April 4 - April 10

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Thank god Miami is over, that was a dreadful tournament and I think that apologies are in order for everyone who's followed me - hoping for greener pastures going forward.

[CzechPunter]

Back Angelique Kerber to win WTA Charleston for a 5/10 stake at 5.50 with Bet365

Back Tatiana Maria to beat Kristina Mladenovic for a 7/10 stake at 3.25 with Bet365

Back Shuai Peng to beat Mirjana Lucic for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with BetVictor

Kerber seems to be back to some sort of a form and she's been handed a good draw as well, so I fancy her to go far and perhaps even win. For form and conditions reasons, I'm also backing Maria and Peng, who could both seriously trouble Mladenovic and Lucic.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/YzE4NDkx

[CzechPunter]

Back Jack Sock to win ATP Houston for a 3/10 stake at 8.00 with Bet365

Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Diego Sebastian Schwartzman for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365

Back Dmitry Tursunov to beat Lukas Lacko for a 7/10 stake at 1.50 with Paddy Power

Sock won Houston last year and he doesn't seem to have any issues right now, so I very much prefer him over Isner, who was injured in Miami. The fast conditions should help both Baghdatis and Tursunov in their respective matches, so I'll be taking those two guys from the first round offers.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/YzE4NDkw

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR ATP CASABLANCA:
ALMAGRO-ALBOT @ 1.25 on betfair
ALMAGRO-ALBOT 2:0 SETS @ 1.63 on pinnaclesports

Veteran Almagro is still a top clay court player, simply a level above Albot, who is a good left-handed player, but on clay Almagro should be too good

 

[ogii55]

Falconi - Lisicki 3.09 Pinnacle

 

Lisicki is in awful form since the start of the season. Falconi is just the best type of player to beat her with waiting for an opponent's error.

 

Melzer - Monaco 3.22 Pinnacle

 

Monaco's form is very doubtful. He wasn't impressive in Miami and IW. Not sure what is his current health condition. Meltzer already won two challengers on clay this season. He decided to rest and to prepare himself for the clay court season after Davis cup matches earlier this season. Melzer will be fresh and ready to prove himself on bigger level.

 

Lorenzi/Swarzman - Petzchner/Peya 3.42 Pinnacle

 

Lorenzi/Swartzman already beat a pair involved Peya this season. Both Paolo and Diego are in pretty decent form in 2016. Peya/Petzchner prefere faster surfaces. They never won a match on clay and it will be not easy against classic clay court fighters as Paolo and Diego!

 

Witthoeft - Cibulkova 3.93 Pinnacle

 

Carina is best on clay. She showed some promising form in Miami and probably will try to improve in European events. Cibulkova is still trying to find her best form. She never liked clay.

 

 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Tim Smyczek to beat Nicolas Kicker for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with BetVictor

Not sure why Smyczek has drifted to become the underdog here and I'm happy to take him at evens, as Kicker is yet to beat a player of Smyczek's class in this season. He won't be without his chances, but a favourite? I don't think so.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/XL9JD6

[CzechPunter]

ogii55: Katowice isn't a clay court event, it's actually one of the faster indoors tournaments. Hoping for a Witthoeft win nonetheless, but the reasoning doesn't make much sense.

[four-leaf]

Easy straight sets for Almagro having not dropped serve once and faced no break points. The usual stuff from Nico on clay in other words.

Edited April 5, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Kristyna Pliskova for a 8/10 stake at ?? with Paddypower

Jelena seems to be on the right track again having lost all three matches she played in March. It's going to be difficult probably but she can beat Kristyna Pliskova who knocked out Heather Watson and had a good Miami tournament. Feels like it's just a matter of time before Jelena wins her first title. She's studying at the same time as playing also. She travels home to Latvia to attend classes. Might take something from her ability to play consistently. Currently she's got one bad month in January and one good in February and then again a bad one so it's not impossible that she'll have a good April month. In Katowice she will now face Kristyna and after that it's likely to be Timea Babos and that potential matchup will be tough for Jelena. Grass seems to be her best surface judging from her Wimbledon title as a junior in 2014. But there's no doubt that this girl likes faster surfaces and she is coming strong challenging up the rankings.

