowan-Dickie both to score a try at 16/1 with Hills

Double odds offer that seems worth taking (best individual odds doubled up = 12/1).

In a similar vein they are apparently going 7/2 Wales for the Grand Slam later. I'll be taking the allowed stake for that as it seems to be edging into value territory and is a nice hedge for my antepost bet on no Grand Slam winner.

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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:

In a similar vein they are apparently going 7/2 Wales for the Grand Slam later. I'll be taking the allowed stake for that as it seems to be edging into value territory and is a nice hedge for my antepost bet on no Grand Slam winner.

20 points on >1.5 cards in that game with Hills. Given what's at stake that looks the wrong side of 5/2 to me.

[harry_rag]

10 points on the Wales Grand Slam win at 7/2 with Hills.

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3 games to go at today.

Sale v London Irish: Sell Sale hotshots for 1 point at 35 (Simon Hammersley, Byron McGuigan, Sam James, Arron Reed)

Dragons v Glasgow: Sell Dragons sub try minutes at 37 and Glasgow sub try minutes at 44 and 17 points on McLean to score a try at 15/8 with PP

McLean caught my eye because his try minutes are 22-25 with one firm and 29-33 with another. Even at the lowest end of those prices, 15/8 looks fair at worst and he's 5/4 or less elsewhere. Has 2 tries in 5 games so far.

[harry_rag]

Spreads been so-so this weekend but fixed odds picked up the slack with no grand slam winner, cards in the final 6 Nations game and a try for McLean. 3 bets so far from tonight's 2 games.

Cardiff v Edinburgh: Sell Cardiff hotshots for 1 point at 38 (Jason Harries, Rey Lee-Lo, Ben Thomas, Aled Summerhill) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 40

Scarlets v Connacht: Sell Scarlets hotshots for 1 point at 41 (Tom Rogers, Tom Prydie, Tyler Morgan, Steff Evans)

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France v Scotland: 20 points on Hogg to score a try at 18/5 Uni

More ok for an interest bet than one I can argue as clear value. 2 or more cards would appeal at last week's 11/4 (France v Wales) but not at the 7/4 I've seen for tonight.

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Exeter v Worcester: Sell Exeter hotshots for 1 point at 59 with SPIN (Stuart Hogg, Jack Nowell, Henry Slade, Tom O'Flaherty) and their sub try minutes for 1 point at 52 with the same firm.

The latter is a fairly routine sell but the former looks like a great bet to me. SX go 60-64 for hotshots, the crucial difference being that they have the more obvious Sam Simmonds instead of Slade. Simmonds' try minutes are 43 to buy whereas Slade's are only 14.

I'd make the "true" value of the SPIN quartet (based on try minutes prices) 44.2 and the maximum value 50.6. Contrast that with 61.6 and 69.2 for SX's hotshots. With Simmonds the prices look about right, with Slade it triggers the "sell, sell, sell" klaxon.

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Northampton v Exeter: Sell Exeter hotshots for 1 point at 62 with SPIN (Stuart Hogg, Facundo Cordero, Henry Slade, Tom O Flaherty)

See last post, swap Cordero for Nowell and tweak some of the numbers and it's the same thing again, the key point being that SPIN have Slade in the hotshots but SX have the much more valuable Simmonds.

SX go 57-61 for a quartet that I'd value at 64 with an absolute maximum of 70. SPIN go 62-66 when I make the true value 45 and the maximum 51.

The klaxon's sounding again (Cum on Feel the Noize) and, win or lose, this is a value bet.

[harry_rag]

Lions v Japan: Sell Lions sub try minutes for 1 point at 70 with SPIN

As per the England Women RL hotshots sell last night, this is another higher than average price (my average sell price is 48; only 24 out of 365 bets have been at a price of 70+). Those 23 bets yielded 16 winning ones and a profit of 509 points (more than double the average return per bet). Anything could happen today from a welcome nilling to a bloody nose due to a glut of sub tries but, at the price, it's a sell for me every time.

[harry_rag]

On 6/26/2021 at 11:45 AM, harry_rag said:

Anything could happen today from a welcome nilling to a bloody nose due to a glut of sub tries but, at the price, it's a sell for me every time.

Welcome nilling for +70 points. 

South Africa v Georgia: Sell South Africa hotshots for 1 point at 85 with SPIN (Willie le Roux, Rosko Specman, Aphelele Fassi, Cobus Reinach)

SX have Kriel instead of le Roux and go 74-79. Based on the try minutes prices I'd value the SX quartet at 69.8 and the SPIN one at 68.3. Either would be a sell for me but, for some reason, a perceived edge of 17 points appeals slightly more than one of 4 points!

SA subs are 111-119 with SPIN and 117-124 the other lot. You know what to do ("you" being anyone who accidentally strays into this thread before the game starts and has a SX account). 

[harry_rag]

Hotshots made up at 50 for a 35 point profit. Sub try mins made up at 127 so would have shown a 10 point loss.

