Kentucky110 Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 @jazzman45Hi there I have fund a mis calculation in the over under sheet for Last 4 games Unable to fix it at the moment but will try and sort it out when I get back in later it is giving incorrect Rankings for Last 4 Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzman45 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 @Kentucky110Thanks for the notice, coz I was about to use the new spreadsheet to do some backtests, guess we have to wait a bit later then. Looking forward to seeing what it will lead to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted October 26, 2018 Author Share Posted October 26, 2018 @jazzman45 this is the new link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gT8Iq0pm6aG4Dl72OMegONIfWSJHPbO2pcm5KqXTfl8/edit?usp=sharing I had to put some helper columns in as when the sheet was picking the last 4 games it was picking the next game entered on the fixtures and results tab as the last game giving it a 0-0 result. When you download you will have to remove the curly brackets {.....}again as described above sorry for any inconvenience caused Last 4 games should give you below for Championship Let me know if you need any help Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzman45 Posted October 26, 2018 Share Posted October 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Kentucky110 said: @jazzman45 this is the new link https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gT8Iq0pm6aG4Dl72OMegONIfWSJHPbO2pcm5KqXTfl8/edit?usp=sharing I had to put some helper columns in as when the sheet was picking the last 4 games it was picking the next game entered on the fixtures and results tab as the last game giving it a 0-0 result. When you download you will have to remove the curly brackets {.....}again as described above sorry for any inconvenience caused Last 4 games should give you below for Championship Let me know if you need any help Ken thanks again! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted October 27, 2018 Author Share Posted October 27, 2018 (edited) Today's over 2.5 Selections Ratings include last nights result If you have used the new over under link you should have the same Ratings as below these are not selections just testing Possible away win Reading and over 2.5? Ken Edited October 27, 2018 by Kentucky110 incorrect info loaded shots on target ratings thecurlyone1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted October 29, 2018 Author Share Posted October 29, 2018 Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts. I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up Ken thecurlyone1 and jazzman45 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted October 30, 2018 Author Share Posted October 30, 2018 @jazzman45Have you managed to do any Back testing when just using Last 4 games? Would be interested if you have come up with anything Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jazzman45 Posted October 31, 2018 Share Posted October 31, 2018 (edited) @Kentucky110 I am busy these days so I still haven't found some time to input a whole season's data and backtest it. However, I would like to share with you some results from last week's fixture: I would say that the "Last 4 Games" model is intriguing and off to a great start. Especially some games from the Last 4 Games model had better odds. I have started to track various leagues from around the world to test the strength of the system (even some low scoring league like Russian Premier League). But of course, it's only the first week to put this model to test, I would say that we have to wait a few more weeks to see how it goes (or if I am able to back test some seasons using the "Last 4 Games" model). I didn't post the Under 2.5 selections (both original model or the Last 4 Games model) because the results mostly are disappointing. Of course things should turn around a few weeks later. But I would say that the system is more reliable to pick Over 2.5 than Under 2.5 goals. I still have no ideas where to look into when we have to study Under 2.5 goals, the problem is many low scoring teams play more conservative when facing a stronger opponents, but when two low scoring teams (in other words, teams that are on the same tier or level) face each other, they might be more open to attack (as this is the chance they can beat an opponent to get 3 points to climb up the league table). I have to look into the stats pool to see if I can identify some factors that can be good indicators of good DEFENSE of a team (because the system only consider goals, I think that maybe goals are only good indicators of good OFFENSE, but not defense). Not scoring goals of course can lead to Under 2.5 games more often, but strong defense should be our main focus. However, as I have just mentioned, I still haven't got any ideas how it could be done. Let's see how everything goes! Thanks for your time, Ken Edited October 31, 2018 by jazzman45 minor typos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 1, 2018 Author Share Posted November 1, 2018 @jazzman45If you want anything adding to the sheet then let me know league positions may be an indicator Thanks for the update Ken Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 3, 2018 Author Share Posted November 3, 2018 Hi All Today's Over 2.5 selections below ( Championship you should have entered Last nights result if using your own sheet) Note Home Away columns showing league position Home/Away games (not used in calculations) Remember to Update results after early Kick off's it may generate another selection. If it does then I will post I am off for a break next week if I get chance I will post selections but they may be late Under 2.5 below these are not selections just for info Ken jazzman45 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 9, 2018 Author Share Posted November 9, 2018 (edited) Hi All just the one this week and it looks like an obvious one Missed the Championship Edited November 10, 2018 by Kentucky110 Add the image Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 