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BillyHills

Racing Chat - Friday June 19th (Ascot Day 4)

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5 meetings (and some good football)

Treble up today at 4/5, 8/11 and 1/2 (9/2) so will have another shot!

125 Nm: Haqeeqy 4/9 bet365
310 Nm: Annie De Vega 7/4 bet365
515 Gp: Keats 4/6 bet365

13/2 Treble

Other bets

245 T: For The Trees EW 11/2 bet365
420 Nm: Tulip Fields 11/8 bet365
535 Ln: Intrepid Italian 1/1 bet365
805 Ln: Carvelas EW 123/1 bet365

:ok

 

 

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Today's all aged handicap selections.....

Ling

4.25 Kath's Lustre 11/2, Buriann 7/2
8.05 Lauberhorn Rocket
4/1, Becky Sharp 33/1

Newm

12.50 Rose Hip, 11/2 Autumn Flight 15/2
2.35 Nihaall 11/2 , Nirodha 33/1
3.45 Peace Prevails 4/1, Blowing Dixie 13/2
4.20 Tribal Craft 5/2, Point In Time 7/2

prices bet365 bog

running totals -  stakes 25.00 P/L +5.83

Edited by Trotter

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1.15 Ascot - 1pt win Dancin Inthestreet @ 8/1 Bet365

Another fav I'll let win at that price in a handicap in a big field. Looks smart but I don't think he's beaten any superstars in his wins so far so will take him on with one that I'm fairly confident will be winning off its mark before long.

Ran well over 7f on debut when 2nd, beating Angel Power into 3rd (that one now rated 85), backed that up with a win at Lingfield and a decent effort in a good race at Wolverhampton - beaten 3 3/4l into 5th but those that beat him are now rated 97, 87, 92 and 97 so it was a good race and this horse gets to run off 83 today - whilst out of the handicap, I still think he's capable having run a stormer on return when an unlucky loser, finding no sort of run. Stays 5f well so this stiff test will suit and looks progressive. 

1.50 Ascot - 1pt win Setarhe @ 15/2 Bet365

Probably stupid to take on O'Brien with another horse with the right profile for this, after Battleground's win yesterday but if the ground remains quite easy, this filly by Zoffany out of a Green Desert mare might not want it too soft so will take her on.

Hard to weigh up a lot of form in this race but Setarhe represents the trainer who won this race last year and overcame a poor start to win pretty well in the end on debut at Newmarket. Showed a good turn of foot there and came from last to first at a time when it was difficult to make up ground at the track, so I think the performance can be upgraded. Should handle soft conditions being by Footstepsinthesand and should progress for that experience.

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win The Lir Jet @ 5/1 Bet365

Tough race again as little to go off - the favourite has a huge chance on form clearly with that debut win reading well based on this week but again, I don't want to take short prices on horses who haven't run under these conditions yet as it has to prove it handles soft - Exceed and Excel horses often prefer a sounder surface so I'm going to take it on with The Lir Jet who won well on debut at Yarmouth, forging clear in the final furlong to see the trip out very well indeed. Michael Bell's horses usually come on for their debuts too so should be more to come and should handle conditions today - his sire actually won this race on soft a few years back so I'm hoping this one can follow in its hoofsteps today!

3.00 Ascot - 2pts win Morando @ 7/1 Bet365

Taking on yet another favourite here - Elarqam shapes as if 1m4f could suit but still yet to try it and by Frankel out of a miler, it's not a given, especially on soft in a Group 2. Yet again I'd sooner chance a horse that will relish conditions and that's Morando. May not be the best in the race but when there are certain question marks over the first three in the betting, and more rain forecast before racing, this one will love soft ground, stays well, has excellent form in the book when getting his conditions and I can see his price collapsing if the rain materialises. 

3.35 Ascot - 1pt win Mums Tipple @ 16/1 Bet365

Tricky race to call this one so chancing Mums Tipple at a big price. Obviously made a big impression at York last year, winning by 11l but failed to match that in two runs since. Far too early to write off though as was lame after the Middle Park and just isn't a miler in my opinion so I'm not too concerned about the Guineas. This track will suit better too and unlike some of these, I can't see an issue with the ground given its pedigree and action. 

4.10 Ascot - 2pts win Berkshire Rocco @ 10/3 Bet365

I backed this one in the Derby trial when English King was too speedy for him but the pair were miles clear and this horse is one I think is certain to get the trip, which others still have to prove. Lots of stamina in his family, is an uncomplicated type with good form in the book. Sure to be there or thereabouts and I think he'll take the beating.

4.40 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w Scarlet Dragon @ 28/1 Bet365

Another tricky race but Scarlet Dragon is a seasoned performer who has been Group class in the past and is off a good mark here. Key to this one is getting it to settle but the drop back to a spot on 1m4f trip is a big plus and hopefully the decent sized field will too. If switching off, conditions are perfect and could outrun the odds.

