Kentucky110 Posted September 19, 2018 Share Posted September 19, 2018 Hello All below is the method I use for selecting Over 2.5 goals Most punters look at average goals per game and if the game average is over 2.5 for both home and away teams then it ma be considered as a selection My approach is similar but I rank the teams (see below snip from Excel) the below table (League 1) shows Avg.H Goals This is the average for goals scored in game for Home Team Home matches only so for example (Home games only) Portsmouth Goals for 9 Goals against 2 total =11 divide by number of home games played 4 gives 2.75 The ranking for Portsmouth (Rank G.H) is 9 Portsmouth Goals for home (Avg.GFH) is 2.25 with a ranking of 1 I add the 2 ranking figures together Portsmouth = 10 I do the same for the away Team so for Wycombe Rank Goals Away (Rank G.A)=3 Rank Goals for Away (Rank GFA)=12 add them together giving a total of 15 for Wycombe I then add the I then add the home ranking to the away ranking Total 25 for this game The same is done for All Games in League ( see Lower snip from Excel) How do I select from this? ( These games are for League 1 Sat 22nd) I only bet if the home team has played 4 or more games at home and the away team has played 4 or more games away I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red) I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals My selection for Sat League 1 is Gillingham v Peterbrough over 2.5 goals I do this for 4 leagues normally Premiership,Championship,League 1 and league 2 and My bet is 4 trebles and a 4 timer Its quite simple to set up in Excel if you want to try MkayaGG 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zemside Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 Kentuckey110---Good to have as a guide,sure one can find some value bets too.Did you play this last season and how did it go? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 (edited) interesting. as Zemside said, you got results? :)) oh and what do you mean by treble bets - i thought you come up with one selection for one bet per game day? ah I think I see - so you do that for four leages and put on a treble and also 4 singles. i guess lower stake for the treble? Edited September 20, 2018 by liero1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted September 20, 2018 Share Posted September 20, 2018 Hi Kentuckey110 looks like a little good system 2 questions where you get the data from also do you have excel sheet to share please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 20, 2018 Author Share Posted September 20, 2018 9 hours ago, Zemside said: Kentuckey110---Good to have as a guide,sure one can find some value bets too.Did you play this last season and how did it go? @Zemside I only played about with this method at the back end of Last season and only did single bets.I did notice that a number of times all 4 were over 2.5 and and quite a few Times I had would have had trebles up giving a small profit. Overall I did make a small profit but this season I will be giving it a go Rules are Home Teams MUST have played 4 home games Away teams MUST have Played away games if there is a selection in each league then the bet will be 4 trebles and one 4 timer (Hills do a bet boost on trebles and above) if only 3 selections then 3 doubles and a Treble if only 2 selections then 1 double Staking is 5 pts so 4 Selections = 4 trebles and a 4 timer 1pt on each 3 selections = 3 doubles and a treble 1.5 pts on the doubles and 0.5pt on the treble 2 selections only then 2 x 2.5pts win singles I will if anyone is interested post the selections. But it is quite simple to set up in Excel Regards Kentucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 20, 2018 Author Share Posted September 20, 2018 2 hours ago, note3user said: Hi Kentuckey110 looks like a little good system 2 questions where you get the data from also do you have excel sheet to share please @note3user Hi There The Home Away tables are generated by excel But you do have to record all results yourself a simple way would be to copy and paste the home and away tables from one of the many sites on line and then do lookups for Goals and rankings. if you need any help with formulas then I would be only to happy to help I will Saturday Morning post the selection for the weekend as Championship, League 1 and League 2 have played the qualifying number of Games I will post in the below format (Highlighted in Yellow would be the selection) Regards Kentucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 (edited) I read Everything but i think i didnt understand How u do the math and why the lower are better. I think im missing something important. Do you have another way to explain this? If you can send me pm with more instructions and formulas to build a table like that. Thanks Edited September 21, 2018 by darksidersfk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 same here please If you can send me pm with more instructions and formulas to build a table like that Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liero1 Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 just look at his table. the more goal scores the lower the rank. so you want a low rank in the selection as he has described. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 As promised below are the 3 qualifying leagues for this week with selection Highlighted yellow Wigan play tonight The lower the Rating = the higher number of goals scored EXAMPLE If you look at Reading Home Games Goals for = 3 Goals Against = 7 Total 10 divide by games played 4 Gives an Average of 2.5 goals per home games played some may consider the game for over 2.5 goals because Readings average is 2.5 But their average for goals scored a home 3 is only 0.75 Lets look at Hull away Goals for = 5 Goals Against =7 Total 12 Divide by games played 4 gives average 3.00 goals per away game Both teams Have good GAME averages But the average for goals scored away is only 1.25 Does that explain it a little better? The game with the LOWEST rating historically should in theory produce the most goals I have just compiled a simple Excel sheet but I am unable to attach it (unless someone can tell me how) @note3user@darksidersfkIf you can somehow send me your email Privately do not post on here I will send it to you it should give a starting point for you to create your own Tables if you google Excel League Tables there are a number of good ones available for free Lets see what what happens this week Kentucky Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbvnjdsdfgfsdg Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Hi. Why do you have GAH (Goals against home) column if you don't use it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, svc1796 said: Hi. Why do you have GAH (Goals against home) column if you don't use it? There are a number of columns on that part of the sheet that are not used e.g perf ratings and league positions but the ranking for But these are used in other parts of my Calculations for various bets Goals against is used as explained in an earlier post I am only trying to explain one of my methods ( Over 2.5 Goals) and this is the first complete season I will be giving it a go I will be recording the HIGHEST rating for this season to see if it may Indicate Under 2.5 goals but will have to wait a full season to see what the data produces Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 It wont let me message you so here is my temp email address [email protected] Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, note3user said: It wont let me message you so here is my temp email address [email protected] Thanks @note3user File sent If you have any questions then please post on here it may help other forum users Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
note3user Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 Thanks got it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 3 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: @note3user File sent If you have any questions then please post on here it may help other forum users I don't have anything for you to send the email, how can I send u my email? Can't u upload the file to google sheets or something ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 1 hour ago, darksidersfk said: I don't have anything for you to send the email, how can I send u my email? Can't u upload the file to google sheets or something ? OK I think I have done it The sheet is called RANKING let me know if you can get it https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RJQuXTn-X52U6niSwqrL_wpFDSHw-O9YCkf2Wfoa9A/edit#gid=1656779749 darksidersfk 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbvnjdsdfgfsdg Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 6 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: There are a number of columns on that part of the sheet that are not used e.g perf ratings and league positions but the ranking for But these are used in other parts of my Calculations for various bets Goals against is used as explained in an earlier post I am only trying to explain one of my methods ( Over 2.5 Goals) and this is the first complete season I will be giving it a go I will be recording the HIGHEST rating for this season to see if it may Indicate Under 2.5 goals but will have to wait a full season to see what the data produces Got it now. One more question, when exactly you decide to bet? Good attacking team vs Bad defending team is obvious, but when you have two good attacking teams with good defence, two bad defending teams with low goals scored? Explain this please Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 21, 2018 Author Share Posted September 21, 2018 28 minutes ago, svc1796 said: Got it now. One more question, when exactly you decide to bet? Good attacking team vs Bad defending team is obvious, but when you have two good attacking teams with good defence, two bad defending teams with low goals scored? Explain this please @svc1796 I bet purely on the numbers providing they meet the criteria explained in earlier posts My selection method picks 1 game per league Tonight's game Wigan v Bristol City appears to be both good attacking teams based on the number of goals scored by each team but they have both conceded less than they scored does that make them both good defensive teams? I think you can over complicate things by delving too deep. But saying that I will be saving all games in a database for future analysis and until I have at least 1 seasons data I am unable to make a comment. We can only wait and see how thing develop I might add that I get as much pleasure out of developing the Ideas as I do from backing the selections and I am not doing this to get rich quick only to win more than I put on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 21, 2018 Share Posted September 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: OK I think I have done it The sheet is called RANKING let me know if you can get it https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11RJQuXTn-X52U6niSwqrL_wpFDSHw-O9YCkf2Wfoa9A/edit#gid=1656779749 That was exactly what I ask, thanks very much, I'll take a look today and see if I understand everything now! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 22, 2018 Author Share Posted September 22, 2018 For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 23, 2018 Author Share Posted September 23, 2018 23 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: For anyone who downloaded the RANKING sheet if you change the Home and away tables Wigan Games Played now 5 and GF now 9 also change Bristol City Games Played now 5 and GA now 7 this reflects the results of last nights game and there is now a second selection in the championship based on the new table Aston Villa v Sheffield Weds I have now added a League Table Spreadsheet to Google sheets You need to enter results manually (Team name must be exactly the same as setup) You should be able to create your own leagues from the sheet If you have any questions then please feel free to ask https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cNBQnCAnacJ9gTGHzkgHMbO3uDi4Q_TzLIl1pF1Z0eI/edit?usp=sharing Note the original sheet was from Excel Templates all free to download and a great source of Information for creating formulas Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 On 9/23/2018 at 8:02 AM, Kentucky110 said: I have now added a League Table Spreadsheet to Google sheets You need to enter results manually (Team name must be exactly the same as setup) You should be able to create your own leagues from the sheet If you have any questions then please feel free to ask https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1cNBQnCAnacJ9gTGHzkgHMbO3uDi4Q_TzLIl1pF1Z0eI/edit?usp=sharing Note the original sheet was from Excel Templates all free to download and a great source of Information for creating formulas This is actually a very nice and well made mate. Thanks a lot One question about this sheet... In this excel sheet there is no ranking system like in the other RANKING sheet. I thought this were merged but I think not. So I will have to do those calculations from the RANKING sheet correct? If that is the case for me I think it will be easier just to paste copy on that excel (RANKING) a new league since everything is automatically. Correct me if I'm wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 24, 2018 Author Share Posted September 24, 2018 22 minutes ago, darksidersfk said: This is actually a very nice and well made mate. Thanks a lot One question about this sheet... In this excel sheet there is no ranking system like in the other RANKING sheet. I thought this were merged but I think not. So I will have to do those calculations from the RANKING sheet correct? If that is the case for me I think it will be easier just to paste copy on that excel (RANKING) a new league since everything is automatically. Correct me if I'm wrong @darksidersfk Should be fairly easy to add the Rankings and add the other 3 leagues. (Or any league that you may want to) May be easier to have separate sheets for each league much better to have Live data as you can see from last weeks Friday game once Wigans result was entered it then gave another bet in the league ( which won) Giving a total of 3 wins from the 4 selections If you are struggling with setting the league sheet up then let me know . Then if I get chance later in the week I will try and sort something out. Regards Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 24, 2018 Share Posted September 24, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: @darksidersfk Should be fairly easy to add the Rankings and add the other 3 leagues. (Or any league that you may want to) May be easier to have separate sheets for each league much better to have Live data as you can see from last weeks Friday game once Wigans result was entered it then gave another bet in the league ( which won) Giving a total of 3 wins from the 4 selections If you are struggling with setting the league sheet up then let me know . Then if I get chance later in the week I will try and sort something out. Regards Ken For me the only problem is after the the league table is all good I can't make the calculations, cause in the Ranking sheet u use a lot of formulas and Vlookup, I don't want to mess around with that. The thing is after I do everything in the League table excel I can copy that table to the Ranking excel ? This is possible without any trouble or errors ? But its easy just use the Ranking excel and create multiple ones for different leagues... I think its the best way BTW where did u get the games data ? I always get my information from footballdata, just need to change the name of some teams to match each other, I think its easy and faster. Edited September 24, 2018 by darksidersfk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 19 hours ago, darksidersfk said: For me the only problem is after the the league table is all good I can't make the calculations, cause in the Ranking sheet u use a lot of formulas and Vlookup, I don't want to mess around with that. The thing is after I do everything in the League table excel I can copy that table to the Ranking excel ? This is possible without any trouble or errors ? But its easy just use the Ranking excel and create multiple ones for different leagues... I think its the best way BTW where did u get the games data ? I always get my information from footballdata, just need to change the name of some teams to match each other, I think its easy and faster. @darksidersfk Hello I have added a couple of new sheets for you Premiership with Rankings I have added the next games you will need to fill results in Just