Hi All only the 2 Selections this week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 Hi All below are today's over 2.5 selections. if there are any changes after early results I will re post with new selection(s) So far no Premier league selection for today Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 (edited) Kentucky110 Hello from where can download the last file of yours? Edited November 24, 2018 by scream2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 24, 2018 Author Share Posted November 24, 2018 @scream2012 if you check out the post on On 26/10/2018 at 5:29 PM there is a link there it will need updating with results if you read through the posts there are some explanations on how it is calculating the bets. There are some instructions on the sheet and you should be able to modify it for any league.if you need any help then let me know one bet in the Premiership tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 24, 2018 Share Posted November 24, 2018 I try on Championship but i have other rating team Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 @scream2012 Hi there have you added all the results? The Over Under sheet that you are was modified as some users wanted to rate last 4 games only and they wanted to see the under selections From your screen shot it looks like you have Rank Last 4 games selected ( this should be Blank) Have you added the result of the Ipswich West Brom Game played on Friday This would changes ratings as screen shot for selections Saturday was taken on Saturday This is the screen shot I have with last 4 games blank and Fridays result entered If you don't want to see Under selections then you can Modify your sheet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 The image is from fridays and i put all result from flashscore.... if I leave empty at Rank Last 4 Games i have How would it be more appropriate to look for over 2.5 matches? with Rank Last 4 Games or without? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 @scream2012Hi there you are still not getting the same as me Can you show a screen shot with Ipswich game in and Aston Villa game in Make sure the Ipswich (Friday)and the Rotherham(12:00 KO Saturday) results are entered(1-2 and 2-2) in Fixtures and Results and you should have below If you don't want to see Under 2.5 then change the formula in CELL L5 to =IF(OR(G5="",D5=""),"",IF(AND(J5="X",I5=MIN(I$5:I$16)),"Over 2.5","")) and copy down to CELL L16 Let me know how you get on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 Kentucky110 i try the file from 26/10/2018 at 5:29 PM the Championship is ok now ... and i make Romania League with Y Last 4 Games ... and without is not work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 without 4 Last 4 Games is not work Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 Upload the Romania Liga 1 sheet to google sheets and I will have a look whats wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_s7kFRQfYZv0AkWVgPJzDSiU-C9-tu2bJOGFi9e64kI/edit#gid=1292780068 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 how can I upgrade to another championship, without having to put match by match ... something simpler and faster Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 I still need access to your Google link so I can have a look what is wrong You should have received an email requesting access if your league is included in Football-Data.co.uk you could copy any paste past results from there there are probably other sites that can be used Other wise its a case of manual entry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 OK I have had a Look I dont get the #NUM error So there are only 14 teams in the league Keep each round of Games in the Rankings sheet so games from 23/11 to 26/11 (7 matches should stay in sheet) enter results after each game as selection may change You should be OK to delete L18 : V27 to tidy up your sheet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 (edited) I have betting from Last 4 Games Viitorul Over 2.5 Edited November 25, 2018 by scream2012 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 but if i put 7 matches i have other game for Over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kentucky110 Posted November 25, 2018 Author Share Posted November 25, 2018 The Basis of the program is to look at the league in rounds All games need to be rated but you add but you add results as they happen as this can change the selection Sometimes not all games in the round can be entered because they have been postponed (Champions league,Europa bad weather ect) Do not enter these games If you look at my Postings then for example Premiership this week all games played in round have been rated The round = games played 24th 25th and 26th results are entered as they are known this sometimes changes the selection or gives a second selection in the League (examples of which have been posted) using the last 4 will often give a different ranking (uses a different formula) than the ranking that is uses ALL games see example from my program below The sheet I posted replicates only the Over/Under selections and the last 4 Games program below has calculated Tuesdays Championship selection and if you enter ALL games you should get the same different selection for last 4 games over ( this was added for Jazzman45) Hope that explains this a little more clearly What does concern me is that your screen shot is missing Rankings for Din Bucuresti and CFR Cluj are the formulas still in the sheet have both teams played more than 4 home games or 4 away games if you spend a little time reading through the posts you may understand the concept a little better jazzman45 and scream2012 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scream2012 Posted November 25, 2018 Share Posted November 25, 2018 I put result from Soccer24 ... but something is not good ... I do not have the same data as in pictures. where to be the problem? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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