Racing Chat - Sunday

[BillyHills]

Fontwell doubtful due to Frost.

 

[beaker1]

2.40 Leopardstown – Coral.ie Leopardstown Handicap Chase.

 

This 2m5f handicap chase has been won by some smart performers in the past and the weights are headed by Clarcam. Gordon Elliott’s seven-year-old had some smart form in his younger days but he dropped away tamely last time at Tramore behind Champagne West. He also failed to fire in his last start in a handicap chase back in September and although Lisa O’Neill takes a valuable 7lb off his back, he looks to have a pretty tough task on his hand.

 

Gordon Elliott has no less than seven horses at his disposal and his leading hope looks to be A Toi Phil who has already made a fine start to his chasing career. The seven-year-old made a winning debut over the larger obstacles in November and followed up soon after in a Grade 2 at Punchestown. He has since run twice in Grade 1 company but hasn’t cut much ice so he drops back into handicap company here. Jack Kennedy is enjoying a fine season at present and gets the leg up here and he has to be hopeful that he won’t be too far away.

 

Another dropping down from Grade 1 company is Vukovar who has his first start for the Elliott team on Sunday. Formerly trained by Harry Fry and Warren Greatrex in Britain, the eight-year-old hasn’t run since being pulled up in the Betfred Bowl in 2015. His form suggests that this sort of trip is probably his optimum and he should handle the soft ground underfoot. Clearly the absence is a concern but Davy Russell has been booked to ride and if he is ready to fire on his return, he could outrun his sizeable odds.

 

The final one of the Elliott battalions that I wanted to mention was Space Cadet who ran well in handicap company at Punchestown in December, finishing second to Kansas City Chief. He made the odd error on the way round but didn’t seem to see out the trip as well as the winner on that occasion. He won over as short as 2m at Roscommon in October so it is no surprise to see him dropping back in trip and he also warrants plenty of respect with Johnny Burke aboard.

 

It isn’t very often that a horse trained by Willie Mullins and ridden by Ruby Walsh is available at a double-figure price but that applies to Rolly Baby who they team up with here. The twelve-year-old hasn’t had very much racing and was successful on his penultimate start at Perth in April. That handicap success came off a mark of 134 and he races off just 1lb lower in this contest. He tried 3m last time and having been prominent for much of the race he faded away late on but this shorter trip should be more suitable and he could improve a bit with that run under his belt.

 

There are only two last time out winners in the field, the first of those being Sandra Hughes’ Total Recall who got off the mark at the fourth time of asking over fences last time. The eight-year-old had run behind some useful performers on his previous starts including Alpha Des Obeaux and Anibale Fly and won with plenty in hand at Navan. He has managed to sneak in here towards the bottom of the weights and he looks interesting on his first start in handicaps.

 

Jim Culloty’s Late Takapuna will also be high on many shortlists having won a valuable handicap at Leopardstown on Boxing Day. The six-year-old was prominent throughout and found plenty for pressure to hit the front in the closing stages. The way he finished his race off that day over 2m1f suggests that the step up in trip will suit although the 5lb rise in the weights is also likely to make life more difficult.

 

However, the one I like the look of is STELLAR NOTION who won on his first start for Henry De Bromhead at Listowel in the summer. He ran with plenty of credit when second to Tiger Roll in the Munster National in October and once again when fourth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. On the second of those occasions, he seemed to relish being out in front but paid for those exertions in the closing stages. That was over 3m however and now dropping back in trip, he could make a bold bid from the front once again. Despite being towards the head of the weights, he only has 10st 9lb on his back and I think he has a strong each-way chance at around the 8/1 mark.

Advice

STELLAR NOTION – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Boylesports) (4 places)

 

 
3.10 Leopardstown – The coral.ie Hurdle (Grade B)

 

As always, this promises to be one of the most competitive handicaps in the Irish racing calendar although current favourite Heartbreak City has stolen most of the headlines in the lead up to the race. Tony Martin’s charge was last seen finishing a head second in the Melbourne Cup and had notched up a cross-code hat-trick prior to that when hosing up in the Ebor Handicap at York. Even with his form on the level not being a factor, the fact that he is only 7lb higher than when landing a handicap at the Galway Festival (despite suffering interference) means that he looks to be on a very handy mark. Running off 10st (with Donagh Meyler’s 3lb claim taken into account) makes him a very attractive proposition but to side with one so short in a race as competitive as this clearly come with risks attached.

