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Kentucky110

Over 2.5 Goals a Different Method

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Hello All

below is the method I use for selecting Over 2.5 goals

Most punters look at average goals per game and if the game average is over 2.5  for both home and away teams then it ma be considered as a selection

My approach is similar but I rank the teams (see below snip from Excel)

the below table (League 1) shows Avg.H Goals This is the average for goals scored in game for Home Team Home matches only

so for example (Home games only) Portsmouth Goals for 9 Goals against 2 total =11 divide by number of home games played 4 gives 2.75 The ranking for Portsmouth (Rank G.H) is 9

Portsmouth Goals for home (Avg.GFH) is 2.25 with a ranking of 1 

I add the 2 ranking figures together Portsmouth = 10

I do the same for the away Team so for Wycombe Rank Goals Away (Rank G.A)=3 Rank Goals for Away (Rank GFA)=12 add them together giving a total of 15 for Wycombe

I then add the I then add the home ranking to the away ranking Total 25 for this game

The same is done for All Games in League ( see Lower snip from Excel)

image.png.f04b27eaf8d395a445e1d23fb541a246.png

image.png.4fc5cab4d2c7b42da5a6866e8750ece4.png

How do I select from this? ( These games are for League 1 Sat 22nd)

I only bet if the home team has played 4 or more games at home and the away team has played 4 or more games away

I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)

I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals

My selection for Sat League 1 is Gillingham v Peterbrough over 2.5 goals

I do this for 4 leagues normally Premiership,Championship,League 1 and league 2

and My bet is 4 trebles and a 4 timer

Its quite simple to set up in Excel if you want to try

 

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interesting. as Zemside said, you got results? :))

 

oh and what do you mean by treble bets - i thought you come up with one selection for one bet per game day? ah I think I see - so you do that for four leages and put on a treble and also 4 singles. i guess lower stake for the treble?

Edited by liero1

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9 hours ago, Zemside said:

Kentuckey110---Good to have as a guide,sure one can find some value bets too.Did you play this last season and how did it go?

 

 @Zemside

I only played about with this method at the back end of Last season and only did single bets.I did notice that a number of times

all 4 were over 2.5 and and quite a few Times I had would have had trebles up giving a small profit.

Overall I did make a small profit but this season I will be giving it a go

Rules are Home Teams MUST have played 4 home games Away teams MUST have Played away games

if there is a selection in each league then the bet will be 4 trebles and one 4 timer (Hills do a bet boost on trebles and above)

if only 3 selections then 3 doubles and a Treble

if only 2 selections then 1 double  

Staking is 5 pts

so 4 Selections = 4 trebles and a 4 timer 1pt on each

3 selections = 3 doubles and a treble 1.5 pts on the doubles and 0.5pt on the treble

2 selections only then 2 x 2.5pts win singles

I will if anyone is interested post the selections. But it is quite simple to set up in Excel

Regards

Kentucky

 

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2 hours ago, note3user said:

Hi Kentuckey110 looks like a little good system

2 questions where you get the data from also do you have excel sheet to share please

@note3user

Hi There

The Home Away tables are generated by excel But you do have to record all results yourself

a simple way would be to copy and paste the home and away tables from one of the many sites on line and then

do lookups for Goals and rankings.

if you need any help with formulas then I would be only to happy to help

I will Saturday Morning post the selection for the weekend as Championship, League 1 and League 2 have played the qualifying number of Games

I will post in the below format (Highlighted in Yellow would be the selection)

image.png.4fc5cab4d2c7b42da5a6866e8750ece4.png

Regards

Kentucky

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I read Everything but i think i didnt understand How u do the math and why the lower are better. I think im missing something important.

Do you have another way to explain this? 

 

If you can send me pm with more instructions and formulas to build a table like that.

