HenryTD Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 It seems that a huge amount of past data is available concerning horse races. The the trainers, the jockeys the going - all that kind of stuff in amazing detail (e.g. using proform). This is great for building and testing horse race prediction systems, but when it comes to historical odds, there is a dearth of information, especially with regard regular (non-exchange) bookmakers. It seems that the industry SP is all you can get. Does anyone know of a source of historic bookmaker prices at any times earlier than the race start time? I'd love to back-test what would happen if I placed my bets early in the morning. I did actually find one source but there was no information about rule4 reductions so the information was as good as useless. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 Welcome to the PL @HenryTD You have to ask yourself who would have such information - the bookmakers themselves So why would they arm the punter with more ammo? We keep a track on our tips prices, taking 3 checkpoints. When we back them (6pm), in the morning (9am) and SP All I can say is that its slightly in favour of taking a price as early as possible, depending on how good you are at picking winners of course! Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted July 11, 2018 Share Posted July 11, 2018 @HenryTD - It's something without doubt we'd be working towards right here at Punters Lounge. Lots to do before that, but definitely everything is "doable". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryTD Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 I had a look at some proofing websites to see what they do about rule-4 deductions and saw that on BetFan.com they use the approximation of assuming that the odds at the time of withdrawal are equal to the odds in the betting forecast. This seems quite reasonable. Though now I have a the obvious followup question: Are historical betting forecast odds available anywhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escaping Captivity Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 58 minutes ago, HenryTD said: I had a look at some proofing websites to see what they do about rule-4 deductions and saw that on BetFan.com they use the approximation of assuming that the odds at the time of withdrawal are equal to the odds in the betting forecast. This seems quite reasonable. Though now I have a the obvious followup question: Are historical betting forecast odds available anywhere? Sporting Life has forecast odds dating back to 2005. Click the link below then select "Full Results" https://www.sportinglife.com/racing Choose the date you require on the calendar icon to the right Choose the race then click "result" Then click "Racecard" on the red bar. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Escaping Captivity said: Sporting Life has forecast odds dating back to 2005. Click the link below then select "Full Results" https://www.sportinglife.com/racing Choose the date you require on the calendar icon to the right Choose the race then click "result" Then click "Racecard" on the red bar. Unfortunately the forecast in SL is dynamic so it reverts to the SP after the race. I think @HenryTD requires the pre-race forecast Edited July 21, 2018 by Valiant Thor Escaping Captivity 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Escaping Captivity Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 4 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: Unfortunately the forecast in SL is dynamic so it reverts to the SP after the race. Hmmm....I wonder how many people have collated data unaware of this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryTD Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 I think Escaping Captivity was right in the first place. Take a look at this old result for example: https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2015-07-14/bath/racecard/167321/bath-chronicle-fillies-handicap You see it includes the forecast: Lead A Merry Dance (2/1), You're My Cracker (4/1), Free To Love (5/1), Princess Tansy (11/2), Verus Delicia (IRE) (8/1), Marjong (9/1), Dangerous Age (10/1), Gower Princess (12/1) Critically, it includes the non-runner "Verus Delicia (IRE) (8/1)". That's perfect. This can be used to make an approximate rule-4 deduction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 Quote Critically, it includes the non-runner "Verus Delicia (IRE) (8/1)". That's perfect. This can be used to make an approximate rule-4 deduction. An approximate R4 deduction!! Off a sporting life betting f/c why cant you get the proper R4 deduction from here; http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/results///E/7886742/thisDate/2015/7/14///2%3a35+Bath.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryTD Posted July 21, 2018 Author Share Posted July 21, 2018 Great find. Well done :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 (edited) 8 hours ago, HenryTD said: I think Escaping Captivity was right in the first place. Take a look at this old result for example: https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/2015-07-14/bath/racecard/167321/bath-chronicle-fillies-handicap You see it includes the forecast: Lead A Merry Dance (2/1), You're My Cracker (4/1), Free To Love (5/1), Princess Tansy (11/2), Verus Delicia (IRE) (8/1), Marjong (9/1), Marjong (10/1), Gower Princess (12/1) Critically, it includes the non-runner "Verus Delicia (IRE) (8/1)". That's perfect. This can be used to make an approximate rule-4 deduction. The forecast is exactly the same as the sp or did you not notice that so that would make the 8/1 for Veruc Delicia wrong as it did not run So he is not right As for R4 if its 10p in the pound just multiply the net by .9 then add your stake How hard is that BH wonders why discussion is dying on this forum I wonder why Heres the R4 deductions Odds Deduction 1/9 or shorter 90p (in £) 2/11 to 2/17 85p 1/4 to 1/5 80p 3/10 to 2/7 75p 2/5 to 1/3 70p 8/15 to 4/9 65p 8/13 to 4/7 60p 4/5 to 4/6 55p 20/21 to 5/6 50p Evens (1/1) to 6/5 45p 5/4 to 6/4 40p 13/8 to 7/4 35p 15/8 to 9/4 30p 5/2 to 3/1 25p 10/3 to 4/1 20p 9/2 to 11/2 15p 6/1 to 9/1 10p 10/1 to 14/1 5p Edited July 21, 2018 by Valiant Thor gbettle 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 Indeed, not much in the way of discussion. I did make a post the other day on extra price races hoping it might prompt some meaningful debate but not one response. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HenryTD Posted July 22, 2018 Author Share Posted July 22, 2018 (edited) Re: "so that would make the 8/1 for Veruc Delicia wrong" I'm not sure what you mean by wrong? What do you think the 8/1 corresponds to if it's not the forecast odds? Maybe it is the actual odds at the time of withdrawal? If that's the case it's even better. Edited July 22, 2018 by HenryTD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted August 5, 2018 Share Posted August 5, 2018 Excuse the late reply, Ive had other things more important to attend to. On 7/22/2018 at 7:06 AM, HenryTD said: Re: "so that would make the 8/1 for Veruc Delicia wrong" I'm not sure what you mean by wrong? What do you think the 8/1 corresponds to if it's not the forecast odds? Maybe it is the actual odds at the time of withdrawal? If that's the case it's even better. The reason comparing the R4 above with the market is wrong is that it is the price when it was withdrawn , then the market is reformed so you cannot make any realistic comparison with the SP market from the example above. You have to compare it with the full market at the exact time of its withdrawal, which you do not have. As the removal of a horse can vastly effect the the shape of a market,whatever calculations you are attempting will have no significant relevance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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