TheLoneBettor Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 It felt like an age waiting for Racing to get the nod again. But I have to ask myself have the horses been in some kind of training in the past 2 months or so? Will this affect a trainers routine? For example - Will his or her horses be ready or not or will they just race them just for the sake of just giving them a run? So many questions to ask because I am worried that stats from previous seasons (lets say if you have a system based on Newcastle top trainers) may take a different turn this time around. Okay, that's the negative done so I have been trying to look for a positive angle on this. Because racing has been out for the last 2 months or so, I have convinced myself that trainers need to bring some badly needed money home. They may not have had much time to train their horses since they knew racing was back on the 1st of June but neither has any other trainers. The point being here is, or the point I want to believe is that it won't be as negative as I have been making out. It may take a bit of time to settle down but I am going with the angle that trainers need to bring home some winners so it won't affect the stat trends of the past. I would love to hear your views on this. For what it's worth I have been doing some research on HorseRaceBase at Newcastle. I have gone with the Forecast Favourites and Trainer/Jockey combination with other factors thrown in as well. I try not to back-fit systems too much for obvious reasons but many of my systems have gone with the stats. Some work and some don't as we all know. So, this is what I came up with. It may look like an unbelievable strike rate but these horses are forecast favourites and have been consistent from 2017. I can't say the same about some other track favourites but it looks like Newcastle is a good hunting ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 The '5 Day Decs' are out for Monday at Newcastle ...... 369 horses entered in 8 races The highest grade of race is a Class 3 handicap over 12 furlongs No two year old race One thing to bear in mind is that races up to a Mile are run on a straight track ... I think it's always handy to see which horses in a race have 'straight track form' because it is different to running around a bend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 26, 2020 Author Share Posted May 26, 2020 7 minutes ago, Trotter said: The '5 Day Decs' are out for Monday at Newcastle ...... 369 horses entered in 8 races The highest grade of race is a Class 3 handicap over 12 furlongs No two year old race One thing to bear in mind is that races up to a Mile are run on a straight track ... I think it's always handy to see which horses in a race have 'straight track form' because it is different to running around a bend Thank you Trotter for that information. I will be checking the qualifiers over the weekend when HRB has its 48 hour decs. A very useful piece of information indeed. Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 20 minutes ago, TheLoneBettor said: Thank you Trotter for that information. I will be checking the qualifiers over the weekend when HRB has its 48 hour decs. A very useful piece of information indeed. Regards I think they are doing 72hr decs for the first couple of weeks after lockdown. Its to give people plenty of notice, so we might get the runners early. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 26, 2020 Author Share Posted May 26, 2020 49 minutes ago, BillyHills said: I think they are doing 72hr decs for the first couple of weeks after lockdown. Its to give people plenty of notice, so we might get the runners early. Now that would be good thing. Cheers Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 72 hour decs until further notice. This is what they do for most meetings in Australia. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted May 26, 2020 Share Posted May 26, 2020 11 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said: It felt like an age waiting for Racing to get the nod again. But I have to ask myself have the horses been in some kind of training in the past 2 months or so? Will this affect a trainers routine? For example - Will his or her horses be ready or not or will they just race them just for the sake of just giving them a run? So many questions to ask because I am worried that stats from previous seasons (lets say if you have a system based on Newcastle top trainers) may take a different turn this time around. Okay, that's the negative done so I have been trying to look for a positive angle on this. Because racing has been out for the last 2 months or so, I have convinced myself that trainers need to bring some badly needed money home. They may not have had much time to train their horses since they knew racing was back on the 1st of June but neither has any other trainers. The point being here is, or the point I want to believe is that it won't be as negative as I have been making out. It may take a bit of time to settle down but I am going with the angle that trainers need to bring home some winners so it won't affect the stat trends of the past. I would love to hear your views on this. For what it's worth I have been doing some research on HorseRaceBase at Newcastle. I have gone with the Forecast Favourites and Trainer/Jockey combination with other factors thrown in as well. I try not to back-fit systems too much for obvious reasons but many of my systems have gone with the stats. Some work and some don't as we all know. So, this is what I came up with. It may look like an unbelievable strike rate but these horses are forecast