(Just have to wait for the odds)

Edit: Forgot to mention that Jelena beat Daniela Hantuchova 6-1 6-1 dropping serve twice and breaking Daniela every time she was serving.

Edited April 5, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

Baghdatis is playing like it was hardcourt. He's having no issues at all and it's just the beginning of the match. He already looks like a winner.

Edit: Gonna be a double bagel soon if Diego Schwartzman does'nt do anything about his crappy way of serving. Plain awful by Diego. Marcos is allowed to do whatever he likes. For example he's allowed to use his dropshots like it was hardcourt.

Edit 2: And that's it, double bagel it was.

Edited April 5, 2016 by four-leaf

[four-leaf]

12 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Jelena Ostapenko to beat Kristyna Pliskova for a 8/10 stake at ?? with Paddypower

Jelena seems to be on the right track again having lost all three matches she played in March. It's going to be difficult probably but she can beat Kristyna Pliskova who knocked out Heather Watson and had a good Miami tournament. Feels like it's just a matter of time before Jelena wins her first title. She's studying at the same time as playing also. She travels home to Latvia to attend classes. Might take something from her ability to play consistently. Currently she's got one bad month in January and one good in February and then again a bad one so it's not impossible that she'll have a good April month. In Katowice she will now face Kristyna and after that it's likely to be Timea Babos and that potential matchup will be tough for Jelena. Grass seems to be her best surface judging from her Wimbledon title as a junior in 2014. But there's no doubt that this girl likes faster surfaces and she is coming strong challenging up the rankings.

(Just have to wait for the odds)

Edit: Forgot to mention that Jelena beat Daniela Hantuchova 6-1 6-1 dropping serve twice and breaking Daniela every time she was serving.

Jelena Ostapenko at 1.72 with Bet365

I skip Paddy for a little bit better price with the other bookie.

[CzechPunter]

Back John Isner (-3.5) to beat Denis Kudla for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Unibet

Back Hyeon Chung to beat Tommy Paul for a 7/10 stake at 1.75 with BetVictor

Fancy Isner to get the job done against Kudla quite easily, he likes the conditions, Kudla not so much by the looks of things. Chung should also be too strong for Paul based on what I know about the match he played against Estrella.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/MWqAA8

[WinningTipster]

2 PICKS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW:

ATP CASABLANCA VESELY-4GAMES OVER MEKTIC @ 1.63 on pinnaclesports
Vesely has not been at his best in 2016 but is still a much better player, especially on a slow clay court (probably the best surface for him, and worst for Mektic)

WTA CHARLESTON KASATKINA TO DEFEAT KONJUH @ 1.3 on pinnaclesports/willhill/1.31betfair
Konjuh has a good attacking baseline game but Kasatkina should be just too solid for her in this match
 

[Fader]

2.5pts L.Chirico to beat L.Safarova 2-0 16/5 Boylesports
I see this as a good value punt. Safarova has been awful recently and although she is now stepping onto her preferred surface, so is Chirico. Aside from that win over Kerber, Safarova has lost her last 8 matches and all in straight sets so evidently she isn't over the illness she has had since the French.

[four-leaf]

Stefanie Voegele (-1.5) to beat Magda Linette for a 8/10 stake at 1.96 with Pinnaclesports

I think Magda played so bad last match as she does'nt deserve to be here. She's in bad form no doubt as she was before this tournament and continues to be. She served for the match at 5-2 and 5-4 against unknown wild card teenager Shoshyna from Ukraine ranked 700+ but only managed to win in a second set tie-break although she is playing in her own country. Stefanie will have plenty of chances on Magdas serve since she is'nt serving or playing as if she would be ranked even as lowly as she is at 104. It happens that Magda get some good first serves in but she does'nt have any monster serve that will scare Stefanie. Moreover Stefanie is ranked 117 and easily strolled past Lesia Tsurenko ranked 46 6-4 6-0. Will be seriously surprised to see anything other then a comprehensive loss for Magda as it just feels like her struggles will continue.

