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Fader

Worlds (inc Qualifiers)

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The World Championship qualifiers get started today. Over the course of a week, well find the 16 qualifiers into the main draw. Some players will start at "round 1" so to speak and they will have to win 4 matches in order to qualify. Others will only need to win 1 or 2 matches to qualify. It''s very much a seeded qualification tournament.

2pts L.Honghao to qualify from Group 3 7/1 sportingbet
2pts M.White to qualify from Group 11 6/1 betvictor
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1pt M.Georgiou to Qualify from Group 13 8/1 betfred
1pt J.Cahill to qualify from Group 7 12/1 betfred
1pt S.Baird to qualify from Group 7 16/1 betfred
1pt F.O'Brien to qualify from Group 15 16/1 sportingbet
1pt A.Carty to qualify from Group 13 28/1 betfred 
1pt Vahedi to qualify from Group 14 33/1 betfair
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0.5pts K.Filipiak to qualify from Group 10 80/1 betfred
0.5pts R.Lawler to qualify from Group 15 100/1 unibet
0.5pts H.Chandler to qualify from Group 12 33/1 betvictor

Snooker 2020 bets +135.75pts

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Day 2 of the qualifiers get underway in about 2 hours. By the end of day we'll know the 2nd round line-up of qualification. One of the first matches is 50 year old Barry Pinches against 18 year old Dean Young. Young got to the last 32 of the Snooker Shootout prior to the lock-down but that's very much a coin flip type tournament. Barry is seasoned veteran of the game. He qualified from Q-School and has only won 3 matches since then but it's in better company then the matches Young has played. Barry will know he needs to win this match as if he loses it, it could very much mean another drop off of the tour at end of season.

The one one I like is Boiko to beat Thor Leong. Thor Chan looks bang out of his depth since qualifying from Q-School and although he isn't going to get that kind of quality when playing Boiko, the confidence must be low and we've already seen some shock results 

2pts B.Pinches (-2.5 frames) to beat D.Young 15/8 betfair
2pts J.Boiko to beat T.Leong 7/4 betfair

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Pinches wins 6-0 but Boiko played abit too attacking and was picked off. +1.75pts

I like the look of Duane Jones to beat Joe O'Connor today. Jones has already played and beaten Keogan with ease. He managed 3 50+ breaks in that match and if O'Connor isn't hitting form then this could easily go down to the wire.

2pts D.Jones to beat J.O'Connor 7/4 bet365

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Jones started well but fell away really. The one i like today is in the later games and it's Jamie Clarke to beat a Mitchell Mann. Mann has already won in the previous round but despite him winning easily 6-2 he only managed a 52 break. Clarke is a better player and the odds look decent enough on him

5pts J.Clarke to beat M.Mann 13/10 willhill

WC bets -0.25pts
2020 snooker bets +135.50pts

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Clarke wins with ease. Happy to see Honghao come back from 5-1 down to win 6-5 too. Keeps himself in with a chance with just 2 more matches to win now.

WC bets +6.25pts
2020 snooker bets +142pts

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Quite a few big priced outsiders today whom have a good chance in my eyes.

Taylor is flying right now. Every frame barring the first he hit a 50+ break. Selt will be coming into this fresh. Wu Yize is another hitting the balls well and has beaten good players and is in full momentum. McManus in my eyes isn't a better player than Robbie Williams nowadays. Finally White has every chance against an out-of-form Seaengkham

4pts M.White to beat N.Saengkham 15/8 willhill
4pts A.Taylor to beat M.Selt 7/4 bet365
2.5pts W.Yize to beat A.McManus 13/5 sportingbet

 

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White 3-1 up, should have been 4-1 up missing the black. 4-3 up too but ofcourse loses when the business end hits. Taylor didn't start playing until 5-0 down and Yize probably not good enough. I'm taking Wakelin today to beat Gould. Gould beat a vastly out of his depth Amiri 6-0 but he only managed one break over 50. Wakelin was playing well last time we saw him in the Championship League. 

I'll take Joyce to beat Walden. Beat him last time they played and I think they're pretty closely matched. 1 point on an accy with Pengfei.

