kuklachert Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) Hi all, in this thread I'll be sharing the results of my bets on ITF tournaments which I place using a model-based approach. Why ITF? ITF tournaments (lowest tier of professional tennis) seem to be an imperfect betting market where information is often scarce, so I assume bookies do not always know exactly what they're doing when they're offering odds. For Challenger/ATP/WTA tournaments my approach didn't work so well (albeit on a small sample) so I stopped betting there and concentrated on ITF. I bet on both men's and women's tournaments (no W60, W80, W100 because they attract a player field of a comparable level to ATP challengers which I find hugely unpredictable). The best bookies for ITF tournaments are bet365, Betclic. Bwin and Unibet occasionally also offer ok odds. What does my model do? It's a relatively simple Logistic Regression that predicts each player's win probabilities. Following main factors go into the model: ELO rating (several versions calculated with different formulae - some place more weight in recent form, others are more influenced by long-term results) Recent changes in ELO rating Players' form on the surface played Head-to-head (overall/on surface played) Home advantage Additional factors I apply on top of the model as an "expert judgment" are: Are "rising talents" involved in a match? (they tend to have ELO rankings lower than their true level) Are players from different playing fields involved? (In case 2 players meet, one of which mainly plays in Challengers and the other in Futures, the ELO of the Challenger player tends to underestimate his relative level because he plays in a stronger field; similarly, players from the Asian fields tend to be weaker than their European/American counterparts with the same ELO) Has the model performed well with the players I'm betting on/against? (if I bet against Roger Federer twice this week and he wins both times, I'm not likely to bet another time even if the model recommends me to) Do players have sufficient match form? (I won't bet on a player who hasn't played for 6 months if the model recommends me to) Tiredness (I won't bet on a player who yesterday played a 4-hour match). The probabilities generated by the model are then compared with to odds. I only bet on odds between 1.4 and 2.9. For higher odds, I found the model to be unreliable, for lower odds it just doesn't make sense as I live in Germany where all winnings on betting are taxed 5%. To account for model risks I apply an additional margin of conservatism to select my bets. So if the model tells me that Player A wins with 60% probability, the lowest odds I want to take on Player A would be (1/0.6)*(1/0.95)*1,1=1.93. The (1/0.95) multiplier accounts for the betting tax, the 1.1 multiplier accounts for model error. In case I'm really convinced by the players' stats I might accept odds of 1.85-1.90. The model is calibrated on an extensive history (ITF men's and women's matches starting 2001). Final words The 5% tax makes profitable betting in Germany pretty much impossible, so I only bet small amounts for fun. In this thread, I will show both profit before and after tax so people in other countries get a realistic view of the model performance. So far after ~950 bets I have achieved an ROI of around 7% before tax and 2% after tax which I find decent. I will always bet the same amount, let's say a symbolic 5 EUR on each match. Let's hope I can maintain my ROI after I start posting. I also hope this thread attracts some tennis betting enthusiasts, especially those who use statistical/ML methods and are willing to share their secrets because I truly believe a scientific approach can make betting profitable. Edited February 5, 2020 by kuklachert axel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 (edited) So let's start, my first picks are: Dusty H. Boyer v Simon Carr, M15 Cancun, 5 EUR, 2.10 with bet365 Arlinda Rushiti v Victoria Kalaitzis, W15 Monastir, 5 EUR, 1.50 with bet365 Edited February 5, 2020 by kuklachert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 5, 2020 Author Share Posted February 5, 2020 One more pick for tonight: Marsel Ilhan v Khumoyun Sultanov, M25 