LEE-GRAYS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 1,45 ascot sonigino 14/1 £10 e/w bet365 lost -£55 jan -£644 1st oct The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-23 13:10 Warwick Saint Segal 1.3 2022-01-23 13:30 Thurles Gerri Colombe 1.48 2022-01-23 15:15 Thurles Allaho 1.4 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 42.55 22.55 Wildgarden and The Equaliser 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 2 hours ago, gbettle said: event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-23 13:10 Warwick Saint Segal 1.3 2022-01-23 13:30 Thurles Gerri Colombe 1.48 2022-01-23 15:15 Thurles Allaho 1.4 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 42.55 22.55 have you worked out what just doing trebles would be... does doing trixie help protect the bank or cost more long term or same results? ive done the maths for jan (not including first couple with bigger odds which you wasnt usual odds). £20 x 15 is £300 so you'd be a lot better treble only for january. ill check other months worth analysing this sort of thing to check on the right plan. update december slight loss compared to doing trixie. Edited January 23, 2022 by Wildgarden The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 12.05 pau estokenia 10/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Wildgarden said: have you worked out what just doing trebles would be... does doing trixie help protect the bank or cost more long term or same results? ive done the maths for jan (not including first couple with bigger odds which you wasnt usual odds). £20 x 15 is £300 so you'd be a lot better treble only for january. ill check other months worth analysing this sort of thing to check on the right plan. Level stakes would be better for bank preservation, long term I suspect it makes no difference to the ROI whether you back in singles, doubles or trebles. gbettle, The Equaliser, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Warwick 2.50 GOOD RISK AT ALL 9/4 £20 win BSP Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 8 hours ago, gbettle said: event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-23 13:10 Warwick Saint Segal 1.3 2022-01-23 13:30 Thurles Gerri Colombe 1.48 2022-01-23 15:15 Thurles Allaho 1.4 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 42.55 22.55 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-23 13:10 Warwick Saint Segal 1.3 1 2022-01-23 13:30 Thurles Gerri Colombe 1.48 1 2022-01-23 15:15 Thurles Allaho 1.4 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 42.55 22.55 Month bets outlay return profit 1 23 460 605.11 145.11 Nigwilliam, Wildgarden, roger2256 and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildgarden Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 hour ago, gbettle said: event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-23 13:10 Warwick Saint Segal 1.3 1 2022-01-23 13:30 Thurles Gerri Colombe 1.48 1 2022-01-23 15:15 Thurles Allaho 1.4 1 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 42.55 22.55 Month bets outlay return profit 1 23 460 605.11 145.11 has your strike rate got better over last year. anything done different? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Wildgarden said: has your strike rate got better over last year. anything done different? No change to the system. You would be bonkers to be betting them as singles: 281 Wins 284.31 Expected Wins A/E 0.9884 218 Lost 499 total 56.31% SR -14.40 LSP 0.0896 Archie (499*(281-284.31)^2)/(284.31*(499-284.31)) which is a 24% chance that our result is random: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/chi-square.aspx Edited January 23, 2022 by gbettle grammar correction The Equaliser, Nigwilliam and Wildgarden 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Kem 115 Excelling 11/10 2pl. Sou 400 Vespasian 4/11 2pl. Wol 530 Major Gatsby 11/10 2pl. £20 place treble @, 6.16/1 skybet. Wildgarden, The Equaliser and Mfardeen 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-24 13:00 Southwell Swiss Connection 2.32 2022-01-24 16:00 Southwell Vespasian 2.22 2022-01-24 18:30 Wolverhampton Chorus Song 2.14 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 129.44 109.44 The Equaliser, Wildgarden and Rusty Nails 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 12.05 pau estokenia 10/1 £10 e/w bet365 lost -£75 jan -£664 1st oct The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16.20 kempton liva 8/1 £10 e/w bet365 The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang on Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 (edited) On 1/23/2022 at 10:51 AM, Wildgarden said: