Worlds (inc Qualifiers)

[Torque]

On 8/3/2020 at 9:48 AM, notanotherdonkey said:

So why did you Quote Gilbert has won the last 4 matches head to head.so in theory you where betting on him again to win the match.Was actually a good match and Malflin deserved to win.

h2h is only ever part of the puzzle @notanotherdonkey Sometimes a positive h2h will be a reason to make a bet and sometimes a negative h2h will be reason to make a bet - most simplistically if a punter believes that the h2h has skewed the odds away from where they should be.

[Torque]

On 8/3/2020 at 7:07 PM, notanotherdonkey said:

Is that not what the forum is for at the end of the day if you can not handle criticism and being positive what is the use of a forum...

I don't think anybody on here who is reasonable has an issue with criticism or critiquing of posted picks @notanotherdonkey as long as it's done in the right way. For example if you'd countered @Fader by mentioning your thoughts on the h2h and how you thought it might impact the match before it had started that might have been better received.

[Torque]

Anyway @notanotherdonkey I've no axe to grind with you. IMO this forum works best when there are different points of view posted which can then be used as a basis to decide what way you want to bet. Like a lot of things in life, betting is all just opinions really and what one person can use in support of a bet is the same thing someone else can use to decide against it 

[Fader]

agreed.

We have matches starting at 1pm today. I'll be leaving the Hawkins match alone as that looks to be an already decided match but the Higgins Vs Maflin match looks interesting. Maflin got a very out-of-sorts Gilbert in round 1 but he took full advantage and scored very well. I think he can keep things close against Higgins and I'm also going to take Maflin to hit the highest break. Maflin won the last h2h between the two and hit 4 centuries against Gilbert. We haven't seen a century from Higgins yet. Infact 74 was his highest break against Stevens.

6pts K.Maflin (+4.5 frames) to beat J.Higgins 4/6 betfred
2.5pts K.Maflin highest break 7/5 betfred

[litost]

cheers Fader thanks for your work and nevermind the monkeys !!

 

What your tought on the thai fellon vs Selby ....   .. "jester from leicester" looks way far from his top  .. actually brown should have won that match smthg like 10-4 - not an expert so probably overstatement yet jordan was all over floor somehwat ... pressure or smthg ... but thai fella is cool as a handkerchief as we say here ... 

 

and are not both Trump and Ronnie odds overinflated .. this oriental guys with their inscrutable faces for westerners can be  a pain in the ar$e .... but im not expert .. maybe no stands public benefits them as well ..feel more "not so far far away "    ... sort of like training and so on ...

 

 

Cheers and keep it up broder !!

Edited August 5, 2020 by litost

[litost]

also the new rising start jamie clarke looks overpriced vs mcgill that had trouble to finish it up vs lisowsky .... 

he was cool all along vs top notch competition like allen ...  double of both pays over 10´s and im gonna put a mortgage job on it just in case ... with earnings ill flee tp some isolated island be4 they lock us all  down again !! ....

 

nope just kiding probably experience its a huge bonus at this game ... and prices are about right but just wonder couse the guy looks classy ...

 

best regards!!

[Fader]

Thanks Litost, 

I think I will probably be looking at Saengkham on a handicap atleast as Selby isn't the Selby of old atall and although Saengkham had it easy in the last round, he played really well and didn't miss much atall. Like you say, the composure was pretty impressive.

I would probably say similar with Bingtao. He's playing well but he gave alot of chances early on and Trump will punish those. Ding beat Ronnie last time they met which will help him mentally for sure. He's just beat Mark King so it's hard to know where he is at currently but if he turns up who knows.

Looking at tonight, I'm going to take Bingham to beat Williams. I think Williams form is hard to gauge after beating Alan McManus and in Bingham we will truly see where he is at. Bingham is certainly playing well though and has just beat a player bang in form in Ash Carty. That could have easily been a different kind of match on another day. Bingham is alot better in the longer format. He's already beaten Williams in January when he won the Masters. 

5pts S.Bingham to beat M.Williams 4/5 bet365
4pts S.Bingham (-2.5 frames) to beat M.Williams 6/4 bet365
 

[Fader]

Very strange session lastnight. Bingham misses the black to go 3-1 up, williams wins the re-spot black to go 2-2 and then Williams turns into a machine for 3 frames but at 5-3 I still think Bingham comes through that.