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Todays handicaps -

Ascot                 4.40    Indianapolis                  10/1ew
Ascot                 4.40    Getchagetchagetcha    33/1ew
Newmarket      12.50    Colonel Frank                   5/2
Newmarket      12.50    Shamshon                    10/1ew
Newmarket        4.20    Point In Time                     9/2
Lingfield             4.25    Equally Fast                  15/2ew
Lingfield             4.25    Roundabout Magic        14/1ew
Lingfield             7.05    Accomplice                      9/2ew
Lingfield             7.05    Wilson                            11/2ew
Lingfield             7.35    Mr Shady                       18/1ew
Lingfield             8.05    Turnbury                        66/1ew
Lingfield             8.05    Janus                               7/4
Lingfield             8.05    Settle Petal                      8/1ew
Gowran Park     6.15    Pillmakers Hill                  7/1ew
Tipperary           2.45    Dash D’Or                        9/1ew
Tipperary           2.45    The Peckhampouncer    25/1ew
Tipperary           4.30    Rock On Seamie            12/1ew
Tipperary           5.05    Tennessee Wildcat         10/1ew

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12.50 Nm Rock Boy Grey £1 win at 5/1
12.50 NM Rose Hip £1 win at 13/2
3.00 Asc Anthony Van Dyck £2 win at 3/1
3.00 Asc Mprando £1 Win at 11/2
3.00 Asc Eagles By Day 25p win at 66/1
3.45 Nm Peace Prevails £1 win at 9/2
4.10 Asc Born With Pride £2 win at 5/2
4.10 Ascot Al Daveran £1 at 5/1
4.25 Lin Tabaahy £2 win at 3/1
4.25 Lin Equally fast £1 7/1
4.25 Lin Roundabout Magic 50p win at 14/1

3.00 Asc Anthony Van Dyck 3/1
3.45 Nm Peace Prevails 9/2
4.10 Asc Born With Pride 5/2
One £1 win trixie = £4 pot return of £132.25

Total win bets £12.75

Total Multiples = £4.00

Total stakes = £16.75

 

 

 

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4 hours ago, Bathtime For Rupert said:

1.15 Ascot - 1pt win Dancin Inthestreet @ 8/1 Bet365

Another fav I'll let win at that price in a handicap in a big field. Looks smart but I don't think he's beaten any superstars in his wins so far so will take him on with one that I'm fairly confident will be winning off its mark before long.

Ran well over 7f on debut when 2nd, beating Angel Power into 3rd (that one now rated 85), backed that up with a win at Lingfield and a decent effort in a good race at Wolverhampton - beaten 3 3/4l into 5th but those that beat him are now rated 97, 87, 92 and 97 so it was a good race and this horse gets to run off 83 today - whilst out of the handicap, I still think he's capable having run a stormer on return when an unlucky loser, finding no sort of run. Stays 5f well so this stiff test will suit and looks progressive. 

1.50 Ascot - 1pt win Setarhe @ 15/2 Bet365

Probably stupid to take on O'Brien with another horse with the right profile for this, after Battleground's win yesterday but if the ground remains quite easy, this filly by Zoffany out of a Green Desert mare might not want it too soft so will take her on.

Hard to weigh up a lot of form in this race but Setarhe represents the trainer who won this race last year and overcame a poor start to win pretty well in the end on debut at Newmarket. Showed a good turn of foot there and came from last to first at a time when it was difficult to make up ground at the track, so I think the performance can be upgraded. Should handle soft conditions being by Footstepsinthesand and should progress for that experience.

2.25 Ascot - 2pts win The Lir Jet @ 5/1 Bet365

Tough race again as little to go off - the favourite has a huge chance on form clearly with that debut win reading well based on this week but again, I don't want to take short prices on horses who haven't run under these conditions yet as it has to prove it handles soft - Exceed and Excel horses often prefer a sounder surface so I'm going to take it on with The Lir Jet who won well on debut at Yarmouth, forging clear in the final furlong to see the trip out very well indeed. Michael Bell's horses usually come on for their debuts too so should be more to come and should handle conditions today - his sire actually won this race on soft a few years back so I'm hoping this one can follow in its hoofsteps today!

3.00 Ascot - 2pts win Morando @ 7/1 Bet365

Taking on yet another favourite here - Elarqam shapes as if 1m4f could suit but still yet to try it and by Frankel out of a miler, it's not a given, especially on soft in a Group 2. Yet again I'd sooner chance a horse that will relish conditions and that's Morando. May not be the best in the race but when there are certain question marks over the first three in the betting, and more rain forecast before racing, this one will love soft ground, stays well, has excellent form in the book when getting his conditions and I can see his price collapsing if the rain materialises. 