[CzechPunter]

Back Donald Young (-2.5) to beat Tim Smyczek for a 7/10 stake at 1.83 with Paddy Power

Back Marcos Baghdatis to beat Fernando Verdasco for a 7/10 stake at 2.50 with Bet365

Hard not to fancy Baghdatis against Verdasco at such a price, he even has a 2-0 record against him and the surface isn't as "clay court" as Verdasco would've liked. Also like Young to beat Smyczek easily, the latter nearly lost against Kicker, while Young crushed Johnson in the first round.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/sYQUJQ

[Fader]

5pts A.Cornet to beat F.Schiavone 4/5 Skybet
2pts A.Cornet to win 2-0 2/1 Ladbrokes
Six wins out of six for Schiavone against Cornet on the hard, but nevertheless I'm going to take this as they haven't played for 3 years and Schiavone is 36 this year. Cornet won this event only 2 years ago beating the likes of Radwanska along the way and even last year she got to the Quarter-finals and beat some good players. Schiavone seems to be a bad match-up for Cornet however Schiavone has only participated in 2014 and went out in the second round so there is no real need to protect WTA points.

[ogii55]

De Greef - Krajnovic 2.82 Pinnacle

 

De Greef is close to beat his best ranks, but he also has to defend a lot of points since April 2015. The guy is a typical clay courter. Krajnovic also loves the red surface, but he is in very bad shape. He traveled from China, when he lost twice in first round and wasn't impressive in the first round against very weak opponent. The odds are great for the Belgian, who is knocking on Top 200 doors.

[ogii55]

Ninomiya - Jang 2.72 Pinnacle

 

H2H is 2:2, but Ninomiya took the last win in 2015 in two sets and also two of her wins are on hard. Both are pretty much in the same shape. In the previous round Ninomiya beat far stronger opponent. The chances are equal, but the rankings is making the difference here. Ninomiya also won a doubles event last month, so her confidence will be boosted.

 

Barton - Sock 6.2 Matchbook

 

Barton is playing great. In the qualifications he gave a total of two break point chances and never have been broken. He won his previous tournament, so now he has a great chance to beat the current champ. Sock is very good on clay, but currently is in awful form. The pressure will be on his shoulders. Great odds.

 

Gatto-Monticone vs Zanevska Pinnacle 2.85

 

Monticone is leading H2H with 2:0. She is in better form in clay this season. Pretty close match with far better odds for Italian.

 

 

 

 

 

[ogii55]

On 5.04.2016 г.,, CzechPunter said:

ogii55: Katowice isn't a clay court event, it's actually one of the faster indoors tournaments. Hoping for a Witthoeft win nonetheless, but the reasoning doesn't make much sense.

My Fault, I was looking at Charleston event during the time I was writing the preview and I saw later the mistake.

[ogii55]

1 hour ago, Fader said:

5pts A.Cornet to beat F.Schiavone 4/5 Skybet
2pts A.Cornet to win 2-0 2/1 Ladbrokes
Six wins out of six for Schiavone against Cornet on the hard, but nevertheless I'm going to take this as they haven't played for 3 years and Schiavone is 36 this year. Cornet won this event only 2 years ago beating the likes of Radwanska along the way and even last year she got to the Quarter-finals and beat some good players. Schiavone seems to be a bad match-up for Cornet however Schiavone has only participated in 2014 and went out in the second round so there is no real need to protect WTA points.

I watched the first match of Cornet in the tournament against Bulgarian Shinikova. The Frenchman has some problems with her breath and the doctors came up to measure her blood presure somewhere in the third set. Not sure if she is so health, but however she is the favorite here.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP HOUSTON:

ISNER-CHUNG OVER 21.5 GAMES @ 1.49 on pinnaclesports
Expect it to be a long match, and will not be an easy win for Isner vs. the very talented Chung.
 

