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2019 Scottish National / Spring Cup - Tips & Trends


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Two big handicaps this weekend, one on the flat and one over jumps.

335 Ayr

4m (3m7f176y) Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Screen Shot 2019-04-08 at 10.39.58.png

 

Trends:

9/10 Ran within 45 days
9/10 Carried 11st 3 or less
8/10 Aged 8 or more
7/10 rated 145 or less
14/20 Placed last time out
16/22 ran at least 5 times this season
21/21 ran over 3m1f at least 
 

 

 

240 Newbury

1m (Str) Elite Racing Club Supporting Greatwood Spring Cup Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+)

Screen Shot 2019-04-08 at 10.41.46.png

Trends:

8/10 Aged 4 or 5
7/10 Drawn higher than 10
7/10 Had a prep race this year
7/10 carried less than 9st 1lb
6/10 Rated over 86
14/21 finished in first 6 last time

 

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Spring cup 

Ripp orf    190

Beringer  190 

Red starlight   187 

Very interesting race ....these 3 look clear of rest ....hannon red starlight is lightly race and has been running well at listed level non hcap but a mark of 100 is high so I'll scrub ......top 2 are almost matched pound for pound ....weighted to virtually dead heat at 8 and 10 they look very good value bets especially ripp orf who has Ryan Moore in the saddle Saturday ....early prices look very generous 

2x 10pt wins 8 and 10/1  willh  

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Selections

Scottish National

9/10 Ran within 45 days
We lose Crosspark, Cogry, Red Infantry, Cloth Cap, Mysteree, Geronimo, Doing Fine


9/10 Carried 11st 3 or less
We lose Beware The Bear, Sizing Cadelco


8/10 Aged 8 or more
We lose Blue Flight, Dingo Dollar, Beau De Brizais, Chic Name

7/10 rated 145 or less
We lose Vintage Clouds


16/22 ran at least 5 times this season
We lose Crosshue Boy, Skipthecuddles, Big River, Impulsive Star, Arthurs Gift

Kingswell Theatre, Chidswell, Acde, 

21/21 ran over 3m1f at least 

Out Of The Handicap
We lose Van Gogh Du Granit, Morney Wing, Rathlin Rose

Cant split these three
1pt EW Takingrisks, 28/1 Ladbrokes (first 6)
1pt EW Brian Boranha, 25/1 Ladbrokes (first 6)
1pt EW Caroles Destrier 20/1 Ladbrokes (first 6)

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Spring Cup

8/10 Aged 4 or 5
We lose Circus Couture, Banditry, Chiefofchiefs, Chatez, Third Time Lucky
Gulf Of Poets, Greenside


7/10 Drawn higher than 10
We lose Plutonian, Red Starlight, George Of Hearts, Borodin, History Writer


7/10 Had a prep race this year
We lose Escobar, Fire Brigade, Ibraz, Indeed, Waty, Bubble & Squeak


7/10 carried less than 9st 1lb
We lose Another Batt, Masham Star, Ripp Orf, Humbert, South Seas, 


14/21 finished in first 6 last time
We lose Raydiance

Selections

1pt EW Pattie 33/1 BetVictor (5 places)
1pt EW Exec Chef 10/1 BetVictor (5 places)

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On 4/9/2019 at 1:26 PM, richard-westwood said:

Spring cup 

Ripp orf    190

Beringer  190 

Red starlight   187 

Very interesting race ....these 3 look clear of rest ....hannon red starlight is lightly race and has been running well at listed level non hcap but a mark of 100 is high so I'll scrub ......top 2 are almost matched pound for pound ....weighted to virtually dead heat at 8 and 10 they look very good value bets especially ripp orf who has Ryan Moore in the saddle Saturday ....early prices look very generous 

2x 10pt wins 8 and 10/1  willh  

Beringer non runner .....really happy with ripp orf around 10/1 ....rerated race has dragged in fire brigade 22/1 and south seas 33/1 at huge prices and in such an open race I'd rather be on something huge so I'll try 10pt wins on those too

Fire brigade 10pts win 22/1 willh

South seas 10pts win 33/1 willh

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