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BillyHills

PL Tips Top Tracks 2019

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Start of a new year start of a new thread.

As previously discussed this is an attempt to narrow down the amount of selections thrown up by the PL Tips. I have been tracking the performance at every race course since we started the Tips in August 2016. It is quite clear that some tracks consistently perform well and others the very opposite. I have no idea why this is so but figures don't normally lie when tested in full.

One thing I have noticed is that some races or instances the performance dips so this year I am going one step further and attempting to omit the worst offenders. I accept we will miss some winners along the way by doing this.

Races or instances to leave alone - (this may be added to over time)

1. Bumpers
2. Sellers
3. Claimers
4. Odds On favourites
5. Novices/Maidens where fancied horse(s) have not ran before
(discretion will be applied here rather than any exact ruling)
6. Hunter Chases

All bets will be staked at 10pts win or 5pts EW
Prices will be from bet365 or PP at the time of the post in this thread, these may differ from the Tips page as these are published between 4.30 and 6pm.

:ok

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Top Tracks for January

Screen Shot 2018-12-31 at 12.04.58.png

Calendar (AW may add fixtures at late notice)

Jan 1 Catterick, Musselburgh
Jan 2 Newcastle
Jan 3 Chelmsford
Jan 4 Kempton
Jan 5 Newcastle, Wincanton, Kempton
Jan 6 Newcastle
Jan 7 Musselburgh
Jan 8 Newcastle
Jan 9 Taunton, Kempton
Jan 10 Catterick, Chelmsford
Jan 12 Newcastle, Kempton
Jan 13 Kelso
Jan 15 Newcastle, Kempton
Jan 16 Kempton
Jan 17 Newcastle, Wincanton
Jan 18 Musselburgh, Kempton
Jan 19 Ascot, Taunton
Jan 22 Kelso, Newcastle
Jan 23 Catterick, Kempton
Jan 24 Chelmsford
Jan 25 Newcastle
Jan 26 Chelmsford
Jan 28 Kempton
Jan 29 Newcastle
Jan 31 Newcastle, Wincanton

 

 

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3 minutes ago, TimmyB said:

Thanks @BillyHills - just wondering if you will be running the analysis of the Top 10 courses on the basis of your narrowed down criteria, and if it has made much of a difference in terms of the courses that come out best?

Timmy, In a word, No I have not done a complete analysis using these omissions. Its quite difficult to do with the way the spreadsheet saves the data at the minute. I am told this will improve during 2019 so a more in depth look may be possible.
Lets just say its a gut feeling having done thousands of races and having to settle the results for the sheets. I know where i'm wasting money more times than not, if that makes sense. This happens on all courses so I don't think it will have any impact on what gets into the top 10 to be honest.

One thing I will be doing this year is keeping a track of every type of race for the included selections, whether its Flat, NH, Class 3 or Class 6, handicap or graded etc.... and after a while that may also throw up something.

Cheers:ok

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Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp!

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50 minutes ago, TimmyB said:

Thanks, that's really helpful. It's been an interesting first year betting on the horses and I've learnt loads from you and many others on the site. Here's to an even better 2019 - and I may even find some time to enter my own selections in the naps comp!

Yes Timmy, you should enter mate:ok

I'm doing bigger prices in that comp this year!!

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138">
Time Track Race Type Class 138"> Horse   Odds
12.25 Catterick Novices Hurdle Class 4 Tight Call (IRE)   3.00
1.00 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Frozon EW 11.00
1.35 Catterick Novices Chase Class 4 Braavos EW 9.00
2.45 Catterick Handicap Chase Class 4 Manwell (IRE)   2.88
3.20 Catterick Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Samtu (IRE)   8.50
             
12.30 Musselburgh Novices Hurdle Class 4 Liva (IRE)   3.50
1.05 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 3 Dans Le Vent (FR)   2.75
1.40 Musselburgh Handicap Chase Class 2 Forth Bridge   4.50
2.15 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 2 Chica Buena (IRE)   5.00
2.50 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Kajaki (IRE)   2.25
3.25 Musselburgh Handicap Chase Class 4 Always Lion (IRE)   3.50

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3.35 Newcastle Maiden Class 5 Ice Pyramid (IRE) 2.88
4.10 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Breaking Records (IRE) 5.50
4.45 Newcastle Novices Class 5 Fiction Writer (USA) 2.88
5.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Popping Corks (IRE) 8.00
5.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Newmarket Warrior 3.00
6.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Rey Loopy (IRE) 5.50
6.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Royal Prospect (IRE) 3.00
7.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Windforpower (IRE) 5.50
           

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Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth.

Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.   

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11 hours ago, Brekstel said:

Makes sense for BH to focus on the more reliable courses and race types. Just out of interest and not that you'd need it with the PL Tips delivering, does anyone on the forum use software to decide on bets? I've thought about it in the past but never looked into it in any depth.

Re the 2/5 loser, it never ceases to amaze me how many odd-ons horses (and I don't back odds-on myself) go down. Someone somewhere is decreeing these horses are more or less a shoo-in yet in reality a sizeable percentage don't live up to expectations, to say the least, and no doubt many punters fall for it.   

Figures will tell you that about 65% of odds on favourites win but in certain types of race they are very vulnerable and very poor value. In races where all of the form is tried and tested like Group races for instance they are more reliable. Beats me why some people want to back an odds on shot in a seller though!

Re: Software
Not sure mate, I suppose systems are similar, anything that takes the emotion out of selecting horses is good for me! I much prefer a set of figures telling me which horse to back ie: my ratings:ok

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Update later

 

4.45 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Steal The Scene (IRE) EW 13.00
5.20 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 4 Lacan (IRE) EW 10.00
5.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 2 Royal Birth 5.50
6.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 4 Shamshon (IRE) 5.00
6.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Mr Potter 5.00
7.25 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Konigin 7.00
7.55 Chelmsford City Handicap Class 6 Sharp Operator EW 9.00

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A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. :\

Edited by Brekstel

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1 hour ago, Brekstel said:

A couple of queries on odds....I recall reading on a previous thread that 6/4 was the minimum price to take for (top ten tracks) PL tips. Is this generally found to be the case? Another poster said he backs anything 6/1 or above each way, albeit it's 8/1 and above which is advised e-w for PL bets. 6/1-15/2 single bet wins are nice - especially when the odds drift - but it's also frustrating when you see a few of them placing and you've backed win only. :\

No idea mate, none of these recommendations were mine. I leave it up to the individual to bet them how they like. I know some will bet anything 5/1 or over EW as its a money back job if its placed etc.....
The 8/1 is just something we came up with as a cut-off point for EW bets, we had to start somewhere and thats a point I think the majority would accept as a fair marker for an EW bet. :ok

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Ok results time

Not a great start to the year, we had our first 'missed' bet today when the fav in the first drifted to odds against and won. Although the race was omitted for 2 reasons, it was odds on last night and the main danger was a debutant so i'm happy with the decision.

Newcastle: Ray Loopy 9/2
Chelmsford: Shamshon 4/1

Loss of 55pts on the 2 days
Totals: (122.50)

 

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Kempton: Third Race omitted due to odds on fav.

 

2.10 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Mr Potter EW 15.00
2.45 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Choral Music   8.50
3.50 Kempton Handicap Class 3 Chiefofchiefs   4.33
4.20 Kempton Non-Handicap Class 2 Sunsprite (IRE)   4.50
4.50 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Arlecchinos Arc    7.50
5.20 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Gorhams Cave EW 15.00

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Results
Mr Potter NR
Chiefofchiefs Won 100/30 (op 13/2 last night!)
Sunsprite NR
Gorhams Cave 3rd 14/1

Stakes 60pts
Returns: 85.83pts
Totals: (96.67)pts

*Just realised i missed Sharp Operator EW the other day and settled it as a loser.
Should have been £15 returns and not a £10 loss

Totals (71.67)pts
 

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Big day coming up

2 races omitted : 415 Kempton (Maiden no form) 310 Wincanton (Bumper)

