Melbourne Cup (Tuesday 4am)

[Darran]

The Melbourne Cup is a race I look forward to every year and although this year will be very different with no public allowed on track it looks a strong renewal. I have gone through all 24 runners in the race and hopefully I can point you the direction of the winner as I did last year when Vow And Declare landed the spoils. There are all sorts of different place terms being offered by the bookies including one going 7 places. Also if betting with Bet365 make sure you find the UK version of the market if betting e/w so you get 4 places as in Australia they only bet to 3 places so if you bet on the Australian market you will only get 3 places.

 

Anthony Van Dyck - My feeling was the draw beat him in the Caulfield Cup and it was a huge run to finish 2nd to Verry Elleegant. Has the class to win, but Makybe Diva was the last to carry 58kg or more to victory and the trip is an unknown. Does have a decent enough draw in 3 though and Hugh should be able to sit further forward than he did at Caulfield.

 

Avilius - 6th in the Caulfield Cup and didn't get the clearest of runs, but his Melbourne form isn't great which is a concern as is the fact his best form has come on wet tracks. The trip is an unknown as well as in 2018 he was badly interfered with and was basically pulled up.

 

Vow And Declare - Great win in this last year, but he's nowhere near the same level as he was going into the race in 2019. Has to carry 5kgs more as well and I can't have him at all.

 

Master Of Reality - Finished 2nd in this last year, but was demoted to 4th after causing interference. Clearly his season has been all about this contest and he ran well to win at Down Royal last time. He was able to sit in 2nd place off a slow tempo and showed a good turn of foot in 2019 and from 11 he should be able to do a similar thing, but you would have to think that he would need to have found some improvement to actually win.

 

Sir Dragonet - Landed the Cox Plate in great style for his new connections having become really frustrating over here. On the back of that he would have an obvious chance here, but there has to be a slight concern about the trip and an even bigger one about the fast ground.

 

Twilight Payment - Finished 11th in this last year. Won two of his 4 races since lockdown and was 3rd in the Irish St Leger last time. Struggle to see him improving enough at the age of 8 to go 10 places better.

 

Verry Elleegant - Arguably the best horse in Australia at the moment and was tough in winning the Caulfield Cup last time. The distance is an unknown, but the bigger worry for me is that she is a much better horse on a wet track and given the forecast in Melbourne we are going to be looking at a quick track. If it had been wet I would have been interested, but the ground is enough to put me off her.

 

Mustajeer - Won last year's Ebor and I thought he had a good chance in this last year after a good run in the Caulfield Cup, but he duly finished 2nd last. Ran OK in the Caulfield Cup when 8th this time around, but an unlikely winner for me.

 

Stratum Albion - Willie Mullins has a good record in this race although this horse wouldn't be an obvious one for me. A Ces winner would suggest to me he wouldn't have enough pace for this especially if they go a slow pace. I would imagine there are better handicapped runners in the race.

 

Dashing Willoughby - I thought the Caulfield Cup was being used a as a prep for this, but he then went and finished last after setting the pace. Impossible to fancy on the back of that and every chance from 19 he will have to use a bit of speed to get to the front.

 

Finche - In 2018 he finished 4th and last year he was 7th although actually finished closer to the winner. He hasn't had a great deal of luck in the race before and his form continues to be strong. He was a very close 3rd to Verry Eleegant in the Turnbull and then finished 5th in the Caulfield Cup when not getting the best of runs. It is easy to see him running well again although I'm not sure he has quite got it in him to win.

 

Prince Of Arran - Given how good he is in Australia I am surprised connections don't keep him there as his form goes to another level in Oz. He was 3rd in 2018 and then was bumped up to 2nd last year. The last two years he has had to have two starts so he can get a run in the race and this year he has just had the one so he comes into the race fresher than normal. That one run was a storming effort as well to finish 4th in the Caulfield Cup and he was a big eye catcher. He was the only horse to break 12 seconds for the final 200m. Stall 1 isn't ideal, but Jamie Kah is riding out of her skin at the moment and he has a big chance of at least hitting the frame again.

 

Surprise Baby - For an Australian horse he has been given a slightly unusual prep given he has only run twice over 1600m when 2nd and over 2000m in the Turnbull when 9th. His trainer had said he would have been happy to run him 1st up so it was clearly the plan to have a light prep. I think he would have won last year if he had been drawn better as he was flying down the outside to finish 5th. The Turnbull run wasn't as bad as the finishing position suggests as he was held up a long way back and didn't get a clear run until the final 200m. He is another strong contender for me.

 

King Of Leogrance - Was a very impressive winner of the Adelaide Cup in March, but was 2nd to Oceanex when odds on here in May. Didn't show much when 1st up in the Turnbull, but solid enough 3rd in the Geelong Cup when he raced in the worst going on the inside. That form was given a boost by Ashrun on Saturday. Can run well, but hard to think he will be good enough.

