Cheltenham Wednesday - 15th March 2017

[Sir Puntalot]

Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival

Latest Odds for the big race of the day - Queen Mother Champion Chase

 

https://www.punterslounge.com/cheltenham-festival/queen-mother-champion-chase-odds

 

 

[BillyHills]

Race Schedule for Cheltenham 2017 

 

Wednesday 16th March
 

Time	Race	Distance	Type
1.30	Neptune Investment Hurdle	2m 5f	Hurdle
2.10	RSA Chase	3m 1/2f	Chase
2.50	Coral Cup	2m 5f	Hurdle
3.30	Queen Mother Champion Chase	2m	Chase
4.10	Cross Country Chase	3m 6f	Chase
4.50	>Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle	2m 1/2f	Hurdle
5.30	Weatherbys Champion Bumper	2m 1/2f	NH Flat

 

[BillyHills]

Neptune Investment Hurdle

 

[BillyHills]

RSA Chase

 

[BillyHills]

Queen Mother Champion Chase

 

[BillyHills]

Cross Country Chase

 

[BillyHills]

Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle

 

[BillyHills]

Champion Bumper

 

[BillyHills]

Latest;

Queen Mother Champion Chase

Out: Sprinter Sacre (Retired), Simonsig (Fatally Injured)

In: Fox Norton (7/1 Skybet)

Fox Norton's win at Cheltenham on Sunday provided a bit of good news for the Champion Chase as at one stage it looked as though it was falling apart and leaving the way clear for Douvan.

Reigning champ Sprinter Sacre has been retired through injury and then stable mate Simonsig broke a leg to add the woes of the Henderson yard. Fox Norton who has just been bought by Alan Potts to be trained at the Tizzards was very impressive on winning the Shloer Chase. He looks likely to go for the Tingle Creek next where he may bump into Douvan?

Special Taira was too revved up on his seasonal debut and he looks sure to a better horse in the spring, he's out to 33/1 with Boylesports.

 

 

[gilbis]

Take Douvan now, cant see it being beat

 

[arsenalfh]

7 hours ago, gilbis said:

Take Douvan now, cant see it being beat

 

Price now may look good on the day but trying to predict Mullins and where he is going to place his runners is near on impossible. They're talking of Douvan possibly for the Gold Cup now that Vautour is out of the equation. Save your cash for when he's declared and you never know what mad price the bookies will offer on the day as they compete for business at the festival.

[WinningAdvice]

I don't have any luck when it comes to horse betting. Any tips?

[arsenalfh]

4 hours ago, WinningAdvice said:

I don't have any luck when it comes to horse betting. Any tips?

Betting is a long term game. You can't win all the time. Understand the concept of value.

Then know all the horse racing basics such as ground, distance, race type and understand how they effect different horses. A lot of my betting is based on trainer angles. Know what trainers improve horses going chasing, what trainers do well in handicaps and so on. You can do the same with jockeys.

There are some great podcasts on betting such as the Final Furlong Podcast with talk on horse racing and how to bet too. Read columns by Tony Calvin, Paul Kealy, Simon Rowlands, Kevin Blake, Tony Keenan and Rory Delargy as those guys know their stuff and you can learn a lot from them.

And of course there are plenty of good judges on here too so don't be afraid to ask questions. 

Edited November 19, 2016 by arsenalfh

[WinningAdvice]

Thank you, mate. I'm really trying to understand horse betting more. Trying to learn the how to choose the right horses and jockeys. Hopefully in time, I'd get it.

[BillyHills]

After Un De Sceaux's victory in the Tingle Creek bookies mostly shortened him a little bit for the Champion Chase.

Sire De Grugy is as big as 25/1 and Ar Mad a big looking 33/1 although they are talking about going further with him so maybe going down the Ryanair route?

 

 

[BillyHills]

Douvan made his seasonal debut at Cork on Sunday and won by a mile, he looked superb apart from a couple of sketchy jumps but that was just him getting lonely out in front i reckon.

He's now anything between 4/7 and 4/9 for the Queen Mother and i cant see any real dangers, can you?

Connections stressed he will not run on Boxing Day at Kempton although still entered in the King George.