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England v USA: Buy Smith try mins for 1.5 points at 17 with SPIN (now down to 16)

The RP make a reasonable case for backing him to score a try at 11/10 so the spreads may be a little low (I'd normally expect an 11/10 shot to be priced at around 26 or 27 rather than 10 points lower). It could be that SPIN are right and both the fixed odds firms and the RP are wrong but I'll take a chance.

[harry_rag]

66th minute try for a 73.5 point profit.

[harry_rag]

On 6/26/2021 at 11:45 AM, harry_rag said:

Anything could happen today from a welcome nilling to a bloody nose due to a glut of sub tries but, at the price, it's a sell for me every time.

That one made up at 0 for a 70 point profit. Luckily (at least in terms of my P/L figure on here) I didn't post my sell of New Zealand sub try minutes at 111 this morning. That was more avalanche than glut, making up at 335 for a loss of 224 x stake! Easily my worst result in over 2600 sells but I found it mildly amusing more than anything, like a bird watcher making a particularly rare and unusual sighting. Not sure I'd have been so relaxed about it if it had come in the first 100 bets though.

England v Canada: Sell England hotshots for 1 point at 107 with SPIN (Joe Cokanasiga, Henry Slade, Adam Radwan, Alex Dombrandt) - SX have Steward rather than Dombrandt and go 88-94. My indicative values 82.9 for the SPIN foursome and 78.5 for the SX one.

Ireland v USA: Sell Ireland hotshots for 1 point at 75 with SPIN (Hugo Keenan, Robert Baloucoune, Andrew Conway, Gavin Coombes) - SX have Hume rather than Coombes and go 59-63. My values are 58.7 and 53.2.

Despite waking up to a pummelling courtesy of the All Blacks bench my approach remains the same; if you see a price that looks too high then sell it!

[harry_rag]

Made up at 125 and 75 for an 18 point loss.

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South Africa A v British and Irish Lions: 6 points on du Toit to score a try at 10/1 Sky Bet and buy Murray try mins for 1.5 points at 5 with SPIN (now available at 4 with SX)

It's a bit lazy but I generally find that following a RP tip at much better than their quoted odds isn't the worst way to bet.

du Toit advised at 7/2 so I assume they'd be frothing at the thought of 10/1 (try mins 5 to buy). Murray flagged at 17/4, he's 13/2 with SX and similar on the exchange but I favour the spreads, especially if you can get on at 4.

[harry_rag]

No joy with the last 2 bets.

South Africa v Lions: 20 points on a yellow card for both teams at 3/1 Hills and 5 points on Smith to score a try at 7/1 PP

I'd have preferred a price for >1.5 total yellow cards that felt like value but couldn't find one. 3/1 both teams will do for an interest. You can get 4/7 for >0.5 cards and 12/5 for none. I suspect the 4/7 may be the value but I've got it in my head we're guaranteed at least one card today.

7/1 feels a bit big for Smith, with all the more likely scorers looking too short to me.

[harry_rag]

Argentina v South Africa: 20 points on Reinach to score a try at 11/4 PP

Sub 2/1 in most places, 9/4 in a couple which I'd say is fair at worst.

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Ulster v Benetton: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 52 with SPIN (Will Addison, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Rob Herring)

SX go 46-50 with Stewart Moore instead of Herring. Looking at their player try minutes prices (SPIN's not up yet) I get an indicative value of 47.1 which is in the middle of their spread. Not quite as easy to value SPIN's hotshots as Herring is one of the front 5 who are priced as a group at 20-23. Even if we allow that the other 4 are worth zero though (unlikely), that still only gives a value of 45.35.

In a market where you wouldn't go far wrong selling blindly at these prices it's nice to be able to identify an apparent edge on a specific bet. That said, this could be the game where the hotshots run riot and rack up 8 tries for a punitive make up.

Stewart Moore is interesting at 16/5 anytime with PP or the Sportsbook but I can't get on to a stake that merits posting on here! 

SX have him at 23-36 which makes him joint highest price with Gilroy who is odds on almost across the board. If the spreads are in the right ballpark it's hard to see why he would be bigger than 2/1 let alone bigger than 3s. Might score, might not, but definitely value in my opinion, if you can get more than the cost of a cup of coffee on.

[harry_rag]

Bayonne v Beziers: Sell Bayonne hotshots for 1 point at 46 with SPIN (Jacquelain, Lestrade, Baget, Germain)

Similar scenario really, SX go 33-37 with Costosseque instead of Lestrade despite valuing the former slightly higher. I get indicative prices of 32 for the SX quartet and 30.2 for SPIN's.

SPIN don't quote player try minutes in this competition, maybe they value one or more of the players a lot higher than SX do. The consensus is that we'll see around 6 tries in this game; hopefully the foursome in question don't manage to add more than one to the tally.

[harry_rag]

Last 2 bets made up at 50 for a 2 point profit and 0 for 46 points. One that appeals tonight.

Ulster v Lions: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 58 with SPIN (Will Addison, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Nathan Doak)

Insert the usual waffle about why I like the bet; essentially I'm getting a value more like 47. Chance to sell something at >2 tries that seems to be worth just under that mark (hotshots awards 25 points per try scored by the named players).