 

Russian Camelot - Was 3rd in Cox Plate when going off favourite and probably paid for being close to a fast pace. He looked very good when winning the SA Derby back in May over 2500m and you would imagine he will stay the trip in this. He is a northern hemisphere 3yo and they have done well in the race in recent years, but I would fancy him more if the ground had been soft.

 

Steel Prince - Won the Geelong Cup last time and finished 9th in this last year. Clearly in good heart this prep and arguably coming into this race in better shape than last year. Stall 21 does him no favours though and that is enough to put me off.

 

The Chosen One - Was only 17th in this last year, but put up a superb performance in the Caulfield Cup last time to finish 3rd. If he repeats that then he can be in with a chance, but he isn't the most consistent horse and will be doing well to go 16 places better.

 

Ashrun - Ran in the Geelong Cup to try and get his way into the field for this and had a very tough run on the outside to finish 4th. That meant he then had to run in Hotham in Saturday to try and get himself a place in the line up. He did so by coming from last to first to just get up on the line. We know he stays and he seems well handicapped, but to have two tough runs in quick succession ahead of this will make things tricky as well his stinking draw in 24.

 

Warning - Was a bit disappointing in the Caulfield Cup, but then I think the track wasn't the most suitable for him and it didn't allow this strong stayer to get going until late on. He landed last year's VRC Derby and the 3200m shouldn't be an issue. He looked a real eye-catcher in the Turnbull Stakes when staying on nicely into 6th place. Was over 2L behind Russian Camelot in the SA Derby and only gets 0.5kg here, but he is a much bigger price than that one and is drawn better. Think he isn't out of it at a big price.

 

Etah James - Won the Sydney Cup back in April and ran a solid race to finish 4th in the Monee Valley Cup last time, but she just doesn't look good enough.

 

Tiger Moth - Only had 4 starts, but looks a promising horse. Was 3rd on his only start last year, and then won on his first start of this season at Leopardstown in June. Followed that up with a 2nd in the Irish Derby and then bolted up to win a G3 in September. He does have the same sort of profile as Rekindling, but this is surely going to be a tough ask on just his 5th start especially as he has been drawn in 23. Having said that if any jockey can get him to win from out there it is Kerrin McEvoy.

 

Oceanex - Landed the Andrew Ramsden back in May to book her place in the line-up. Was 3rd in the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but ran well given how wide she had to travel. Not sure she has the class for this, but she shouldn't disgrace herself.

 

Miami Bound - Landed the VRC Oaks last year and has a very good record at Flemington. She also won the Moonee Valley Cup last time, but she doesn't really look good enough even with her low weight.

 

Persan - Had some campaign given he didn't lose his maiden tag until May and he has won 5 more since including the Bart Cummings last time. You would think this is likely to be a step too far, but he could hardly be in better form.

 

Verdict - So the first thing to do is to whittle the 24 down to a shortlist of possible winners. Mine has the following 9 Anthony Van Dyck, Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Finch, Prince Of Arran, Surprise Baby, Russian Camelot, Warning and Tiger Moth. The 2nd thing to do is to make that a shortlist of 4, hopefully in the correct order. Surprise Baby is going to be the main selection as I thought he ran a huge race last year from a poor draw. He has a better draw this year and his prep has been built around this contest. If his trainer has got things right he has to go close. Prince Of Arran is my next pick. Basically ignore anything he does in the UK as he is a much different horse in Australia and improves at least a stone I reckon. His 4th in the Caulfield Cup was really good and I just can't see him finishing out of the frame. He could easily finally get his head in front as well. Finch goes in as number 3. Just behind Prince Of Arran at Caulfield and he continues to be ultra consistent. He has a lovely draw and if he gets some luck in running he will be there at the finish. Finally I am going to stick in Warning who looks best of those at a big price. His doesn't have a great deal to find with Russian Camelot and he will be much more suited to Flemington than Cauflield. He was an eye-catcher in the Turnbull and looks set to thrive over 3200m.

 

1. Surprise Baby (Best price 8/1)
2.  Prince Of Arran (Best price 10/1)
3.  Finche (Best price 16/1)
4.  Warning (Best price 33/1)

[Darran]

Melbourne weather can be very changeable, but it looks like it’s going to be hot and sunny over the next couple of days and Flemington drains really well. They will water to keep it at a good 4 but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a good 3 come Cup time.

[richard-westwood]

Let's have a go ...lol ....Anthony van dyke is the class horse but has to overcome a high weight ...too high for me .....very elegant was always seeming to hold ..avd above and given a bit more restraint I cant see any reason why he couldn't be equally effective over this extra distance and definately has the class 9/1 ew 7 places looks value indeed

Plenty of others in with chances but I'll chance an outsider ...king of leogrance who ran on well over 12f last time and gets in off a featherweight here ....33/1 7places looks fair value 

Verry elegant 10pts ew 9/1 7places sky

King of leogrance 10pt ew 33/1 7places sky 

Edited November 1, 2020 by richard-westwood

[Zilzalian]

I will stick my beak in and suggest a sporting small stakes bet Ashrun and Finche 2 singles and a rfc. Kudos and fair play to Darran he has obviously put quite a bit of work into this post and it is very helpful/useful.