 

4.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Elysian Lady EW 11.00
5.15 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Molten Lava (IRE)   7.50
5.45 Kempton Handicap Class 3 Ventura Blues (IRE) EW 10.00
6.15 Kempton Handicap Class 2 Castlelyons (IRE) EW 11.00
6.45 Kempton Handicap Class 4 Wedding Date   3.25
7.15 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Moon of Baroda EW 10.00
7.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Power Home (IRE) EW 12.00

 

11.55 Newcastle Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Suggestion   3.50
12.25 Newcastle Novices Chase Class 4 Hawk High (IRE)   5.00
12.55 Newcastle Novices Hurdle Class 4 Lord Of The Rock (IRE)   3.00
1.30 Newcastle Handicap Chase Class 5 Outnumbered (IRE)   4.50
2.00 Newcastle Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Petite Ganache (IRE)   4.00
2.35 Newcastle Handicap Chase Class 3 Thedrinkymeister (IRE)   3.25

 

12.30 Wincanton Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Desiremoi Dauthie (FR) EW 9.00
1.05 Wincanton Handicap Nov Chase Class 4 Lex Talionis EW 13.00
1.35 Wincanton Novices Hurdle Class 4 Caro Des Flos EW 9.00
2.05 Wincanton Handicap Nov Chase Class 3 Caltex (FR)   6.50
2.40 Wincanton Handicap Hurdle Class 3 Tight Call (IRE) EW 13.00
3.15 Wincanton Handicap Chase Class 2 Theinval (FR)   6.50
3.50 Wincanton Maiden Hurdle Class 5 Le Ligerien (FR)   5.00

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Sunday
Omitted 300 Kheros as first 2 in market are debutants.

 

1.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Galileos Spear (FR)   5.00
1.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Something Brewing (FR) 6.50
2.00 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Tor EW 9.00
2.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Mr Carbonator   7.50
3.30 Newcastle Handicap Class 4 Fuwairt (IRE)   4.50

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Just a NR at Newcastle (40pts)

Only 3 at Musselburgh tomorrow

First 2 races are odds on favs, Ontopoftheworld and Nefyn Point
Last race is a Bumper (Alright Sunshine)

 

 

1.55 Musselburgh Handicap Nov Chase Class 4 Henrys Joy (IRE)   3.00
2.25 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Sarvi   4.50
3.00 Musselburgh Handicap Hurdle Class 4 Tyrell (IRE) EW 21.00

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2 races omitted
545 Set Piece (odds on), 645 Lorna Cole (odds on)

 

3.40 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Archive (FR) EW 13.00
4.10 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 King Oswald (USA) EW 10.00
4.45 Newcastle Handicap Class 3 Woodside Wonder   6.50
5.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 3 Outrage   4.50
6.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 6 Cherry Oak (IRE)   5.00
7.15 Newcastle Handicap Class 5 Wiff Waff   5.00

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Update later

325 Taun omitted = Hunter Chase/odds on
 

Wed

4.15 Kempton Handicap Class 7 Be Bold EW 11.00
4.45 Kempton Novices Class 5 Enchanting Man   2.88
5.15 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Emma Point (USA) EW 11.00
5.45 Kempton Handicap Class 5 Magic Mirror   4.50
6.15 Kempton Non-Handicap Class 2 Corinthia Knight (IRE) 3.75
6.45 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Nananita (IRE)   4.50
7.15 Kempton Handicap Class 6 Viola Park   6.50
7.45 Kempton Handicap Class 4 Human Nature (IRE) 3.25
             
1.10 Taunton Novices Hurdle Class 4 Sign Of War (IRE)   5.50
1.45 Taunton Maiden Hurdle Class 4 Le Ligerien (FR)   3.75
2.20 Taunton Handicap Chase Class 3 Still Believing (IRE)   3.25
2.55 Taunton Handicap Chase Class 3 Style De Garde (FR) 3.50
             
4.00 Taunton Handicap Hurdle Class 5 Milldean Silva (IRE)   3.00

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