Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method

[Kentucky110]

How did the Min Ranking work out in the leagues? >2.5

I am Currently logging (England Only) the team with the Highest Over 78 Premiership and Over 80 for the other 3 leagues to see if there is any pattern for <2.5.

I Log all my Pre-game data for future reference

So for last weeks games (1st week) I have below the selections for over 2.5 goals

Perf Home and Perf Away = the average of the ELO ratings the teams have these are ranked in the same way as over 2.5 rankings (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)

Rank GagH and GagA = Rankings for goals against Home and Away for the current Game

Lge Pos H and Lge Pos A + League Positions for current Game (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)

I have another sheet that saves ALL the Data by Game Week for "Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method"

At the end of the season I can then look back at historical results and maybe tweak the method for the next season

I believe data is key when trying to beat the book and doing something different from the rest is always a good thing.

I am currently playing about with shots on target compared to goals scored decent link below for English leagues

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=basics_shotsontarget

and site for Shots on target for games played in Europe http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Keep playing about with the Ranking idea you may spot something that gives you a slight edge

I hope I have given you couple of tools and ideas to develop your own method I am always interested in other peoples methods as the majority of mine have been inspired by ideas taken from Punters Lounge so please keep posting

[darksidersfk]

3 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

How did the Min Ranking work out in the leagues? >2.5

I am Currently logging (England Only) the team with the Highest Over 78 Premiership and Over 80 for the other 3 leagues to see if there is any pattern for <2.5.

I Log all my Pre-game data for future reference

So for last weeks games (1st week) I have below the selections for over 2.5 goals

Perf Home and Perf Away = the average of the ELO ratings the teams have these are ranked in the same way as over 2.5 rankings (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)

Rank GagH and GagA = Rankings for goals against Home and Away for the current Game

Lge Pos H and Lge Pos A + League Positions for current Game (Data is not currently used in over 2.5)

I have another sheet that saves ALL the Data by Game Week for "Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method"

At the end of the season I can then look back at historical results and maybe tweak the method for the next season

I believe data is key when trying to beat the book and doing something different from the rest is always a good thing.

I am currently playing about with shots on target compared to goals scored decent link below for English leagues

http://www.footcharts.co.uk/index.cfm?task=basics_shotsontarget

and site for Shots on target for games played in Europe http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php

Keep playing about with the Ranking idea you may spot something that gives you a slight edge

I hope I have given you couple of tools and ideas to develop your own method I am always interested in other peoples methods as the majority of mine have been inspired by ideas taken from Punters Lounge so please keep posting

Well what u seed is pretty simple rank record compared to over or not over. So I just pick a few leagues and all the games for 2-3 days, and took all the rankings and placed them on an excel.

After the result of each match I just write in each ranks match yes ("y") or no ("n").

The numbers u see is the number of times that the game was over 2.5 and in what ranks game.

As we can see, between 30 and 50 rank, there was 18 games that ended up over 2.5 and only 12 ended under 2.5. This is curious cause the systems tell us to only bet under 20 right ?

I just did this to "test" and just see thing form a different perspective.

I love models and everything about them. My only problem is having the ideas but I can't build one cause I may know excel but not as a big advanced guy who knows excel programming. Other than that I don't know python or R.

Spend so many time looking into stats, reading books, reading strategies and systems but can't build my own. I'm so dumb.

 

In fact I already thought about u should introduce the shots ranking into this model, cause goals comes with shots ofc but I can't do it by myself so I just have the idea and not the real thing in paper.

[Kentucky110]

Here are my first Ideas regarding Shots on Target (Not yet built into any Selection methods Bu feel free to give your Ideas/Options or Opinions. Data copied from Footcharts

What does it tell us?

1st 2 columns For and Against are self explanatory next 2 are averages for games played

G v S column = Shots on Target For / Goals scored so Man City 31/11 = 2.82 they have a Ranking of 10 in the league

West Ham Lower down had 9 shots on target and only scored 1 goal they have a ranking of 1

Crystal Palace have had 12 shots on target and not scored Ranking them jt 19

If I were to reverse the ranking for G v S then Crystal Palace become jt 1st

I don't think Ranking G v S can give me much help But G v S may Man City score a Goal every 2.82 Shots on Target

Bournemouth score every 1.75 shots on target

Are Bournemouth more accurate than Man City? or Have they had Less opportunities?