 

Thanks 

Edited by darksidersfk

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As promised below are the 3 qualifying leagues for this week with selection Highlighted yellow Wigan play tonight

The lower the Rating = the higher number of goals scored

EXAMPLE

If you look at Reading Home Games

Goals for = 3 Goals Against = 7 Total 10 divide by games played 4 Gives an Average of 2.5 goals per home games played

some may consider the game for over 2.5 goals because Readings average is 2.5

But their average for goals scored a home 3 is only 0.75

Lets look at Hull away

Goals for = 5 Goals Against =7 Total 12 Divide by games played 4 gives average 3.00 goals per away game

Both teams Have good GAME averages

But the average for goals scored away is only 1.25

Does that explain it a little better?

The game with the LOWEST rating historically should in theory produce the most goals

image.png.89e1ac7a10476d61c7e68781bb9a7980.pngimage.png.24eb204de1ff445bbdb9a586086a1d29.pngimage.png.db52972492dc883392d9dfefd8aff646.png

I have just compiled a simple Excel sheet but I am unable to attach it (unless someone can tell me how)

@note3user@darksidersfkIf you can somehow send me your email Privately do not post on here I will send it to you it should give a starting point for you to create your own Tables

if you google Excel League Tables there are a number of good ones available for free

Lets see what what happens this week

Kentucky

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4 minutes ago, svc1796 said:

Hi. Why do you have GAH (Goals against home) column if you don't use it? 

There are a number of columns on that part of the sheet that are not used e.g perf ratings and league positions but the ranking for

But these are used in other parts of my Calculations for various bets

Goals against is used as explained in an earlier post

I am only trying to explain one of my methods ( Over 2.5 Goals) and this is the first complete season I will be giving it a go

I will be recording the HIGHEST rating for this season to see if it may Indicate Under 2.5 goals

but will have to wait a full season to see what the data produces

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1 hour ago, darksidersfk said:

I don't have anything for you to send the email, how can I send u my email? 

Can't u upload the file to google sheets or something ?

OK I think I have done it The sheet is called RANKING

let me know if you can get it 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RJQuXTn-X52U6niSwqrL_wpFDSHw-O9YCkf2Wfoa9A/edit#gid=1656779749

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6 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

There are a number of columns on that part of the sheet that are not used e.g perf ratings and league positions but the ranking for

But these are used in other parts of my Calculations for various bets

Goals against is used as explained in an earlier post

I am only trying to explain one of my methods ( Over 2.5 Goals) and this is the first complete season I will be giving it a go

I will be recording the HIGHEST rating for this season to see if it may Indicate Under 2.5 goals

but will have to wait a full season to see what the data produces

Got it now. One more question, when exactly you decide to bet? Good attacking team vs Bad defending team is obvious, but when you have two good attacking teams with good defence, two bad defending teams with low goals scored? Explain this please

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28 minutes ago, svc1796 said:

Got it now. One more question, when exactly you decide to bet? Good attacking team vs Bad defending team is obvious, but when you have two good attacking teams with good defence, two bad defending teams with low goals scored? Explain this please

@svc1796 I bet purely on the numbers providing they meet the criteria explained in earlier posts

My selection method picks 1 game per league

Tonight's game Wigan v Bristol City appears to be both good attacking teams based on the number of goals scored by each team but they have both conceded less than they scored does that make them both good defensive teams? I think you can over complicate things by delving too deep.

But saying that I will be saving all games in a database for future analysis and until I have at least 1 seasons data I am unable to make a comment. We can only wait and see how thing develop

I might add that I get as much pleasure out of developing the Ideas as I do from backing the selections and I am not doing this to get rich quick only to win more than I put on

 

 

 

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For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet

if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table

Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds

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23 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet

if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table

Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds

I have now added a League Table Spreadsheet to Google sheets

You need to enter results manually (Team name must be exactly the same as setup)

You should be able to create your own leagues from the sheet

If you have any questions then please feel free to ask

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cNBQnCAnacJ9gTGHzkgHMbO3uDi4Q_TzLIl1pF1Z0eI/edit?usp=sharing

 

Note the original sheet was from Excel Templates all free to download and a great source of Information for creating formulas

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On 9/23/2018 at 8:02 AM, Kentucky110 said:

