Ashtee Posted November 29, 2015 Author Share Posted November 29, 2015 Even with losing the height of Stallworth it was an out of character result from a team I'd emarked as dependable. Hate to get philosophical when we should be busy smashing up the furniture but times I've been to a casino sooner or later you see a table with twelve blacks in a row. Doesn't mean someone playing red is choosing badly. Wiping say eight units (standard match bet = 1u) in three rounds (I've torched six in 1.5 rounds) is nothing new to me over the years. Probably a couple regret bets that maybe didn't feel so right but I know to just keep doing what works. The fact is that when I've got a decent result from a season sometimes it's consistant monthly wins but more often it is like four of the six months just treading water or losing some but it's the other two random months all of a sudden that the damage is done. Having said that I'm still four units up on the back of bumper October. Just that NBL is giving me strife. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Dandenong may have been trained in the not so subtle approach to match fixing by bendigo where you win or lose by 30 after checking what I am on and taking the opposite position, so hard to be confident. however, ignoring i think perth should be about 10 point favourite here before adjusting for tough scheduling. Perth +4 2u Not to clear but it appears Bowen is playing and when they have had their full compliment Adelaide have been competitive. Sydney will probably be keen after a poor showing last week but line seem too high to me. Adelaide +16.5 2u Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 For similar reasons: Adelaide +16.5 @ 1.90 and some @ 11.00 Do catch Sydney angry and better rested than previous times they met but themselves reportably have been up & about at practice off a loss they were unhappy with. Are competitive enough to keep within sixteen of most teams. Bowen seems to be playing, from what I've gleaned. Perth @ 2.68 & +3.5 @ 1.90 I've marked them 1.90 fave despite fatique concerns but they do have a strong recovery program in place. NB. Game is being streamed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 must feel a little ripped off that the $11 shot didn't even provide a sweat. nice call, wish i'd seen your play before the game i probably would have tailed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Of course perth takes the night off - I backed them fuck off Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 17 minutes ago, Dog&Under said: Of course perth takes the night off - I backed them fuck off Carification - SU or cap? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 4, 2015 Author Share Posted December 4, 2015 28 minutes ago, binomial said: must feel a little ripped off that the $11 shot didn't even provide a sweat. nice call, wish i'd seen your play before the game i probably would have tailed. Yes, really did want the whole last minute thing where every update is one horrid . Maybe it's just me but it's amazing how 27pts up & 0:03 remaining you still hang out for 'Game Complete' to come through. Was close to trying Bendigo too, had they drifted to >5.50, or did I miss that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 (edited) Bet a shit line and paid for it... Haven't won a play in wnbl for about six years used es to be my best sport, now it's just a five minute donation Edited December 4, 2015 by Dog&Under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Canberra +8.5 One player in Adelaide made a massive difference. Not quite the same thing because Canberra lost one or two also but thinking they only need to improve a bit to cover here against free-falling Sydney. Melbourne +4 Melbourne's best has been about as good as anyone with wins over Townsville and Bendigo. Didn't watch the Perth game last night but play by play suggests both teams were battling . Perth should be out of gas here. Imagine you would be doing pretty well backing dogs ML all season, may be the wrong time to jump on. Melbourne game under 147.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 5, 2015 Author Share Posted December 5, 2015 You must have a great mind! Canberra @ 4.30 & +8.5 @ 1.91 Angry but tired opp, however Caps, in lucky venue, have been getting closer to breaking through. Stallworth could be up for a special effort and helps height problems, despite doesn't know teamates. Melbourne +4.5 @ 1.90 Was actually a high standard defensive performance from Rangers last night but Perth looked flat in the warm up to me and a little down on mojo during game. Showed their quality in last term and are clearly better than Rangers IMO. Angry opponent on no travel for Boomers to deal with but obviously Boomers well rested and hopefully won't get ahead of selves off couple wins. Just made them marginal fave and thought Perth would more likely be the play before I looked. Lynx win over SEQ has possibly driven that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 Bendigo +4.5 Bendigo have lost 4 games ATS by more than 20 but taking them here given SEQ seem to be in freefall. Adeleaide 0 2u Not much between teams, with the exception of the caps, but I have Adealide rated fourth based on teams last five games. 