Looking at this mornings matches Maflin continues his great form against Higgins with a lead and Saengkham takes on Selby. I have a feeling it's going to be a different Saengkham this morning and I also feel like Selby will play better. With that in mind, I still think it's worth taking Saengkham on the handicap.

In the 2.30 matches after looking at head-2-heads and recent form and such I'm going to take Judd on a handicap. I think the fact Bingtao lost so many frames back-to-back and the fact he looked so nervous, I don't think he just forgets that and if Judd gets going early it could easily turn into a big defecit session and one hard to come back from.

6pts N.Saengkham (+3.5 frames) to beat M.Selby 5/6 bet365
5pts J.Trump (-4.5 frames) to beat Y.Bingtao 4/5 betfred
1pt accy - Trump -4.5 / Maflin to beat Higgins / Bingham to beat Williams / Saengkham to beat Selby 30/1 betfair

[Fader]

Maflin comes through to beat Higgins. I thought he may bottle it once it got to 10-10 but he played really well and you would have to say he looks likely to make a semi-final now. I can't see the winner of McGill and Jamie Clarke. We shall see how they play. Maflin more than covers the handicap but ofcourse didn't make the highest break with Higgins hitting a 147.

This morning sees the conclusion of Williams Vs Bingham. I'll be hoping for Bingham to start well and pull away in that. Judd vs Bingtao also continues. Trump was plain awful yesterday and was lucky to get it to 5-3 down. If he plays to his normal standard I still think the handicap is achievable but will need to win the first session 3-1 atleast.

In the afternoon matches Selby Vs Saengkham is locked at 8-8. I'd like to think Saengkham can hit the hanidcap there as he only needs to get to 10 frames and it's been quite an even match. There is still a unlikely outsiders chance of the accy ofcourse.

I have McGill to win his quarter and I'm not too keen to get involved in the McGill vs Clarke match. McGill played really well against Lisowski until abit of nerves got to him. Clarkes performance was inspired and to beat anybody who has hit 5 centuries against you and 3 50+ breaks in the 8 frames they've won, it's got to be pretty special. However, most of the time when a player wins a match like that, the next match the level drops and so the only bet I would consider is how many frames we will see.

Ding plays Ronnie tonight. What a match that will be. Ding can finally play Ronnie now without his head going and he's beaten him in the last match and beaten him at the bigges stage. It does worry me though that he's only just beat Mark King whilst Ronnie is destroying Un-Nooh. I'll go with both to make 2 centuries+ I think it's a given that Ronnie does that and if Ding wants to stay in this game he will need to do it too.

2pts R O'Sullivan Vs D.Junhui - both players to make 2+ centuries 7/4 betfair

[Fader]

With many matches tied it looks like the majority of ties are very close to call. I've left the Robertson match alone as I have him on an outright pick. Same with McGill as if he wins that, he wil have just one more to win. That's enough interest in them. The Wilson Vs Gould match is practically over and the final match sees Ding and Ronnie locked at 8-8. The century bet is just one away with Ding having 2 and Ronnie with 1 but I think there is value in Ding to win the match.

4pts D.Junhui to beat R O'Sullivan 7/4 willhill

[Foo_Fighter]

4 hours ago, Fader said:

With many matches tied it looks like the majority of ties are very close to call. I've left the Robertson match alone as I have him on an outright pick. Same with McGill as if he wins that, he wil have just one more to win. That's enough interest in them. The Wilson Vs Gould match is practically over and the final match sees Ding and Ronnie locked at 8-8. The century bet is just one away with Ding having 2 and Ronnie with 1 but I think there is value in Ding to win the match.

4pts D.Junhui to beat R O'Sullivan 7/4 willhill

Have you noticed that Ronnie tends to play better in the daytime and a bit worse at night? Don't know why but I think it's true. Having said that, Ronnie remains the best player in the world and Ding should certainly raise his game a lot if he wants to prevail tonight. 

[Fader]

8 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Have you noticed that Ronnie tends to play better in the daytime and a bit worse at night? Don't know why but I think it's true. Having said that, Ronnie remains the best player in the world and Ding should certainly raise his game a lot if he wants to prevail tonight. 