check the notes on the sheet I think you will be able to follow No selections will be made for premiership this week as the teams need to have 4 or more games Home and Away https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14h2rAOp2k1v8IdUvkwgWDo941mE2WzdFv5AWISoNg58/edit#gid=1994520008 Championship with rankings you will need to add the next games in Fixtures and again in Rankings check the instructions on the ranking tab https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uivHQ_Neeu5a75UW7-NlMI5RYkaMhqexA9BQpuGQcV4/edit?usp=sharing If you have any questions then ask. I should be around for the next few hours Couple of things to consider If there are less than 75% of games played (Bad weather Ect) then I don't bet. if games are played over a few days say Sat Sun then After entering Sat results the ranking table may throw up another bet I do back these. The data you enter MUST be correct as the sheet only produces the league table if correctly if you enter the data correctly. Bit like cutting a piece of wood measure twice cut once then measure again Regards Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 25, 2018 Author Share Posted September 25, 2018 35 minutes ago, Kentucky110 said: @darksidersfk Hello I have added a couple of new sheets for you Premiership with Rankings I have added the next games you will need to fill results in Just check the notes on the sheet I think you will be able to follow No selections will be made for premiership this week as the teams need to have 4 or more games Home and Away https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14h2rAOp2k1v8IdUvkwgWDo941mE2WzdFv5AWISoNg58/edit#gid=1994520008 Championship with rankings you will need to add the next games in Fixtures and again in Rankings check the instructions on the ranking tab https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uivHQ_Neeu5a75UW7-NlMI5RYkaMhqexA9BQpuGQcV4/edit?usp=sharing If you have any questions then ask. I should be around for the next few hours Couple of things to consider If there are less than 75% of games played (Bad weather Ect) then I don't bet. if games are played over a few days say Sat Sun then After entering Sat results the ranking table may throw up another bet I do back these. The data you enter MUST be correct as the sheet only produces the league table if correctly if you enter the data correctly. Bit like cutting a piece of wood measure twice cut once then measure again Regards Ken Whoops here's me saying measure twice cut once the link for Championship had an error I Have corrected sheet Please re-download Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 25, 2018 Share Posted September 25, 2018 3 hours ago, Kentucky110 said: @darksidersfk Hello I have added a couple of new sheets for you Premiership with Rankings I have added the next games you will need to fill results in Just check the notes on the sheet I think you will be able to follow No selections will be made for premiership this week as the teams need to have 4 or more games Home and Away https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14h2rAOp2k1v8IdUvkwgWDo941mE2WzdFv5AWISoNg58/edit#gid=1994520008 Championship with rankings you will need to add the next games in Fixtures and again in Rankings check the instructions on the ranking tab https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1uivHQ_Neeu5a75UW7-NlMI5RYkaMhqexA9BQpuGQcV4/edit?usp=sharing If you have any questions then ask. I should be around for the next few hours Couple of things to consider If there are less than 75% of games played (Bad weather Ect) then I don't bet. if games are played over a few days say Sat Sun then After entering Sat results the ranking table may throw up another bet I do back these. The data you enter MUST be correct as the sheet only produces the league table if correctly if you enter the data correctly. Bit like cutting a piece of wood measure twice cut once then measure again Regards Ken Thanks a lot for this... the time you wasted just to pull this off is awesome. GL to the system, I'll follow as well ofc Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted September 26, 2018 Author Share Posted September 26, 2018 Just be aware there are 2 championship games being played Friday although the are currently not selections for Over 2.5 goals depending on the results of those 2 games.Which should be added to your sheet once results are known It could change the currently selected selection I will post the selections on Saturday morning. If you have downloaded and created your own sheets we can then see if we are selecting the same games Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksidersfk Posted September 26, 2018 Share Posted September 26, 2018 I tested this system this last 2 to 3 days between a few leagues (not only england) and this are the results. Hope you guys understand the meanings. y= yes ; n=no ; <=5 = Lessor equal than five ranking ; 5~10= Between 5 and 10 ranking and so on... All of this was hand made in excel, basically I copied the games ranks for each day and after the result i just put "y" or "n" for over 2.5 just to get an overview where this hits more and not. Dunno if this was the best way to present the results but I thought doing it. Maybe with a few tweaks this can hit more i guess... Between 30 and 50 we got 18 games with over 2.5 and only 11 with under 2.5. Below 10 there was only 2 games with this ranking in total of 64 and they both were over 2,5. Feel free to comment Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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