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Monthly Naps Comp, Saturday 10th Oct 2015


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Sole stand out runner for Trainer Michael Bell and he couldn't have selected a harder race what with 19 runners going for post, the filly has 8 runs on her CV with just the one sole victory, that win was at Yarmouth in a class 5 so she MUST step up.

She's not been seen in 31 days and could now be ANYTHING, she also has the services of one of the very best pilots in the game, Mr Sir Ryan Moore.

 

5pm HQ - Touchline.  0.5 E/w Bet @ 11/1 Betfred & Corals 

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Not often you get a Tony Martin trained horse at 33s in a big staying handicap but there's one at a huge price tomorrow. Cassells Rock was given the dodgiest ride I've seen all season in the Cesarewitch trial at Newmarket when Billy Lee barely asked any effort off the him at all despite travelling as good as anything. If you go back to his penultimate start on the flat he was second in a hot renewal of the staying handicap at Leopardstown on Irish Champions Weekend with the winner now rated 102, the third 109 and the 4th a subsequent winner of the Ladbroke Handicap at Ascot. He races off 1lb lower here which makes him a danger even from the widest draw.

3.50 Newmarket - Cassells Rock e/w @ 33/1 BetVictor

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3.50 Newmarket - Gavlar EW @ 33/1 Bet365

Gavlar has been progressing all season winning 3 times and running well on all but 1 start.  His latest start came in the trial for this race where he finished 4th behind Low Key in a slowly run race.  I am hoping for a better pace tomorrow, which will suit Gavlar but I certainly don't think he has stopped improving.  Frederik Tylicki rode him in the trial but Callum Shepherd is back on board tomorrow taking off a very handy 7lbs.  He also rode him 2 both victories at Kempton quite recently and seems to get on well with the horse.  I think he has an excellent chance of at least making the first 5.    

 

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3.50 NEW

MOSCATO @ 20/1 Boylesport

Prescott comes into this mob handed but Morris picks this in preference to two higher rated rivals. Still fairly unexposed for a 4yo and looks to have been layed out for this with only one run since May. Drying ground would be a bonus but still looks a stayer with his best days ahead of him.

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Gifted Master 14.35 Newmarket  7/2 Bet Victor

Hugely smart on his debut run on this course but has had many moody issues pre race and during and unable to settle they gelded it and we saw a different horse staying settled and turning in a great performance with a exceptional time, the horse seems to love this course which isa big plus

Big run today could well be a very useful type already been money for it in from 9/2 to 7/2

 

 

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505 Chepstow: Sausalito Sunrise 11/4 PP/SJ

Cracking card at Chepstow and very competitive stuff however i do like the look of the Hobbs runner here. Has won here at the course over hurdles and fences and is effective on any ground. 

Was about to finish second to Coneygree at Kempton when last seen until falling so i think his mark of 144 is pretty lenient and should be able to take advantage in the early season handicaps and then maybe go on to better things. Yard do well here and are going ok at the moment.

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3.55 Chepstow: Hamilton Hurdle (Handicap, Class 2), 2m

I really like Stars Over The Sea to do well here. He seems on a fair weight given his excellent performances last season, where he finished 4th in two big Grade 1's at Aintree and Punchestown. Chepstow has the best possible jumping ground today which will suit this him allot and given that he had done extremely well as a fresh horse in the ears before, I would expect him to be a big runner today.

Stars Over The Sea @ 10/1 Coral 

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14.50 York Donjuan Triumphant @ 3-1 Bet365

Has had market support in every race he has ran in and finally got his win in style in a decent Ayr Nursery last time out. Acts on the ground and always runs his race hopefully the step up in class will be taken in his stride and provide Richard Fahey with another Saturday winner.

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Hex 3.35 - Brother Scott - win at 7/2 bog boylesports

Class 4 handicap chase around two and a half miles, good to soft, stiff uphill finish

My selection has run well here the last twice winning then finishing 2nd from out of the handicap

Clearly likes the track and is in good form so should run his race.

Although this looks quite a bit better than the race he won most of his rivals have question marks, on seasonal debut, out of form or not looking to be best suited by stiff tracks

My horse might have been flattered against a decent rival last time but he could win this by default

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Deauville Dancer - Newmarket 3.50

One of 4 horses Sir Mark Prescott has in the race. This will be his third race since a break from June. First race back was top weight at Wolverhampton and finished 5th of 7 runners (3rd favourite in betting). Next race finished second to a Marcus Tregoning's 3 year old Burmese (3 wins and 3 seconds from its 6 races) beaten 2 1/4 lengths and giving 6 lbs. to the winner. So appears to be coming into form and subject to no navigation problems should be there or thereabouts at the end.

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5.00 Newmarket  HOLLEY SHIFTWELL  is interesting with Tom Queally riding for Stuart Williams, as although the horse needs to improve on what we know, I feel the race can be run to suit and I expect her to be staying on stronger than most today.  A mark of 93 is fine, so fingers crossed.

0.5pts ew 100/1 Skybet BOG

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1740 chepstow - ballyvoneen 14/1 bet365/sky

 

5 wins and 11 more placed finishes from 28 runs on good ground. 6 wins and 5 more placed from 20 runs on 23 furlongs races. When racing for the third time after a break of at least 3 months (like today) has won 2 out of 7 at an average sp of 8/1 and a 150% roi.

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7.40 Chelmsford

Twenty One Choice just looks a far too bigger price in my opinion, he has some really useful AW form and returned to winning ways returned to the AW surface at Wolverhampton last time out, rallying to get back up at the death only up 2lb for that effort which is more than fair now rated 71 but has previously won off 73 so potentially still well handicapped. Baileys En Premier is the only other front runner in this field but he is drawn out wide where as Twenty One Choice has got a kind draw. He is 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on the AW so solid EW chance at a huge price.

 

 

0.5pt e/w Twenty One Choice 16/1 bet365

  

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C8.40 Honour Promise 25/1 Bet365

Tom Marquand takes the ride for the first time on this one and he's able to claim 3lb. The excellent jockeys claim and the falling handicap mark suggest that the horse could be competitive here and may add to its sole win at 20/1. The 2nd in that race has won since to todays effective mark of 5lb could still be a decent one especially since sire stats at this course are really strong.

 

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4 winners so far:clap

Jedi 10/3, Soi Bongkot 4/1, Gambolaya 3/1 & Striker 1/1

 

To run

 

7.40 Chelmsford

Twenty One Choice just looks a far too bigger price in my opinion, he has some really useful AW form and returned to winning ways returned to the AW surface at Wolverhampton last time out, rallying to get back up at the death only up 2lb for that effort which is more than fair now rated 71 but has previously won off 73 so potentially still well handicapped. Baileys En Premier is the only other front runner in this field but he is drawn out wide where as Twenty One Choice has got a kind draw. He is 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runs on the AW so solid EW chance at a huge price.

 

 

0.5pt e/w Twenty One Choice 16/1 bet365

  

 

C8.40 Honour Promise 25/1 Bet365

Tom Marquand takes the ride for the first time on this one and he's able to claim 3lb. The excellent jockeys claim and the falling handicap mark suggest that the horse could be competitive here and may add to its sole win at 20/1. The 2nd in that race has won since to todays effective mark of 5lb could still be a decent one especially since sire stats at this course are really strong.

 

 

Edited by BillyHills
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