 

Martin has a few other solid chances in this year’s race, headed by recent Ascot fourth Golden Spear. The six-year-old is a fair performer on the level and remains relatively lightly-raced in the National Hunt sphere. He was punted off the boards prior to his run in the Grade 3 Wessex Youth Trust (Formerly the Ladbroke) Handicap Hurdle last time but could only manage a well beaten fourth, never really managing a telling blow. He did stay on well into the frame though and can likely do the same again.

 

Tudor City is another Martin runner in a purple patch of form for all that he probably should have won the race when second at Leopardstown last time. He travelled like the winner for the majority of the contest and looked as though he was going to land an overdue first hurdles win when joining the eventual winner at the last. However, he looked a tad reluctant to go on and has now finished runner-up on each of his last three completed starts over the sticks. Cheekpieces have now been reached for and they could just focus his attentions to the job in hand and eke out the required improvement to play a part.

Rounding off the Martin quartet is JP McManus’ Gladiator King who hasn’t managed to get his head in front for nearly two years. He did however shape much better when fifth at Leopardstown last time but looks to have his work cut out to turn the tables with the re-opposing That’s A Wrap, who looks to be the first string on jockey bookings with Barry Geraghty in the plate.

 

The six-year-old goes in search of a four-timer here but has been hit with a 7lb hike in the weights by the handicapper and now finds him on a 27lb higher mark than when beginning his winning sequence. Nevertheless, he is clearly on a steep upward curve and the assessor may not quite got to the bottom of him just yet. He should have enough left in the locker to confirm placings with runner-up Veinard. Who has since been well beaten in a Cork novice hurdle, and the third-placed After Rain, who was well beaten in this twelve months ago when sent off favourite off a 2lb lower mark.

 

It’s fairly standard fair for JP McManus to be mob-handed in these kind of races so it should come as no surprise that he has won two of the last three renewals. That’s A Wrap, After Rain and Gladiator King are his most likely chances of a winner but Henry Higgins wasn’t the most obvious candidate in last year’s renewal and the green and gold juggernaut has another pair of live outsiders to consider. Sir Scorpion is another to have lined up twelve months ago and while he was well down the field on that occasion, he has proven a much better animal so far this campaign. Reported by connections to have summered well, the eight-year-old ran a fine race in defeat at Listowel before landing a competitive Naas handicap in decent fashion in November. He looked beat when brought down at the last in the Grade A Bar One Racing Handicap Hurdle at Fairyhouse last time but would almost certainly have finished in the first three so must be considered having been freshened up after a short break.

 

De Name Escapes Me completes the quintet and is one of the least exposed runners in the field. He looked an exciting prospect when bagging a maiden and novice hurdle in the early part of last season but had a few niggling issues and wasn’t seen again until the Punchestown Festival when he finished tenth in the Grade B Coral Handicap Hurdle. The fact that he doesn’t stand much racing has to be a concern in a race of this nature and Noel Meade may just have more pressing claims with his other runner in the field Ice Cold Soul.

 

Somewhat surprisingly, he is the sole Gigginstown runner in the field but he is well related being a full-brother to Outlander and has significant upside on only his second start of the season. He was well beaten on his return but he was entitled to need that having been off the track for a year and if recapturing the form that saw him land a Leopardstown handicap hurdle on Boxing Day 2015, he could well surprise a few at a big price.

 

Seldom do you see Willie Mullins’ runners as outsiders, especially in a race where he has enjoyed success in the past (two wins in the last six years), but that is what we have here with his quartet all trading at 20/1 or bigger. Allblak des Places looks to be the first string on jockey bookings with Ruby Walsh in the saddle but he does have to bounce back from a pretty disappointing display on his comeback run at Limerick on Boxing Day. He was beaten a fair way out on that occasion and his jumping suffered late on so it is no surprise to see him revert back to two miles now. A tongue-tie has now been reached for suggesting that breathing may be an issue and he is possibly best watched at present.