[LeMale]

Yea, i'll second that, your knowledge on racing down under and your write-ups are incredible, so thanks very much. 

My 2 pennies worth :- 

Master Of Reality - Did well in this last year (demoted from 2nd to 4th) and at these odds (currently 20-1) my kind of ew value play. Does look a tougher race this year mind. 

Dashing Willoughby - Just can't run as bad as it did in the Caulfield Cup, can it? Current 100-1 odds and not drawn well, but this is my Hell Mary outsider.  ?

* Just to make it clear, i have had a small bet on my selections but, if i was you, i'd follow Darren's tips! 

[calva decoy]

Other than Rosehill before Hong Kong Racing & replays of the Melbourne Cup know nothing about or haven't really watched any Australian Racing , have set Sky Sports Racing on Record & blindly picked horse out in each race mainly down to Sire's I recognise & see how I get on !

0020- Twain's Express

100- Seerees

140- Midterm e/way

220- Ultimate Edition 

255- Viral e/way

400- Prince Of Arran 10/1 e/way 3rd 15/2

500- Harbour Views

540- Wild Vixen. 3rd 13/2

615- Exhilarates 1st 11/2

Fair play to the winner of the big race making all from start to finish ?

Is Australian racing clean like here in UK or are trainers allowed to use Lasics etc like in the U.S. ?

 

 

 

 

Edited November 3, 2020 by calva decoy
Updated results

[richard-westwood]

8 hours ago, LeMale said:

Yea, i'll second that, your knowledge on racing down under and your write-ups are incredible, so thanks very much. 

My 2 pennies worth :- 

Master Of Reality - Did well in this last year (demoted from 2nd to 4th) and at these odds (currently 20-1) my kind of ew value play. Does look a tougher race this year mind. 

Dashing Willoughby - Just can't run as bad as it did in the Caulfield Cup, can it? Current 100-1 odds and not drawn well, but this is my Hell Mary outsider.  ?

* Just to make it clear, i have had a small bet on my selections but, if i was you, i'd follow Darren's tips! 

Have to admit I've been looking at master of reality 3x today ....hes come right back to peak form recently and has proven himself in race .....good ew odds I think I'll have a nibble .....good luck everyone 

[kroni]

gone forcouple of e-w bets,  Prince Of Arran 9/1 skybet 7 places, if he runs his race will be in the mix, and i'll take a chance on Mustajeer 80/1 also skybet 7places, not seen the best of him recently but hope the longer trip help him bounce back

[Flakey Dove]

Lovely write up. I think Finche will have learned a lot from his experience in this race last year, wasn't too far away and has ran three fine races this time round, makes me think that he has been aimed at this race, taken 19.5 on the Betfair Exchange and will back him in the 4 place market too nearer the off. Good luck to all.

[Tedthewolf]

Good luck guys here is my 3 e/w all with skybet 7places 

FINCH 16/1

MASTER OF REALITY 18/1

AVILLUS 40/1

Edited November 2, 2020 by Tedthewolf

[Flakey Dove]

Hope you are right about Finche?

[richard-westwood]

On 11/1/2020 at 8:03 PM, richard-westwood said:

Let's have a go ...lol ....Anthony van dyke is the class horse but has to overcome a high weight ...too high for me .....very elegant was always seeming to hold ..avd above and given a bit more restraint I cant see any reason why he couldn't be equally effective over this extra distance and definately has the class 9/1 ew 7 places looks value indeed

Plenty of others in with chances but I'll chance an outsider ...king of leogrance who ran on well over 12f last time and gets in off a featherweight here ....33/1 7places looks fair value 

Verry elegant 10pts ew 9/1 7places sky

King of leogrance 10pt ew 33/1 7places sky 

Very elegant sneaked in 7th .....shame about Anthony van dyke being euthanized...you dont expect that on the flat 

[Villa Chris]

52 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Very elegant sneaked in 7th .....shame about Anthony van dyke being euthanized...you dont expect that on the flat 

Very sad indeed. It’s the seventh fatality in the last eight runnings of the Melbourne cup. 

[calva decoy]

19 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

Very sad indeed. It’s the seventh fatality in the last eight runnings of the Melbourne cup. 

Always a shame mate but more horses die being turned out than at the races itself .

[Villa Chris]

9 minutes ago, calva decoy said:

Always a shame mate but more horses die being turned out than at the races itself .

Not denying that , but the fatality rate for that race in particular in recent years isn’t good reading. 

Edited November 3, 2020 by Villa Chris

[Flakey Dove]

I think that 7 have been put down in the last 8 runnings of the race, high for a flat race RIP AVD.