4pts C.Wakelin to beat M.Gould 5/4 betvictor
4pts M.Joyce to beat R.Walden 13/8 betfred
1pt accy Wakelin, Joyce & Pengfei 8/1 betfred

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Not the best couple of days. Still cannot understand how Wakelin managed to lose to Gould. We're now at the point where all the players need is one more win to make it to the Worlds, in Sheffield. I have a few needing to win that elusive match for a payout, which are Ferg O'Brien and Carty. Baird tomorrow. I'll be leaving those 3 alone but 3 I do like today are the following:

Ursenbacher is playing some real good stuff again recently. It was impressive how he beat Gary Wilson, who is a brilliant player. Slessor has impressed me more than O'Donnell and I am taking McManus on again and this time with Heathcote.

5pts A.Ursenbacher to beat A.Higginson 4/5 bet365
5pts E.Slessor to beat M.O'Donnell 11/10 bet365
3pts L.Heathcote to beat A.McManus 2/1 bet365
1pt Treble of above 3 11/1 bet365

 

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51 minutes ago, Fader said:

Not the best couple of days. Still cannot understand how Wakelin managed to lose to Gould. We're now at the point where all the players need is one more win to make it to the Worlds, in Sheffield. I have a few needing to win that elusive match for a payout, which are Ferg O'Brien and Carty. Baird tomorrow. I'll be leaving those 3 alone but 3 I do like today are the following:

Ursenbacher is playing some real good stuff again recently. It was impressive how he beat Gary Wilson, who is a brilliant player. Slessor has impressed me more than O'Donnell and I am taking McManus on again and this time with Heathcote.

5pts A.Ursenbacher to beat A.Higginson 4/5 bet365
5pts E.Slessor to beat M.O'Donnell 11/10 bet365
3pts L.Heathcote to beat A.McManus 2/1 bet365
1pt Treble of above 3 11/1 bet365

 

it's just one of those days where all bets turn upside down. Both were winning in the lead at first. It was shocking. Good luck today. Things will turn around again. Thanks for the effort. 

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Ursenbacher & Slessor win. Heathcote, the moment probably got to him. I'm going to add the points for the outright at the end of play tomorrow but very happy to see Ash Carty qualify 10-8 (9-4 up and let Milkins get back to 9-8) A 28/1 winner on Carty. 

Ferg O'Brien 16/1 loses 10-9 in a decider against Wenbo. Pretty much everything went against him in that match and the balls ran perfect for Wenbo. Typical!

WC Bets  -7.25
2020  +128.00

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A few tempting prices today but I'll just stick with the one and that's Matthew Stevens to beat Ricky Walden. They've not played against eachother for 2 years but Stevens won that in a deciding frame. Stevens made four 50+ breaks in his win over Preece. He's already beaten Gilbert, Murphy and Bingham this year and got to the Quarter finals of the UK Championship at the back end of 2019. Walden beat Mark Joyce and hit 2 centuries and a 50+ break. However, his season hasn't been the best and we've not seen him play his best since the English Open at the back end of last year.

I'll chance a point treble. I like the chances of Burns and Stevens. Highfield the one that's likely to fail the most. Highfield has beaten Un-Nooh everytime they've played though and although you would fancy Un-Nooh with a "first to 10" I'm chancing Highfield to make Sheffield for the 2nd time in his career.

5pts M.Stevens to beat R.Walden 11/10 willhill
1pt accy - Highfield, Burns, Stevens 19/1 willhill

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Stevens wins 10-5. At one point, I thought Highfield had a chance at 7-7. Meanwhile Burns was in the lead against Mark KIng. Highfield lost 10-7 though and so the treble is out of the question. Baird just didn't turn up atall. Everytime he was at the table he balls'ed it up (so to speak)

+3.25pts then for tonight and thanks to the 28/1 on Carty into some profit pre-worlds. The main event gets going on Friday.

WC Bets  +13.50
2020  +148.75

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So the main event got started today at 10am. I'm alittle late here as I would have been interested in the highest break bet with Tom Ford atleast but hey ho! 

Taking a look at the outright bets first, I have Murphy already in this event at 28/1 and that puts me off backing him again at just 18s but I still think he has a cracking chance here. He is playing really well. He will have a hard task in the 2nd round when he faces Neil Robertson though and I will take a couple of points on him. I suppose as cover, but he's been saying all the right things on social media also and I think he is another with a good chance.