 

Mullins’ pair of Rich Ricci runners are both making their handicap debuts but look to have questions to answer. There’s no doubt that Thomas Hobson is a classy animal having landed the Grade 2 Leamington Novices’ Hurdle at Warwick a year ago and he was last seen finishing a most respectable third to Jer’s Girl in a Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival. However, the drop back to two miles wouldn’t strike as an obvious decision given he clearly stays pretty well (on both the level and over hurdles), and this may just be used to blow away a few cobwebs.

 

Cap d’Aubois is very much an unknown quantity having had just the three runs over hurdles, and only two in Ireland. He was thrown into the deep end on stable debut in the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival and was unsurprisingly beaten into last before being set another tough task when second to Missy Tata in a Listed contest at Limerick last time out. An opening mark of 140 looks pretty harsh in my eyes for all that he may well have his best days ahead of him.

 

Conversely, the final runner of Mullins’ quartet could well be a bit ahead of the assessor and looks a decent each-way bet. NOBLE INN has been fairly lightly-raced in the last couple of years so it is encouraging that he is out again quickly on the back of his pipe-opener at Leopardstown over Christmas. A line can be struck through that run as it always just looked like a run out over a trip half a mile further than he had ever raced before. Back in 2015, he was considered a live outsider off 8lb higher in the Ladbroke Hurdle, where a mistake three out put paid to his chances, so a current mark of 133 looks to give him a real chance here.

 

Of the remainder, Hidden Cyclone is a very likeable type who very rarely runs a bad race. He looks up against it here carrying 11st 10lbconceding weight all round, especially given no horse with more than 11st on its back has won the race in the last ten years, but did finish third to Irving in the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth at Newcastle back in November and certainly has an outside chance of making the frame.

 

 

Advice

NOBLE INN – 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Boylesports) (5 places)

 

 

  
3.40 Leopardstown – The “Bet & Watch” Irish Racing Live at coral.ie Handicap Hurdle.

 

A fair looking handicap here but one in which Gigginstown look to hold all the aces with a pair of unexposed improvers. Sutton Manor has been consistent rather than spectacular in his career so far but showed signs of paying back his £125,000 price tag when shedding his maiden tag at Wexford in November. I was a tad disappointed with his handicap debut next time when he could only manage a fairly well beaten third so he does have a bit to prove here off the same mark but he has reportedly taken a while to get the hang of things and could well benefit greatly from that experience. He may have just got a bit tired late on on that his first stab at 3m under Rules but he certainly didn’t look like a non-stayer when second to Oldgrangewood on his only start in points (form that has worked out very well with six of the field since scoring in either points or under Rules) and a bold bid is expected here.

 

However, preference is for BRIGHTEST FLAME on the back of his dominant display in a maiden hurdle at Tramore on New Year’s Day. He is another who has taken time to hit top gear but having been well supported on just his third hurdles start, he put the race to bed two out and sluiced up by twenty lengths. The six-year-old hails from a family that connections know very well as a brother to Grade 2 chase winner Wounded Warrior and Grade 3 hurdles winner Sword of Destiny and this big strapping gelding looks sure to improve for the step up in trip here. Blinkers seemed to really focus him last time and with the same headgear employed again, he looks the one to beat.

 

Woodford Island will likely pose the biggest threat to the Gigginstown duo having shaped encouragingly in fourth on his return from a spell chasing in an ultra-competitive Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown last time. He enjoyed a mixed bag over fences but has essentially remained in good form since the autumn and given his showing in a hotter heat on his latest start, he must be considered here, especially with the red-hot Jack Kennedy in the plate.

 

Of the remainder, any significant market support for Mydor must be taken seriously given his connections and the eye-catching jockey booking of Davy Russell. The seven-year-old hasn’t been in the best of form of late but is the only course and distance winner in the field having landed this very contest two years ago.

