harry_rag Posted March 14, 2018 Author Share Posted March 14, 2018 Small win last night, perhaps luckily given how long the game stayed goalless. One for tonight with its genesis in the league 1 & 2 footy thread. Buy Bradford goal rush for 2 points at 10 with SPIN. Enough chance of 1 to break even at worst to tempt me in here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 15, 2018 Author Share Posted March 15, 2018 No joy last night, one for early tomorrow. Chiefs v Bulls: Buy Rossouw try minutes for 1 point at 8 with SX Put simply, I make that close to 5/1 anytime and that feels like a value bet to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 16, 2018 Author Share Posted March 16, 2018 Small profit on United goals, loss on Bradford goal rush and 31 point profit on Rossouw. Shame both his tries came before the break. 1130 points risked and 918 returned, -212 points with an ROI of -18.76%. 16 winners from 50 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 17, 2018 Author Share Posted March 17, 2018 Wakefield v Widnes: Buy Widnes hotshots for 1 point at 24 with SPIN (Hanbury, Marsh, Inu, Mellor) 28 to buy elsewhere, even allowing for the weather I think these 4 are worth slightly more than a try rather than slightly less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 18, 2018 Author Share Posted March 18, 2018 Void last night, game abandoned. Toulouse v Montpellier: Buy Mjekevu try minutes for 1 point at 14 with SX Put simply, looks like value to me at the equivalent of 13/5 anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 No joy with the last bet. 1144 points risked and 918 returned, -226 points with an ROI of -19.76%. 16 winners from 51 bets. For tonight, buy Panama goal minutes v Denmark for 1 point at 30 with SPIN Will no doubt be back later to say "never bet on friendlies" but RP have made a decent case for both teams to score in this game and I like the prospect of any Panama goal coming later on when mass substitutions come in to play. Having weighed up the options I've decided I'm going to have a modest bet on the visitors scoring and that this is the best way of doing it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 22, 2018 Author Share Posted March 22, 2018 Never bet on friendlies and, perhaps, never put too much faith in a RP preview! I'm reasonably disciplined generally but that was, perhaps, a sloppy bet and certainly not one strong enough to put up in this thread. Lesson learned, added to the list! Tiffy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 Montpellier v Castres: Buy Montpellier hotshots for 1 point at 37 with SPIN (Nadolo, Tomane, Fall, Mogg) 44 to buy elsewhere which is only a fraction higher than my valuation of this quartet. My most pessimistic valuation makes 37 a fair price so happy to bet on this one. Win or lose, a hotshots bet where I have an idea of my own price and there's a double digit edge is pretty much the strongest type of bet I can put up in this thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 24, 2018 Author Share Posted March 24, 2018 I've added to that a buy of Castres hotshots at 20 with the same firm. (Vaupuli, Palis, Batlle, Dumora), making it a 1 point buy of match hotshots at 57. I make them worth a shade over 25 so an even bigger perceived edge for the visitors than the hosts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 25, 2018 Author Share Posted March 25, 2018 No joy last night, a try for each set of hotshots made for a 7 point loss. 1 more try would have been an 18 point profit. No complaints and happy the bet was value which is better than the regret that goes with a less confident bet. For today: Leicester v Wasps: Buy Leicester hotshots for 1 point at 34 with SPIN (May, Tuilagi, Thompstone, Veainu) 40 to buy with SX which means their assessment is closer to mine. Slightly less than a double digit edge on this one but, looking at the player stats, it's still big enough to justify a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 26, 2018 Author Share Posted March 26, 2018 30, 7 and 34 point losses since the last update. 1265 points risked and 968 returned, -297 points with an ROI of -23.48%. 16 winners from 54 bets. Tonight I've gone for a 1 point buy of Crusaders goal rush v Warrenpoint Town at 36 with SPIN. I think this underestimates the prospects of them scoring 4 or more goals tonight and certainly offers better value than the fixed odds. Not one of my most confident trades (in terms of having a clear view of my own price) but still happy it doesn't fall into the "ill disciplined category". Let's hope that view isn't tested by an unexpected clean sheet for the hosts! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 27, 2018 Author Share Posted March 27, 2018 4 goals for a 14 point profit. 1301 points risked and 1018 returned, -283 points with an ROI of -21.75%. 17 winners from 55 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 28, 2018 Author Share Posted March 28, 2018 Cowboys v Panthers: Buy Hess try minutes for 1 point at 18 with SX 5 points higher elsewhere, this is the standout way of backing him in this game (their 15/8 anytime being next best) and I’d say they’ve underestimated the prospect of him scoring by a big enough margin to have a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 29, 2018 Author Share Posted March 29, 2018 No try for Hess. 1315 points risked and 1018 returned, -297 points with an ROI of -22.59%. 