BillyHills Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Start of a new year start of a new thread. As previously discussed this is an attempt to narrow down the amount of selections thrown up by the PL Tips. I have been tracking the performance at every race course since we started the Tips in August 2016. It is quite clear that some tracks consistently perform well and others the very opposite. I have no idea why this is so but figures don't normally lie when tested in full. One thing I have noticed is that some races or instances the performance dips so this year I am going one step further and attempting to omit the worst offenders. I accept we will miss some winners along the way by doing this. Races or instances to leave alone - (this may be added to over time) 1. Bumpers 2. Sellers 3. Claimers 4. Odds On favourites 5. Novices/Maidens where fancied horse(s) have not ran before (discretion will be applied here rather than any exact ruling) 6. Hunter Chases All bets will be staked at 10pts win or 5pts EW Prices will be from bet365 or PP at the time of the post in this thread, these may differ from the Tips page as these are published between 4.30 and 6pm. corky and foxinexile 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimmyB Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Thanks @BillyHills - just wondering if you will be running the analysis of the Top 10 courses on the basis of your narrowed down criteria, and if it has made much of a difference in terms of the courses that come out best? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 Top Tracks for January Calendar (AW may add fixtures at late notice) Jan 1 Catterick, Musselburgh Jan 2 Newcastle Jan 3 Chelmsford Jan 4 Kempton Jan 5 Newcastle, Wincanton, Kempton Jan 6 Newcastle Jan 7 Musselburgh Jan 8 Newcastle Jan 9 Taunton, Kempton Jan 10 Catterick, Chelmsford Jan 12 Newcastle, Kempton Jan 13 Kelso Jan 15 Newcastle, Kempton Jan 16 Kempton Jan 17 Newcastle, Wincanton Jan 18 Musselburgh, Kempton Jan 19 Ascot, Taunton Jan 22 Kelso, Newcastle Jan 23 Catterick, Kempton Jan 24 Chelmsford Jan 25 Newcastle Jan 26 Chelmsford Jan 28 Kempton Jan 29 Newcastle Jan 31 Newcastle, Wincanton   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 3 minutes ago, TimmyB said: Thanks @BillyHills - just wondering if you will be running the analysis of the Top 10 courses on the basis of your narrowed down criteria, and if it has made much of a difference in terms of the courses that come out best? Timmy, In a word, No I have not done a complete analysis using these omissions. Its quite difficult to do with the way the spreadsheet saves the data at the minute. I am told this will improve during 2019 so a more in depth look may be possible. Lets just say its a gut feeling having done thousands of races and having to settle the results for the sheets. I know where i'm wasting money more times than not, if that makes sense. This happens on all courses so I don't think it will have any impact on what gets into the top 10 to be honest. One thing I will be doing this year is keeping a track of every type of race for the included selections, whether its Flat, NH, Class 3 or Class 6, handicap or graded etc.... and after a while that may also throw up something. Cheers TimmyB 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimmyB Posted December 31, 2018 Share Posted December 31, 2018 Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 50 minutes ago, TimmyB said: Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp! Yes Timmy, you should enter mate I'm doing bigger prices in that comp this year!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted December 31, 2018 Author Share Posted December 31, 2018 Time Track Race Type Class Horse  Odds 12.25 Catterick Novices Hurdle Class 4 Tight Call (IRE)  3.00 1.00 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Frozon EW 11.00 1.35 Catterick Novices Chase Class 4 Braavos EW 9.00 2.45 Catterick Handicap Chase Class 4 Manwell (IRE)  2.88 3.20 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Samtu (IRE)  8.50        12.30 Musselburgh Novices Hurdle Class 4 Liva (IRE)  3.50 1.05 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 3 Dans Le Vent (FR)  2.75 1.40 Musselburgh Handicap Chase Class 2 Forth Bridge  4.50 2.15 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 2 Chica Buena (IRE)  5.00 2.50 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Kajaki (IRE)  2.25 3.25 Musselburgh Handicap Chase Class 4 Always Lion (IRE)  3.50 big punt and roughbets 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Results Manwell Won 9/4, Tight Call NR Disappointing start with 4 2nd's at Musselburgh!! We did miss a 2/5 loser though!! Stakes: 110pts Returns: 42.50ptsTotal (67.50) Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 1, 2019 Author Share Posted January 1, 2019 Â 3.35 Newcastle Maiden Class 5 Ice Pyramid (IRE) 2.88 4.10 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Breaking Records (IRE) 5.50 4.45 Newcastle Novices Class 5 Fiction Writer (USA) 2.88 5.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Popping Corks (IRE) 8.00 5.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Newmarket Warrior 3.00 6.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Rey Loopy (IRE) 5.50 6.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Royal Prospect (IRE) 3.00 7.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Windforpower (IRE) 5.50 Â Â Â Â Â Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brekstel Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth. Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 11 hours ago, Brekstel said: Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth. Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.  Figures will tell you that about 65% of odds on favourites win but in certain types of race they are very vulnerable and very poor value. In races where all of the form is tried and tested like Group races for instance they are more reliable. Beats me why some people want to back an odds on shot in a seller though! Re: Software Not sure mate, I suppose systems are similar, anything that takes the emotion out of selecting horses is good for me! I much prefer a set of figures telling me which horse to back ie: my ratings Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 2, 2019 Author Share Posted January 2, 2019 Update later  4.45 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Steal The Scene (IRE) EW 13.00 5.20 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 4 Lacan (IRE) EW 10.00 5.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 2 Royal Birth 5.50 6.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 4 Shamshon (IRE) 5.00 6.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Mr Potter 5.00 7.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Konigin 7.00 7.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Sharp Operator EW 9.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brekstel Posted January 3, 2019 Share Posted January 3, 2019 (edited) A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. Edited January 3, 2019 by Brekstel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 1 hour ago, Brekstel said: A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. No idea mate, none of these recommendations were mine. I leave it up to the individual to bet them how they like. I know some will bet anything 5/1 or over EW as its a money back job if its placed etc..... The 8/1 is just something we came up with as a cut-off point for EW bets, we had to start somewhere and thats a point I think the majority would accept as a fair marker for an EW bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Ok results time Not a great start to the year, we had our first 'missed' bet today when the fav in the first drifted to odds against and won. Although the race was omitted for 2 reasons, it was odds on last night and the main danger was a debutant so i'm happy with the decision. Newcastle: Ray Loopy 9/2 Chelmsford: Shamshon 4/1 Loss of 55pts on the 2 days Totals: (122.50) Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 3, 2019 Author Share Posted January 3, 2019 Kempton: Third Race omitted due to odds on fav.  2.10 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Mr Potter EW 15.00 2.45 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Choral Music  8.50 3.50 Kempton Handicap Class 3 Chiefofchiefs  4.33 4.20 Kempton Non-Handicap Class 2 Sunsprite (IRE)  4.50 4.50 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Arlecchinos Arc  7.50 5.20 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Gorhams Cave EW 15.00 big punt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Results Mr Potter NR Chiefofchiefs Won 100/30 (op 13/2 last night!) Sunsprite NR Gorhams Cave 3rd 14/1 Stakes 60pts Returns: 85.83pts Totals: (96.67)pts *Just realised i missed Sharp Operator EW the other day and settled it as a loser. Should have been £15 returns and not a £10 lossTotals (71.67)pts  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 4, 2019 Author Share Posted January 4, 2019 Big day coming up 2 races omitted : 415 Kempton (Maiden no form) 310 Wincanton (Bumper)  4.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Elysian Lady EW 11.00 5.15 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Molten Lava (IRE)  7.50 5.45 Kempton Handicap Class 3 Ventura Blues (IRE) EW 10.00 6.15 Kempton Handicap Class 2 Castlelyons (IRE) EW 11.00 6.45 Kempton Handicap Class 4 Wedding Date  3.25 7.15 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Moon of Baroda EW 10.00 7.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Power Home (IRE) EW 12.00  11.55 Newcastle Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Suggestion  3.50 12.25 Newcastle Novices Chase Class 4 Hawk High (IRE)  5.00 12.55 Newcastle Novices Hurdle Class 4 Lord Of The Rock (IRE)  3.00 1.30 Newcastle Handicap Chase Class 5 Outnumbered (IRE)  4.50 2.00 Newcastle Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Petite Ganache (IRE)  4.00 2.35 Newcastle Handicap Chase Class 3 Thedrinkymeister (IRE)  3.25  12.30 Wincanton Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Desiremoi Dauthie (FR) EW 9.00 1.05 Wincanton Handicap Nov Chase Class 4 Lex Talionis EW 13.00 1.35 Wincanton Novices Hurdle Class 4 Caro Des Flos EW 9.00 2.05 Wincanton Handicap Nov Chase Class 3 Caltex (FR)  6.50 2.40 Wincanton Handicap Hurdle Class 3 Tight Call (IRE) EW 13.00 3.15 Wincanton Handicap Chase Class 2 Theinval (FR)  6.50 3.50 Wincanton Maiden Hurdle Class 5 Le Ligerien (FR)  5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 Results KP:Â Castlelyons 2nd 10/1 NC: Hawk High Won 4/1 (R4), Petite Ganache Won 3/1 WN:Â Desiremoi Dauthie 2nd 8/1, Caro Des Flos NR, Tight Call 2nd 12/1 Stakes: 200pts Returns: 136ptsTotals: (135.67)pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 Sunday Omitted 300 Kheros as first 2 in market are debutants.  1.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Galileos Spear (FR)  5.00 1.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Something Brewing (FR) 6.50 2.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Tor EW 9.00 2.