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Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models


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First results: I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.

Hi all, in this thread I'll be sharing the results of my bets on ITF tournaments which I place using a model-based approach. Why ITF? ITF tournaments (lowest tier of professional tennis

Roundup of the first week: Total stake: 45.00 Total winnings: 52.45 (50.08 after tax) ROI: 16.6% (11.3% after tax)

16 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Donev v Vanta, M15 Curtea de Arges, 2.00 with bet365 - Won 10.00 (9.50)
  • Baltensperger v Tanner, M25 Klosters, 1.44 with William Hill - Won 7.20 (6.84)
5 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Fossa Huergo v Lim, W25 Grado, 2.10 with bet365 - Won 10.50 (9.98)
  • Zimmermann v Brancaccio, W25 Grado, 2.50 with bet365 - Won 12.50 (11.88)

Good stuff.

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On 9/15/2020 at 6:33 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Barranco Cosano v Van Rijthoven, M25 Prague, 2.20 with bet365 - Won 11.00 (10.45)
23 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Kopriva v Pospisil, M25 Prague, 2.15 with William Hill - Won 10.75 (10.21)
  • Geerts v Simon, M25 Plaisir, 1.70 with William Hill
  • Cukierman v Crepatte, M25 Plaisir, 2.10 with bet365
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On 10/2/2020 at 6:23 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Tirante v Grigelis, M15 Monastir, 2.00 with bet365 - Lost
On 10/3/2020 at 11:20 AM, kuklachert said:
  • Geerts v Ejupovic, M15 Forbach, 2.25 with bwin - Won 11.25 (10.69)

Was tempted to take Geerts one more time today at 2.10 but his opponent Cornut Chauvinc looked really impressive this week and might have a noticeable home advantage today in case France allows an indoor crowd for the final.

So it's time for a roundup. Stats since the last update:

Total stake: 55.00 (11 bets)
Total winnings: 39.00 (37.05 after tax)

Since the start of this thread:

Total stake: 440.00 (88 bets)
Total winnings: 467.10 (443.75 after tax)
ROI: 6.2% (0.9%)

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