I have now added a League Table Spreadsheet to Google sheets

You need to enter results manually (Team name must be exactly the same as setup)

You should be able to create your own leagues from the sheet

If you have any questions then please feel free to ask

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cNBQnCAnacJ9gTGHzkgHMbO3uDi4Q_TzLIl1pF1Z0eI/edit?usp=sharing

 

Note the original sheet was from Excel Templates all free to download and a great source of Information for creating formulas

This is actually a very nice and well made mate. Thanks  a lot

One question about this sheet... In this excel sheet there is no ranking system like in the other RANKING sheet. I thought this were merged but I think not. So I will have to do those calculations from the RANKING sheet correct?
If that is the case for me I think it will be easier just to paste copy on that excel (RANKING) a new league since everything is automatically.

Correct me if I'm wrong

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22 minutes ago, darksidersfk said:

This is actually a very nice and well made mate. Thanks  a lot

One question about this sheet... In this excel sheet there is no ranking system like in the other RANKING sheet. I thought this were merged but I think not. So I will have to do those calculations from the RANKING sheet correct?
If that is the case for me I think it will be easier just to paste copy on that excel (RANKING) a new league since everything is automatically.

Correct me if I'm wrong

@darksidersfk

Should be fairly easy to  add the Rankings and add the other 3 leagues. (Or any league that you may want to)

May be easier to have separate sheets for each league

much better to have Live data as you can see from last weeks Friday game once Wigans result was entered it then gave another bet in the league ( which won)

Giving a total of 3 wins from the 4 selections

If you are struggling with setting the league sheet up then let me know . Then if I get chance later in the week I will try and sort something out.

Regards

Ken

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2 hours ago, Kentucky110 said:

@darksidersfk

Should be fairly easy to  add the Rankings and add the other 3 leagues. (Or any league that you may want to)

May be easier to have separate sheets for each league

much better to have Live data as you can see from last weeks Friday game once Wigans result was entered it then gave another bet in the league ( which won)

Giving a total of 3 wins from the 4 selections

If you are struggling with setting the league sheet up then let me know . Then if I get chance later in the week I will try and sort something out.

Regards

Ken

For me the only problem is after the the  league table is all good I can't make the calculations, cause in the Ranking sheet u use a lot of formulas and Vlookup, I don't want to mess around with that. The thing is after I do everything in the League table excel I can copy that table to the Ranking excel ? This is possible without any trouble or errors ? But its easy just use the Ranking excel and create multiple ones for different leagues... I think its the best way

BTW where did u get the games data ? I always get my information from footballdata, just need to change the name of some teams to match each other, I think its easy and faster.

Edited by darksidersfk

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  • Punters Lounge Forum Tips

