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2019 Greatwood Gold Cup - Tips & Trends


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Managed to rate the top 19 current decs 

....and left 2 clear 

Happy diva   299

Mercian prince 294

Very open race ....and Nichols has a 50% strike rate over past 12 years so anything he sends warrants serious attention .....mercian prince is a little high in weights but seemed to improve dramatically last time and won as he liked ....has been penalised but could be anything based on that 

I love reviewing ratings as on paper happy diva actually looks a cert .....last run 3rd placed horse was rated 140 ....2nd placed horse was 4 lengths in front seeming to Frank the 150 rating whereas happy diva won by 1 length seemingly franking himself as a 150 horse ....he runs here off 142 seemingly 8lbs well in .....that's on paper of course but that was over distance too and current 9/1 with a couple of firms looks very tasty .........waiting for tomorrows decs but at the moment ew bets I think on both 

 

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  • BillyHills changed the title to 2019 Greatwood Gold Cup - Tips & Trends

240 Newbury

2m4f (2m3f187y) William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (Class 1) (5yo+)

Previous Winners (Abandoned last year)

Screen Shot 2019-02-27 at 22.17.48.png

9/10 Aged 8 or under
9/10 Carried 11st 3lbs or less
9/10 Ran within 35 days
6/10 rated 139+
9/15 Finished first 4 last time
10/15 Ran at least 3 times this season
9/15 Won at 2m4f


 

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Selection

9/10 Aged 8 or under
We lose Warriors Tale, Master Dee, Javert, War Sound, Valdez, Gala Ball, Value At Risk, Shanahans Turn


9/10 Carried 11st 3lbs or less
We lose Dolos, Mercian Prince, San Benedeto


9/10 Ran within 35 days
We lose Dustin Des Mottes


6/10 Rated 139+
We lose Zalvados, Nightfly


9/15 Won at 2m4f
We lose Azzuri

Selection
1pt Happy Diva 7/1 Paddy Power

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2.40 – William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f

14/15 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight   (1,2,3,4,5)
13/15 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger   (7,8,10,12,15)
13/15 – Had run within the last 5 weeks   (6,9,13,14)
13/15 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously   (16)

Azzuri 2 Pts EW @ 28\1 Ladbrokes 1-4 1/4

Edited by Xtc12
Never accounted for Javert No.5
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I've got a short list of 3

Happy Diva, Dustin des Mottes and Mercian Prince

Happy Diva will probably go off favourite but I'd take her on as nearly all her wins have been in Mares races and the only two wins in open company have been 3 runner affairs. I just don't fancy her chances in a big field of geldings. Obviously it's a sexist stereotype but I expect Mares to be a bit smaller and a bit more timid and to get bullied out of it by a big field of grizzly geldings. My theory could be put to the test at the fences ……. does she give way and hold back a bit or jump up confidently in and amongst the boys

So that's left me with ……..

Dustin des Mottes - ew at 14/1

Mercian Prince - ew at 14/1

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