Fatwomble

@harry_ragI've been thinking about the above over the past few weeks. Its interesting you use the player minutes to determine an expected number of tries. I would have thought the fixed odds try-scorer market might be preferred? Given you already convert player try minutes to expected tries. Plus there is more liquidity in the fixed-odds market vs the spread market? Would the fixed-odds market therefore reflect a "truer" value? I did start putting a model together in lockdown but life got in the way. I'll have to give it another go when I can find the time. If my model can obtain half the success of your previous bets I'd be chuffed!

Thanks for getting back to me. Your posts on this forum have been very insightful - particularly on spread betting. I'll try not to wait another 8 years before my next post! ?

I make that a 13 point win. May I ask how you are calculating your true value? Do you use the fixed odds market or are you modelling expected tries another way?