harry_rag Posted February 14, 2018 Author Share Posted February 14, 2018 No joy yesterday, a slightly higher buy price today, Buy hotshots in Real Madrid v PSG at 46 with SPIN (Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, Edinson Cavani & Neymar) 54 to buy elsewhere which is more where I would expect to see it pitched. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 15, 2018 Author Share Posted February 15, 2018 FC Copenhagen v A Madrid: Buy Partey goal minutes for 2 points at 4 with SPIN Cheap for a player who's been good to me in the past, low risk enough to stake 2 points rather than the usual 1. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 17, 2018 Author Share Posted February 17, 2018 Toulon v Stade Francais: Buy Stade Francais hotshots for 2 points at 14 with SPIN (Macalou, Yobo, Arias, Martial) I make these 4 worth just over 19 so a bigger than average edge, in theory at least. SPIN ask you to pay 17 with Danty in for Macalou and I'd put a similar value on that combo as well. 2 point stake given the perceived edge and the relatively low buy price. I once bought hotshots in a French rugby game at 17 and it made up at 175. Something along those lines today would be most welcome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 Will update after today, mostly losers since the last one! Racing 92 v La Rochelle: Buy La Rochelle hotshots for 1 point at 25 with SX (Roudil, Murimurivalu, Sinzelle, Rattez) Not the strongest selection but strong enough. Feels like you're being asked to pay exactly 1 try for a quartet that are worth just a little bit more than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 18, 2018 Author Share Posted February 18, 2018 For all my waxing lyrical on the joys of spread betting over in the footy threads, this is turning into a masterclass on how not to do it! 711.5 points risked and 378 returned, -333.5 points with an ROI of -46.87%. 8 winners from 35 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 21, 2018 Author Share Posted February 21, 2018 Derby v Leeds: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 28 with SPIN (Vydra, Lawrence, Lasogga and Roofe) I'd rather have Nugent than Lawrence but still a bet for me at the price. Obviously possible to lose the maximum 28 points but I think there's a decent prospect of at least one goal from these players and am willing to risk that there may be more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 23, 2018 Author Share Posted February 23, 2018 Livingston v Dundee U: Buy Robinson goal minutes for 2 points at 7 with SPIN 10 elsewhere, scored 6 in 15 this season, never in the region of a 13/2 shot to score anytime in my view. (But as followers of this thread will be aware, my view doesn't necessarily count for much!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 24, 2018 Author Share Posted February 24, 2018 Liverpool v West Ham: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 39 with SPIN (Salah, Firmino, Arnautovic, Lanzini) I could make a case for this being worth 5 points more and never a bad thing to have the Liverpool forwards on your side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 Will update after today but if I can sneak a win with this bet I head into the uncharted waters of 3 consecutive winning bets, albeit none of them particularly emphatic. Saracens v Leicester: Buy Leicester hotshots for 1 point at 24 with SPIN (Holmes, Tuilagi, Thompstone, Veainu) As with getting odds against about what you regard as an odds on shot, I think these 4 are worth a bit more than a try rather than a bit less. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 25, 2018 Author Share Posted February 25, 2018 A 51 point profit on the hotshots today makes for a decent return since the last update. 816.5 points risked and 572 returned, -244.5 points with an ROI of -29.94%. 11 winners from 39 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 Levante v Betis: Buy Sergio Leon goal minutes for 1 point at 15 with SX SPIN go 15-18. Just enough edge in the price for me to buy; think getting close to 3/1 about something you wouldn't lay at more than 5/2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 26, 2018 Author Share Posted February 26, 2018 A 69th minute goal makes for a 54 point profit. 831.5 points risked and 641 returned, -190.5 points with an ROI of -22.91%. 12 winners from 40 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 27, 2018 Author Share Posted February 27, 2018 Espanyol v R Madrid: Buy Isco goal minutes for 1 point at 11 with SX One of those players who I always seem to get wrong when it comes to backing and swerving but I'll risk him tonight at that price. Roughly 4/1 anytime equivalent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted February 28, 2018 Author Share Posted February 28, 2018 Should've known better! That was a slightly undisciplined play if I'm honest. 842.5 points risked and 641 returned, -201.5 points with an ROI of -23.92%. 