liquidglass Posted May 19, 2016 Share Posted May 19, 2016 (edited) ZVEREV VS SOUSA On the face of things Zverev looks the most likely to progress based on current form and also the way he dug deep to get out of jail against Simon. However I have come to realize that it takes more than superficiality and impressionisms to arrive at the winner in an indulgence that gets more complex by the minute. I will go with my own little theory to prevail over every other theory that has been put forward - Zverev has more to gain from the French Open than Sousa. Winning one or two more games at the cost of an early exit, can not really be an appropriate plan going into next week and with barely two days to go. This has Sousa's name written all over it who is a total different proposition from the very passive Simon. I even still think Sousa wins without the already made excuses for Zverev. I will take Sousa to win comfortably . Good luck!! Edited May 19, 2016 by liquidglass four-leaf and janekda 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 (edited) Hi, yesterday I was quite lucky with Razzano. With catching odd 12 in 2nd set for Vesnina and then before 3rd I betted again on Razzano. But I had to say that refrees really pushed French woman and Vesnina wasn't so motivated before FO. Razzano - Garcia 3.20 Again on Razzano. Garcia has awful record on clay more than year. And she dislikes agressive players like Razzano (H2H is 0:1 for her). Only one factor is negative, different stats with fellow countrywoman. It's very positive for Garcia and very negative for Razzano. I think and hope it will not play role. Nishioka - Stepanek 3.25 Nishioka isn't so bad and old veteran Stepanek defeated big outsider yesterday 7:5 in 3rd set. I suppose also an over. Edited May 20, 2016 by janekda better word CzechPunter 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janekda Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Eh, Nishiaoka is maybe too young to play with Stepanek. The had different BP. N. was 0/4 and Step was 3/3. I hope you backed Razzano after 1st set or when she was serving to match. For me it was great match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 20, 2016 Author Share Posted May 20, 2016 Back Dominic Thiem (-3.5) to beat Alexander Zverev for a 7/10 stake at 1.95 with Unibet Can't see past Thiem here, I really can't - and chances are that it's going to be a fairly easy win as well. Zverev was tiring towards the end of his match with Sousa and Thiem is just crushing everyone here, so it's the games handicap line that I'm going to go for on Saturday. Also, it will be Zverev's first ATP final - and better players failed to deliver under such circumstances. Full preview here: http://punts.pl/mCe46I four-leaf and TheBeast 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 20, 2016 Share Posted May 20, 2016 Mariana Duque-Marino to beat Kiki Bertens @ 2.83 Marathonbet (1 pt) I'm not sure Bertens should be such a big favourite in this match. Duque-Marino has been upsetting the odds all week at this tournament and is very much at home on clay, and whilst you could argue Bertens has beaten better players to get to this final, Duque-Marino has beaten some in-form players during her run. The Colombian also beat Bertens in their only previous meeting last year, and although fatigue could play a part as Duque-Marino had to play two matches today, Bertens also might not be fresh having played the qualifying rounds here. CzechPunter and four-leaf 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torque Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Not sure if anyone can help with this but I've just totalled up the French Open outright market on Pinnacle and it looks as though the overround is about 20 percent. Can that be right? I thought it would be lower than that bearing in mind the low margins they apply to match markets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 That might be correct given that they are offering a limited selection of players, but I'm not willing to do the calculations . Torque 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Hey Czech I just wonder if it was worth backing Thiem -4.5 at evens on bet365? I only had money there so I went for it. It's a bigger risk but Thiem can cover that handicap since he did it in Munich in 3 sets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 21, 2016 Author Share Posted May 21, 2016 And he covered it again! The crucial difference between 3.5 and 4.5 is that the former can be covered with just a break in each set regardless of who's serving first, while the latter can't. It matters a lot, although on clay it's a slightly smaller factor, as players that run out of steam (like Zverev today) will get broken a lot. I reckon that he would've gotten at least a game in the decider if it was a hard court match. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
four-leaf Posted May 21, 2016 Share Posted May 21, 2016 Czech shall we create a new thread for RG soon? I got some bets I'd like to have your comments on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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