harry_rag Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Not the most cryptic of thread titles. Following on from the "Nice Work.." thread where I struggled to find one fixed odds bet a week and to limit myself to one spread bet a week, this thread will be for spread bets that strike me as offering decent value. These will be bets I would have had anyway, whether I posted them or not. There will be one bet a day at most and, I expect, a selection most days. The exception will be those days where I don't have any spread bets or those days where none have struck me as being worth posting. Starts tomorrow, see how it goes for the next couple of months. Stakes will usually be to 1 point unless the volatility of the bet dictates otherwise. Torque and vikki37 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikki37 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Good luck. Hope it all goes well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 Cheers, let's kick off with a 1 point buy of Guerreiro goal minutes at 8 with Spreadex (SX for convenience from here on in) in Dortmund v APOEL. I just don't think he should be the equivalent of an 11/2 anytime shot, which I believe this price implies. You might find 5/1 in a place or two if you're lucky but he's far shorter in most places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 A 29th minute goal makes for a profitable start though, on this occasion, fixed odds would have been a better option. 8 points risked and 29 returned, plus 21 with an ROI *for what it's worth this early) of 262.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 1, 2017 Author Share Posted November 1, 2017 I'm going in early for tomorrow's bet, a 1 point buy of Rigoni's goal minutes at 13 with SPIN, for Zenit at Rosenborg. No prices with SX so taking a risk that they go up lower but happy to do so rather than miss the price. Flagged as an anytime bet at around 5/2 by someone who I regard as a sound judge, I'd equate the spread price around the 10/3 mark. He has 5 goals in 3 appearances in the Europa League and looks like a reasonable enough bet tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky101 Posted November 2, 2017 Share Posted November 2, 2017 Will be following with interest Harry.... GL harry_rag 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 Zenit scored a late goal but not Rigoni unfortunately, so a 13 point loss on the bet. 21 points risked and 29 returned, plus 8 with an ROI of 38.1% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 2, 2017 Author Share Posted November 2, 2017 For tomorrow, I've found myself tempted into a bet on the early Rugby League World Cup game. Australia v France: Buy France multi points for 1 point at 6 with SPIN This is a bet on the number of points France score in the 1st half multiplied by the number they score in the second so it will make up at zero if they fail to score in either half. That's a real prospect given that they're as big as even money to score a single point but the downside is small enough to happily take the risk. I think Australia will win this comfortably but I fancy France to stay within the 56 point handicap and can't see them being shut out. Even a single try in each half would see a make up of 16 so there's much more upside than downside. Let's hope the Aussies are more focused on attack than defence! I've also taken the 11/10 PP offer for >0.5 France tries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 Well the 11/10 landed but a bit was given back on the spread bet, with 6 points scored in the first half but nothing added after the break. The dreaded "nilling", though not that frightening when the buy price is as low as 6! 27 points risked and 29 returned, plus 2 with an ROI of 7.41% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 3, 2017 Author Share Posted November 3, 2017 Another early pick for tomorrow, again in the RLWC. Samoa v Tonga: Buy Taumalolo's "super mega" try minutes at 11 with SX His regular try minutes buy price is 8 but, for the extra 3 points premium, we get the time of his 2nd try doubled and 3rd try trebled, should he score more than one try. Let's just say that they rate this guy a lot lower than the fixed odds firms do (as they did last week when he scored a single try in the 17th minute). They may be right as it doesn't always pay to follow the herd but I'm happy to take them on at the price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 No joy yesterday so, after a winning start, 3 straight losers see me in the black. 38 points risked and 29 returned, -9 points with an ROI of -23.68% Today I'm straying out of my usual "buy low" comfort zone for a buy of Montpellier hotshots at 50 v Clermont (25 points per Nadolo, Serfontein, Tomane or Immelman try). My indicative price is almost 10 points higher making for a (very rare) perceived edge of almost 20%. SX have one player different and go 54-58. I'd price their foursome at just over 60 but I wouldn't want to dispute that small a margin. Anything's possible but there's enough chance for 3 or more tries from those players (2 would effectively be a push) to persuade me to buy at 50. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 5, 2017 Author Share Posted November 5, 2017 2 Nadolo tries made for a total of 50 so the bet was a push. A brace for Steyn meant the SX hotshots made up at 100 which is frustrating but no regrets as the right thing to, in the long term, is to take the bet that offers most value. 88 points risked and 79 returned, -9 points with an ROI of -10.23% Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Dipping into German B2 for tonight's punt, buy total goals in Nurnberg v Ingolstadt for 10 points at 2.85 with SPIN. For me this is like getting a bit better than 2/1 about >3.5 goals when it's generally shorter than that. Enough of a modest upside for just 3 goals to persuade me in. As high as 3.1 to buy elsewhere. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 goals so "modest upside" it is. 116.5 points risked and 109 returned, -7.5 points with an ROI of -6.44% 2 winners from 6 bets (and 1 push, or break even). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Detroit v Green Bay:Aaron Jones TD minutes for 1 point at 11 with SX Fixed odds has him as the shortest priced anytime TD scorer but there are several more expensive buys that him on the spreads. By my rough comparison I'd equate a buy at 11 as akin to 5/2 anytime and that would be a very backable price. I've much less experience when it comes to NFL compared to football and rugby but this is a cheap enough buy to chance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 7, 2017 Author Share Posted November 7, 2017 No TD for Jones in the early hours. 