 

[BillyHills]

Champion Chase 

Previous winners Sire De Grugy and Special Tiara look to have the Desert Orchid Chase to themselves on Tuesday. Normally a decent trial for the Queen Mother Champion Chase and indeed Sprinter Sacre won it last year before his Festival victory in March.

I'm not sure either result will change the betting that much although a couple of points will be clipped i suppose. Both are available at 25/1 for Cheltenham so if you fancy one of them for a place in the big race then it may be wise to step in now.

On the same day Leopardstown have a similar race and the Mullins trio of Douvan, Black Hercules and Un De Sceaux are all entered. Douvan is thought to be the intended runner but i've long since given up trying to out-guess Willie Mullins.

 

 

[BillyHills]

Neptune Hurdle

Finnians Oscar was cut to 5/1 favourite with most firms for the Neptune after easily winning the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday.

It was only is second run over hurdles and trainer Colin Tizzard said;

Quote

 

 "He's a beautiful young horse, but we didn't know he was going to do that.

"He's only won a point to point and a novices' hurdle at Hereford, but the way he did it at Hereford, why waste him in a little race when you can have a go at this?

"He justified it (the decision to run) and handled the ground well.

"He looked in control most of the way and he soon went five lengths clear.

"He stuttered into the last and I thought 'is he going to stop', but as soon as Tom got busy, he went on again.

"I would have been disappointed if he didn't win at Hereford but coming here today was completely different as it was a proper race back over two miles.

"He probably will run again and then go for one of the races at Cheltenham.

"He could go any trip, I think the easiest option is to go two and a half, but he's got the speed for two and he stays."

 

The second favourite Death Duty runs today at Navan.

 

[BillyHills]

Champion Chase Contenders

Douvan (4-9) the Grade 2 BoyleSports Tied Cottage at Punchestown on February 5 has been suggested for putting the finishing touches to the festival's shortest-priced favourite.

Fox Norton (8-1) has been recovering from a nasty cut sustained when running away with the Shloer Chase in November and he will have his festival prep run Newbury on February 11 for the Grade 2 Betfair Exchange Game Spirit Chase.

Altior (8-1) trainer Nicky Henderson is taking the same route from Kempton to Cheltenham as he took with Sprinter Sacre the year he won the Arkle and taking on Fox Norton in the Game Spirit.

Un De Sceaux (14-1) is the 5-6 favourite for Saturday's Grade 1 Berkshire Community Foundation Clarence House Chase, a race he won last year by five lengths.

Source: Racing Post

 

NRNB - Bet365

 

[cannastar]

the game changer. unbelievably overpriced and overlooked in a race that will certainly cut up and he should have his preferred ground.othered fancied runners will surley try to avoid douvan so given chances of small field and next to no other options at festival this horse looks sure to turn up and given favoured time of year and ground it surely represents taking a chance at 100/1 or more realistacly 20/1 a place.weakened on Cheltenham hill  when tried to match strides with douvan  in arkle .if ridden for a place must have a great chance of achieving it on all known form.sizing john who has form to tie in with the game changer won tday 18 jan 2017 in the Kinloch brae.

[cannastar]

unimaginative choice but Bellshill really impressed me over the festive season.dissagreed with analysis of two mistakes,i thought he only made one and jockey error was to blame for second.think this will be my banker of festival. rsa chase

Edited January 19, 2017 by cannastar

[Jimmy2shoes]

Very much a race i love and can at times unveil a potential future Star or two.

Still not declared so hold your fire OR find a bookmaker that's promoting NRNB

It's again no surprise the head of the market in this Champion bumper is trained by a certain Mr William Mullins but let me point out a few things before you steam in.

Carter McKay did beat the selection when they dueled at Leopardstown back on the 28th December and the two drew clear 6L clear from the third home, BUT that was the selections debut and the gelding wasn't given a tough introduction by Katie Walsh ''trained then by Peter Fahey''

He was then sent to trainer Alan Fleming's yard and they sent him racing again on 22nd Jan and back to Leopardstown but this time Jockey Stephen Clements got the ride, Stephen knew EXACTLY what he had that day and was Ice Cool on the 5yr old and Won by 5 or 6L without really asking any questions.