have you worked out what just doing trebles would be... does doing trixie help protect the bank or cost more long term or same results? @gbettle is obviously very happy with the returns (and who wouldn't with a profit most months). Keep 'em coming. Personally I am not a fan of very short prices .. but must admit to backing these selections as a TREBLE ONLY with a moderately aggressive staking plan (1-5 pts) to make the most of the winning trebles. At just £10 per point January is almost +£750 (I personally stake a bit more)...Thanks for posting. Edited January 24, 2022 by Bang on Nigwilliam, Wildgarden and gbettle 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bang on said: @gbettle is obviously very happy with the returns (and who wouldn't with a profit most months). Keep 'em coming. Personally I am not a fan of very short prices .. but must admit to backing these selections as a TREBLE ONLY with a moderately aggressive staking plan (1-5 pts) to make the most of the winning trebles. At just £10 per point January is almost +£750 (I personally stake a bit more)...Thanks for posting. Thanks @Bang on for your kind words. Wildgarden and Bang on 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 hours ago, gbettle said: No change to the system. You would be bonkers to be betting them as singles: 281 Wins 284.31 Expected Wins A/E 0.9884 218 Lost 499 total 56.31% SR -14.40 LSP If the system doesn't make a return at level stakes then I can not see the logic as to why it will make a profit in the long term backing them as multiples. Wildgarden and gbettle 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Wolverhampton 5.30 MAJOR GATSBY 5/1 £20 win BSP LEE-GRAYS, Nigwilliam, Mfardeen and 2 others 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 16 hours ago, Nigwilliam said: Kem 115 Excelling 11/10 2pl. Sou 400 Vespasian 4/11 2pl. Wol 530 Major Gatsby 11/10 2pl. £20 place treble @, 6.16/1 skybet. 1st, 2nd , 1st. Returns £120.27. Jan. . minus £30.48. alexcaruso808 and Wildgarden 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 hours ago, gbettle said: event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-24 13:00 Southwell Swiss Connection 2.32 2022-01-24 16:00 Southwell Vespasian 2.22 2022-01-24 18:30 Wolverhampton Chorus Song 2.14 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 129.44 109.44 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-24 13:00 Southwell Swiss Connection 2.32 5 2022-01-24 16:00 Southwell Vespasian 2.22 2 2022-01-24 18:30 Wolverhampton Chorus Song 2.14 3 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 0.00 -20.00 Month bets outlay return profit 1 24 480 605.11 125.11 alexcaruso808, Wildgarden and Rusty Nails 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Latest update, with a correction for a mistake early on in August: year month outlay return profit 2021 8 620 671.58 51.58 2021 9 580 573.37 -6.63 2021 10 560 756.97 196.97 2021 11 600 767.18 167.18 2021 12 560 526.09 -33.91 2022 1 480 605.11 125.11 500.30 Nigwilliam, The Equaliser, Bang on and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 hours ago, gbettle said: No change to the system. You would be bonkers to be betting them as singles: 281 Wins 284.31 Expected Wins A/E 0.9884 218 Lost 499 total 56.31% SR -14.40 LSP 0.0896 Archie (499*(281-284.31)^2)/(284.31*(499-284.31)) which is a 24% chance that our result is random: https://stattrek.com/online-calculator/chi-square.aspx I think you'll find its 76% down to randomness harry_rag, MCLARKE, gbettle and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: I think you'll find its 76% down to randomness Evening Valiant, Many thanks for your reply. And so nice to hear from you in this thread again. I guess I'm waiting for the regression to the mean anytime now LOL I wasn't kidding when I said you'd be bonkers taking them as single bets. In all seriousness, would it be not be better to break down the trixies into their individual bets, and then analyze the 3 doubles and 1 treble? Or is it really not worth it as @MCLARKE pointed out - if their isn't a LSP to speak of, no exotic bet of the singles will ever improve the system. Edited January 24, 2022 by gbettle wasn't finished Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 hours ago, MCLARKE said: Wolverhampton 5.30 MAJOR GATSBY 5/1 £20 win BSP Won. BSP 5.57 Monthly profit £ 140.03 gbettle, LEE-GRAYS, Wildgarden and 1 other 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nigwilliam Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Ling 130 Unforgiven minute 11/10 2pl. Leics 350 Xctiations 11/8 2pl. South 730 Triggered 8/11 