I will need to study this one

Anyway the next column with the minus figures

This is the G VS rankings minus the Rankings for average games played This at first glance looked a little more promising as it appeared to show that Teams scoring goals had a high Rating. But Crystal Palace who have not scored get a rating of 6

S no G  this is Shots on Target for Minus Goals For I need to think if this data is useful

If anyone can come up with any suggestions/Ideas they would be greatly appreciated

Just a thought whilst I was typing this

Perhaps I should be looking at Shots Against this could be an Indication of a strong defence and then perhaps Rank  it with shots for that may give an indication of overall team Attack and Defence

[Kentucky110]

Todays over 2.5 selections Highlighted in red

[chrisgas]

Hi Kentucky110,

i've been following this thread for a little while now and would like to thank you for producing your spreadsheets and posting your bets. I will continue to follow this thread with interest. If I am correct in my assumption I believe you occasionally use the football data web site to source some of your data and also, you search for various templates to assist you in your development of spreadsheets. I have a spreadsheet which contains numerous systems - not necessarily successful and I'm not suggesting their worth following - but I utilise the CSV files produced by the football-data website. I thought perhaps, this sheet maybe of interest to you as it contains numerous Excell formulae  for manipulating data. I also use it to back test my systems to see if their profitable or not.

Anyway I wish you well with your systems and should you wish to browse my spreadsheet - which is not professional by any stretch of the imagination - then, let me know.

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @Kentucky110   

Feel free to share your info on the forum.  

[Kentucky110]

2 from 3 Just keeping my head in front

Ma have done better with a pin lets see what Tuesday brings

[Kentucky110]

Hi all after doing a bit more research regarding shots on target I came across the below very interesting link

https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com/2013/1/11/3857360/analysis-shots-vs-shots-on-target

After doing a little studying I decided to build my take of this idea into my model and the 3 games it gave me were

Note These are not being posted as selections as the model was made AFTER the result was known

 result 2-3

 result 1-3

 result 3-1

What I find interesting is not that all 3 were over 2.5 goals nor that they were all over 3.5 goals

What jumped out at me was the two games that had the lower rating in red

Quote from earlier post

"I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)"

Barnsley won (lower rating)

Crawley Town won (lower rating)

Preston v West Brom Both had low ratings

Is there an opportunity here to perhaps Back Win and over 2.5 goals ?

I will be keeping a close eye on this one and will keep you updated

 

[Kentucky110]

We have a couple of games for tomorrow

 Teams highlighted in red are the Over 2.5 selections

Just for info I have the games that use the shots on Target Model these are NOT selections but just seeing how they perform

 Looking to see if this is Scnuthorpe win and Over 2.5

Same selection as above Just different Ratings

Will post Weds selection in Championship after Tuesdays results have been added

[Kentucky110]

Tonight's Game Ratings

Sheff Utd v West Brom is the selection

Shots on Target Ratings (NOT a selection Just watching)

 Same game both teams with low ratings

Last nights results 2 games Both over 2.5

The 2 shots on target games Both over 3.5 but again the interesting one Scnuthorpe win and over 2.5

I will keep recording the Shots on Target model

 

Regards

Ken

[Kentucky110]

On 26/09/2018 at 11:09 PM, darksidersfk said:

I tested this system this last 2 to 3 days between a few leagues (not only england) and this are the results.

Hope you guys understand the meanings. y= yes ; n=no ; <=5 = Lessor equal than five ranking ; 5~10= Between 5 and 10 ranking and so on...

All of this was hand made in excel, basically I copied the games ranks for each day and after the result i just put "y" or "n" for over 2.5 just to get an overview where this hits more and not. Dunno if this was the best way to present the results but I thought doing it. Maybe with a few tweaks this can hit more i guess... Between 30 and 50 we got 18 games with over 2.5 and only 11 with under 2.5. Below 10 there was only 2 games with this ranking in total of 64 and they both were over 2,5.

 

Feel free to comment

@darksidersfkHow are you doing with your Rankings?

[Kentucky110]

Hi All

Here are tomorrows ratings

The Shots on Target Ratings select the same teams and all 3 games The Home and the Away team are both in the bottom 3 Rankings Lets see what tomorrow brings (possible over 3.5)

so Far in the Over 2.5 Goals we have had 8 from 10 Selections

The Shots on Target games have ALL been over 3.5 ( Still watching this they are not selections!)

The Shots on Target games where one of the teams was in the lowest 3 rankings(highlighted) but the other was not has resulted in 3 games so far the lowest ranked team has won and games have been over 2.5 Not enough data to draw any conclusions yet and I am still watching

 

Ken

[Kentucky110]

Only 2 Leagues today Over 2.5 selections highlighted in red

Below are the same games with the Shots on Target module added I am not posting these as selections still just watching and gathering data.