[four-leaf]

Really thought I had found something good with Stefanie Voegele but it showed to be the opposite.

[ogii55]

Baghdatis - Sock 2.82 Pinnacle

 

Baghdatis continues to be impressive here. He beat Verdasco in a very nice style. The defending champ is still trying to find his best game. He started well against Barton, but almost lose the tiebreak in the second set. This one will be much closer.

 

Smyczeck - Lopez 3.95 Pinnacle

 

Lopez didn't show much of a form recently, while Smyczek is playing at his best. He did it pretty well in the first two round. H2H is for Lopez, but with this nice odds it's ok

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Back Juan Monaco to beat Sam Querrey for a 7/10 stake at 2.00 with Unibet

Happy for Baghdatis, but I can't be backing him today given that I still have the outright on Sock going. I can back Monaco, however, who shouldn't be an underdog against Querrey in my opinion. Not only is he not playing much worse than him right now, but he also has a 4-1 record against the American.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/sQvYaa

[CzechPunter]

Back Juan Monaco to beat Feliciano Lopez for a 7/10 stake at 2.10 with Bet365

Hoping for Sock and Kerber to win as well, but this is the only match bet that I'm going to go for today. Based on what I saw yesterday, Monaco should be in with a solid chance of beating Lopez.

Full preview here: http://punts.pl/4E0EdN

[four-leaf]

Federico Delbonis (-4.5) to beat Alberto Montanes for a 8/10 stake at 2.00 with Paddypower

Should be a quite easy match this one for Federico. He's beaten Alberto 3 times before in straight sets on outdoor red clay covering this handicap everytime and he's done it in 2013, 2014 and 2015. Alberto is in the semis just because he got some luck facing the right opponents and winning because of his experience taking him through in most situations. Three matches in straight sets by Alberto against players ranked outside top 100 is just what he needs but winning this one in straight sets is just out of the question and taking it to three sets is unlikely at his age against an opponent 10 years younger who is playing his best right now. Federico covered this handicap yesterday by beating Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 6-2 so I dare to say he can do it again. Last season Federico beat Alberto 7-5 6-1 a result quite similar to yesterdays win so a lot is speaking for this one to be a tight first set and an easy second set.

[ogii55]

Montanes - Delbonis 4,25 Matchbook

Montanes is a typical one tournament player and this is his tourney and he is playing great. Delbonis is very strrog on clay, but I am not sure if those are appropriate odds.  H2H is for Delbonis, but Albert is kno

wn for causing upset wins. Let's not forget that Montanes was 0:2 against Bagnis, but managed to beat him easy here.

Parmentier - Cibulkova 3.20 Pinnacle

Parmentier is playing great tennis. She is destroying her opponents. I think she will win the tournament. Cibulkova is not the best indoor player, despite the fact that she did it pretty well on the surface this season.

[four-leaf]

1 hour ago, ogii55 said:

Montanes - Delbonis 4,25 Matchbook

Montanes is a typical one tournament player and this is his tourney and he is playing great. Delbonis is very strrog on clay, but I am not sure if those are appropriate odds.  H2H is for Delbonis, but Albert is kno

wn for causing upset wins. Let's not forget that Montanes was 0:2 against Bagnis, but managed to beat him easy here.

Parmentier - Cibulkova 3.20 Pinnacle

Parmentier is playing great tennis. She is destroying her opponents. I think she will win the tournament. Cibulkova is not the best indoor player, despite the fact that she did it pretty well on the surface this season.

A friend of mine said the same about Parmentier yesterday so I like that but did you have to go against Federico? Albert has like I mentioned faced three players outside top 100 and you don't seem to take that into account in your constant search for upsets.

Edit: Parmentier and Cibulkova are 1-1 on indoor hardcourts with Parmentier winning the first one in Tashkent 2007 6-2 6-2 and then 2012 Cibulkova winning in Bratislava Fed-cup round one 6-4 6-3. Not impossible to see Parmentier winning Katowice but I belive in either Giorgi or Ostapenko.

Edited April 9, 2016 by four-leaf