One of the things i did really like about the horse is his size, he's small but it was very obvious on the eye he has got lots of TRUE heart, he runs and looks very honest and that's something I've always liked, a true action.

Carter McKay for the Champion Bumper is 7/2 at best & 11/4 at Worst 

Bakmaj is 16/1 at Worst & lots of 25/1 still around so it's a NO BRAINER taking into account when they last met they were 1st & 2nd home.

 

Wednesday 15th March

Champion Bumper - Bakmaj 

End post by myself back on 22nd January

https://forum.punterslounge.com/topic/159328-racing-chat-sunday/

http://www.skysports.com/racing/results/full-result/759532/leopardstown/22-01-2017/join-the-coral-bet-get-club-at-coral-ie-flat-race

Edited March 3, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes

[Jimmy2shoes]

Alan Fleming aiming Borderline Chatho and Bakmaj at Cheltenham Bumper

Sunday 5 February 2017

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Trainer Alan Fleming could fire a twin assault at this year's Champion Bumper with both Borderline Chatho and Bakmaj in line for the Cheltenham Festival prize.

Having finished runner-up on his racecourse debut at Leopardstown over the festive period for Peter Fahey, Bakmaj was snapped up by leading owner Barry Connell and provided an immediate return on that investment with an impressive success on his debut for Fleming back at Leopardstown last month.

Borderline Chatho, who finished third to top-class bumper horse Bacardys last season, made a winning return from over a year off at Naas and Fleming holds both in high regard.

He said: "Borderline (Chatho)was very impressive the other day and has come out of the race well.

"He'd been off the track for a while, but he hasn't really had an issue. He ran in Leopardstown as a four-year-old and ran very well considering the way the race was run didn't suit him. We were then planning to bring him back around March time, but he picked up a little cold and by the time he came right the ground had gone too fast so we let him out for the summer.

"We hoped to have him ready for the autumn, but the horses weren't right at the time and we've just had to bide our time.

"We'll make a plan for him in the next week to 10 days, but I've no doubt he'll improve from Naas and Cheltenham is something we'd be looking at.

"He has all the ability in the world and having the year off might have been a blessing in disguise as you wouldn't believe how much he's grown."

Of Bakmaj, the Curragh-based trainer added: "He was bought specifically with the Champion Bumper in mind, so that's the plan for him.

"He had a very good first run for Peter Fahey, Barry was impressed and decided to buy him.

"I'm glad he did as he looks a very nice horse and we're looking forward to Cheltenham with him.

"It would be very exciting to have the two of them there. Fingers crossed we can keep them both safe and sound."

Fleming confirmed that Connell's retained rider Denis O'Regan will have the choice if both do line up at Prestbury Park in March.

Amateur rider Stephen Clements, who has steered both to victory, is in line to partner whichever horse O'Regan passes over.

Edited March 3, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes

[Jimmy2shoes]

[BillyHills]

3 early ones for Wednesday

 

[BillyHills]

2.50: Coral Cup

 Tombstone 5/1 Skybet

One of the toughest races for punters at the Festival over the last ten years. This time round we have a fancied runner in Tombstone who deserves plenty of respect being from the Gordon Elliott yard who has won this race twice. The 7yo was 4^th to Altior last season in the Supreme and has done little wrong since which makes his mark of 149 look very lenient indeed. Last time out he beat Jezki without much fuss and must go close on his handicap debut.

Stable mate Automated is also worth putting on the shortlist, he won at Navan in December and has been kept quiet for a tilt at this prize.

 

4.10: Cross Country

Cantlow 11/4 PP 

Owner JP McManus has a great record in Cross Country races whether it be here at Cheltenham or at home in Ireland. He has a couple of leading fancies this year with Cantlow and Cause Of Causes and on the bare figures you would have to take Cantlow to come out on top. Trained by Enda Bolger who has won this race five times the 12yo was a creditable second here in January giving plenty of weight away to the French runner Urgent De Gregaine. On level terms he should get his revenge and will be very hard to beat.