Same Selection for League 1

 Possible over 3.5?

2 Selections for League 2 ( Not seen this scenario before) will need more data   before making any changes to the selection process as I only like to have 1 selection per League

The game I am interested in is Newport v Stevenage (possible Newport to win and over 2.5)

Let see what happens this week

Ken

[Kentucky110]

Well Saturday was a bit of a washout 2 Losers ( Exeter had a goal disallowed in 2nd Half)

But Newport Came up trumps ( Not a selection just watching and gathering data)

Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at historical Data and back testing some theory's I have now built into the module Over 2.5 which I will keep posting as selections Plus Home win over 2.5 goals and Away win plus over 2.5 goals I have also added Under 2.5 goals. The other selections are for watching only!. Included in the table will be 2 extra columns Average Shots Against  Home and Away (data not currently used)

Lets see what weekend brings as we are now including Premiership games now they have played 4 home and away

(Excluding Tottenham and Watford Games only 3)

[Kentucky110]

The format of the displayed games is a little different now (see below)

Selections are ONLY the Over games ( Over 2.5 goals) as this is how the thread started and will continue

as you can see I have added A-2.5 ( Away win and over 2.5 goals in the game) H-2.5 (Home win and over 2.5 goals in the game)

Under has also been included ( under 2.5 goals) These are NOT being posted as selections still testing the data

Av. Shots Agst should be self explanatory and is not being used (Yet)

I will try and explain the highlighted Bets

 

All the games have been Rated using the Shots on Target module. Looking at the first Over Game Chelsea v Man Utd Over is highlighted in Blue This indicates that the average for BTTS  to date is greater than the league average and that the average for games played to date over 2.5 is greater than the league average. so the Chelsea game and the Bury game both meet the criteria. The other 2 over games don't meet the criteria Eg Luton home games over 2.5 is 50% and Walsall is 50% giving an average of 50% and the League average is 53%

The observant amongst you may ask why has the module picked Luton v Walsall neither team is ranked Low 3 nor is it the Lowest Master (lowest Ranking highlighted in magenta) The screen shots are using the shots on target module whereas the Over selections do not. The module selects the Over bets first then adds the Shots on target data Below is screen shot league one NOT using shots on Target

As you can see Ratings and Master are are different

Under picks ( NOT selections) are calculated in the same way eg Stevenage over 2.5 33% (which means under games are 67%) Crewe over 2.5 33% average for both teams Under 2.5 is 67% League average is 55% for BTTS Stevenage games is 33% Crewe is 17% League average 51% Both teams under the League average ( I Hope you are following this  and you have not fallen asleep)

H-2.5 and A-2.5 are using the shots module and the reason Peterborough is highlighted is because it meets the same criteria for goals as described in the Over selections.

So this week we have 4 Over SELECTIONS ( I will be reporting back on all the selections i have posted once we have reached 25 bets Profit or Loss to level stakes using available betfair odds)

Under selections just watching and recording (are highlighted ones better than the others?)

H-2.5 and A-2.5 again just watching and recording ( been very good so far  or is that a kiss of death)

Lets see what this week brings

Remember tonight's game once recorded may change Championship selections and early kickoff Saturday may change Premiership selections if they do I will re post

[Catania]

A very interesting thread. Thank you for posting.

As the selection criteria has changed, does this mean the spreadsheets

posted previously are no longer valid?

[Kentucky110]

@Catania No the spreadsheets are still valid Selections for Over 2.5 goals has not changed

All I have included now is the shots on target module which will select H-2.5 A-2.5 and Under these are not being posted as selections and are only being recorded and watched If they are successful then they will be included I will then load new sheets if anyone want them

 

Regards

Ken

[Catania]

Thank you.

Last week, League One, I had identical numbers to you. I have

updated the results and this week the numbers are totally different.

I have checked, but cannot find an error. Very strange.

[mteam]

I also have different this week for example I have

chelsea 6 man u 8 total 14

Bournemouth 4 Southampton 26 total 30

[Kentucky110]

After adding results in Championship another bet

Derby v Sheff Utd Over

 

@mteam

@Catania Will respond shortly

 

[Kentucky110]

Hi Catania and mteam

The 4 Leagues displayed above are using the Shots on Target module But the over selections are calculated before this kicks in

You should have the same over selection as I have as  tried to explain in my post

If you look at the Showing only 2.5 selections image then you should have the same ratings

Hope that explains things

 

[Catania]

OK. Thank you. Got it.

