The Daily Spread

[harry_rag]

Man C v Liverpool: Buy Mane goal minutes for 1 point at 11 with SX

Makes some appeal at the best available 4/1 anytime, I'd equate this to half a point better than that and will be void in the unlikely event of him not starting. I think he'll go off at a slightly bigger than this, especially should Salah not start.

[harry_rag]

CSKA Moscow v Arsenal: Buy Wernbloom goal minutes for 1.5 points at 11 with SX

Had a look at him as he's the RP's tip for the match as first goalscorer at 9/1. You'd do well to beat 11/4 anytime but I'd equate a buy at 11 to around 4/1 anytime. SPIN are 15 to buy so much more in line with the fixed odds market. All in all, this looks a reasonable bet at the price.

[harry_rag]

Last bet void (non-starter) so just the loss on Mane to update.

1528 points risked and 1194 returned, -334 points with an ROI of -21.86%.

19 winners from 65 bets.

[harry_rag]

Gloucester v Harlequins: Buy Quins hotshots for 1 point at 31 with SPIN (Alofa, Marchant, Walker, Brown)

SX asking 37 with Care instead of Brown, this is one of my classic takes on a value bet, a set of hotshots that I assess as offering an edge of >10%. Let's see how it pans out.

[harry_rag]

Another nilling. Surely someone is making hay by fading these selections by now? The thread's a goldmine in that respect!

1559 points risked and 1194 returned, -365 points with an ROI of -23.41%.

19 winners from 66 bets.

[harry_rag]

Brighton v Spurs: Buy Lucas goal minutes for 1 point at 14 with SX

Taking a chance on the Spurs starting line up here but bet will be void if he doesn't start and think the price is reasonable if he does.

[Data]

On 15/04/2018 at 11:57 AM, harry_rag said:

Another nilling. Surely someone is making hay by fading these selections by now? The thread's a goldmine in that respect!

1559 points risked and 1194 returned, -365 points with an ROI of -23.41%.

19 winners from 66 bets.

We all know what is certain happen if anyone did oppose all your spreads (or mine!) with cash . . .

So, the sooner they start the better. 

[harry_rag]

Another loser. Not quitting till at least the 100 bet mark. Hopefully, by then, things look a little more presentable.

1573 points risked and 1194 returned, -379 points with an ROI of -24.09%.

19 winners from 67 bets.

[harry_rag]

Gloucester v Newcastle: Buy Kibirige try minutes for 1 point at 11 with SX

SPIN go 11-14 so a "spread free" trade. I'd equate buying at 11 to an anytime bet at almost 7/2 which seems decent give that the next best after 11/4 with SX is just 9/4.

Having had a look at the guy's stats, this looks a perfectly sound bet to me (but so have most of the others in this thread)! 

[Data]

I feel your pain.

[harry_rag]

After a lie down in a darkened room, here we go again!

Leinster v Scarlets: Buy Gibson-Park try minutes at 6 and Leavy try minutes at 6, both for 1 point and with SPIN

Basically buying these two at a combined price of 12 when they would cost you 23 elsewhere. As is often the case, I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Neither player is great in terms of prolific try scoring but I'm not sure either deserve to be the equivalent of a 13/2 anytime shot (best available prices are 7/2 and 11/4).

[harry_rag]

11 and 12 point losses on the last couple of bets.

1596 points risked and 1194 returned, -402 points with an ROI of -25.19%.

19 winners from 69 bets.

Edited April 25, 2018 by harry_rag
"Points risked" figure corrected

[harry_rag]

Everton v Newcastle: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 26 with SPIN (Tosun, Rooney, Slimani and Perez)

Given a choice I'd prefer the SX quartet with Walcott instead of Rooney but not when it would mean paying 6 points higher. Enough chance of the virtual break even for 1 goal to take a chance on this one.

[harry_rag]

On 4/23/2018 at 7:40 PM, harry_rag said:

Everton v Newcastle: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 26 with SPIN (Tosun, Rooney, Slimani and Perez)

Given a choice I'd prefer the SX quartet with Walcott instead of Rooney but not when it would mean paying 6 points higher.

WIth a crushing sense of inevitability, Walcott scores the only goal of the game.

1622 points risked and 1194 returned, -428 points with an ROI of -26.39%.

19 winners from 70 bets.

Edited April 25, 2018 by harry_rag
"Points risked" and ROI figures corrected

[harry_rag]

Liverpool/Roma: Buy Hotshots for 1 point at 44 with SPIN (Salah, Firmino, Mane and Dzeko)

Unusually a 3 to 1 split for the horshots and, given how prolific the Liverpool 3 have been this season, I have to play this when I make it worth almost 4 points more. Deja vu merchants, after last night, will be backing Under to score a goal or two as he's in the hotshots elsewhere rather than Mane (with the price only 2 points lower).