127.5 points risked and 109 returned, -18.5 points with an ROI of -14.51% 2 winners from 7 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 8, 2017 Author Share Posted November 8, 2017 Chester v Wrexham: Buy Archer's goal minutes for 1 point at 12 with SX Has 1 in 2 appearances since being brought in from Stourbridge where he was fairly prolific. Not the equivalent of bigger than 7/2 to score anytime tonight in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 No joy again. 139.5 points risked and 109 returned, -30.5 points with an ROI of -21.86% 2 winners from 8 bets. For tonight, buy Honduras bookings v Australia for 1 point at 25 with SPIN (10 points per yellow card and 25 per red). You can get 11/8 for them to get 30 or more bookings points with Skybet if you fancy a fixed odds interest. It was the write up for that being tipped that persuaded me to go for the buy. Price elsewhere is 3 points higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 10, 2017 Author Share Posted November 10, 2017 4 yellow cards for each team so Honduras bookings make up at 40 for a 15 point profit. 164.5 points risked and 149 returned, -15.5 points with an ROI of -9.42%. 3 winners from 9 bets. Early Rugby League World Cup action tomorrow, buy Godinet's try minutes for 1 point at 12 with SPIN for Samoa v Scotland. I make that better than 7/2 anytime which looks good based on his stats in a game where Samoa are 36 point favourites. He's 11/5 best with the fixed odds firms but shorter than 2/1 in a lot of places. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 14, 2017 Author Share Posted November 14, 2017 No try for Godinet. 176.5 points risked and 149 returned, -27.5 points with an ROI of -15.58%. 3 winners from 10 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 16, 2017 Author Share Posted November 16, 2017 Tomorrow morning, Australia v Samoa (RLWC QF): Buy Samoa multi points for 1 point at 10 with SPIN Market is based on the team's 1st half points multiplied by their 2nd half points so a try either side of the break would make for a small profit. There's a decent prospect of a nilling here given Australia's defensive performance so far but I'm happy to risk a 10 point loss. This is more of a gut feel bet than an objective one based on my own view of the true price but I just fancy a more expansive display from Samoa and can see the Aussies running riot while allowing a few scores at the other end. If you want a safer spread play (without the volatility of the 1st half/second half split) you can buy their total points at 6.5 with SX. If you want a fixed odds bet then >6.5 points is 11/10 with Coral. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 18, 2017 Author Share Posted November 18, 2017 No points for Samoa so a loser however you may have tried to back it! 186.5 points risked and 149 returned, -37.5 points with an ROI of -20.11%. 3 winners from 11 bets. For today, Leicester v Man C: Sell time of first Leicester goal for 1 point at 61 with Star Spreads Ok at 59 elsewhere but pleased to get just over an hour for the home side to find the back of the net. City clearly the better team but I think their favouritism has been overstated in most markets and this is my preferred way of taking a contrary view. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 19, 2017 Author Share Posted November 19, 2017 No goal for Leicester so the maximum 29 point loss. This thread proving hugely profitable for anyone choosing to bet the other way. So far, a blindfold monkey on a unicycle chucking darts at a list of potential bets (with its wrong paw) would probably be doing better! 215.5 points risked and 149 returned, -66.5 points with an ROI of -30.86%. 3 winners from 12 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 20, 2017 Author Share Posted November 20, 2017 Brighton v Stoke: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 23 with SPIN. I make it worth at least 25. Pays 25 points per goal from any of Murray, Knockaert, Choupo-Moting and Shaqiri. Murray's pulling most of the weight here, worth a go when a single goal is enough to edge in front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 21, 2017 Author Share Posted November 21, 2017 Back in the winners enclosure with an emphatic 2 point profit! 238.5 points risked and 174 returned, -64.5 points with an ROI of -27.04%. 4 winners from 13 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 25, 2017 Author Share Posted November 25, 2017 Man U v Brighton: Buy hotshots for 1 point at 30 with SPIN (25 points per Lukaku, Martial, Rashford or Murray goal). Let's say an appealing price and leave it at that! Would probably be a buy even if it followed the usual 2 from each team pattern. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 "No goalscorer" the winning pick in that game, a stark reminder that even the best bets can lose. (I believe this was probably the best value bet in this thread so far but, as ever, the worst thing that can happen is the worst thing that can happen.) Hopefully I can turn this round but I'll set a "stop loss" of 200 points for the thread. If the loss hits that mark I'll call it quits and scurry off into the corner. 268.5 points risked and 174 returned, -94.5 points with an ROI of -35.2%. 4 winners from 14 bets. Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted November 26, 2017 Author Share Posted November 26, 2017 Hamburg v Hoffenheim: Buy Uth's goal minutes for 1 point at 13 with SX He's the shortest priced player in the fixed odds anytime market but the spread firms have him behind Wagner and Gnabry on his own team Wood and Fiete-Arp for the opposition. 9 goals in 13 starts this season, I'm not sure I'd price him at around the equivalent of 10/3 anytime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 3, 2017 Author Share Posted December 3, 2017 Last bet lost, updated figures as follows. 281.5 points risked and 174 returned, -107.5 points with an ROI of -38.19%. 4 winners from 15 bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry_rag Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Celtic v Anderlecht: Buy Sinclair's goal minutes for 1 point at 17 with SX Pitches him as around a 5/2 anytime shot which seems generous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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