Jump to content

Monthly Naps Comp Friday 23rd October 2015


Recommended Posts

Chelt 2.45 - Rock The World - win at 5/2 bog wm hill

2 mile novice chase

Only 4 runners here but it's a tricky little race to get a grip on

Qewy makes his fencing debut and was probably the best of these over hurdles, finishing 5th in the Supreme and 3rd in an Aintree grade 2 last year after winning a classy novice race at Newbury. His yard are in tremendous form. But he is flat bred and that's usually a worry when horses go chasing. He's also only won on soft ground to date. I suspect he might go off favourite but he looks a bit chancy as to whether he'll be as good over fences.

Sizing Codelco is the outsider of the party. He won a Beginners event at odds on in Ireland last time by 8L but had the fortune of the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th favourites all falling. These 'Sizing' horses are usually pretty good but he looks like the worst of these

Paul Nicholl's Dormello Mo has been running through the summer with 6 outings at Newton Abbot. On official figures he's the best in at todays weights and has shown some smart form. But can't help but that summer form at NA is probably not that great in the scheme of things and he has been beaten twice and UR once so it's not as though he was unbeatable even at NA.

That leaves my selection. He's already won a grade 3 over in Ireland and the horse he beat has won 3 grade races since. Found 20F on soft ground too much last time and the return to a shorter trip on good ground should suit

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Doncaster 3:10 : Jamaican Bolt @ 20/1 skybet e/w thanks

Jamaican Bolt.....from Geoffrey Oldroyd yard the 7yo comes back here trying to retain the trophy that he won last year on condition that are the same good to soft and is running off 8st 12lbs he ran off 9.0st last year and is only down 1 in ratings to 89 , The yard last year had William Buick in saddle but a change to Barry McHugh who been in saddle all 5 races he's ran this season although not been in frame for those races I would think the yard have been looking to get him down to a winable mark

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3.10 - Doncaster - Cool Bahamian - 22/1 - SkyBet BOG - 0.5 ew

Might as well have a go at this lottery of a race and going to go with Cool Bahamian who gets in off bottom weight here. Won 2 starts ago off a mark 82 at Newmarket over this trip and on good to soft ground which is forecast here today - 3 out of 4 career wins have come on this ground. Was a good 3rd of 17 last time when only beaten half a length. Only 3lb above last winning mark so not too much to ask and Joe Fanning takes the ride for the first time here. Good luck all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

D3.10 Blaine 33/1 William Hill

The shrewd Kevin Ryan has got this horse down to a very decent mark now and he's booked Graham Lee for the ride. The horse races off 94 today but was racing off (and being placed off) a mark of 104 around this time last year. This previous Gimcrack winner has a touch of class on a going day and Kevin Ryan has had a lot of runners recently suggesting he's targetted this time of the season to pick up some winnings from well handicapped horses - I just hope this is one of them !

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

540 Cheltenham: Clondaw Banker 5/2 SJ/Coral

Really good card at Chelters as you would expect and the best bet on the day for me is in the last with the Henderson horse Clondaw Banker. Now this was highly regarded last term after winning a PTP and a Bumper.

Has now had four starts over hurdles and yet to register despite being well backed on all four runs and starting fav on three of them. They were good races too, two at Ascot, one here and the last one at Doncaster. Ran well enough on all starts in the context of this event and the handicapper can only mark up what he sees and this one has got in his first handicap off just 121. I bet Henderson didn't think that was possible this time last year?

Anyway, starts off in a conditional event with the very good Jeremiah McGrath in the saddle, arguably the best jockey in the race. Cant get penalised if he wins here so i'm suspecting a plan for a quick turn out if he wins as he should.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3.20 Cheltenham: Class 2 Hurdle, 3m

I missed the big prices for Dark Spirit but still feel the current odds represent some fair value in this field for a mare that likes the track, the ground and has won over this sort of trip in the past. Her record fresh is fine and the drop back into handicaps will suit.

She wasn't disgraced in much better races towards the end last year, however clearly found out for class there. She remains a progressive mare nonetheless and is on fair mark. The help of a decent 10lb claimer is a bonus though, given that the yard is going strongly in recent weeks too.

Dark Spirit @ 6/1 Coral 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1655 doncaster - morocco 20/1 victor/paddy/stan james

 

Morocco has only won 2 races in 2013 and has failed to impress since, but Tutty has a high win SP average and I don't think they would have entered this race if they wouldn't have thought he had a chance to place. Only in 2 of his last 10 races he has been priced below 9/1, in some of them had a SP of 20/1, 25/1, 40/1. Odds seem to have been shortening today on him.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8.05 Dundalk - Eisenhower @ 14/1 StanJames

Competitive listed contest but this extremely well bred War Front colt has just 3 starts under his belt after a promising reappearance here a couple of weeks back. O'Brien's nearly always come on for the run and the addition of headgear might sharpen him up a bit stepping back down to the minimum trip which is the distance he won over in spring. He looks a nice price for such an unexposed Ballydoyle horse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of good winners:clap

Gbettle 11/1, Trotter 5/2, Pete 2nd 18/1 EW, Tipsterix 5/1, Striker 5/2, Robertob 11/1

 

Laters

9:20 Wolverhampton - Kingston Sassafras.  1pt Win Bet @ 25/1 Bet365

Kilteery Pier 7.35 Dundalk , 18/1 Betway

8.05 Dundalk - Eisenhower @ 14/1 StanJames

Competitive listed contest but this extremely well bred War Front colt has just 3 starts under his belt after a promising reappearance here a couple of weeks back. O'Brien's nearly always come on for the run and the addition of headgear might sharpen him up a bit stepping back down to the minimum trip which is the distance he won over in spring. He looks a nice price for such an unexposed Ballydoyle horse.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...