    • Monaco GP So Hamilton pulls a rabbit out of the hat and grabs pole for yet another Mercedes front row lockout. Lewis is an unbackable 1/3 shot to lead all of the way and this 78 lap traffic jam. I feel for Bottas as he was going quickest for most of the session and now finds himself stuck behind the best driver at Monaco in the race. He's a 4/1 shot to get past Hamilton so basically your betting 4/1 for Hamilton to retire?? Max Verstappen is now a 6/1 shot but is as short as 4/11 to finish on the podium so maybe the value has swung towards Vettel in this market who is a tempting 6/5 shot. H surely cant have another bad day like today, can he?? I'm struggling to see how Pierre Gasly is 4/7 to finish in the top 6 when Riccardo is 11/8, Gasly has a 3 place grid penalty to starts 8th while the Aussie starts 6th?? Leclerc who starts 16th is 13/8, that will be worth seeing if he finishes 6th!!! Lance Stroll struggles here and his car is pretty slow so backing him at 2/1 not to finish is worth a small bet to keep me interested in what could be a dull race. Bets Verstappen 7/2 Under 15.5 5/6 Vettel Top 3 6/5 Ricciardo Top 6 11/8 Stroll DNF 2/1  
    • Well done Steve, your first win in the Cup since May 2017 Unlucky Ken mate.      
    • Albert Ramos to beat Laslo Djere at 2.15 with betsson It's all about probability in this one and I rate the probability of this happening higher than the current odds of 2.15. Albert has been in the quarterfinal of Roland Garros before and knows how to play in grand slam events while Laslo is 1-6 in GS maindraw matches. I expect Laslo to run into some major difficulties against Albert. They met once before and Albert won 2-1 back in 2017 in Marrakech. Peter Gojowczyk to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 4.50 with Unibet Peter has beaten J-W before and most importantly on indoor hard and even in a 5 set Davis cup thriller by 8-6 in the decider. I think Peter could have enough to win this again even though his form isn't the best but neither is J-Ws form and I think clay suits Peter a little bit better and he's got the matchup advantage and knows how to find break opportunities in the J-W serve. Better chances of an upset than the odds suggest at least. Sveta Kuznetsova to beat (-1.5 sets) Kristina Kucova at 2.04 with Unibet Sveta could not have asked for a more favorable first round opponent. Kristina hates clay and she's never won a set in Roland Garros maindraw and her last two visits have been first round straight sets losses to Shuai Zhang 6-0 7-5 and Sam Stosur 7-5 6-0. She's done well to reach the maindraw from qualification but her opponents weren't really hard at all but she still had problems in last match against Katie Swan but won in a decider. Sveta should have many opportunities to break and could win in straight sets. Kateryna Kozlova to beat Bernarda Pera at 2.35 with Unibet Kateryna most famously knocked out reigning champion Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets last season in Roland Garros first round and later lost in second round. Bernarda Pera also won her first round match in Roland Garros last season and she beat Elena Vesnina but I don't rate that performance at all and she later also lost in second round. Anyway I don't see what makes Kateryna the underdog in this one. Kateryna has a higher ranking now (66), close to her career high 62 and I rate beating Jelena Ostapenko in straight sets higher than Bernarda beating a Elena Vesnina with retirement in her sights. Should be more  even odds here I think.  Roger Federer to beat (-6.5) Lorenzo Sonego at 1.97 with betsson I think I have to rate Rogers chances pretty high here. I don't think Lorenzo will get many looks into Rogers serve but Roger should find ways to find breakpoint opportunities on the Lorenzo serve. It might take some time but once Roger gets a break it could be a rout. This could even be covered in 4 sets.
    • I agree about Millman. He must have a chance to at least take a set as Sascha is all over the place right now. He's just won Geneva but it was such a struggle - apart from his first round every match was three sets and he only got the better of Jarry in a final set tie-break which it looked as though he did his best to throw away after building a big lead. It would be so ironic if this is to be the tournament where Sascha makes his grand slam breakthrough when his form is just not there after the last few years where he's been playing well but couldn't translate that into deep runs in the slams. I certainly wont be backing him and it'd be a brave person that did based on his season so far.
    • 2.10 Font - Demon Fou - win at 7/4 bog bet365
    • Few personal opinions apart from the picks above. I agree Millman is capable of an upset of Zverev.I'll be taking a side one on this one. I was looking forward to take on Cameron Norrie before Kyrgios pulled out.No one believes he's really ill n he hates clay season with a passion. Weren't he to take on a serious player in the 2nd round I'd have considered him to go on a bit further. Mikael Ymer will be decent n I expect him to win his first match art RG.I'd stay away from Jarry Vs DelPo.Most unpredicted 1st round match. Kohlschreiber is a formidable opponent especially this year but I think there's value in taking R Haase against him based on motivation.Also Lloyd Harris prefers hard courts to clay I don't see why he's the favourite to beat Rosol who despite being poor in form on a good day is decent on Clay.Thoughts @South_African_Punter
    • 3.15 fontwell risk and roll my win bet @ 1.73                  6.00 curragh hazraw my win bet @ 2.50                  4.25 curragh iridessa @12/1 my e/w bet                   5.00 curragh trading point @12/1 my e/w bet
    • Valentino Dancer 2.00 Kelso 15/8 - William Hill
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