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Monthly Naps Competition, Wednesday 28th October 2015


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2.20 Nottingham

Our Boy Jack win 8/1 Ladbrokes

Been  a bit in and out of late. Won at Thirsk two starts ago and  followed it up with a below performance Ayr. Was in better form when finishing 4th at Haydock last time out. It was a hot looking handicap at Haydock and runs off the same mark today and down in grade and to me looks very competitive.

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210 Fakenham: Old Fashion 6/1 BetVic/Coral

Trainer Neil King used to have a terrific record here when he trained down the road at Newmarket and interesting that he brings a couple today including Old Fashion who is having his first run for the yard after winning at Beverley on the flat (12f). He has booked Richard Johnson which is positive, they teamed up to win on a novice at Huntingdon recently.

Alan King has the favourite so that has to be the danger but at the prices i like the King horse on this track. (hope we don't get too much rain!)

 

Edited by BillyHills
Bookie was Coral not Hills.
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N2.20 Yeenaan 15/2 Bet365

The higher drawn horses tend to be favoured i soft ground at Nottingham and I fancy this one (drawn 12) to prevail from Le Char Dor (drawn 11). Both have an excellent chance on the book but preference is for the more unexposed and progressive Yeenaan  who has won both its starts on soft/heavy ground. Therein lies the key, the 2nd of those wins was an easy success of just a 3lb lower mark than todays and the form has been franked by many of those behind in both this horses 2 career wins.

 

 

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2.20 - Notts - Janaab - 25/1 - Hills BOG - 0.5 ew

Won off a mark of 72 in July and goes off just 1lb higher here today. Rachael Richardson was on board that day and get the ride again. Was only beaten and length and half in a C2 last time out and drops back into a C4 today. 

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Fak 1.10 - Wily Fox - win at 4/1 bog wm hill

Staying handicap hurdle

Going to take a chance and oppose the short priced favourite here. Tokyo Javelix has been in smart form recently but has had 3  races in short order and this is his 4th race in under 4 weeks. He had a similar run in 2014 where he won 3 times in about 6 weeks then started to go backwards.

The other one who has a chance is Occasionally Yours who has won his last 3 but there is a doubt as to whether he stays this trip. He's obviously in good form

My selection is having is second run of the season after running well to finish 2nd in a better race first time out. The softer ground should suit and he's quite well handicapped having won off higher marks in the past

Let's see if he can give the two in-form horses a run for their money !

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Increased Distances at Fakenham;

Not good for any doubtful stayers plus the rain!!! Don't fancy my bet as much now!!

GOING: Good to Soft, 
RAILS: 
Race 1 - plus 237 yards
Race 2 - plus 158 yards
Race 3 - plus 158 yards
Race 4 - plus 172 yards
Race 5 - plus 197 yards
Race 6 - plus 215 yards
Race 7 - plus 158 yards

 

:ok

Edited by BillyHills
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Nottingham 2.20 : Dual Mac @ 9/1 e/w thanks

Dual Mac......from Neville Bycroft yard the 8yo has only had the 16 runs so far in his career and has been successful twice at 1m on good and good to soft ground with last win coming two races back at Beverley 8.5f only won by a head but won by more if he didn't serve left inside final furlong,

The yard ran him 28days ago with a 2lb penalty for that win but finished 7th beaten 1.75 lengths I would expect the yard worked on a bit more stamina work to balance the extra weight and be ready today for a good run as he's off the same mark 77 as last race , Jockey Raul Da Silva is in saddle

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2.10 Fakenham  MISS EXCELLENCE is a bit of a shot in the dark, but totally different for her today and she can show improved form now hurdling.  Breeding suggests the trip and ground shouldn't be a concern, it's a weak race, and although she needs to show plenty more, she's apprently schooled well at home and the odds do look too big, so worth taking a chance on.

0.5pts EW 125/1 Boylesports BOG

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7.55 Kempton - Honey Badger 9/2 coral/victor/ladds/paddy

 

Has been steadily increasing the trip, last race finishing second over 11 furlongs from 13 runners with SP 16/1. It was the only race under Robert Tart and the pair could continue the momentum with a win here.

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19.55 Kempton: Class 6 Handicap, 1m 4f

Really only one horse stands out here: Salient. He's quite a big price which opens the question whether today is his day. However his record says he can cause an upset alright. He meets ideally conditions here in terms of field size, trip and is down to his last AW winning mark. 

His Kempton record is slightly concerning, given Slient is usually an excellent All-Weather horse. But then those poor runs came all over much shorter trips. He was found out for class in a class 4 Handicap at Epsom when last seen but won back in September at Goodwood.

He gets the assistance of talented 7lb claimer Callum Shepperd who has ridden Salient in most of his races this season and won twice on him, including back in May at Lingfield's All-Weather over 12f off the same mark Salient is on at the moment. Plum draw should suit to go forward.

All depends whether Salient is on a good day - if so he's going to be a big danger to the short priced favourite Jack Bear, who has fair credentials but doesn't look like a 2/1 shot at all!

Salient @ 16/1 VC 

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