[Torque]

I'm no expert in spread betting, but that must be a big win. Reward for your perseverance and proof that the higher the odds you operate at the greater the impact of variance and thus the potential for big deficits to be recovered if enough value bets are placed 

[harry_rag]

Yeah, 6 of the 7 goals scored by the hotshots for a 106 point profit. It was well overdue for a result like that to feature in here. They're not that common but they do happen reasonably often!

Update to follow when I get chance to double check the figures as I think they've gone a bit awry somewhere.

[Timmy1515]

9 hours ago, harry_rag said:

Liverpool/Roma: Buy Hotshots for 1 point at 44 with SPIN (Salah, Firmino, Mane and Dzeko)

Unusually a 3 to 1 split for the horshots and, given how prolific the Liverpool 3 have been this season, I have to play this when I make it worth almost 4 points more. Deja vu merchants, after last night, will be backing Under to score a goal or two as he's in the hotshots elsewhere rather than Mane (with the price only 2 points lower).

Well Done @harry_rag with this selection 

[harry_rag]

Spotted where an error crept in a couple of bets back. Good win last night but still a long way to go to wipe out the losses.

1666 points risked and 1344 returned, -322 points with an ROI of -19.33%.

20 winners from 71 bets.

[harry_rag]

Bayern Munich v Real Madrid: Buy Bayern corners squared for 1 point at 46 with SPIN

Put simply, bet wins if they get 7 or more corners and loses if not. Could just buy their total corners at 6.25 but have gone for this option which wins you more if they manage 8 or more but also loses you more if they fall short.

Fancy home corners and total booking in this game but prefer fixed odds for the latter.

[harry_rag]

10 corners for Bayern for a 54 point profit.

1712 points risked and 1444 returned, -268 points with an ROI of -15.65%

[harry_rag]

Arsenal v A Madrid: Buy Arsenal corners squared for 1 point at 40 with SPIN

I'm not planning a serious assault on the corners markets but, for tonight, I'm again siding with the hosts racking a few up. I'm not as optimistic about the upside as I was last night but I've just about favoured the corners squared over their total corners at 5.75, despite the lure of a small profit for 6 rather than a small loss.

[harry_rag]

Well, I didn't see that coming! 11 corners for Arsenal for a make up of 121 and an 81 point profit. I actually considered closing out the bet at 68 at half time and spent the first part of the second half thinking I'd regret not doing so. Needless to say, I'm glad I followed my "rule" of "never close out a bet".

1752 points risked and 1565 returned, -187 points with an ROI of -10.67%

[harry_rag]

Fulham v Sunderland: Buy Sunderland corners squared for 1 point at 18 with SPIN

I know, looks like I'm stuck in a rut with this bet now! 

Sunderland have gained 8, 13, 7 and 6 corners in their last 4 away games. With relegation confirmed I'm taking a chance that it's worth a relatively cheap buy that they turn up tonight with a gung ho attitude that sees them gain the 5 or more corners required for a profit.

[Data]

Well done @harry_rag showing that sticking with your principles through all adversities comes good in the end. Only wish I had displayed a similar discipline!  

On 26/04/2018 at 10:03 PM, harry_rag said:

I actually considered closing out the bet at 68 at half time and spent the first part of the second half thinking I'd regret not doing so. Needless to say, I'm glad I followed my "rule" of "never close out a bet".

My rule also is never to close a spread early. Crazily, even on the odd occasion where I've placed a trade incorrectly / or on the wrong team (somehow easier to do with the diversity of markets available) I'll let the bet run.

[harry_rag]

Cheers, no joy on my 3rd visit to the corners squared well, 2 corners for a 14 point loss.

1770 points risked and 1569 returned, -201 points with an ROI of -11.36%

[harry_rag]

Edinburgh v Glasgow: Buy Edinburgh hotshots for 1 point at 30 with SPIN (VD Merwe, Johnstone, Fife, Kinghorn)

31-35 elsewhere and I'd say the true price sits in the middle of that spread. One of my preferred scenarios of a hotshots buy with a perceived edge of 10% or more.

[Data]

Another good call and the game's not finished yet!  And of course congratulations on being the first back to -200. 

[harry_rag]

Thanks. Made up at 58 via 2 tries and a "non-runner".

1800 points risked and 1627 returned, -173 points with an ROI of -9.61%

[harry_rag]

Toulouse v La Rochelle: Buy Toulouse hotshots for 1 point at 28 with SX (Medard, Fickou, Kolbe, Ramos)

Part objective (I make the price around a couple of points too low) and part subjective (I expect the hosts to win well and think there's a very good prospect of at least 1 try from the 4 named players). As with all spread bets, the worst thing that can happen (a nilling) has to be taken onboard but the respective chances of 0 tries (maximum loss), 1 try (virtual break even) and 2 or more (profit) persuade me this is a decent bet.