3.35 Ascot - 1pt win Mums Tipple @ 16/1 Bet365

Tricky race to call this one so chancing Mums Tipple at a big price. Obviously made a big impression at York last year, winning by 11l but failed to match that in two runs since. Far too early to write off though as was lame after the Middle Park and just isn't a miler in my opinion so I'm not too concerned about the Guineas. This track will suit better too and unlike some of these, I can't see an issue with the ground given its pedigree and action. 

4.10 Ascot - 2pts win Berkshire Rocco @ 10/3 Bet365

I backed this one in the Derby trial when English King was too speedy for him but the pair were miles clear and this horse is one I think is certain to get the trip, which others still have to prove. Lots of stamina in his family, is an uncomplicated type with good form in the book. Sure to be there or thereabouts and I think he'll take the beating.

4.40 Ascot - 0.5pts e/w Scarlet Dragon @ 28/1 Bet365

Another tricky race but Scarlet Dragon is a seasoned performer who has been Group class in the past and is off a good mark here. Key to this one is getting it to settle but the drop back to a spot on 1m4f trip is a big plus and hopefully the decent sized field will too. If switching off, conditions are perfect and could outrun the odds.

Awesome tip on Scarlet t Dragon! Had a £5 E/W Free bet on it!

Won on The Lir Jet too!

Thank you very much! 🙂 

 

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12 hours ago, Trotter said:

Today's all aged handicap selections.....

Ling

4.25 Kath's Lustre 11/2, Buriann 7/2
8.05 Lauberhorn Rocket
4/1 (NR), Becky Sharp 33/1

Newm

12.50 Rose Hip, 11/2 Autumn Flight 15/2
2.35 Nihaall 11/2 , Nirodha 33/1
3.45 Peace Prevails 4/1 (WON), Blowing Dixie 13/2
4.20 Tribal Craft 5/2, Point In Time 7/2 (NR)

prices bet365 bog

running totals -  stakes 25.00 P/L +5.83

not a great day ...... just one winner and two NR stakes returned. 

today - staked 10, return 5, P/L - 5

running total - staked 35, P/L + 0.83

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Decent returns today and managed a profit -

Ascot                 4.40    Indianapolis                  10/1ew-----------lost
Ascot                 4.40    Getchagetchagetcha    33/1ew-----------lost
Newmarket      12.50    Colonel Frank                   5/2-------------lost
Newmarket      12.50    Shamshon                    10/1ew-----------lost
Newmarket        4.20    Point In Time                    9/2-------------n/r
Lingfield             4.25    Equally Fast                 15/2ew-----------lost
Lingfield             4.25    Roundabout Magic       14/1ew-----------lost
Lingfield             7.05    Accomplice                     9/2ew-----------1st 11/2 😀
Lingfield             7.05    Wilson                           11/2ew-----------lost
Lingfield             7.35    Mr Shady                      18/1ew-----------lost
Lingfield             8.05    Turnbury                        66/1ew-----------lost
Lingfield             8.05    Janus                                 7/4-------------lost
Lingfield             8.05    Settle Petal                      8/1ew-----------1st 15/2 😀
Gowran Park     6.15    Pillmakers Hill                   7/1ew-----------2nd 11/2 😀
Tipperary           2.45    Dash D’Or                        9/1ew-----------lost
Tipperary           2.45    The Peckhampouncer    25/1ew-----------lost
Tipperary           4.30    Rock On Seamie            12/1ew-----------1st 18/1 :cheers
Tipperary           5.05    Tennessee Wildcat         10/1ew-----------4th 10/1 😀

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10 hours ago, The Equaliser said:

12.50 Nm Rock Boy Grey £1 win at 5/1
12.50 NM Rose Hip £1 win at 13/2
3.00 Asc Anthony Van Dyck £2 win at 3/1
3.00 Asc Mprando £1 Win at 11/2
3.00 Asc Eagles By Day 25p win at 66/1
3.45 Nm Peace Prevails £1 win at 9/2
4.10 Asc Born With Pride £2 win at 5/2
4.10 Ascot Al Daveran £1 at 5/1
4.25 Lin Tabaahy £2 win at 3/1
4.25 Lin Equally fast £1 7/1
4.25 Lin Roundabout Magic 50p win at 14/1

3.00 Asc Anthony Van Dyck 3/1
3.45 Nm Peace Prevails 9/2
4.10 Asc Born With Pride 5/2
One £1 win trixie = £4 pot return of £132.25

Total win bets £12.75

Total Multiples = £4.00

Total stakes = £16.75

 

 

 

Only one winner today for all my efforts which was Peace Prevails at 9/2.  Very disappointing day.

Single bets incurred a £7.25 loss which means a C/Fwd balance of £357.65 (£400 Bank)

Only one winner in the multiples so a £4 loss  = A C/Fwd balance of £610.48 (£800 Bank)

It isn't that I can't pick winners it is just that I am constantly being misled by the main sporting press  (PL tips excluded of course)

 

 

 

 

Edited by The Equaliser
correction

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