Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models

[kuklachert]

23 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Pigossi v Moratelli, W25 Figueira da Foz, 2.00 with bet365 - Lost

• Min v Shoshyna, W25 Prague, 2.10 with bet365

[kuklachert]

13 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Min v Shoshyna, W25 Prague, 2.10 with bet365 - Lost

• Fossa Huergo v Radisic, W25 Tarvisio, 1.80 with William Hill

[kuklachert]

On 9/8/2020 at 9:19 PM, kuklachert said:

• Fossa Huergo v Radisic, W25 Tarvisio, 1.80 with William Hill - Won 9.00 (8.55)

• Parrizas Dias v Bassols Ribera, W25 Figueira da Foz, 1.87 with bwin

[kuklachert]

On 9/10/2020 at 10:03 AM, kuklachert said:

• Parrizas Dias v Bassols Ribera, W25 Figueira da Foz, 1.87 with bwin - Lost

• Eysseric v Loffhagen, M25 Plaisir, 2.10 with bet365

Edited September 14, 2020 by kuklachert

[kuklachert]

8 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Eysseric v Loffhagen, M25 Plaisir, 2.10 with bet365 - Won 10.50 (9.95)

• Donev v Vanta, M15 Curtea de Arges, 2.00 with bet365
• Baltensperger v Tanner, M25 Klosters, 1.44 with William Hill

[kuklachert]

• Fossa Huergo v Lim, W25 Grado, 2.10 with bet365
• Zimmermann v Brancaccio, W25 Grado, 2.50 with bet365

[kuklachert]

16 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Donev v Vanta, M15 Curtea de Arges, 2.00 with bet365 - Won 10.00 (9.50)
• Baltensperger v Tanner, M25 Klosters, 1.44 with William Hill - Won 7.20 (6.84)

5 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Fossa Huergo v Lim, W25 Grado, 2.10 with bet365 - Won 10.50 (9.98)
• Zimmermann v Brancaccio, W25 Grado, 2.50 with bet365 - Won 12.50 (11.88)

Good stuff.

[kuklachert]

• Barranco Cosano v Van Rijthoven, M25 Prague, 2.20 with bet365

[kuklachert]

• Kopriva v Pospisil, M25 Prague, 2.15 with William Hill

[kuklachert]

On 9/15/2020 at 6:33 PM, kuklachert said:

• Barranco Cosano v Van Rijthoven, M25 Prague, 2.20 with bet365 - Won 11.00 (10.45)

23 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Kopriva v Pospisil, M25 Prague, 2.15 with William Hill - Won 10.75 (10.21)

• Geerts v Simon, M25 Plaisir, 1.70 with William Hill
• Cukierman v Crepatte, M25 Plaisir, 2.10 with bet365

[kuklachert]

• Bovy v Nava, M15 Sintra, 2.11 with Pinnacle
• Parker v Carr, M15 Monastir, 1.74 with Pinnacle

[kuklachert]

9 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Geerts v Simon, M25 Plaisir, 1.70 with William Hill - Won 8.50 (8.08)
• Cukierman v Crepatte, M25 Plaisir, 2.10 with bet365 - Won 10.50 (9.98)

7 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Bovy v Nava, M15 Sintra, 2.11 with Pinnacle - Won 10.55 (10.02)
• Parker v Carr, M15 Monastir, 1.74 with Pinnacle - Lost

 

[kuklachert]

• Bertola v Lama, M25 Klosters, 2.90 with bwin

[kuklachert]

On 9/17/2020 at 10:51 PM, kuklachert said:

• Bertola v Lama, M25 Klosters, 2.90 with bwin - Lost

• Lehecka v Baez, M25 Prague, 2.20 with bet365

[kuklachert]

17 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Lehecka v Baez, M25 Prague, 2.20 with bet365 - Lost

Stats since the end of the corona break:

Total stake: 120.00 (24 bets)
Total winnings: 150.55 (143.02 after tax)

Since the start of this thread:

Total stake: 385.00 (77 bets)
Total winnings: 428.10 (406.70 after tax)
ROI: 11.2% (5.6%)

[kuklachert]

• Cervino Ruiz v Jorge, W15 Porto, 1.61 with William Hill
• Damas v Pauwels, M15 Melilla, 1.44 with bet365

[kuklachert]

On 9/23/2020 at 5:45 AM, kuklachert said:

• Cervino Ruiz v Jorge, W15 Porto, 1.61 with William Hill - Lost
• Damas v Pauwels, M15 Melilla, 1.44 with bet365 - Lost

• Alvarez Varona v Whitehouse, M15 Castelo Branco, 1.57 with William Hill

[kuklachert]

On 9/24/2020 at 7:58 AM, kuklachert said:

• Alvarez Varona v Whitehouse, M15 Castelo Branco, 1.57 with William Hill - Won 7.85 (7.46)

• Shevchenko v Parker, M15 Monastir, 1.83 with bwin

[kuklachert]

• Talbi v Kubareva, W15 Monastir, 2.48 with Pinnacle

[kuklachert]

13 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Shevchenko v Parker, M15 Monastir, 1.83 with bwin - Lost

12 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Talbi v Kubareva, W15 Monastir, 2.48 with Pinnacle - Won 12.40 (11.78)

 

[kuklachert]

• Castelnuovo v Canter, M15 Forbach, 2.25 with bet365

[kuklachert]

On 9/28/2020 at 11:58 AM, kuklachert said:

• Castelnuovo v Canter, M15 Forbach, 2.25 with bet365 - Lost

• Nouza v De Greef, M25 Pardubice, 1.44 with bet365

[kuklachert]

On 9/29/2020 at 2:35 PM, kuklachert said:

• Nouza v De Greef, M25 Pardubice, 1.44 with bet365 - Lost

• Strombachs v Geerts, M15 Forbach, 1.50 with bet365

[kuklachert]

On 9/30/2020 at 7:04 PM, kuklachert said:

• Strombachs v Geerts, M15 Forbach, 1.50 with bet365 - Won 7.50 (7.13)

• Ignatik v Velotti, M25 Pardubice, 1.80 with bwin

[kuklachert]

9 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Ignatik v Velotti, M25 Pardubice, 1.80 with bwin - Lost

• Tirante v Grigelis, M15 Monastir, 2.00 with bet365

[kuklachert]

• Geerts v Ejupovic, M15 Forbach, 2.25 with bwin

[kuklachert]

On 10/2/2020 at 6:23 PM, kuklachert said:

• Tirante v Grigelis, M15 Monastir, 2.00 with bet365 - Lost

On 10/3/2020 at 11:20 AM, kuklachert said:

• Geerts v Ejupovic, M15 Forbach, 2.25 with bwin - Won 11.25 (10.69)

Was tempted to take Geerts one more time today at 2.10 but his opponent Cornut Chauvinc looked really impressive this week and might have a noticeable home advantage today in case France allows an indoor crowd for the final.

So it's time for a roundup. Stats since the last update:

Total stake: 55.00 (11 bets)
Total winnings: 39.00 (37.05 after tax)

Since the start of this thread:

Total stake: 440.00 (88 bets)
Total winnings: 467.10 (443.75 after tax)
ROI: 6.2% (0.9%)

[kuklachert]

• Delage v Tenti, M15 Monastir, 2.50 with Pinnacle

[kuklachert]

7 hours ago, kuklachert said:

• Delage v Tenti, M15 Monastir, 2.50 with Pinnacle - Won 12.50 (11.88)

• Doumbia v Borges, M15 Setubal, 1.61 with bet365

[kuklachert]

On 10/6/2020 at 5:11 PM, kuklachert said:

• Doumbia v Borges, M15 Setubal, 1.61 with bet365 - Won 8.05 (7.65)

• Vilardo v Kumar, M15 Sharm El Sheikh, 1.67 with bwin