17 winners from 56 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 Pau v Stade Francais: Buy SF hotshots for 1 point at 20 with SPIN (Camara, Yobo, Millet, O'Connor) Bottom line, for me this is over 2 points too low based on how I'd value them. I'm always inclined to play a hotshots bet where my perceived edge is 10% or more. Ideally I'd like strong encouragement from a look at the player stats. In this case I'd describe it more as cautious rather than strong, but good enough to buy at a price that will show 5 points profit for a single try. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 30, 2018 Author Share Posted March 30, 2018 A try each for the first and last named for a 30 point profit. 1335 points risked and 1068 returned, -267 points with an ROI of -20%. 18 winners from 57 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 1, 2018 Author Share Posted April 1, 2018 Dundee v Hearts: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 30 with SPIN 36 to buy elsewhere, true price probably somewhere in the middle for me, happy to buy with a perceived edge of just over 10%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 1, 2018 Author Share Posted April 1, 2018 A single hotshots goal for a 5 point loss.. 1365 points risked and 1093 returned, -272 points with an ROI of -19.93%. 18 winners from 58 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 2, 2018 Author Share Posted April 2, 2018 Preston v Derby: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 28 with SPIN (Maguire, Barkhuizen, Vydra, Nugent) Always reluctant to put up the first bet of the day that I've looked at, let alone the first I've backed, but this price is too low whichever what I look at it, and close enough to being break even for a single goal to take the chance that there could be the 2 or more required for profit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 3, 2018 Author Share Posted April 3, 2018 Another 28 points added to the debit column! 1393 points risked and 1093 returned, -300 points with an ROI of -21.54%. 18 winners from 59 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 4, 2018 Author Share Posted April 4, 2018 Liverpool v Man C: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 34 with SPIN, Salah, Firmino, Jesus & Sane. Was 40 elsewhere, cheap at 34 in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 5, 2018 Author Share Posted April 5, 2018 9 point loss but no regrets as think that price was too low as, hopefully, this one is! Raiders v Bulldogs: Buy Cotric try minutes for 1 point at 18 with SX A whole 9 points higher elsewhere, this definitely strikes me as generous. A couple of late tries would do for me, I'm not greedy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 6, 2018 Author Share Posted April 6, 2018 Another 27 points lost on the last 2 bets. 1445 points risked and 1118 returned, -327 points with an ROI of -22.63%. 18 winners from 61 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 7, 2018 Author Share Posted April 7, 2018 Sampdoria v Genoa: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 26 with SPIN (Quagliarella, Zapata, Lapadula and Pandev) Looks worth at least 30 to me. 34 to buy elsewhere. Let's hope for a goal fest to chip away at that negative p/l figure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 After a nilling on a buy at 26 last night I'm tempting fate with a buy at the same price today! Racing 92 v Toulon: Buy Toulon hotshots for 1 point at 26 with SPIN (Radradra, Fekitoa, Ashton, Bonneval) Toulon stronger at home but always a threat, not least with Ashton involved. I get a notional value of 30 for these 4 so have to get involved with a perceived edge of over 18%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 8, 2018 Author Share Posted April 8, 2018 Another 27 points lost on the last 2 bets (26 and 1). 1497 points risked and 1143 returned, -354 points with an ROI of -23.65%. 18 winners from 63 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Data Posted April 9, 2018 Share Posted April 9, 2018 Maybe we should be competing to see who can be first back to -300, rather than -200? We can then change it to first back to -400 at a later stage. harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 I seem to have developed an unerring ability to identify my losing bets and post them on here! I suppose the logical thing is to stop placing these bets and just post them on here, with the thread becoming some sort of spread betting equivalent of the picture of Dorian Gray! I'm not claiming that all my other bets are winners, but it's starting to defy logic how unrepresentative the performance in here is becoming! Still a small sample size though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 9, 2018 Author Share Posted April 9, 2018 Here we go again! RB Leipzig v Bayer Leverkusen: Buy Keita's goal minutes at 10 and Brandt's also at 10, both with SX All in all, both players look fairly cheap to me at a price I'd equate to 9/2 anytime. Count this as a single bet, buying both players for 1 point at a combined price of 20. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted April 10, 2018 Author Share Posted April 10, 2018 A 51st minute goal for Brandt returns a 31 point profit. 1517 points risked and 1194 returned, -323 points with an ROI of -21.29%. 19 winners from 64 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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