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IPL - Indian Premier League 2021


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This get's started today as the Mumbai Indians look to defend the title. I like the finalists of last year this season, The Chennai Super Kings. They look a decent price to be there or thereabouts once more.

4pts Chennai Super Kings to win IPL 13/2 paddypower 

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Mumbai start their season against their main rivals. Despite it being close last season and both making the finals, Mumbai do have a really good recent record againstt Chennai and you'd probably think that they can see this match through but the better bet for me is in the "Most 6s" market where I can't see psat Mumbai Indians. The likes of Pollard, Pandya and Sharma all love hitting sixes.

5pts Mumbai Indians (Most sixes) Vs Chennai Super Kings 4/5 paddypower

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Little bit bitter-sweet yesterday as although the 6s bet loses, Chennai Super Kings beat the defending champions which is great for the outright pick. Today's match is Delhi Capitals vs Kings Punjab. I like Delhi here. I think the bowling attack is better and I think despite the price not being the sexiest, it's probably about right for me to take them. I like Maxwell for Kings and I think he has a chance of being top batsman today so that's my second bet.

6pts Delhi Capitals to beat Kings Punjab 4/6 bet365
1.5pts Maxwell kings top batsman 6/1 paddypower

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Todays match is Sunrisers Hyderabad Vs Royal Challengers Bangalore. Another match that looks quite a hard one to call when you look at the past head-2-heads between the two. Both have shared the spoils in recent seasons and the odds say it all this time around, too.

I like the 11/10 you can get on RCB though. I just think with Finch coming in to open and a number 2/3 of Kohli and ABDV you have some real solid strength in there. Both of these sides have fantastic front order and if any lose early wickets they could be in trouble. On the whole, I think the value lies with RCB.

5pts Royal Challengers Bangalore to beat Sunrisers Hyderabad 11/10 bet365

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Another mad match. This league is so action packed it seems like every match goes down to the wire. Sunrisers really crapped the bed in this match. Bairstow had it there in his hands and after he went, what a collapse. Some hillarious cricket and almost slapstick cricket at times with players injured coming on to bad unable to walk. Luckily for me RCB get the win and Kolhi finally gets off to a winning start after losing the first 5 last season. +5.5pts

Todays match sees Rajasthan Royals taking on Chennai Super Kings. The outright pick Chennai look for their 2nd win in a row here and with RR missing Stokes and Butler today I feel like they should really do just that.

5.5pts Chennai Super Kings to beat Rajasthan Royals 8/11 paddypower

IPL +1.5pts

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A loser yesterday thanks to the awful bowling from Chennai at the last. When Jordan is hittnig 20-25 in one over against you, you know it's bad.

Mumbai Indians take on Kolkata today and I think Kolkata look a spot of value but we've not seen them yet and i would rather go for a bigger price punt on Andre Russell. Built for Twenty20 I think he can quite easily be top batsman for Kolkata and it wouldn't suprise me to see him take man of the match if he leads his team to a win.

2pts A.Russell - Kolkata top batsman 9/2 willhill
1pt A.Russell - Man of the match 8/1 bet365


IPL -4pts

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No joy yesterday. Todays match is Kings X1 Punjab taking on Royal Challengers Bangalore. I still can't believe that Kings Punjab needed just 1 run from 3 balls and couldn't get over the line. Then getting just 2 in a super over. Needless to say I like RCB here. They've beaten Kings in the last 4 in a row and I absolutely love the mix of there top 4 in Finch, Kohli, ABDV with the mix of youth with Paddikal. 

5.5pts RCB to beat Kings Punjab 8/11 betfair

IPL -7pts

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Ugh, feels like a coin flip every match now. I'm going to take Chennai to win today, I think they were quite unlucky in the last match and their bowling let them down late into the match to make the chase so hard. They've scored well in both matches and I think they should bounce back here.

5pts Chennai Super Kings to beat Delhi Capitals 4/5 bet365
1pt S.Watson Man Of The Match 11/1 paddypower

IPL -12.5pts

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Well, this is going well. Just back the opposite of my picks, guys. :D 

today I'm taking Hyderabad to beat Kolkata. The front pairing of Bairstow and Warner just seem to be too strong right now and I'm also taking Bairstow to be top batsman today. I'm going to continue with the IPL and hope to turn it around. I'm being stubborn here.

