lucky_se7en Posted April 12, 2010 Share Posted April 12, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Very interesting thread Grex, will be looking forward to next season, may even do something similar myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Both "selections" Birmingham (drew) and Stoke (lost) failed today. It's currently 0 out of 3 for EPL, but 2 out of 3 for Serie A, since this system was stopped. :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ultravires Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites What about Sunderland? Would they not have qualified at around 1.7? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Oops! My mistake, it's Sunderland, not Stoke! My bad. So it's 1 out of 3 for EPL, and 2 out of 3 for Serie A. Thanks ultravires for pointing out! *sincere apologies* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites lucky_se7en;1658956 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks, Lucky Se7en...... I will do a further analysis at the end of the season to see if there would have been any merit in adjusting the odds threshold (1.45-1.80 according to Bet365). I will look forward to hearing of any "similar" system you come up with.... but one word of advice.... keep it simple :ok [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks to Relf and Ultravires for continuing an interest in the system, even though it has officially stopped. I think I will definitely leave out the first 6 rounds and the last 6 rounds next season ;) [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gerry81 Posted June 20, 2010 Share Posted June 20, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, I've only just found PL and have been reading this thread with interest. Apologies for dragging it back up however I have one or two questions. First of all I'm working on my own system in relation to short priced home favourites, it will cover more leagues, selection of games will also be based on teams form etc and I'll be placing accumulators as opposed to single bets. With regards your system I'm wondering if yo have access to or could point me in the right direction of the historical odds for the games in this thread for the Draw No Bet market. I've been looking through your results and there were 20 losing bets as a result of draws with a total stake of 383.13. I'm curious to find out if your system would be more/less profitable in this market, given that the odds would be lower so your stakes would be higher to return 1% of the bank with each bet the total stakes lost on away wins would also be higher so this may negate the stakes returned as a result of draws. Anyway if you could point me in the right direction for the historical odds that would be great. Either way, great system, I'll look forward to September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted June 22, 2010 Author Share Posted June 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Gerry.... and thanks for your interest in the "system". [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Regarding historical odds for DNB, may I suggest the free site, football-data.co.uk. It quotes AH odds for all major leagues - it used to quote the "balanced" AH odds e.g. AH(-0.25) 2.05 1.90, but for the past two seasons, for most of the games, it quotes the AH(0) odds which are the same as DNB. I asked the author of the site why he had changed the routine... he responded that the AH(0) market was now the most popular with punters. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Regarding back-analysis of the sytem to compare the results using DNB..... unfortunately, a month ago my hard disk crashed and I lost all my data :wall:wall:wall:wall. So, I will have to start again from scratch for the new season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiGHTyDuCK Posted September 3, 2010 Share Posted September 3, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Would you make a comeback soon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 4, 2010 Author Share Posted September 4, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Don't worry, I haven't forgotten about this system..... but I will wait until after 6 "rounds" of matches have been played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Just a quick update on this thread.... it will officially be starting again in 2 weeks after the Premiership has passed the 6th round. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I have just checked the results so far in the EP.... and they are BAD. There would have been 8 games that fell within the odds range, and only 3 ended up with a home win.... the yield would have been MINUS 38% :loon. Let's hope the strategy of waiting until after the sixth round pays dividends. :hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiGHTyDuCK Posted September 22, 2010 Share Posted September 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hey good to know you'll be back i found this thread recently and i like the simplicity of it just one quick question, is there a way to check back the last lets say 5 season with matches just between late september to mid march ? (instead of back testing whole seasons) i think that some of the yield "loss" is during those periods I believe that if we find a time range which we should use this system we can get better yield. thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted September 22, 2010 Author Share Posted September 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, MightyDuck.... when I developed the system through back-testing, it was based on data from football-data.co.uk. The results for the first 6 rounds and the last 6 rounds of each season (i.e. before early October and after late March) were a bit erratic, and that's why the system won't start for the EP until a week on Saturday.... and even later for Serie A. I hope that answers your question :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1774794 ..... and, of course that was today.... I was sleeping and missed it. The only qualifying game from today was Spurs (odds 1.80) v Villa.... and Spurs duly won. So, a good start, although it can't be included in the results :cry. I will check to see if there is anything for tomorrow, and come back later :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites OK, there is one qualifier for tomorrow.... the big London derby. This season I am going to stick with straight 10 unit bets, which performed better last season compared with the rather complicated "conservative" loss-recovery staking system. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Let's see how it goes :hope No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturnBankYield1,000.00103/10/2010EPChelseaArsenalH1.7010.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2010 Author Share Posted October 3, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites The first one is a winner..... I think I will call it a day now while I'm on a winning streak ;) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield [/SIZE] 1,000.00 [SIZE=1] 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.70 10.00 W 7.00 1,007.00 70% Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 3, 2010 Author Share Posted October 3, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This thread will go quiet for a bit.... the next EP matches are on 16 October, and Italy Serie A will join the fray on 24 October after they have passed the 6th round. Enjoy the internationals ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 16, 2010 Author Share Posted October 16, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Three for the weekend....... :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 1,000.00 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.70 10.00 W 7.00 1,007.00 70% Bet365 2 16/10/2010 EP Newcastle Wigan H 1.73 10.00 Pinnacle 3 16/10/2010 IA AC Milan Chievo H 1.47 10.00 Pinnacle 4 17/10/2010 IA Palermo Bologna H 1.64 10.00 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 17, 2010 Author Share Posted October 17, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Despite fighting back from 0-2 down, Newcastle couldn't quite manage the win :\. So, a meagre yield of only 4% on the weekend. Until next weekend.... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 1,000.00 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.75 10.00 W 7.50 1,007.50 75% Pinnacle 2 16/10/2010 EP Newcastle 22 Wigan H 1.73 10.00 L -10.00 997.50 -13% Pinnacle 3 16/10/2010 IA AC Milan 31 Chievo H 1.47 10.00 W 4.72 1,002.22 7% Pinnacle 4 17/10/2010 IA Palermo 41 Bologna H 1.64 10.00 W 6.41 1,008.63 22% Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew Posted October 21, 2010 Share Posted October 21, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, Mightyduck asked you about backtesting. Do you have the figures to hand, stashed in a spreadsheet somewhere in the depths of your computers folder structure no doubt! I like these types of systems. Yield may be low but you turn over your money faster so your absolute profits are higher. Good luck this season, I've been stung in the conference this season betting heavy odds-on. Sticking to the top flights should be more consistent than the part-timers I put my money on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 21, 2010 Author Share Posted October 21, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Matthew.... and thanks for your comments. Unfortunately I had a major disaster with my hard drive about 6 months ago.... lost everything (and please don't tell me I should back-up regularly :wall). However, it is a VERY simple system and I will try to recreate the backtesting with data from footballdata.co.uk when I have time..... or you could even try it yourself :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted October 22, 2010 Share Posted October 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, well done on this and your under over thread, I'm sure to be following both, while trying to perfect my own :hope. Just a quick question, you seem to do a lot of back testing, I've had a look at the football data site and think its a bit beyond my excel skills at the moment. Is it easier than it looks, or could you give me a push in the right direction. My excel skills come from the 'book for dummies' so I may need to improve that before I can go down this path, cheers, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 22, 2010 Author Share Posted October 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Jimjohn. Without knowing your expertise in Excel, and exactly what type of backtesting you want to do, it's a bit difficult to offer any constructive advice. I think the first step is to download the relevant .csv file from football-data and delete all irrelevant information, so that you just have the bare bones relevant to the system you are testing (e.g. teams, FT scores, 1x2 odds, over/under odds). Then isolate the information you are after ("if" function is often useful). Where you go from there depends on what you're after. When you arrive at 50 posts, I can send you an example by PM :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, there are 4 selections this weekend... 