 

4.50: Fred Winter

Divin Bere 6/1 Skybet

 

Nicky Henderson last won the Fred Winter back in 2012 with Une Artiste and has a very good chance of taking it gain with Divin Bere who has only had the one run since coming over from France. Last years winner Diego du Charmil came via the same route and actually won without a prep race so the lack of experience is not a worry.

On his British debut he got the better of Master Blueyes who has gone on and franked the form by winning the Adonis at Kempton and is now rated 150 which makes Divin Bere’s mark of 139 look very attractive.

 

5.30: Champion Bumper

 Western Ryder 7/1 Coral

At one time the Festival Bumper was all about Willie Mullins, he has won it 8 times and also had several placed horses. He hasn’t won it now since 2013 but has a big fancy in Carter McKay who is very highly regarded. The home side have took the last two renewals however so maybe the tide is turning and my vote goes to Western Ryder who was second last time out behind the useful Daphne Du Clos who incidentally misses the race through injury. That was a very good contest and prior to that the Warren Greatrex 5yo had won well at Ascot.

Of the rest Cause Toujours and Someday both bring last time out winning form to the table and look sure to run well.

[robertob]

1.30: Neptune Novices’ Hurdle 

Neon Wolf could be the real deal. There weren’t many more impressive novices this season. However he’s by no means a banker. Given his relative inexperience and rawness I’m happy to let him run without my money.

Plenty others are interesting – though most of them are unlikely to run. That makes this race hard to evaluate.

If she runs, then Let’s Dance is my pick. With a handy weight allowance, strong form and experience, she ticks plenty of the right boxes for me. I love her improvement this season and particularly her last Grade 2 success at Leopardstown.

She is versatile, ground independent and has already won over 2m 4f – the right traits for a big performance.  With NRNB I select her – if she does not run I watch the race in the hope of a big performance by Neon Wolf.

Selection:
10pts Win – Let’s Dance @ 7/1 VC (NRNB)

……..

2.10: RSA Novices’ Chase

With plenty of talented horses likely to pull out before Wednesday, the RSA could be left with a slightly lukewarm lineup. That doesn’t mean it won’t be an intriguing contest, but it certainly does not shape as one of the stronger renewals.

Favourite Might Bight has been on the drift for a while and there is the question whether Cheltenham is his track. We’ll find out soon. His Kempton performance (until the fall) was huge, so one should not underestimate him and his price goes in a direction where it becomes tempting.

Alpha Des Obeaux’s bleeding issues when last seen put me off, whereas I feel Royal Vacation is a very decent each-way shout here. But the one I’m most excited about is recent 32 lengths Navan winner Acapella Bourgeois.

Yes, you can argue he got it easy in front that day, the other jockeys were caught napping and the heavy ground had a role to play too. But the way he jumped, the way he pricked ears while jumping the final fence clear by a mile, still only in second gear – you got to be impressed with this still generally lightly raced seven year old.

The faster ground is a question mark, though he was a Grade 2 winner over hurdles on yielding ground. I feel he’s the right type for this race, one who’ll be suited to Cheltenham and its demands, one who won’t go away when it starts to hurt and one who’ll be able to pull out more when the others stop.

Selection:
10pts Win – Acapella Bourgeois @ 7/1 Skybet

……..

2.50: Coral Cup

Another of those races where you can’t be certain at all who’s going to line up on Wednesday afternoon. Though fairly certain is the start of Peregrine Run.

A really nice progressive sort who was denied a five-timer back in January at Warwick probably by unsuited soft ground. With decent ground looming and course and distance form in the book, this race should suit down to the grounds with a fair handicap mark to leverage.

Dan Skelton’s Mister Miyagi is another one i do like quite a bit. Finished sixth behind Altior in last years Supreme, not far behind Tombstone, who incidentally is favourite for the Coral.

Things did not go right for MM afterwards, he needed a wind op suffering from the same issues Cue Card did before his legendary revival. Skelton feels he’s a big runner and he’s probably right: if the wind op helped to solve the underlying issue then he’s got a huge chance to to be in the shake-up in this compressed handicap.

Highly speculative my third selection: Bleu Et Rouge goes back hurdling. He never seemed happy over fences, his jumping letting him down badly, though his debut run was quite promising, actually.