[Kentucky110]

Hi All

To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.

Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)

So 3 selections Lets see how they perform

Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)

Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5

Will keep you updated.

Ken

 

 

[Kentucky110]

Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording

the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)

If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.

No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend

[jazzman45]

Thanks Ken for the great effort.

I am interested in the new spreadsheets, of course.

Just some comments about the methodology, I know that for any selections to be made, the Home and Away team must have played at least 4 Home games and 4 Away games respectively. Here's the idea:

if a team has performed so well and scored so many goals at the beginning of the seasons, that team should easily outrank other team in the rating list, but if, for some reasons (e.g. due to tight schedule or many injuries on the team etc.), the team under-performs for some weeks, your method might NOT be able to detect this. Besides, given the fact that that team might score a lot in earlier games of the season, the cumulative goals would make it easily outrank other teams, which leads to the possibility that the games played by this kind of team will almost always get a selection. But this might not be the best selection as that team might have under-performed for a few weeks (likewise, teams that didn't score many in the earlier of the seasons might have some weeks that over-performed and scored many goals), put it simply, the spreadsheet cannot take these scenarios into considerations.

So is that possible to just rank the teams by the last 4 Home games' and 4 Away games' record? If we can just consider the last 4 games that being played, might be the spreadsheets can then take the above factors into considerations and make better, or even more accurate selections.

Just some thoughts that came up in my mind, been tracking this thread for some time, hope it helps.

Again, appreciate your great work, Ken!

   

[Sir Puntalot]

 to PL @jazzman45   

[Kentucky110]

@jazzman45Hi There I see what you are saying and after I have compiled the sheet to take into account the under games I will have a look at seeing how much work is involved in creating a sheet that looks at the last 4 games it should be possible . I think you will find the Over/Under info quite interesting. as it looks at percentages for Home and Away games > 2.5 Home and Away games BTTS  Home and Away wins > 2.5. ( it does not use the ranking method to make selections)and I have spotted some trends that will need investigating

Just a thought have you considered just entering the last 4 home games and last 4 away games in the fixtures and results tab.

League table would be wrong but the goals ranking would be correct for you. I would make a copy of your sheet before changing anything but you could test your theory.I would be interested in your findings.

I am going to stick with the current selection method until the end of the season as I am fairly confident that it works.

Hopefully I will have the over under sheet ready for Friday and will post the link when done.

Thank you for your kind words and ideas

[Kentucky110]

@jazzman45 Hi There I have created a new sheet named Over Under this includes rankings for last 4 as requested

Follow link below

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18NpRwioKuyk8hkrI_envmVHbS-DA2D9yYOsZObZRvjI/edit?usp=sharing

I think you will have to download it as it appears that google sheets does not support the Aggregate function which I have had to use to get the last 4 Games data

Please down load it and let me know if its working to your satisfaction

To Rank Last 4 Games Enter "Y" into G2 on the rankings page I have included data for all current championship games plus the games to be played this weekend

Let me know if all is OK otherwise I will have to think of another way to get the last 4 games

 

Ken

[Kentucky110]

Hi All I have figured it out

Download the sheet as excel file open it go to Last 4 games tab Click into cell R5 in the formula bar you will see that Google sheets has converted the formula to an array. ie Curly Brackets around the formula {....}

Click the end of the formula and the curly brackets disappear Tab into the next cell S5 and repeat do this until the end of the row AJ5 and the row should now have numbers in copy R5 to AJ5 down to ROW 28 and that should fix the problem. Click save

if you now go to G2 on the Rankings tab enter "Y" press enter it should now work

any problems let me know

@jazzman45Hope this is what you were looking for

Ken

[jazzman45]

21 minutes ago, Kentucky110 said:

Hi All I have figured it out

Download the sheet as excel file open it go to Last 4 games tab Click into cell R5 in the formula bar you will see that Google sheets has converted the formula to an array. ie Curly Brackets around the formula {....}

Click the end of the formula and the curly brackets disappear Tab into the next cell S5 and repeat do this until the end of the row AJ5 and the row should now have numbers in copy R5 to AJ5 down to ROW 28 and that should fix the problem. Click save

if you now go to G2 on the Rankings tab enter "Y" press enter it should now work

any problems let me know

@jazzman45Hope this is what you were looking for

Ken

Thanks Ken, would definitely try it out to see what we can get. Will keep you updated!