The bigger prices I like are Gilbert and Maguire. Maguire looked sharp the last time we saw him, when he took full advantage of a wildcard spot at the Tour Championship only to go and win it. He beat Trump, Robertson and Allen there and he is a nice price here. Gilbert, last time we saw him also was scoring well as he went out on a deciding leg to Murphy. 

Two huge prices I'm taking to win their groups are Un-Nooh and McGill. Both playing well and I'm not sure we'll see the best of Ronnie this tournament.

2pts N.Robertson to win Worlds 13/2 betfair
1pt E/W D. Gilbert to win Worlds 33/1 betfred
1pt E/W S.Maguire to win Worlds 28/1 bet365 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

1pt T Un-Nooh to win Quarter 3 28/1 Betfair
1pt A.McGill to win Quarter 18/1 888sport

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David Gilbert takes on Kurt Maflin tomorrow morning and although I like Maflin as a player and he’s well up for this event, I have to side with Gilbert, who I think can go far again in this Worlds. 

I’m going to take Gilbert on a handicap. He’s beaten Maflin in all four head-to-heads and in a first to 10 i think he can beat him with a few to spare 

5pts D.Gilbert (-3.5 frames) vs K.Maflin 6/5

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Tomorrow's action :

10am - L.Wenbo Vs N.Robertson
10am - Y.Bingtao Vs E.Slessor

we've got the conclusion of Higgins Vs Stevens in the afternoon and the start of Ronnie against Un-Nooh and then in the evening back to Robertson Vs Wenbo and the conclusion of Gilbert Vs Maflin.

I'm going to have a look at the afternoon matches tomorrow but for the morning matches I am going to go with Slessor on the handicap. The Coronavirus hasn't come at a good time for Bingtao who was bang in form prior to it but didn't look very good at the returning Tour championship. I think Slessor should start well as he has had some practice already with qualifying. I'll take him on the handicap.

I like Robertson on the handicap tomorrow but i'm not convinced on the prices so for now I'll leave that one with the outright on Robbo.

6pts E.Slessor (+3.5 frames) to beat Y.Bingtao 5/6 paddypower
1pt E.Slessor to beat Y.Bingtao 10-7 19/1 betfair


 

 

 

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23 hours ago, Fader said:

David Gilbert takes on Kurt Maflin tomorrow morning and although I like Maflin as a player and he’s well up for this event, I have to side with Gilbert, who I think can go far again in this Worlds. 

I’m going to take Gilbert on a handicap. He’s beaten Maflin in all four head-to-heads and in a first to 10 i think he can beat him with a few to spare 

5pts D.Gilbert (-3.5 frames) vs K.Maflin 6/5

Sometimes you have to way up the probability and just because Gilbert has won the last 4 matches between the players the law of averages should be  in Maflin  favour as he has to win sometime.

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On 8/1/2020 at 11:03 PM, notanotherdonkey said:

Sometimes you have to way up the probability and just because Gilbert has won the last 4 matches between the players the law of averages should be  in Maflin  favour as he has to win sometime.

I don't bet only on past history. If only it were that simple.

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McGill takes on Lisowski this morning and Ronnie will finish off Un-Nooh in the 10am matches. I'm going to take McGill to win this one. I've gone for McGill to win his group and although that is going to be a hard task, he is playing so well right now and has the luxury of momentum that it would suprise me if Lisowski came into this flying from the off.

McGill has won the last 2 between these two and dropped just 2 frames in the 2 matches he has had to qualify for Sheffield. 

5pts A.McGill to beat J.Lisowski 6/5 bet365

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33 minutes ago, Fader said:

I don't bet only on past history. If only it were that simple.

So why did you Quote Gilbert has won the last 4 matches head to head.so in theory you where betting on him again to win the match.Was actually a good match and Malflin deserved to win.

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2 hours ago, notanotherdonkey said:

So why did you Quote Gilbert has won the last 4 matches head to head.so in theory you where betting on him again to win the match.Was actually a good match and Malflin deserved to win.

because it's a fact. We like to have some reasoning on the forum which is something that I should have mentioned to you in the darts posts. Reasoning can't always be in depth but simply saying somebody is going to win isn't enough. Gilbert wasted many chances and wasn't good enough on the day. He wins after going 8-7 up and you change your opinion? seems abit of an odd comment.