He's a strange one to work out. He acts like he just doesn't care what happens but who knows if that is really the case. I'm just glad he got that 2nd century before winning the match. Ding had his chances as will the other players but I fancy him to beat Williams easy enough. Hopefully Robertson gives him a proper game in the Semi-finals.

[Fader]

Monday morning then and the start of the Quarter-finals. Everybody starts their matches today, which is going to be abit harsh on McGill, who literally won a matter of hours ago and in a match that went down to the wire. In the morning matches we have ;

J.Trump Vs K.Wilson
M.Selby Vs N.Robertson

I think there is some value in Kyren. Bingtao got a really good lead against Trump but he let him back in time and time again and I feel like Kyren wouldn't do that. He has a good head-2-head with Trump with Trump winning 1 more match but the frames being 55-52 to Trump.I would have to say that Kyren is playing better despite him only playing one match. He scored 2 centuries and 10 50+ breaks when beating Gould. Trump hit 1 century and 8 50+ breaks. Perhaps we'll see Trump get better each round but I expected more from him against Bingtao and I'm going to follow Kyren here. In the other match, I do like Robertson. Selby is playing some good stuff again but Neil has a decent recent h2h and i think he'll come through to meet Ronnie in a Semi-final.

In the afternoon matches we have :

K.Maflin Vs A.McGill
M.Williams vs R.O'Sullivan

I really feel like that marathon win for McGill is going to flatten him (atleast early on) and I can see a quick start for Kurt. If that does happen then I'm not sure he will let McGill get back in like Clarke did. I have McGill to win the quarter but I think Maflin wins this one. In the other match, Ronnie is playing in 2nd or 3rd gear and still has the quality to win here and I see him beating Williams with a few to spare. It was 13-6 when they met in the 2012 Worlds and I would not be surprised to see a similar scoreline

2.5pts K.Wilson to beat J.Trump 11/5 betfred
5pts N.Robertson to beat M.Selby 3/5 betfair
1pt accy K.Wilson / N.Roberton / K.Maflin / O'Sullivan -3.5 frames 11/1 boylesports 
 

[Fader]

In the above accy, i've priced it up at best odds of 11/1 but you can get 10/1 with Paddy and if one of the legs let you down, you get money back upto £10

[Fader]

On 7/31/2020 at 12:00 PM, Fader said:

So the main event got started today at 10am. I'm alittle late here as I would have been interested in the highest break bet with Tom Ford atleast but hey ho! 

Taking a look at the outright bets first, I have Murphy already in this event at 28/1 and that puts me off backing him again at just 18s but I still think he has a cracking chance here. He is playing really well. He will have a hard task in the 2nd round when he faces Neil Robertson though and I will take a couple of points on him. I suppose as cover, but he's been saying all the right things on social media also and I think he is another with a good chance.

The bigger prices I like are Gilbert and Maguire. Maguire looked sharp the last time we saw him, when he took full advantage of a wildcard spot at the Tour Championship only to go and win it. He beat Trump, Robertson and Allen there and he is a nice price here. Gilbert, last time we saw him also was scoring well as he went out on a deciding leg to Murphy. 

Two huge prices I'm taking to win their groups are Un-Nooh and McGill. Both playing well and I'm not sure we'll see the best of Ronnie this tournament.

2pts N.Robertson to win Worlds 13/2 betfair
1pt E/W D. Gilbert to win Worlds 33/1 betfred
1pt E/W S.Maguire to win Worlds 28/1 bet365 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

1pt T Un-Nooh to win Quarter 3 28/1 Betfair
1pt A.McGill to win Quarter 18/1 888sport

Well the outright picks may have been pretty pants for this event but atleast McGill hits an 18/1. Never should have doubted him against Maflin

We're into the Semi-finals today and are now at one-table setup. At 1pm today Kyren Wilson will kick-off his match against Ant McGill and then tonight at 7pm the first session Ronnie Vs Selby will commence. Both matches are the first to 17.

I'm going to take Kyren on the handicap here. I've not had a great success with the handicap betting in this tournament but I watched abit of Kyren against Trump and he was awesome. McGill's safety game was abit too good for Maflin but when he has Kyren potting them from the places he was against Trump perhaps it will be a different story. In the other match I'm going to take Selby to beat Ronnie. So many times people play Ronnie instead of the match and Mark Williams really fell for that in the Quarter-finals. He took a big lead and he should have won that match. I tihnk Selby is playing well enough right now to win this one and set up a refreshing Kyren Wilson Vs Mark Selby final.

