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Greatwood Gold Cup/ Grimthorpe Chase - Saturday Handicaps


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Results have just rolled off comp and both are likely runners so I'll post early 

Jerrysback  380  304 total  684 

Mont de avaloirs   300 289 total 589 

Jerrysback is the form horse and has a high class rating with the par for race being 450 but Nicholls farms this race with an unexposed novice type and mont de  avaloirs fits that bill perfectly so although a fair bit behind top rated these 2 are clear of rest so warrants serious respect with potentially more to come ...some good prices currently on offer and I don't think they will last long 

Jerrysback 10pts ew 8/1 sky

Mont de avaloirs 10pts ew 10/1 sky 

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  • BillyHills changed the title to Greatwood Gold Cup/ Grimthorpe Chase - Saturday Handicaps

Two good handicap chases this weekend

315 Newbury

2m4f (2m3f187y) William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Screen Shot 2020-02-26 at 10.40.44.png

Trends

9/10 Aged 8 or lower
9/10 Carried 11st 5 or less
9/10 Ran within 6 weeks
7/10 Trained by P Nicholls
6/10 Rated 140 or more
9/16 Placed first 4 last time
14/16 Ran at least 3 times this season
10/16 won at the trip before

 

 

335 Doncaster

3m2f (3m2f1y) 888Sport Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2) (5yo+)

Screen Shot 2020-02-26 at 10.40.40.png

Trends

10/10 Aged 8 or older
10/10 Ran within 70 days
9/10 carried 11st or less
8/10 Rated below 140
14/18 First 4 last time
18/18 Ran at least twice this season
17/18 Not won beyond 3m2f

 

 

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Grimthorpe 

Captain chaos  cls 260   290  total 550

Chidswell   cls  250  270 total 520 

Some chaos  cls  255  273 total 528    

Captain chaos is the ew form horse and looks very good value around 10/1 but there's not a lot between top 3 so I'll try wins all 3 

Captain chaos 5pts win 10/1 betv

Chidswell 5pts win 11/1 bet365

Some chaos  5pts win 25/1 bet365 

 

Edited by richard-westwood
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15 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

How does he rate in the race he’s now been entered for? 

He's top rated in that race but he's dropping down from favoured and optimum 3 mile to 2 miles ...that's crazy imo....hes no form over 2 mile .....he might still win but he's not drifted to 12/1 for no reason ....crazy decision in my opinion ....I'm not backing him under those conditions ..if he wins he wins but no value ...dont know what they were thinking ....even the 2m4f at newb was a little short but at least he had form at 2m4f and the soft ground would have helped .....but a 2 mile race is a speedster game and to be frank he's quite slow lol....really isn't quick at all ....probably win 19 lengths now haha ....but there are too many big races coming to bother with it

Edited by richard-westwood
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315 Newbury

9/10 Aged 8 or lower
We lose Bags Groove, Bennys King, Gala Ball, Valdez, Not Another MMuddle, Tiquer, Drumcliff
9/10 Carried 11st 5 or less
WE lose Secret Investor, San benedeto, Clondaw Castle, 
9/10 Ran within 6 weeks
7/10 Trained by P Nicholls
6/10 Rated 140 or more
We lose Enrichissant

Selections
1pt Mont Des Avaloirs 9/2 bet365
1pt Domane De L'Isle 14/1 PP

______________________________________

335 Doncaster

10/10 Aged 8 or older
We lose Boldmere, Worthy Farm

10/10 Ran within 70 days
All qualify§

9/10 carried 11st or less
We lose DRed, Saint Xavier, Yalltari, Aaron Lad

14/18 First 4 last time
We lose Cesar Et Rosalie

18/18 Ran at least twice this season
17/18 Not won beyond 3m2f

left with Cptain Chaos, Childswell, Fortified Bay and Ascot DB

Four horse all qualify but 9 previous winners won last time so the selection is:

1pt EW Fortified Bay 10/1 bet365

 

 


 

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On 2/28/2020 at 6:48 AM, Villa Chris said:

How does he rate in the race he’s now been entered for? 

Lol ...they've just had the same debate on the morning line for the horse ....been backed into 3/1 from 12/1 .....crazy price ....ok if on at 12/1 but only thing I can see is if all the others flounder in the ground ....interesting to watch though ...gone a bit of a nightmare everywhere with amount of rain ....just bogs 

Edited by richard-westwood
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49 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

Lol ...they've just had the same debate on the morning line for the horse ....been backed into 3/1 from 12/1 .....crazy price ....ok if on at 12/1 but only thing I can see is if all the others flounder in the ground ....interesting to watch though ...gone a bit of a nightmare everywhere with amount of rain ....just bogs 

Yeah I noticed ha. It’s all gone to pot really. Newbury abandoned and horses being pulled out of races. 

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On 2/26/2020 at 1:22 PM, richard-westwood said:

Grimthorpe 

Captain chaos  cls 260   290  total 550

Chidswell   cls  250  270 total 520 

Some chaos  cls  255  273 total 528    

Captain chaos is the ew form horse and looks very good value around 10/1 but there's not a lot between top 3 so I'll try wins all 3 

Captain chaos 5pts win 10/1 betv

Chidswell 5pts win 11/1 bet365

Some chaos  5pts win 25/1 bet365 

 

Captain chaos wins 30 lengths ....what the hell...lol

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