Nonthaburi, 5 EUR, 1.48 with bwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 5, 2020 Share Posted February 5, 2020 Good luck @kuklachert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 Thanks Sir! Cadantu v Miyazaki, W25 Trnava, 5 EUR, 2.36 with Betclic T. Boyer v Dzhavakian, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 5 EUR, 1.93 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 6, 2020 Author Share Posted February 6, 2020 First results: 19 hours ago, kuklachert said: Dusty H. Boyer v Simon Carr, M15 Cancun, 5 EUR, 2.10 with bet365 - Lost Arlinda Rushiti v Victoria Kalaitzis, W15 Monastir, 5 EUR, 1.50 with bet365 - Void, returned 5.00 19 hours ago, kuklachert said: Marsel Ilhan v Khumoyun Sultanov, M25 Nonthaburi, 5 EUR, 1.48 with bwin - Won 7.40 (7.03 after tax) 8 hours ago, kuklachert said: Cadantu v Miyazaki, W25 Trnava, 5 EUR, 2.36 with Betclic - Won 11.80 (11.21) T. Boyer v Dzhavakian, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 5 EUR, 1.93 with Betclic - Won 9.65 (9.17) I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week. vikki37 and thecurlyone1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 One pick for today: Podzus v Rybakov, M25 Palm Coast, 5 EUR, 2.00 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 8, 2020 Author Share Posted February 8, 2020 One more: Barrios Vera v Sakamoto, M25 Lima, 2.20 with bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 On 2/8/2020 at 9:16 AM, kuklachert said: Podzus v Rybakov, M25 Palm Coast, 5 EUR, 2.00 with Betclic - Won 10.00 (9.50) 21 hours ago, kuklachert said: Barrios Vera v Sakamoto, M25 Lima, 2.20 with bet365 - Lost Today's picks: Davies v Farmer, M25 Barnstaple qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.90 with bet365 Desperrier v Dentoni, W25 Grenoble qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.72 with bwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 9, 2020 Author Share Posted February 9, 2020 6 hours ago, kuklachert said: Davies v Farmer, M25 Barnstaple qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.90 with bet365 - Lost Desperrier v Dentoni, W25 Grenoble qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.72 with bwin - Won 8.60 (8.17) Roundup of the first week: Total stake: 45.00 Total winnings: 52.45 (50.08 after tax) ROI: 16.6% (11.3% after tax) vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 First picks for today: Dzhavakian v Caldes, M15 Sharm el Shekh qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.45 with Betclic - managed to post just before the line closed Brouleau v Arcangioli, W25 Grenoble qualifiers, 5 EUR, 2.75 with bet365 Miklova v Kubareva, W25 Trnava qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.45 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Tverijonas v Little, M25 Barnstaple qualifiers, 1.44 with bet365 Matas Ortega v Damas, M15 Palmanova, 1.54 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 Price v Tchakarova, W15 Cancun qualifiers, 1.66 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 12 hours ago, kuklachert said: Dzhavakian v Caldes, M15 Sharm el Shekh qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.45 with Betclic - Won 7.25 (6.89) Brouleau v Arcangioli, W25 Grenoble qualifiers, 5 EUR, 2.75 with bet365 - Lost Miklova v Kubareva, W25 Trnava qualifiers, 5 EUR, 1.45 with Betclic - Won 7.25 (6.89) 12 hours ago, kuklachert said: Tverijonas v Little, M25 Barnstaple qualifiers, 1.44 with bet365 - Void Matas Ortega v Damas, M15 Palmanova, 1.54 with Betclic - Won 7.70 (7.32) New picks: Stevenson v Tessa, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 2.50 with bet365 Papik v Bouzige, M15 Sharm El Sheikh quals, 2.25 with bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 10, 2020 Author Share Posted February 10, 2020 11 hours ago, kuklachert said: Price v Tchakarova, W15 Cancun qualifiers, 1.66 with Betclic - Won 8.30 (7.89) Shimizu v Routliffe, W15 Hamilton, 1.50 with Unibet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 Kocevar-Desman v Massara, M15 Heraklion, 1.84 with Betclic Bouquet v Amoros Ramos, M15 Palmanova quals, 1.70 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 Gutierrez v Arreche, M25 Lima, 1.51 with Betclic Rybakov v