Many things go into why I choose a particular bet and I'm not going to go deep into it on every preview but for somebody who simply says "a to beat b" to complain to me about reasoning it quite comical.

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19 minutes ago, Fader said:

because it's a fact. We like to have some reasoning on the forum which is something that I should have mentioned to you in the darts posts. Reasoning can't always be in depth but simply saying somebody is going to win isn't enough. Gilbert wasted many chances and wasn't good enough on the day. He wins after going 8-7 up and you change your opinion? seems abit of an odd comment.

Many things go into why I choose a particular bet and I'm not going to go deep into it on every preview but for somebody who simply says "a to beat b" to complain to me about reasoning it quite comical.

That is fine,I never changed my comment and i let people make there own minds up what they want to do without any reasoning when I put a bet up.I understand time is a big factor and that is why I do not post every bet I have on the forum.Good Luck

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Slessor continues his match against Bingtao at 2.30pm. Very unlikely that Bingtao is going to let that lead slip. Slessor has shown he is a debutante really having multiple break downs in and amongst the balls. In the other match it's the start of Shaun Murphy's campaign against Noppon Saengkham. Murphy has been playing well for a while now after that one disastrous season where he was more interested in Golf. 

I'm going to take Murphy on the century market today. Already in 2020 Murphy has made a Semi-final of the Masters, German Masters and Players Championships and won the Welsh Open. Even in his last defeat to Mark Allen he scored 6 centuries in the 8 frames he won when losing 9-8.

Saengkham beat Michael White and Eden Sharav. It's going to be a step up in quality here for him.

5pts S.Murphy to have 2 or more centuries evens paddypower
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
2pts S.Murphy to have 3 or more centuries 13/2 paddypower
1pt S.Murphy to have 4 or more centuries 20/1 paddypower

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Just now, notanotherdonkey said:

That is fine,I never changed my comment and i let people make there own minds up what they want to do without any reasoning when I put a bet up.I understand time is a big factor and that is why I do not post every bet I have on the forum.Good Luck

I've not changed my comment either. The forum is all about people making their own minds up. I don't make people follow me. It's upto them. Time is a big factor for all of us. I certainly wouldn't be criticizing other peoples picks when I have no reasoning on my own.

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Keep up the predictions Fader. Don't be deterred by some idiots who seem to take pleasure in nitpicking at your posts.

In response to your last ridiculous post donkey; is it really the prerequisite for posting on a forum for you to expect criticism?

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Blimey! Murphy was awful. How he even got one century playing like that i do not know. Constant chances and stupid errors. He had no concentration atall. Thankfully McGill did the business and even more of a surprise that after that awful start, Slessor got it back to 10-7 so the handicap was covered.

In the afternoon match we have Gould Vs Maguire. I already have an outright bet on Maguire and so I'm hoping he can hit the ground running but he will face a hard task in Gould. Gould looks to be playing really well now and Maguire will not have it all his own way. I had a thought earlier that this kind of environment suits Gould. He has come out and said that he really struggles with social media criticism and when you look back, Gould has performed best at the Championship League with no crowds. Makes sense he performs better now with no crowds at the crucible.

Gould has won the last four in a row between these two. The last match was only 3 months prior to lockdown. However, Maguire is in form himself and I think he will win this one. I am tempted to bet on breaks here but I'm going to take a punt on :

2pts S.Maguire to pot the first ball, most century breaks & win 4/1 paddypower

WC Bets  +10.50
2020  +145.75

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11 hours ago, mcsilks said:

Keep up the predictions Fader. Don't be deterred by some idiots who seem to take pleasure in nitpicking at your posts.

In response to your last ridiculous post donkey; is it really the prerequisite for posting on a forum for you to expect criticism?

appreciate this and also thanks to Torque and Vikki for their support. 

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On 8/1/2020 at 11:03 PM, notanotherdonkey said:

Sometimes you have to way up the probability and just because Gilbert has won the last 4 matches between the players the law of averages should be  in Maflin  favour as he has to win sometime.

That's called gambler's fallacy @notanotherdonkey If you make bets on the basis that a player is due a win you're likely to find you lose more than you win.

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