6pts K.Wilson (-3.5 frames) to beat A.McGill 4/6 bet365
4pts M.Selby to beat R.O'Sullivan 13/8 betfair

WC Bets  +11pts
2020  +146.25pts

[mcsilks]

Selby on the outright at 100/30 with PP.

I don't quite understand why O'Sullivan is such a big favourite against Selby.

Selby's form is dramatically improving, while O'Sullivan's is mis-firing by his own admission.

Selby has won both of their previous meetings in Sheffield and has something of a stranglehold over Ronnie. 

If Selby were to beat Ronnie, then I cannot see anything other than him powering his way to a fourth World title.

 

 

[Foo_Fighter]

I happen to disagree with both of you Fader & mcsilks. I believe Ronnie O'Sullivan is still the best snooker player in the world. Nobody else is able to control the cue ball the way Ronnie does. That's why he's such a prolific break-builder. He may not be the best safety player or the best long potter, but when it comes to break building he's so elite... This encounter is very interesting because on one hand, O'Sullivan is much more talented than Selby, but on the other, Selby is mentally stronger than Ronnie. If it is a really close match then it all comes down to mental fortitude, an area where Selby clearly has the upper hand. But I wouldn't count out the possibility of Ronnie winning relatively comfortably. My prediction is O'Sullivan wins this battle. 

[Torque]

1 hour ago, mcsilks said:

Selby on the outright at 100/30 with PP.

I don't quite understand why O'Sullivan is such a big favourite against Selby.

Selby's form is dramatically improving, while O'Sullivan's is mis-firing by his own admission.

Selby has won both of their previous meetings in Sheffield and has something of a stranglehold over Ronnie. 

If Selby were to beat Ronnie, then I cannot see anything other than him powering his way to a fourth World title.

 

 

With O'Sullivan it pays to take everything he says with a shovel full of salt, never mind a pinch 

[Torque]

20 minutes ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I happen to disagree with both of you Fader & mcsilks. I believe Ronnie O'Sullivan is still the best snooker player in the world. Nobody else is able to control the cue ball the way Ronnie does. That's why he's such a prolific break-builder. He may not be the best safety player or the best long potter, but when it comes to break building he's so elite... This encounter is very interesting because on one hand, O'Sullivan is much more talented than Selby, but on the other, Selby is mentally stronger than Ronnie. If it is a really close match then it all comes down to mental fortitude, an area where Selby clearly has the upper hand. But I wouldn't count out the possibility of Ronnie winning relatively comfortably. My prediction is O'Sullivan wins this battle. 

Summed up perfectly I reckon so for me the bet is Selby. He may not win, but he's the bet at the prices taking into account all the pros and cons.

[Foo_Fighter]

22 minutes ago, Torque said:

Summed up perfectly I reckon so for me the bet is Selby. He may not win, but he's the bet at the prices taking into account all the pros and cons.

I guess it depends on which angle you look at it. If I were to make a projection, I'd say tonight's session will be awfully close. I'd give Selby the edge because as I've said Ronnie tends to perform better in the daytime, but on the other hand Selby tends to be a slow starter which kind of evens it out for me. Tomorrow afternoon we'll probably see Ronnie taking a good or even a significant advantage over Selby. And as usual, after that, Selby will embrace his underdog status and try to pull off an upset win. 

[Fader]

Interesting one on this also is that Selby Vs Ronnie in the Worlds. 2 matches both won by Mark Selby. We all know that Selby is a better player the longer the format. I don't believe any of the stories he doesn't practrise asmuch and he doesn't care. That's nonsense, but i do believe him when he says "lump on Selby" I believe he thinks he will lose against Selby. If Selby plays like he did against Robbo and if Ronnie plays like he did against Mark then Selby wins.

That alone makes it a value bet on Selby for this match.