Bergevi, M25 Naples quals, 1.98 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 11, 2020 Author Share Posted February 11, 2020 D. Demidova v Nefedova, W15 Antalya, 2.37 with bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 (edited) Noguchi v Karimov, M25 Aktobe, 2.08 with Betclic Edited February 12, 2020 by kuklachert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Muntean v Danilina, W25 Grenoble, 2.75 with bet365 Desperrier v Murray Shahan, W25 Grenoble, 2.37 with bet365 Bouquet v Zhurbin, M15 Palmanova, 1.89 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Slobodshikov v Andreev, M25 Naples, 2.43 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 12, 2020 Author Share Posted February 12, 2020 Results: On 2/10/2020 at 9:43 PM, kuklachert said: Stevenson v Tessa, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 2.50 with bet365 - Lost Papik v Bouzige, M15 Sharm El Sheikh quals, 2.25 with bet365 - Lost On 2/10/2020 at 11:09 PM, kuklachert said: Shimizu v Routliffe, W15 Hamilton, 1.50 with Unibet - Lost On 2/11/2020 at 8:49 AM, kuklachert said: Kocevar-Desman v Massara, M15 Heraklion, 1.84 with Betclic - Lost Bouquet v Amoros Ramos, M15 Palmanova quals, 1.70 with Betclic - Won 8.50 (8.08) On 2/11/2020 at 11:26 AM, kuklachert said: Gutierrez v Arreche, M25 Lima, 1.51 with Betclic - Lost Rybakov v Bergevi, M25 Naples quals, 1.98 with Betclic - Won 9.90 (9.41) 15 hours ago, kuklachert said: Noguchi v Karimov, M25 Aktobe, 2.08 with Betclic - Lost 8 hours ago, kuklachert said: Muntean v Danilina, W25 Grenoble, 2.75 with bet365 - Lost Desperrier v Murray Shahan, W25 Grenoble, 2.37 with bet365 - Lost Bouquet v Zhurbin, M15 Palmanova, 1.89 with Betclic - Won 9.45 (8.98) 4 hours ago, kuklachert said: Slobodshikov v Andreev, M25 Naples, 2.43 with Betclic - Won 12.15 (11.44) A disappointing couple of days, every close match went the wrong way, but these things happen. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 New picks for today: Khromacheva v Kostova, W25 Trnava, 1.55 with Betclic Perchicot v Eysseric, W15 Palmanova, 2.20 with bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 Herdzelas v Doroshina, W25 Trnava, 2.19 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 13, 2020 Author Share Posted February 13, 2020 12 hours ago, kuklachert said: Khromacheva v Kostova, W25 Trnava, 1.55 with Betclic - Won 7.75 (7.36) Perchicot v Eysseric, W15 Palmanova, 2.20 with bet365 - Lost 10 hours ago, kuklachert said: Herdzelas v Doroshina, W25 Trnava, 2.19 with Betclic - Won 10.95 (10.40) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 Harris v Bellucci, M15 Heraklion, 2.75 with bet365 Sakharov v Tabur, M15 Grenoble, 1.55 with Betclic Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 14, 2020 Author Share Posted February 14, 2020 On 2/11/2020 at 8:39 PM, kuklachert said: D. Demidova v Nefedova, W15 Antalya, 2.37 with bet365 - Void 8 hours ago, kuklachert said: Harris v Bellucci, M15 Heraklion, 2.75 with bet365 - Lost Sakharov v Tabur, M15 Grenoble, 1.55 with Betclic - Won 7.75 (7.36) Second time this week, my pick loses after being 5-2 up in the third set. But I'm not surrendering ? vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 15, 2020 Author Share Posted February 15, 2020 Lazarov v Tajima, M15 Antalya, 1.72 with bwin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 (edited) 19 hours ago, kuklachert said: Lazarov v Tajima, M15 Antalya, 1.72 with bwin - Lost A fitting end to this week, the match again being decided against me by a couple of points. Weekly summary: Total stake: 125.00 Total winnings: 106.95 (102.10 after tax) Totals since thread start: Total stake: 170.00 Total winnings: 159.40 (152.18) ROI: -6.2% (-10.5%) Going on a small break, will continue posting towards the end of next week. Hope you'll miss me. ? Edited February 16, 2020 by kuklachert vikki37 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kuklachert Posted February 16, 2020 Author Share Posted February 16, 2020 (edited) Duplicated the previous post by mistake. Edited February 16, 2020 by kuklachert Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
.thumb.jpg.32384c3055cbc1254b0eb6212fda1359.jpg)
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.