40+ degrees probably some advantage to the home team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Yes, agree, I often like to apply a factor in favour of home team when weather is rough, despite that often some blowhard will point out that stadium is air conditioned. Was not sure I should have passed up the 2.04 Pinnacle this morning but just got set Adelaide @ 2.25 TAB . Doubt it will last too long given there's a sizable arb. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 Give me a break! Doesn't happen! Bench mins 51-37. Pleased to have got 2.25 rather than the early price, although would have been nice if a buzzer goes off when topped out at 2.45 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 6, 2015 Author Share Posted December 6, 2015 I was close to taking Bendigo again today. Don't know why I'm passing them up, they're the most dependable side in it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Tried SEQ @ 3.75 Some team turmoil seemingly has hurt balance, depth and motivation lately. Am prepared to give them a shot tonight at odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Can't decide whether SEQ is a knife catch or smart play. Leaning to the over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 That's why I'm on the straight up. Will either win or get done double figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Canberra +13.5 Melbourne game over 145 No real confidence in these two, but Canberra appear to be on the improve from very low place and dandenong have been variable. Bendigo have been scoring well albeit against uptempo teams and feel melbourne due for an ouburst of competence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 (edited) 39 minutes ago, binomial said: Canberra +13.5 Just be careful that they are not within one basket (of winning) with one minute left on the clock. The mastermind will instruct them to keep fouling until they lose by fourteen. Edited December 12, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Canberra @ 8.00 & +14.5 @ 1.99 Certainly overs IMO. Split this wager 50/50. I notice there's some 10.00 available now. Melboure @ 4.75 Bendigo tough at home but this price too big IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 (edited) Out of respect for you gents I didn't mention that I also bet Canberra +12.5 .. will stick to the 'after timing' formula need to take a closer look at some earlier season box scores but in recent weeks at least it seems Dandenong is having a bit of trouble running out games. Another brave backdoor fightback from Canberra but Surely Carrie Graf is on borrowed time .....? Edited December 12, 2015 by Dog&Under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Watching the game it looked like they never practice. They were putred, all at sea on offence, soft defence and lost all the 50-50's. It was the young gun, Wehrung who brought energy and got them going SH and, of course, another Rangers fade out. Stallworth confidence is obviously shot - seven TOs tells her story. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 13, 2015 Author Share Posted December 13, 2015 (edited) Canberra @ 5.30 & +10.5 @ 1.90 Are a much better chance than this if can carry forward momentum from winning the SH last night. An anomoly in that the home team, on a bit later finish are the one's who need to travel. Still good overs currently around & over 4.00's IMO. Adelaide @ 2.43 & +4 @ 1.92 Two teams in differing motivational states at present. Adelaide should be the clear favorite IMO. Edited December 13, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 13, 2015 Share Posted December 13, 2015 Liked a couple today but after taking Townsville in the early game, opted for a mental break instead.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Line seems generous for Sydney tonight, I marked this game a lot closer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 (edited) I believe it is very generous. Sydney will be desperate for a win too. I've marked the game almost evens. Interrupted week for Bendigo with Richards ill (although she usually has a binder when layed up) and Oliver battling a calf. Always wonder how the latest politics could rub off too. Sydney @ 3.20 & +6 @ 1.94 Melbourne @ 3.35 @ +6.5 @ 1.92 No madgen again. Have found their feet, winning four of last five (Madgen either out or hampered). Usually worries me a little when someone gets player of the week but she's quite a level headed person. Boomers a more than serious chance tonight IMO. Edited December 18, 2015 by Ashtee Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 Canberra +17.5 @ 1.90 I've got this at least an even money chance of staying under ten. At 13.00 it will be interesting to see if it proves a bad week to quit taking them straight up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
binomial Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 i like those two also, but a bit concerned Canberra may quit after several close ones for no result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dog&Under Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 (edited) Good job Sydney Edited December 18, 2015 by Dog&Under Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ashtee Posted December 18, 2015 Author Share Posted December 18, 2015 1 hour ago, Dog&Under said: Good job Sydney The old tactic again . I feel blessed to steal a push at Dandenong, always looked too hard. Although those friendly rolls Rangers had too many of really got on my nerves! Dog&Under 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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