3 of them from Serie A :loon [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOdds [SIZE=1]Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 1,000.00 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.75 10.00 W 7.50 1,007.50 75% Pinnacle 2 16/10/2010 EP Newcastle 22 Wigan H 1.73 10.00 L -10.00 997.50 -13% Pinnacle 3 16/10/2010 IA AC Milan 31 Chievo H 1.47 10.00 W 4.72 1,002.22 7% Pinnacle 4 17/10/2010 IA Palermo 41 Bologna H 1.64 10.00 W 6.41 1,008.63 22% Pinnacle 5 23/10/2010 IA Fiorentina Bari H 1.75 10.00 Pinnacle 6 24/10/2010 EP Liverpool Blackburn H 1.66 10.00 Bet365 7 24/10/2010 IA Genoa Catania H 1.81 10.00 Pinnacle 8 24/10/2010 IA Lazio Cagliari H 1.75 10.00 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 22, 2010 Share Posted October 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Sorry, but I really do hope Blackburn can at least get a point out of Anfield (considering Blackpool came away with 3 points). ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimjohn Posted October 23, 2010 Share Posted October 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1796772]Hi, Jimjohn. Without knowing your expertise in Excel, and exactly what type of backtesting you want to do, it's a bit difficult to offer any constructive advice. I think the first step is to download the relevant .csv file from football-data and delete all irrelevant information, so that you just have the bare bones relevant to the system you are testing (e.g. teams, FT scores, 1x2 odds, over/under odds). Then isolate the information you are after ("if" function is often useful). Where you go from there depends on what you're after. When you arrive at 50 posts, I can send you an example by PM :ok [/quote] Hi Grex, my excel 'expertise' is very limited but I can manage the IF function with no problems. The suggestion about about only keeping relevent information will help, as it's a bit daunting when looking at the full sheets. I'll have a look before I reach my 50 posts and see what I come up with. This forum has been really helpful to me, I just hope to give a little back in time, thanks and good luck with your selections Grex, jimjohn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 23, 2010 Author Share Posted October 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites jimjohn;1797246 Thanks, Jimjohn..... we look forward to seeing the fruits of your labours some time soon. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Fiorentina made hard work of it this evening, but a win is a win.... let's hope Liverpool, Genoa and Lazio can complete the good work on Sunday (with apologies to Relf about Blackburn ;)) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 1,000.00 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.75 10.00 W 7.50 1,007.50 75% Pinnacle 2 16/10/2010 EP Newcastle 22 Wigan H 1.73 10.00 L -10.00 997.50 -13% Pinnacle 3 16/10/2010 IA AC Milan 31 Chievo H 1.47 10.00 W 4.72 1,002.22 7% Pinnacle 4 17/10/2010 IA Palermo 41 Bologna H 1.64 10.00 W 6.41 1,008.63 22% Pinnacle 5 23/10/2010 IA Fiorentina 21 Bari H 1.75 10.00 W 7.52 1,016.15 32% Pinnacle 6 24/10/2010 EP Liverpool Blackburn H 1.66 10.00 Bet365 7 24/10/2010 IA Genoa Catania H 1.81 10.00 Pinnacle 8 24/10/2010 IA Lazio Cagliari H 1.75 10.00 Pinnacle [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A FULL HOUSE :cow.... none of them convincing victories.... but who cares :tongue2 [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Looks as though there will be 5 selections for next weekend - I will be back on Friday. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 1,000.00 1 03/10/2010 EP Chelsea 20 Arsenal H 1.75 10.00 W 7.50 1,007.50 75% Pinnacle 2 16/10/2010 EP Newcastle 22 Wigan H 1.73 10.00 L -10.00 997.50 -13% Pinnacle 3 16/10/2010 IA AC Milan 31 Chievo H 1.47 10.00 W 4.72 1,002.22 7% Pinnacle 4 17/10/2010 IA Palermo 41 Bologna H 1.64 10.00 W 6.41 1,008.63 22% Pinnacle 5 23/10/2010 IA Fiorentina 21 Bari H 1.75 10.00 W 7.52 1,016.15 32% Pinnacle 6 24/10/2010 EP Liverpool 21 Blackburn H 1.66 10.00 W 6.60 1,022.75 38% Bet365 7 24/10/2010 IA Genoa 10 Catania H 1.81 10.00 W 8.06 1,030.81 44% Pinnacle 8 24/10/2010 IA Lazio 21 Cagliari H 1.75 10.00 W 7.52 1,038.33 48% Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :clap:clap:clap Well done!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted October 24, 2010 Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Nicely done mate :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Relf and JTW..... but let's not get carried away. I seem to remember when this thread started in September last year, it started off with an amazing run of "W's". The problem with this type of system is that it only takes a few bad results to put into negative territory, and with these odds, it is difficult to recover. But what the hell, let's celebrate while the going is good.... :cow:nana:cow:nana:cow:nana:cow ......... ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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