[mcsilks]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I happen to disagree with both of you Fader & mcsilks. I believe Ronnie O'Sullivan is still the best snooker player in the world. Nobody else is able to control the cue ball the way Ronnie does. That's why he's such a prolific break-builder. He may not be the best safety player or the best long potter, but when it comes to break building he's so elite... This encounter is very interesting because on one hand, O'Sullivan is much more talented than Selby, but on the other, Selby is mentally stronger than Ronnie. If it is a really close match then it all comes down to mental fortitude, an area where Selby clearly has the upper hand. But I wouldn't count out the possibility of Ronnie winning relatively comfortably. My prediction is O'Sullivan wins this battle. 

 

I am in no doubt that Ronnie O'Sullivan is the best player in the world on his day, but he lacks consistency. His recent record at the crucible isn't anything to write home about. This is the furthest he has got since losing in the final in 2014 against Selby.

I would love to see him overcome Selby, but I believe Selby is a bad match up for Ronnie and should Selby bring anything close to his A game; I think he will play his rather predictable dogged style whereby he feeds off Ronnie's long game mistakes and wins with frames to spare.

[Foo_Fighter]

31 minutes ago, mcsilks said:

 

I am in no doubt that Ronnie O'Sullivan is the best player in the world on his day, but he lacks consistency. His recent record at the crucible isn't anything to write home about. This is the furthest he has got since losing in the final in 2014 against Selby.

I would love to see him overcome Selby, but I believe Selby is a bad match up for Ronnie and should Selby bring anything close to his A game; I think he will play his rather predictable dogged style whereby he feeds off Ronnie's long game mistakes and wins with frames to spare.

Everyone seems to be critical of Ronnie's recent record at the Crucible and his h2h with Selby. I wonder why nobody has mentioned that O'Sullivan is chasing Hendry here. Claiming his sixth World Championship title this year and winning at least one more in the next few years is more than doable, don't you think? Anyway, we'll see what happens. 

[Torque]

2 hours ago, Foo_Fighter said:

I guess it depends on which angle you look at it. If I were to make a projection, I'd say tonight's session will be awfully close. I'd give Selby the edge because as I've said Ronnie tends to perform better in the daytime, but on the other hand Selby tends to be a slow starter which kind of evens it out for me. Tomorrow afternoon we'll probably see Ronnie taking a good or even a significant advantage over Selby. And as usual, after that, Selby will embrace his underdog status and try to pull off an upset win. 

Could definitely pan out like that. I wouldn't put it past Selby to beat O'Sullivan even if he's four or five frames behind and O'Sullivan only needs one. He's done it before - more than once IIRC

[Torque]

1 hour ago, Foo_Fighter said:

Everyone seems to be critical of Ronnie's recent record at the Crucible and his h2h with Selby. I wonder why nobody has mentioned that O'Sullivan is chasing Hendry here. Claiming his sixth World Championship title this year and winning at least one more in the next few years is more than doable, don't you think? Anyway, we'll see what happens. 

I'm not so sure. The fact he's only won 5 in nearly 30 years tells a story - should have won at least ten by now - and it gets harder with each passing year.

[Torque]

I can't see it being over quickly and I've already said that Selby is the value, so I'm going to take two boosted prices with PP that reflect those thoughts. The first is Selby to make 3 or more century breaks @ 3.25. The frame line is 29.5, so if there's at least thirty frames then this should have a chance, particularly as Selby has shown he's got centuries in him at this tournament - not least the one he scored in the decider in the last round. The second is Selby to win 17-15, 17-14 or 17-13 @ 6.50. If Selby is to win it's most likely to be by a narrow margin. I'm putting a point on each so one winner needed for profit. Fingers crossed one of them hits 

[Fader]

good luck all. Good to see some numbers in the Snooker forum 

[Torque]

Early days but if Selby carries on like this he's going to get hammered.

[Torque]

6 hours ago, Torque said:

With O'Sullivan it pays to take everything he says with a shovel full of salt, never mind a pinch 

Perfect example of this in these first few frames. After beating Williams last night O'Sullivan was saying how bad his long game was and how if the object ball was more than three feet away he was never going to pot it... So far tonight he hasn't missed a long pot!!!

[Torque]

5-3 down and Selby must be feeling like he's just won that session. To play so badly and be only two behind is classic Selby. I'd say my correct score punt still has a chance, but I can't see the centuries bet coming in. Just feels like every frame Selby wins going forward is going to be scrappy.