[four-leaf]

15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Last 2 bets made up at 50 for a 2 point profit and 0 for 46 points. One that appeals tonight.

Ulster v Lions: Sell Ulster hotshots for 1 point at 58 with SPIN (Will Addison, Craig Gilroy, Ethan McIlroy, Nathan Doak)

Insert the usual waffle about why I like the bet; essentially I'm getting a value more like 47. Chance to sell something at >2 tries that seems to be worth just under that mark (hotshots awards 25 points per try scored by the named players).

Can you explain in some more simplier way so I can understand what you had your bet on? I'm swedish and would like to learn about Rugby so I can understand what to bet on when you post.

[harry_rag]

No problem @four-leaf but can I just check if you know much about spread betting first? That is, do you have a reasonable understanding of spread betting but aren’t sure how these bets work or you don’t really know much about spread betting?

[harry_rag]

3 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Can you explain in some more simplier way so I can understand what you had your bet on? I'm swedish and would like to learn about Rugby so I can understand what to bet on when you post.

Hopefully this will clarify it to some extent. I sold Ulster hotshots (the 4 named players) at 58 in a bet where each try scored by any of those players is worth 25 points. Ulster scored 4 tries but, fortunately for me, none were scored by any of the hotshots so the bet made up at 0 and I won 58 x my stake. Had all 4 tries been scored by any of the hotshots the make up would have been 100 (4 x 25) and I'd have lost 42 x my stake (100 - the sell price of 58).

Imagine my stake was £1 per point, the bet works like this. The bookie gives me £58 which I can keep if the players fail to score any tries (as was the case on this occasion). For every try one of the players scores I have to give the bookie £25 back. 1 try means I still win £33 and 2 means I still win £8. 3 tries = 75 points so I lose £17, 4 tries and I lose £42 as stated above. And so on. On a bad night, the hotshots might score 8 tries between them for a total of 200 points, costing me £142.

Hopefully that makes it all perfectly clear! 

The difference to fixed odds betting (where you typically either lose x or win y) is that the more right you are, the more you win and the more wrong you are, the more you lose.

[four-leaf]

10 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Hopefully this will clarify it to some extent. I sold Ulster hotshots (the 4 named players) at 58 in a bet where each try scored by any of those players is worth 25 points. Ulster scored 4 tries but, fortunately for me, none were scored by any of the hotshots so the bet made up at 0 and I won 58 x my stake. Had all 4 tries been scored by any of the hotshots the make up would have been 100 (4 x 25) and I'd have lost 42 x my stake (100 - the sell price of 58).

Imagine my stake was £1 per point, the bet works like this. The bookie gives me £58 which I can keep if the players fail to score any tries (as was the case on this occasion). For every try one of the players scores I have to give the bookie £25 back. 1 try means I still win £33 and 2 means I still win £8. 3 tries = 75 points so I lose £17, 4 tries and I lose £42 as stated above. And so on. On a bad night, the hotshots might score 8 tries between them for a total of 200 points, costing me £142.

Hopefully that makes it all perfectly clear! 

The difference to fixed odds betting (where you typically either lose x or win y) is that the more right you are, the more you win and the more wrong you are, the more you lose.

Wow that sounds both good and bad.. I have been spreadbetting since 2007 when I started betting on NFL and kept going on NCAA  american college football and NHL and NBA. That's where my experience lies.

[harry_rag]

On 10/16/2021 at 10:24 PM, four-leaf said:

I have been spreadbetting since 2007 when I started betting on NFL and kept going on NCAA  american college football and NHL and NBA. That's where my experience lies.

I nearly asked this as the time and, as I'm still unsure, I might as well ask now! When you say spread betting are we talking about the same thing, the sort of bets offered by Spreadex and Sporting Index where how much you win or lose is unknown until after the event? The reason I ask is because I know the term "points spread" is used in those sports but still refers to fixed odds bets on the outcome of the game (winning margin or total points). A spread bet might be if team x wins by 10 points you win 5 times your stake, 25 points and you win 20 times your stake but if they lost by 10 points you'd lose 15 times stake. A fixed odds bet on the spread would be you win stake x odds if the bet goes over the line and lose your stake if it goes under (possibly with a push if it lands on the line). So 2 or 3 possible outcomes as opposed to essentially infinite.

[harry_rag]

Leicester v Bath: Sell Leicester hotshots for 1 point at 55 with SPIN (Guy Porter, Matt Scott, Nemani Nadolo, Jack van Poortvliet)

SX go 58-62 but with Nic Dolly instead of van Poortvliet. Nic Dolly is co-favourite in the anytime tryscorer market at 5/6, along with Nadolo, while van Poortvliet is 5/2 at best.

Crunching various numbers I get a true value of 49 for the SX quartet so 58 looks high but you have got two odds on tryscorers running against you. I would only value the SPIN hotshots at 39, 44 if you want a "top book" value.

All of which could be so much stuff and nonsense of course, but my experience suggests it's worth taking a chance that those players combine for less than 3 tries tonight.