6pts Hyderabad to beat Kolkata 5/6 coral
2pts J.Bairstow top batsman for Hyderabad 5/2 paddypower

IPL -18.5

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1 hour ago, Fader said:

Well, this is going well. Just back the opposite of my picks, guys. :D 

today I'm taking Hyderabad to beat Kolkata. The front pairing of Bairstow and Warner just seem to be too strong right now and I'm also taking Bairstow to be top batsman today. I'm going to continue with the IPL and hope to turn it around. I'm being stubborn here.

6pts Hyderabad to beat Kolkata 5/6 coral
2pts J.Bairstow top batsman for Hyderabad 5/2 paddypower

IPL -18.5

definitely will...... stick to the same as your picks😝😝 good luck x

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Time for the comeback in this thread and Delhi Capitals to beat Sunrisers today is my pick. We've seen in the past and already this term that if Warner and Bairstow go early, there really isn't much else in the top order. Delhi have looked good and Shaw has played a good tournament so far. Him, Dhawan, Pant and Iyer really have the quality here.

5pts Delhi Capitals to beat Sunrisers Hyderabad 4/5 paddypower
2pts Delhi to win and both teams to hit 160+ 5/1 paddypower

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On 9/29/2020 at 4:17 PM, Fader said:

Time for the comeback in this thread and Delhi Capitals to beat Sunrisers today is my pick. We've seen in the past and already this term that if Warner and Bairstow go early, there really isn't much else in the top order. Delhi have looked good and Shaw has played a good tournament so far. Him, Dhawan, Pant and Iyer really have the quality here.

5pts Delhi Capitals to beat Sunrisers Hyderabad 4/5 paddypower
2pts Delhi to win and both teams to hit 160+ 5/1 paddypower

how and from where do you download the data?

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  • 5 months later...

Personally I've found plenty of opportunity in laying the favourite and greening in-play.

Will look to document it this year and keep track but IPL's volume of punters screams overreactions and chasers to me so lots of opportunity if you go against the trend.

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  • Fader changed the title to IPL - Indian Premier League 2021

Just looking in the outright market with abit of value and despite the price not being huge, I'll go with Kohli's men. They have the favourites today and so there may be a better price later but I want to get in, incase they pull off the upset. Any team with Kolhi, ABDV and Maxwell in it, in a T20 team, is going to be dangerous

2pts E/W Royal Challengers Bangalore to win IPL 13/2 boylesports

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4pts Kohli top RCB batsman 3/1 paddypower 

I'm surprised that paddy are boosting this because there is talk that Kohli is going to be opening for RCB and if that's the case, than 3/1 is quite a big price for a player who is favourite to be top batsman in the whole event. 

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As a learning exercise I created some data visualizations for the 2020 IPL. There are 3 dashboards that will help you determine winners and losers in this IPL season. These dashboards are all free to use, so enjoy. I have not embedded them into any web pages, but will post the link.

(1) dashboard is a scorecard analysis, with worms, over ranges and runs, and ball by ball analysis, with breakdown by batsman. You can just choose any match from the dropdown (https://public.tableau.com/profile/neilvanasselt#!/vizhome/IPLcricketMatchPerformanceScorecards1/Dashboard1)

 

(2) Another dashboard compares the teams by various metrics. Wickets, runs per over, 6's hit etc etc. You can also set your own over ranges and see how teams did in these ranges, compared to each other (https://public.tableau.com/profile/neilvanasselt#!/vizhome/IPLBATTINGMETRICSRankedbyover/Dashboard32). Use the filter by team to identify how a team did in each over.

 

(3) A third dashboard shows how teams did in various situations. "Win toss bat first and win", "Bat 1st but score only 161 runs or less" etc etc etc. In the last IPL in the round robin, a team batting first and scoring 161 runs or less only won 3 times in 18 games. Again the dashboard is interactive and can be found here; https://public.tableau.com/profile/neilvanasselt#!/vizhome/cricket_IPLKeyMatchKPIs/Dashboard2 

 

So the problem with this IPL is that it is being played in India and not UAE. SO the venue data will not be that relevant. One thing to notice is that in the last IPL , batting first was a good thing early in the tournament. As wickets because od and stale, batting second was the key.

 

Today's IPL game is between the Rajasthan and Kings XI.

In last years tournament the RR beat the Kings XI in the first game they played in a high scoring game ( match #9 they chased down 223). 