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Mr Carbonator  7.50 3.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Fuwairt (IRE)  4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 6, 2019 Author Share Posted January 6, 2019 Just a NR at Newcastle (40pts) Only 3 at Musselburgh tomorrow First 2 races are odds on favs, Ontopoftheworld and Nefyn Point Last race is a Bumper (Alright Sunshine)   1.55 Musselburgh Handicap Nov Chase Class 4 Henrys Joy (IRE)  3.00 2.25 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Sarvi  4.50 3.00 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Tyrell (IRE) EW 21.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 Results Henrys Joy Won 9/4 Stakes 30pts Returns 32.50ptsTotals: (173.17) Â foxinexile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 7, 2019 Author Share Posted January 7, 2019 2 races omitted 545 Set Piece (odds on), 645 Lorna Cole (odds on)  3.40 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Archive (FR) EW 13.00 4.10 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 King Oswald (USA) EW 10.00 4.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 3 Woodside Wonder  6.50 5.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 3 Outrage  4.50 6.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Cherry Oak (IRE)  5.00 7.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Wiff Waff  5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 Update later 325 Taun omitted = Hunter Chase/odds on  Wed 4.15 Kempton Handicap Class 7 Be Bold EW 11.00 4.45 Kempton Novices Class 5 Enchanting Man  2.88 5.15 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Emma Point (USA) EW 11.00 5.45 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Magic Mirror  4.50 6.15 Kempton Non-Handicap Class 2 Corinthia Knight (IRE) 3.75 6.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Nananita (IRE)  4.50 7.15 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Viola Park  6.50 7.45 Kempton Handicap Class 4 Human Nature (IRE) 3.25        1.10 Taunton Novices Hurdle Class 4 Sign Of War (IRE)  5.50 1.45 Taunton Maiden Hurdle Class 4 Le Ligerien (FR)  3.75 2.20 Taunton Handicap Chase Class 3 Still Believing (IRE)  3.25 2.55 Taunton Handicap Chase Class 3 Style De Garde (FR) 3.50        4.00 Taunton Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Milldean Silva (IRE)  3.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019 Results Pretty hopeless at the moment!! Just 1 winner at 11/2 and a place at 17/2 : 80.63 Loss: 109.37 Totals: (282.54)pts  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 9, 2019 Author Share Posted January 9, 2019        12.25 Catterick Hurdle Class 4 Travel Lightly  3.25 1.00 Catterick Handicap Novices Hurdle Class 4 Come On Charlie  2.50 2.45 Catterick Handicap Chase Class 3 Same Circus (IRE)  4.50 3.15 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 4 New List EW 10.00 3.50 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 4 The Steward (USA)  7.50   4.15 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 5 Caledonia Duchess EW 11.00 4.45 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 7 Ertidaad (IRE)  8.00 5.15 Chelmsford City Novices Class 4 Themaxwecan (IRE)  4.50 5.50 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 4 Global Art  7.00 6.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 5 Enthaar  4.50 6.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Caledonia Laird  7.00 7.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Your Band  3.50 7.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Poppy May (IRE)  6.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Results Cat: -50pts Chl: +5ptsTotals: (327.54)pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Sat Omit 500 Newcastle  3.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 7 Good Man (IRE)  5.50 4.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Glory of Paris (IRE)  3.75 4.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Molten Lava (IRE)  5.00 5.00 Newcastle Novices Class 4 Kareena Kapoor  1.72 5.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 3 Azzeccagarbugli (IRE) 2.75 6.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Helovaplan (IRE)  4.50 6.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Capla Demon EW 9.00 7.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Giacomo Casanova EW 13.00        12.20 Kempton Hurdle Class 4 Tiffin Top  3.25 12.55 Kempton Novices Hurdle Class 3 Lomachenko  2.10 1.30 Kempton Handicap Chase Class 3 Amour de Nuit (IRE)  2.50 2.05 Kempton Chase Listed Race Top Notch (FR)  2.63 2.40 Kempton Handicap Hurdle Listed Race Doux Pretender (FR)  8.50 3.15 Kempton Handicap Chase Class 2 Barney Dwan (IRE)  4.00 3.45 Kempton Handicap Hurdle Class 3 Oakley  4.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Results NC: Won 12/1 EW KP: Won 13/8, Won 9/2 Stakes: 140pts Returns 163.25pts Totals: (304.29)pts  foxinexile 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted January 12, 2019 Author Share Posted January 12, 2019 Sunday Omit first race - odds on  12.30 Kelso Novices Hurdle Class 4 Skandiburg (FR)  1.63 1.00 Kelso Novices Hurdle Class 4 Lord Yeats  2.10 1.35 Kelso Handicap Hurdle Class 2 Martila (FR)  3.25 2.05 Kelso Handicap Chase Class 2 Mount Mews (IRE)  3.25 2.40 Kelso Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Choochoobugaloo  2.25 3.10 Kelso Handicap Chase Class 3 Groundunderrepair  3.25 3.40 Kelso Handicap Chase Class 4 Achill Road Boy (IRE)  2.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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