favourites and have been consistent from 2017. I can't say the same about some other track favourites but it looks like Newcastle is a good hunting ground. Good luck with this. Is there any logic in picking these trainers / jockeys ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Think At The Races & The Racing Post who are printing a paper version for shops on Monday are all over this story & rightly so, however it's not been given the green light by the Government yet so until they're lining up in the stalls I will curtail my excitement. I think after a few false dawn's South African racing returns on Monday as well , a bumper congestion day on Sky Sports Racing ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 27, 2020 Author Share Posted May 27, 2020 9 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Good luck with this. Is there any logic in picking these trainers / jockeys ? Yes. I normally go back only 3 plus the current season for Trainer/Jockey combinations. In the example below of the yearly breakdown I have gone back a further year. It looks like All Weather Racing has only been running at Newcastle since 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 27, 2020 Author Share Posted May 27, 2020 Hi PunterPhil A quick random search produced this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 27, 2020 Author Share Posted May 27, 2020 3 hours ago, calva decoy said: Think At The Races & The Racing Post who are printing a paper version for shops on Monday are all over this story & rightly so, however it's not been given the green light by the Government yet so until they're lining up in the stalls I will curtail my excitement. I think after a few false dawn's South African racing returns on Monday as well , a bumper congestion day on Sky Sports Racing ? I just hope my thread hasn't been in vain, calva. lol. Regards calva decoy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 Given the government are so keen to get things going again ASAP I would be surprised if they don’t give the go ahead tomorrow when they are set to announce if we can go to the next stage or not TheLoneBettor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 5 hours ago, calva decoy said: a bumper congestion day on Sky Sports Racing ? Not sure if the safety protocols have a limit on the number of races at a meeting but if not we could be in for a 10 or 12 race card at Newcastle as several of the races could be divided into 2 Divisions with the number of entries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Darran said: Given the government are so keen to get things going again ASAP I would be surprised if they don’t give the go ahead tomorrow when they are set to announce if we can go to the next stage or not Given that Racing has made such detailed preparations I expect they must have been given the nod behind the scenes As the Government is getting so much flak for being late into lockdown compared to other countries I think they are just nervous about easing restrictions and having a second surge of deaths...... then they'd be getting flak for being too early out of lockdown ! That's probably why they want to wait until the last minute before making a public announcement ...... just to make sure the 'graphs' are still on a downward trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 1 hour ago, TheLoneBettor said: I just hope my thread hasn't been in vain, calva. lol. Regards Some good stats , they'll come into use sooner or later ? TheLoneBettor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunterPhil Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 My suggestion for what its worth: Keep it small because we don't know how fit the horses are! I think you should keep your powder dry for Royal Ascot. That's my strategy anyway.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 27, 2020 Share Posted May 27, 2020 9 hours ago, Trotter said: Not sure if the safety protocols have a limit on the number of races at a meeting but if not we could be in for a 10 or 12 race card at Newcastle as several of the races could be divided into 2 Divisions with the number of entries I believe there will be up to 10 races and pretty sure the limit of 12 horse races is still happening. The other factor is the stabling of horses as a meeting can only have as many runners as stables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Villa Chris Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 So glad we’ve got some Uk racing to go over. But tricky , and I don’t usually bother with AW anymore, but will certainly been having a look. Horses that go well after a break, and trainers that usually hit the ground running i’ll be looking at. And of course AW and course form in particular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 28, 2020 Author Share Posted May 28, 2020 I've just had a look on the British Horse Racing Authority (BHA) website and the entries are out for Newcastle Mon 1st June. Here is a link. https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/fixtures/upcoming/entries/#!/2020/18997/ Lol, the 1.00pm race says a maximum of 12 runners but 57 have entered. I think I will wait for the numbers to come down before trying to find something here. In fact all 8 races have a maximum of 12 runners. Lets hope it goes ahead. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 There will be 10 races of 12 runners at Newcastle, including 2 races split. Kempton Tuesday are having 9 races, again12 runners in each so could split some. Ascot will allow many more, up to 24 in big handicaps I believe. Quote Field sizes – the following will apply: All non-Pattern and Listed races will be limited to 12 runners per race. This reflects risk modelling that indicates that field sizes of 12 or fewer in non-Pattern and Listed races reduces the risk to participants on the track. Even though more races have been programmed at each fixture than would normally be the case, we recognise that this will increase competition for places. This will be reviewed at the end of the first week of racing. Pattern and Listed races will not be limited to 12 runners. These races will be subject to the existing maximum field size limits, or any other limit imposed by the racecourse at which the races are to be held. Again, this decision is based on risk modelling, which indicates that Pattern and Listed races are less likely to involve an incident. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darran Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 Here’s a link to stabling capacity. Newcastle have 124 so will be fine. Kempton have 117 so won’t be able to have 10 races of 12. https://support.racingadmin.co.uk/racing-admin-support/bha-notices/racecourse-information-/ BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 28, 2020 Author Share Posted May 28, 2020 I have just been searching for win strategies on HRB lately but I have just started to notice the Place P/L and Place ROI% on some of my finds quite impressive. So yesterday and today I have been system building with a few strategies. Again, I have used Newcastle. Finding double figured odds winners is hard enough but for a Place, it quite surprised me. I will be taking precautions to this approach (I will be halving my normal stakes for now until I know things have settled down) for obvious reasons. I have done a combination of Stallions, Trainers and Jockeys. The Forecast price range starts at 11 to 34. Sounds a bit cuckoo land doesn't it lol? But I am place betting on Betfair. Here is what I found. What I found impressive was Plc%(BF) is 49.73%. I just hope I have some qualifiers so I can give it a go. BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunterPhil Posted May 28, 2020 Share Posted May 28, 2020 Lone, in HRB can you see Going stats for stallions progeny? That would be useful to check when it comes to turf. . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 28, 2020 Author Share Posted May 28, 2020 1 hour ago, PunterPhil said: Lone, in HRB can you see Going stats for stallions progeny? That would be useful to check when it comes to turf. . I take it you took the free trial then, Phil. I've got some systems for stallions on certain goings. The best stats produced for me were looking at stallions who were good on heavy ground so this system works best on NH racing. However, you have a good point and that will be something for me to ponder in the near future. Regards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 29, 2020 Author Share Posted May 29, 2020 Racecard is out for Newcastle 1st June https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/fixtures/upcoming/racecard/#!/2020/18997 Looks like I have a few qualifiers to work around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trotter Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, TheLoneBettor said: Racecard is out for Newcastle 1st June https://www.britishhorseracing.com/racing/fixtures/upcoming/racecard/#!/2020/18997 Looks like I have a few qualifiers to work around. The BHA site appears to be missing the last 2 races ..... the Racing Post has 10 races on the card Reminder that in between the Newcastle races the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas are being run at Deauville on Monday afternoon .... should be on Sky Sports during the Newcastle coverage Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 29, 2020 Author Share Posted May 29, 2020 1 minute ago, Trotter said: The BHA site appears to be missing the last 2 races ..... the Racing Post has 10 races on the card Reminder that in between the Newcastle races the French 1000 and 2000 Guineas are being run at Deauville on Monday afternoon .... should be on Sky Sports during the Newcastle coverage I've just noticed that now. I'm looking at ATR at the moment and they also are showing 10 races. I might stop using BHA. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 3 hours ago, TheLoneBettor said: I've just noticed that now. I'm looking at ATR at the moment and they also are showing 10 races. I might stop using BHA. Cards up on HRB https://www.horseracebase.com/horse-racing-today.php TheLoneBettor 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLoneBettor Posted May 29, 2020 Author Share Posted May 29, 2020 28 minutes ago, BillyHills said: Cards up on HRB https://www.horseracebase.com/horse-racing-today.php Cheers Billy. Brilliant. I think that's the first time HRB has done 72hrs Decs. I have 4 qualifiers to have a look at. Will be posting them in Racing Chat come Monday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calva decoy Posted May 29, 2020 Share Posted May 29, 2020 Friday Night & still no government go ahead for the horses or greyhounds for Monday. Just perused Newcastle's card & there's a few lucky trainers will multiple entries in each race. 100 R.Fell ( 3 ) 210 K.Burke ( 2 ) 320 P.Midgley ( 2 ) 430 R.Cowell ( 2 ) 505 P.Kirby & M.Johnston ( 2 ) 615 M.Johnston & R.Fahey ( 2 ) Must have been a nightmare for the people deciding who gets an entry but Roger Fell 3 in the 100 , hmmm , could have been fairer ! Two Group 1's from Deauville 250 & 325 same day , typical , be at work ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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