2pl. £20 place treble. skybet. Wildgarden and alexcaruso808 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) 23 hours ago, LEE-GRAYS said: 16.20 kempton liva 8/1 £10 e/w bet365 lost -£95 jan -£684 1st oct +£1306 1st oct 2020 to 30th of sept 2021 losing big chunk of profit from last year need to get finger out Edited January 25, 2022 by LEE-GRAYS The Equaliser 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LEE-GRAYS Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 going for my old mate good 40/1 4th last time 3.10 cagnes-sur-mer frenchy 16/1 £10 e/w bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valiant Thor Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, gbettle said: In all seriousness, would it be not be better to break down the trixies into their individual bets, and then analyze the 3 doubles and 1 treble? Or is it really not worth it as @MCLARKE pointed out - if their isn't a LSP to speak of, no exotic bet of the singles will ever improve the system. In a word Yes @MCLARKE is correct in part but his statement does not paint the full picture. From what I can see your ave odds are around 1.75 , now if these were the true odds then his statement would be correct but some will be true odds of <1.75 and others will be over bet odds and should be >1.75 , so finding a method that gives a reasonable estimation of what the price should be for your selections would help with the variance . I cannot understand why your backing trixies with an ave odds so low when the break even minimum is odds of 2.00 unless as @Bang on & @Wildgarden have discussed for bank retention. All your profits are from the treble coming up as @ those odds in most cases a double does not break even , I guess its some punters like regular hits to keep the interest up while others can wait a while between drinks Personally I'd either do Doubles (go to the bar more often ave 6% return for a win) Treble (more time between drinks ave 435% return for a win) IMO To find out which suits your style of punting best I'd do a Monte Carlo sim of 1 months results in excel then expand the results for an expected 12 months using the Data Table in the What-If Analysis, This will give you a good indication of what to expect. ATB VT ? Edited January 25, 2022 by Valiant Thor MCLARKE, alexcaruso808, gbettle and 3 others 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 event_date time course selection betfair position 2022-01-25 13:10 Down Royal Deploy The Getaway 1.74 2022-01-25 14:50 Leicester Walk In Clover 1.57 2022-01-25 17:00 Southwell Blue Trail 1.52 Bet Total Outlay Total Return Total Profit Trixie 20.00 (4 bets of 5.00) 59.58 39.58 Nigwilliam, Rusty Nails, Wildgarden and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbettle Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 44 minutes ago, Valiant Thor said: In a word Yes @MCLARKE is correct in part but his statement does not paint the full picture. From what I can see your ave odds are around 1.75 , now if these were the true odds then his statement would be correct but some will be true odds of <1.75 and others will be over bet odds and should be >1.75 , so finding a method that gives a reasonable estimation of what the price should be for your selections would help with the variance . I cannot understand why your backing trixies with an ave odds so low when the break even minimum is odds of 2.00 unless as @Bang on & @Wildgarden have discussed for bank retention. All your profits are from the treble coming up as @ those odds in most cases a double does not break even , I guess its some punters like regular hits to keep the interest up while others can wait a while between drinks Personally I'd either do Doubles (go to the bar more often ave 6% return for a win) Treble (more time between drinks ave 435% return for a win) IMO To find out which suits your style of punting best I'd do a Monte Carlo sim of 1 months results in excel then expand the results for an expected 12 months using the Data Table in the What-If Analysis, This will give you a good indication of what to expect. ATB VT ? Many thanks VT, Always appreciate your comments & observations. I've done Monte Carlo simulations before so I had better fill my boots and crunch some stats. I'm also thinking of breaking up the trixie, into the doubles and treble, £10 total stake each. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MCLARKE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Down Royal 2.10 BALLYCOOSE 100/30 £20 win BSP Wildgarden 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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