 

Another with a bit to prove at present is Apache Jack who hasn’t kicked on at all from his novice hurdling days three years ago. Sandra Hughes’ charge has been in the doldrums for the best part of two years in both codes but has at least had a bit a reprieve from the assessor. The step back up to three miles should be in his favour.

 

One that does catch the eye is Diamond Cauchois on only his fourth start in Ireland. He finished well clear of Sutton Manor at Fairyhouse last time but couldn’t quite get his head in front as he went down to Shannak. The six-year-old doesn’t have the aid of Andrew Ring’s 5lb claim and has been upped 4lb by the handicapper but Ruby Walsh’s services have been acquired for the ride which could suggest a great deal even on 9lb worse terms.

 

Advice

 

BRIGHTEST FLAME – 1pt win

[Trotter]

Just looking at the 2.30 at Fontwell tomorrow - a class 5 handicap chase

We have Hinton Indiana running off a mark of 96 .......his 3 handicap wins have come off 80, 84 and 91

But looking at the Quotes in the Racing Post I see that after he won a novice hurdle in 2011 Nicky Henderson was quoted as saying that he's a big chasing type who could be a Gold Cup horse in time.

think it's fair to say he's been a disappointment.........moreover all his best form has been on good or good to firm and he's only had one outing in a Point (pulled up) in almost 2 years. And he's the second favourite with all the horses at longer odds being well out of form, it's a very poor race

The favourite is not one to trust having failed to win in 14 attempts under rules but he does drop in class having finished 2nd last time out, finishing well to be beaten under a length in a class 4. He's won on Soft and acts on Heavy

short price favourite but looks a good thing..........

Font 2.30 - Shannan Star - win at 6/5 bog wm hill

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

2 hours ago, Trotter said:

Just looking at the 2.30 at Fontwell tomorrow - a class 5 handicap chase

We have Hinton Indiana running off a mark of 96 .......his 3 handicap wins have come off 80, 84 and 91

But looking at the Quotes in the Racing Post I see that after he won a novice hurdle in 2011 Nicky Henderson was quoted as saying that he's a big chasing type who could be a Gold Cup horse in time.

think it's fair to say he's been a disappointment.........moreover all his best form has been on good or good to firm and he's only had one outing in a Point (pulled up) in almost 2 years. And he's the second favourite with all the horses at longer odds being well out of form, it's a very poor race

The favourite is not one to trust having failed to win in 14 attempts under rules but he does drop in class having finished 2nd last time out, finishing well to be beaten under a length in a class 4. He's won on Soft and acts on Heavy

short price favourite but looks a good thing..........

Font 2.30 - Shannan Star - win at 6/5 bog wm hill

 

Just shows how information can differ 

Sporting Life have no data on any Win ........14 runs Wins 0

Still a maiden under rules too on Oddschecker

Oddschecker Verdict

A poor contest but the preference has to be for SHANANN STAR, despite the fact that he remains a maiden under Rules

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/profiles/horse/598041/shanann-star

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by Jimmy2shoes

[Trotter]

apologies Jimmy if that was confusing........

I said he failed to win in 14 attempts 'under rules'............ his win on Soft was in a Point to Point which is listed in the Racing Post but not in the Sporting Life

In fact he won 3 point to points

 

[Jimmy2shoes]

13 hours ago, Trotter said:

apologies Jimmy if that was confusing........

I said he failed to win in 14 attempts 'under rules'............ his win on Soft was in a Point to Point which is listed in the Racing Post but not in the Sporting Life

In fact he won 3 point to points

 

No No fella all good, sporting Life can be poor at times with info so just wasn't sure if their data was correct 

Shame the meetings now not on.

[Trotter]

24 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

No No fella all good, sporting Life can be poor at times with info so just wasn't sure if their data was correct 

Shame the meetings now not on.

Ah well. ...............at least my selection can't lose now !

[Jimmy2shoes]

Great to see Stephen Clements back with a winner in the last at Leopardstown

You timed it perfect Sir 

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/results/22-01-2017/leopardstown/result/759532/join-the-coral-bet-get-club-at-coral-ie-pro-am-flat-race