12 winners from 41 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 1, 2018 Author Share Posted March 1, 2018 Arsenal v Man City: Buy Hotshots for 1 point at 34 with SPIN (Aubameyang, Ozil, Aguero, De Bruyne) A definite edge (2.5 points at least) for me in this price and always worth taking even a modest edge when you've got Aguero on your side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 Buy Widnes hotshots at 25 with SPIN (Hanbury, Marsh, Inu, Chamberlain) Chance of at least 1 try from those 4 good enough to tempt me in at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 A nilling last night but an 8 point profit tonight (Marsh try and 8 points for Inu not taking any part). That bet was to 1 point stake as all will be unless stated otherwise. 901.5 points risked and 674 returned, -227.5 points with an ROI of -25.26%. 13 winners from 43 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 2, 2018 Author Share Posted March 2, 2018 A slightly unusual scenario in tomorrow's first game, I'm buying both team's hotshots at relatively high prices (thus risking a big hit to the bottom line in this thread!). Buy Sunwolves hotshots at 40 with SPIN (Tupou, Lafaele, Yamada, Robinson) Buy Rebels hotshots at 56 with Spreadex (Hodge, Naivalu, Maddocks, D. Haylett-Petty) Bottom line is I make both prices wrong by over 12% and I'd rarely pass up that sort of edge. I've looked at the players stats and it doesn't put me off pulling the trigger. Essentially I need this octet of players to muster at least 4 tries between them to show a profit. Let's see how it pans out Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 29 points profit there with 5 hotshots tries, including a hat trick from Maddocks. I'm counting this as one bet, a buy of match hotshots at 96. If you chose to class it as 2 it would have been one winner and one loser as the Sunwolves foursome made up at 25. 997.5 points risked and 799 returned, -198.5 points with an ROI of -19.9%. 14 winners from 44 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 5, 2018 Author Share Posted March 5, 2018 Ingolstadt v Bochum: Buy Morales goal minutes for 1 point at 6 with SPIN Appeals as I'd equate that to around 15/2 anytime. I'd tend to agree with SX who are 9 to buy which pitches him at more like a 5/1 shot, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 6, 2018 Author Share Posted March 6, 2018 PSG v Real Madrid: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 51 with SPIN (Cavani, Mbappe, Ronaldo and Benzema) Essentially my favourite type of spread bet, a hotshots bet offering (by my dubious reckoning) a double digit edge. SX are 57 to buy and that's what I'd have expected to see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 @harry_rag i know you mentioned this thread before, bit I have only just discovered it! Ill be keeping a close eye on it as I may be able to learn something Good luck harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Thanks, hoping I learn a bit too, in terms of discipline and bet selection. First target is to get the thread back in the black after a poor start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Haha yes! I was pleased with myself for resisting the urge to back Liverpool to score early last night! I'll wait until you are on a good run, then I'll lump some dosh on Cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 Yeah, time it right and get your money down in time for me hitting a hot streak (hopefully)! Have you also seen Data's thread focusing on the mini performance market? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 7, 2018 Author Share Posted March 7, 2018 6 and 1 point losses from the last couple of bets. 1,054.5 points risked and 849 returned, -205.5 points with an ROI of -19.49%. 14 winners from 46 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiffy Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, harry_rag said: Yeah, time it right and get your money down in time for me hitting a hot streak (hopefully)! Have you also seen Data's thread focusing on the mini performance market? Cheers, no I hadn't seen that, I'll check it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 9, 2018 Author Share Posted March 9, 2018 Warrington v St Helens: Buy Swift try minutes for 1 point at 19 with SPIN Say that equates to 2.8 anytime when the best available is 2.4 (if you're lucky). Also, SX go six points higher and have him as odds on to score a try in their fixed odds market. On balance, there's a difference of opinion here and I'm happy to speculate that SPIN may be the ones who are wrong. His stats for Saints would support that, even if last season was slightly less productive than previous ones. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 11, 2018 Author Share Posted March 11, 2018 No joy with Swift. 1,073.5 points risked and 849 returned, -224.5 points with an ROI of -20.91%. 14 winners from 47 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted March 13, 2018 Author Share Posted March 13, 2018 Man U v Sevilla: Buy total goals for 10 points at 2.85 with Star Spreads I've been drawn into this by the offer of a bonus goal if there are 6 or more goals in the game. I've a reasonable liking for the prospect of 3 or more goals and the prospect of the unlikely bonus has tempted me in. I have a reasonable record when taking advantage of these occasional offers from this firm (i.e. winning more often than not and occasionally hitting the bonus) so hopefully that continues tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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