In the second game played (match 50), they again chased down a high total of 186, losing just 3 wickets.  From a batting point of view the RR look too strong for this Kings XI side.

The RR were a decent side last tournament, but are probably starting games too aggressively. Like a boxer punching himself out early, they don't hold enough back for the final 5 overs. Their balance is not optimal. RR made an interesting decision not to retain Steve Smith, but Stokes and Butler are rock solid, top performers. For me, a very dangerous floater in this side is David Miller, who hardly played last tournament. I think he will be in isolation for this first game, as I'm pretty sure he played for SA against Pakistan a few days ago. But he is coming back into some hard hitting form. I am surprised that they spent so much on Chris Morris. Morris played for RCB last year, and did OK, but not great. However, 4 overseas players of  Buttler, Stokes, Morris and  Miller could be a potent combination. 

For me the Kings XI are not a well balance side. Not sure what possessed them to spend 14 crore on Jhey Richardson. They do have power upfront, but I don't think they can win here. Can Galyle still carry the load, or are the eyes  and reactions fading?

 If the Kings bat first I would expect RR to chase their total down easily. To see Kings XI as favorites here, has me scratching my head. RR all the way today, and coasting if they chase. They have too much batting firepower.

 

 

Edited by neilovan
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On 4/9/2021 at 11:37 AM, Fader said:

Just looking in the outright market with abit of value and despite the price not being huge, I'll go with Kohli's men. They have the favourites today and so there may be a better price later but I want to get in, incase they pull off the upset. Any team with Kolhi, ABDV and Maxwell in it, in a T20 team, is going to be dangerous

2pts E/W Royal Challengers Bangalore to win IPL 13/2 boylesports

The biggest thing that hurt RCB last IPL was the over reliance on Kohli and de Villiers. Paddikal had a great 1st season,  but Finch was a blowout. On Morris they spent a fortune and they got little in return.

The numbers for RCB in the middle overs just don't lie.

RCB boundary percentage in range overs 8-14 (7 overs in total), they ranked bottom in this category 5 times and 3rd worst 3 times.  Kohli and de Villers were digging them out of trouble, and regrouping too often. In the last IPL, from overs 6-14 RCB were in the bottom 3 teams for strike rate (9 overs or 45% of the game) in every over. You can't be champions with these numbers.

I think they have spent very well getting Glen Maxwell into the side. He gives them the middle over punch they were missing, and takes the pressure off Kohli and de Villiers.  He turns them into potential champions.

Also, I think that for a team like RCB, it is better to NOT have your two best batsman batting at the same time. Rather have Kohli controlling upfront and middle, Maxwell miiddle and end, and de Villiers floating as requiired, A guy like Rashid Khan loves bowling at two superstars at the same time. His bowling is then at it's most effective..

Edited by neilovan
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1 hour ago, neilovan said:

The biggest thing that hurt RCB last IPL was the over reliance on Kohli and de Villiers. Paddikal had a great 1st season,  but Finch was a blowout. On Morris they spent a fortune and they got little in return.

The numbers for RCB in the middle overs just don't lie.

RCB boundary percentage in range overs 8-14 (7 overs in total), they ranked bottom in this category 5 times and 3rd worst 3 times.  Kohli and de Villers were digging them out of trouble, and regrouping too often. In the last IPL, from overs 6-14 RCB were in the bottom 3 teams for strike rate (9 overs or 45% of the game) in every over. You can't be champions with these numbers.

I think they have spent very well getting Glen Maxwell into the side. He gives them the middle over punch they were missing, and takes the pressure off Kohli and de Villiers.  He turns them into potential champions.

Also, I think that for a team like RCB, it is better to NOT have your two best batsman batting at the same time. Rather have Kohli controlling upfront and middle, Maxwell miiddle and end, and de Villiers floating as requiired, A guy like Rashid Khan loves bowling at two superstars at the same time. His bowling is then at it's most effective..

Good info mate. A good start for rcb, but they made hard work of it. 

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Based on what I perceived to be, a quite poor showing by Mumbai Indians, I think there is value on Kolkata, today. I'll also take Morgan to show up today and produce a display that "fingers crossed" drive Kolkata to victory.

4pts Kolkata to beat Mumbai Indians 5/4 paddypower
2pts Morgan top Kolkata batsman 9/2 paddypower

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