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Monthly Naps Comp, ''Sunday'' 17th Jan 2016


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L1.50 Getoutwhenyoucan e/w 50/1 Bet365

You couldn't give this one a prayer on its debut run for its new stable last time out, but there are bits and pieces of form from 2014 which suggest the horse could be competitive here. The horses 4 career wins have all been on soft/heavy ground and it's all a question of whether the trainer has managed to get the horse back into form. It's the rank outsider of the 13 runners and at this price, I'll take a chance with it.

 

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1.30 Kempton

Bailiwick has been consistent of late but needs to find more to be winning this.

Jammy Guest had been banging on the door in recent times before winning last time out, that was over 6f just as capable over 7f and a 4lb rise is fair however he was a poor strike rate and that was a poor race last time out this looks tougher and worth taking on at current prices.

Ocean Legend is more than capable at this level despite his last few wins coming in sellers and claimers and has to be respected.

Twin Point made all at Lingfield last time out and that could be the key today, there appears a lack of pace in this race and he may well get a soft lead again. Handicapper been  a little harsh ptting him up 7lb for that effort however still well handicapped on previous form having won off a 1lb higher mark. Also only 3rd run for this yard so potential for more yet.

 

1pt win Twin Point 11/4 bet365

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225 Leopardstown

A typically tricky puzzle to sort out and I’m sticking with the trends here by selecting a couple that are rated below the 128 threshold. You cant ignore the way Whatsforuwontgobyu won last time out and being in the ownership of JP McManus I’m sure he will spot on for this. I’m also keen on Desoto County now he seems to have found his form now he has settled in with Gordon Elliott. He could be a big improver and his mark of 126 looks lenient to me.

 

Selections:

Desoto County 9/1 Paddy Power

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Kemp 1.30 - Ocean Legend - win at 8/1 sportingbet

7F handicap

My selection is a veteran now at 11 years old but he's still capable and won a claimer last time against horses with similar ratings to himself

This is his CD with 10 career wins over Kempton's 7F

Wide draw not so problematic as he usually drops in and comes with a late run. He;s 1lb lower than hios last handicap win which came in April last year. Cathy Gannon keeps the ride after winning on him last time

 

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3.00 Leopardstown - Fine Rightly @ 5/1 Paddy Power

Really don't think this race is very competitive and the two other interesting horses are Blood Cotil who has a tough ask on his reappearance with top weight after a set back and Heathfield who needs an extreme trip. Fine Rightly has won his last 3 over fences and was 2nd on his other two starts behind two nice horses including subsequent Grade 1 winner Sizing Granite. Ground and trip is ideal and he can win again off 147.

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Kempton 3.10 Coup De Grace (14/1 betvictor bog)

This fellow is very interesting on the all weather, he either wins or he doesn't trouble the judge. He has had 6 runs on the all weather, won 3 and not placed in the other 3. At the distance on the all weather he as 3 wins from 5 runs. And when it comes to the combination of going, distance and class he has 2 wins from 3 runs. And interestingly all his 3 all weather wins have come in January and Frebruary at 1 win a year since 2013

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3.40 Kempton: Conditions Stakes, 6f

A clear case can be made for Gracious John, who despite having to give weight away, is the one to beat. He already proved to be equally as good a three year old as he was as a juvenile and continues to progress.

Much more exposed Field Of Vision is a smart sort in his own right, but is the 6f trip what he wants? If there isn't too much pace on he might be able to steal it from the front.

I'm most intrigued by the filly Khameela. She impressed at her debut for the Simcock yard earlier this month at Lingfield, confirming a promising racecourse debut in October. She as clearly way too good for her opposition the last time - this here is a steep rise in grade. 

At the given odds I feel she is worth chancing with in this race, given that she has loads of scope and can only further improve as she looked still green enough at Lingfield. 

Khameela @ 11/1 Ladbroke

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6 hours ago, Cairnhill Diamond said:

Jammy Guest in the 1-30 Kempton. 1 pt win 3/1 with various including Bet Bright. Thank you. 

Once again bookie not accepted, its not rocket science guys. It will cost you one day and then you will moan at me for being harsh!

From the rules thread;

PM sent.

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