The smaller obstacles (either here or in the county hurdle) will be a big help nonetheless, he was a Grade 1 winning novice who could easily be well handicapped if the spark is back. With NRNB insurance, it’s worth a risk at a value price in case he lines up in the Coral.

Selection:
5pts win – Peregrine Run @ 10/1 Bet365
5pts win – Bleu Et Rouge @ 16/1 Bet365
5pts win – Mister Miyagi @ 20/1 Skybet

……..

3.30: Queen Mother Champion Chase

An empty netter from five yards out for Douvan this is, he won’t be beaten. So I focus more on what’s finishing behind him in second and third. Fox Norton, God’s Own and Special Tiara is the trio most likely to fill places left on the podium – all three rated within a pound, in and around with the same sort of chance.

Though the betting does not reflect this. That says I get why the not fully exposed seven year old Fox Norton is slightly better fancied, nonetheless I think 16/1 for Special Tiara with 1/4 of the odds looks big in comparison.

The win part of the bet hinges on luck or misfortune of Douvan, but the place part looks to have a better chance than the odds suggest in my mind. He mightn’t be quite as good as he used to be, but fact remains that he finished 3rd in the Champion Chase last year and won this season the one time he encountered the ground he needs.

with decent ground likely here on Wednesday, Special Tiara should prove hard to pass for most rivals in this race, bar the near unbeatable favourite.

Selection: 
5pts E/W – Special Tiara @ 16/1 Bet365

……

4.10: Cross-Country Chase

Any Currency won this race last year but lost it in the courtroom afterwards. Nonetheless he is a Cheltenham specialist and even more specialist for this specific race. He seems to find his form again and should be ripped in order to put up a huge performance once more.

Now 14 years of age, there will come a point where younger legs do get the better of him him but the Cross Country is a race for specialists. A specialist Any Currency is and therefore it looks near impossible to keep this guy out of the money.

Selection: 
5pts E/W – Any Currency @ 14/1 PP

…….

4.50: Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

A big field and one where you wouldn’t like to be on a short price but the word is out that Divin Bere is the one to beat and well fancied by the stable. He could have gone down the Triumph route but he’s here in a handicap off a reasonable mark.

In fact it’s probably closer to the truth that the Henderson inmate is well handicapped taken his sole run in Britain into account.

He is a French recruit who made a big impression on his UK debut at Huntingdon with form that works out incredibly well through the runner-up. Connections didn’t leave a stone untouched it seems as Divin Bere also got a wind op since then.

Selection: 
10pts win – Divin Bere @ 6/1 Skybet

……

5.30: Champion Bumper

Exciting favourite Carter Mckay might be too good but at bigger prices I fancy two other Irish horses to outrun their price tag: that is Robbie McNamara’s Quick Grabim. A visually super impressive winner of a bumper at the Leopardstown Christmas festival, he was disappointing the next time at Exter but probably had excuses that day.

Better ground should suit and it’s telling that Noel Fehily was extremely keen to get the leg up on this boy.

Davy Russell will ride Joseph O’Brien’s interesting West Coast Time. Impressive on debut, he was hampered in the mud when runner-up – yet convincingly beaten  – behind Carter Kckay. Drop back to two miles on decent ground could easily bring out further improvement though.

Selection: 
5pts win – Quick Grabim @ 25/1 WH
5pts win – West Coast Time @ 16/1 Skybet

[Jimmy2shoes]

Some truly stunning write up's 

[richard-westwood]

Coral cup

Peregrine run   99.13

Automated    99.11

Tombstone  99.07 

Typically open race but there seems some huge value in the top two here ...both have the level of form required to win this ...both are nicely treated  especially peregrine run who could potentially be a blot off 142 because that seems quite lenient on the balance of his form ....prices11/1 and 14/1 just seem excellent value 

Peregrine run 10pts win 11/1 pp

Automated 10pts win 14/1 pp

 

 

[richard-westwood]

Rsa chase

Royal vacation  99.01 

Might bite   98,97 

Royal vacation just looks vastly overpriced here to me ...might bite could be anything but his overall form is way behind royal vacations proven form so is based on potential but I'd prefer to stick with proven so the 12/1 on royal vacation looks outstanding ....

Royal vacation 10pts ew 12/1 pp