Racing Chat Tuesday 13th October

[Villa Chris]

Hereford 2.58 

Nightfly 11/2

[Villa Chris]

Two non runners in the race so now only a field of 4. Will be hit hard with rule 4 if wins, which is frustrating. 

[yossa6133]

Flight Deck (1.00 Hunt) foiled a Gary Moore gamble last time at Newbury and looked a good horse. Ground was pretty testing that day so I do wonder if it will be soft enough today but looks on decent mark on chase debut. Opened 7/2 last night, drifted out to 9/2 but back in to 3/1 now, which is a good sign with this yard.

 

Pretty well backed but ran a shocker, not jumping fluently out paced and well beaten when falling at the last.

Edited October 13, 2020 by yossa6133

[The Equaliser]

Mainly focussed on Wolverhampton today where there is less competition for my top jocks/apprentices

One tiny Trixie for 50p =  £2 = poss return of £51.24 (miserly)

6.00 Wolv Kenstone (£1.20 at 4/1) 7/2 Trixie
6.30 wolv Beau Geste 6/4 Yukkk
8.30 Wolv Right Action (£1.20 at 5/1) 4/1 Trixie

Other bets:

12.15 Her Munstead Moonshine (CL) 20p win at 50/1 = £10.20 Shouldn't pose a threat but I've backed CL's other runner in the 1.15 and I hate to miss out on a winner

1.15 Her Yeats Mardy (CL) 70p win at 16/1= £11.90

6.00 Wolv Air Of York (LM) 70p win at 12/1

6.30 Wolv Khazaf (LM) 70p win at 16/1

7.00 Wolv Kuwait Shield 70p win at 10/1 (Tapeta debit though?)

7.30 Wolv Wind In My Sail (HD) 45p at 20/1

8.00 Wolv Inaam (HD) £1.20 at 17/2 (I just keep spending money on Hollie)

8.30 Wolv May Song (MG) 70p win at 8/1

£2 on multiples

£7.75 stakes on singles

Total stakes £9.75

May look at other venues later where the competition among my top in form jockeys/apprentices is a lot hotter

Good luck to all

 

 

 

[richard-westwood]

830 wolv

Sermon  277

May song 277

Right action  274

Right action is popular today ....has run well on all weather in past but not for 2 years .....so I'll take top 2 rated and take him on 

Sermon 5pts win 4/1 willh

May song 5pts win 8/1 willh

6x1pt rev forecasts top3 

 

[Bathtime For Rupert]

All Bet365

5.30 Wolverhampton - 1pt e/w Dame Denali @ 25/1 - Weak race so will take a chance on this one who was only just denied under similar conditions at Lingfield earlier on in its career off this mark and although flopped two starts back, showed some promise last time out and is clearly best on the all-weather and at least stays which isn't guaranteed for some of these.

 

5.45 Newcastle - 2pts win Batraan @ 7/2 - Well related type and bred to get further so always likely to be a shade outpaced over a speedy 5f at York on debut. Kept on well late on though and should find this more suitable now with that experience under its belt. Form worked out too so a big chance here.

 

6.15 Newcastle - 1pt win Dutch Light @ 15/2 - Nice pedigree and goes handicapping off a lowly mark after two fair runs in novices. Seemed to find the 7f stretch it here last time so the drop back in trip should suit (several of this one's half-siblings are speedy) and should be more to come in this company.

 

6.45 Newcastle - 2pts win Humbert @ 15/2 -  Well handicapped and all of this one's wins have come over a mile on the all-weather. 5lbs lower than when a close second here only a few starts ago and has had excuses on turf lately so looks primed to bounce back this evening.

 

7.00 Wolverhampton - 2pts win Kuwait Shield @ 13/2

Being supported today having been weak in the market last time and that's interesting for a horse dropping in the handicap and who has shown form recently. Bred to go well on the all-weather and whilst it was on fibresand, was only narrowly denied on its only previous attempt on artificial surfaces.

[richard-westwood]

5 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

830 wolv

Sermon  277

May song 277

Right action  274

Right action is popular today ....has run well on all weather in past but not for 2 years .....so I'll take top 2 rated and take him on 

Sermon 5pts win 4/1 willh

May song 5pts win 8/1 willh

6x1pt rev forecasts top3 

 

Sermon wins ....9pts profit 

[MCLARKE]

12 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

Mainly focussed on Wolverhampton today where there is less competition for my top jocks/apprentices

One tiny Trixie for 50p =  £2 = poss return of £51.24 (miserly)

6.00 Wolv Kenstone (£1.20 at 4/1) 7/2 Trixie
6.30 wolv Beau Geste 6/4 Yukkk
8.30 Wolv Right Action (£1.20 at 5/1) 4/1 Trixie

 

 

 

 

Is Holly Doyle one of your top jocks ? I find her quite weak in the finish of a race. In fact I had 5 fancied horses today, all ridden by female jockeys and they all lost. Time for me to look at a few statistics I think. Logic suggests that they will be weaker in a finish than their male counterparts but perhaps it's just me being sexist !

[The Equaliser]

10 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

Is Holly Doyle one of your top jocks ? I find her quite weak in the finish of a race. In fact I had 5 fancied horses today, all ridden by female jockeys and they all lost. Time for me to look at a few statistics I think. Logic suggests that they will be weaker in a finish than their male counterparts but perhaps it's just me being sexist !

Well, MC, she is 4th in the Jockey title championship with 80 wins and a 15% strike rate.  I believe that she is about £41 down on level stakes profit.  She let me down badly with the favourite Beau Geste yesterday and came storming through too late on Wind In My Sail later on in the day.  I am using these top jocks/apprentices from the point of view that they will get the best rides from trainers/requests from owners. Just trying to narrow down the awful number of runners that we see each day in trying to find winners.

[MCLARKE]

Yes, I think I owe the ladies an apology. The top 3 ladies this season in terms of number of runners are all showing excellent returns. 

Hollie Doyle has an AE of 1.14, Nicola Currie 1.33 and Josephine Gordon 1.22.

Having said that the lowest AE in the top 100 is Hayley Turner at 0.56. The best is LT McAteer at 2.87. Must admit I'd never heard of him before I did this analysis.