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Betting on ITF tennis tournaments using statistical models


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27 minutes ago, kuklachert said:

A fitting end to this week, the match again being decided against me by a couple of points. Weekly summary:

Total stake: 125.00
Total winnings: 106.95 (102.10 after tax)

Totals since thread start:

Total stake: 170.00
Total winnings: 159.40 (152.18)
ROI: -6.2% (-10.5%)

Going on a small break, will continue posting towards the end of next week. Hope you'll miss me. 😄

enjoy your break 🎉🎉

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First results: I will post totals/ROI at the end of each week.

Hi all, in this thread I'll be sharing the results of my bets on ITF tournaments which I place using a model-based approach. Why ITF? ITF tournaments (lowest tier of professional tennis

Roundup of the first week: Total stake: 45.00 Total winnings: 52.45 (50.08 after tax) ROI: 16.6% (11.3% after tax)

On 2/23/2020 at 11:02 AM, kuklachert said:
  • Touly v Tubello, W25 Macon quals, 1.4 with bet365 - Won 7.00 (6.65)
12 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Arn v Partaud, W25 Macon quals, 1.72 with bet365 - Won 8.60 (8.17)
  • Vicens Mas v Desperrier, W25 Macon quals, 1.61 with bet365 - Won 8.05 (7.65)
  • Abanda v Whittle, W25 Rancho Santa Fe, 1.61 with bet365 - Won 8.05 (7.65)
12 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Das v Desyatnik, M15 Vale Do Lobo quals, 1.50 with Betclic - Won 7.50 (7.13)

Going on a break was obviously useful.

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18 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • McHugh v Gautier, M25 Sunderland, 2.20 with bet365 - Lost
8 hours ago, kuklachert said:
  • Di Giuseppe v Bulgaru, W25 Macon, 1.47 with Betclic - Lost
  • Khotkov v Galus, M15 Sharm el Sheikh quals, 2.07 with Betclic - Won 10.35 (9.83)
  • Abanda v Sebov, W25 Rancho Santa Fe, 1.50 with Betclic
Edited by kuklachert
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33 minutes ago, kuklachert said:
  • Abanda v Sebov, W25 Rancho Santa Fe, 1.50 with Betclic

Abanda went down to 1.28 almost immediately after my post (that's how my picks influence the market already 😁), so I won't count the match to my overall stats regardless of the outcome (still at least 2 hours before kick-off). 

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On 2/26/2020 at 9:29 PM, kuklachert said:
  • Berberovic v Hoedt, W15 Monastir, 2.75 with bet365 - Lost
  • Toledo Bague v Maroszan, M25 Antalya, 1.72 with bet365 - Won 8.60 (8.17)
On 2/27/2020 at 10:12 AM, kuklachert said:
  • Mashtakov v Cayetano March, M15 Heraklion, 2.10 with bet365 - Lost
  • Murray Sharan v Hesse, W25 Sunderland, 2.25 with bet365
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Couldn't find any more value in the odds until now, so time for a weekly roundup:

Since last update:

  • Total stake: 70.00 (14 bets)
  • Total winnings: 88.20 (83.79 after tax)

Since thread start:

  • Total stake: 240.00 (48 bets)
  • Total winnings: 247.60 (235.97)
  • ROI: 3.2% (-1.7%)

Even on a short distance, the effect of the German winnings tax is already obvious.

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  • 5 months later...

ITF tournaments are back and I'll be continuing this thread. 

In the first weeks I'm definitely going to be a bit more cautious with my betting.

The break was almost half a year long, and my models don't have the information on all exhibitions played in the meantime. Also it's hard to tell whether the data from exhibitions is in any way useful when betting on competitive matches where points are at stake. But I hope the first Futures will provide some workable data. 

Stats as per the beginning of the corona break are as follows:

  • Total stake: 265.00
  • Total winnings: 277.55 (264.42 after tax)
  • ROI: 4.74% (-0.22% after tax).
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