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Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models

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First results: I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.

Hi all, in this thread I'll be sharing the results of my bets on ITF tournaments which I place using a model-based approach. Why ITF? ITF tournaments (lowest tier of professional tennis

Roundup of the first week: Total stake: 45.00 Total winnings: 52.45 (50.08 after tax) ROI: 16.6% (11.3% after tax)

On 10/13/2020 at 9:29 AM, kuklachert said:
  • Ponchet v Salden, W25 Cherbourg-en-Cotentin, 2.25 with bet365 - Lost
On 10/13/2020 at 2:42 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Lock v Lazarov, M15 Sharm el Sheikh, 1.80 with bet365 - Won 9.00 (8.55)
  • Marti v Sachko, M15 Sharm el Sheikh, 2.50 with bet365 - Lost
  • Juarez v Ivanov, M15 Monastir, 1.66 with bet365
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4 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Garland v Samir, W15 Sharm El Sheikh, 2.37 with bet365 - Won 11.85 (11.26)

A tough couple of weeks, but the models are still holding up. Stats since the last update:

  • Total stake: 60.00 (12 bets)
  • Total winnings: 62.40 (59.28 after tax)

Since the beginning of the thread:

  • Total stake: 500.00 (100 bets)
  • Total winnings: 529.50 (503.03 after tax)
  • ROI: 5.9% (0.6%)
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On 11/5/2020 at 10:50 AM, kuklachert said:
  • Bellier v Yang, M15 Quinta do Lago, 1.90 with bet365 - Won 9.50 (9.03)
On 11/6/2020 at 8:32 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Von Deichmann v Di Sarra, W15 Ortisei, 1.98 with Pinnacle - Won 9.90 (9.41)
  • Topalova v Bolton, W15 Heraklion, 2.10 with bet365 - Void

Time for another roundup. Stats since the last update: 

  • Total stake: 80.00 (16 bets)
  • Total winnings: 82.20 (78.09 after tax)

Since the start of the thread:

  • Total stake: 580.00 (116 bets)
  • Total winnings: 611.70 (581.12 after tax)
  • ROI: 5.5% (0.0% after tax)
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On 11/16/2020 at 7:50 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Kravchenko v Sanchez Jover, M15 Villena, 2.00 with bet365 - Won 10.00 (9.50)
11 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Zarycka v Lamens, W25 Las Palmas, 1.65 with bwin - Won 8.25 (7.84)
  • Ouahab v Weis, M15 Villena, 2.25 with bet365
  • Crepaldi v Deviatiarov, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 2.25 with bet365
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