Grex Posted November 22, 2010 Author Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield It was a very good weekend for the system, with a 37% return on the 6 selections. The system continues to defy the odds by producing such a high strike rate (80%).... but I'm not complaining :D [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [/SIZE]No.DateLGE [SIZE=1]H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 100.00 21 13/11/2010 IA Fiorentina 10 Cesena H 1.51 10.00 W 5.13 157.30 27% Pinnacle 22 13/11/2010 EP Tottenham 42 Blackburn H 1.65 10.00 W 6.54 163.84 29% Pinnacle 23 14/11/2010 IA Palermo 31 Catania H 1.84 10.00 W 8.40 172.24 31% Pinnacle 24 14/11/2010 IA Udinese 40 Lecce H 1.61 10.00 W 6.13 178.37 33% Pinnacle 25 20/11/2010 EP Arsenal 23 Tottenham H 1.64 10.00 L -10.00 168.37 27% Pinnacle 26 20/11/2010 EP Liverpool 30 West Ham H 1.61 10.00 W 6.13 174.50 29% Pinnacle 27 20/11/2010 IA Roma 20 Udinese H 1.79 10.00 W 7.94 182.44 31% Pinnacle 28 20/11/2010 IA AC Milan 10 Fiorentina H 1.60 10.00 W 5.95 188.39 32% Pinnacle 29 21/11/2010 IA Catania 10 Bari H 1.67 10.00 W 6.67 195.06 33% Pinnacle 30 21/11/2010 IA Napoli 41 Bologna H 1.53 10.00 W 5.30 200.36 33% Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horizon Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi Excellent work with this system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saplingg Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Can I ask what made you change your decision to bet 24 hours before KO? From my brief observation, your odds were better when you posted early than when I looked at the odds before the games Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 22, 2010 Share Posted November 22, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Congrats on doubling the Bank :notworthy Looks like 4 to consider in Serie A this Sat/Sun , along with BOLTON . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield [quote=saplingg;1816808]Can I ask what made you change your decision to bet 24 hours before KO? From my brief observation, your odds were better when you posted early than when I looked at the odds before the games[/quote] The system was backtested using Bet365 odds taken from football-data.co.uk. The historical odds on this site are apparently taken the day before KO.... therefore, to be consistent, the system's selections should also be based on "day before" odds. [quote=jtw1;1817086]Congrats on doubling the Bank :notworthy Looks like 4 to consider in Serie A this Sat/Sun , along with BOLTON .[/quote] The Bank has only doubled because I changed the starting bank from 1,000 to 100 units ;).... but thanks anyway :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield jtw1;1817086 .... also Everton (currently at 1.57) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Grex;1817282 I am going to contradict myself, and post this weekend's selections early again. The reasons being..... all selections are comfortably within the odds range (1.45 - 1.80) and are very unlikely to move sufficiently by Friday to be out of the selection range.... and, the Pinnacle odds are significantly higher than Bet365 (15% in some cases), that I think they represent good value. So, here goes.... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 100.00 25 20/11/2010 EP Arsenal 23 Tottenham H 1.64 10.00 L -10.00 168.37 27% Pinnacle 26 20/11/2010 EP Liverpool 30 West Ham H 1.61 10.00 W 6.13 174.50 29% Pinnacle 27 20/11/2010 IA Roma 20 Udinese H 1.79 10.00 W 7.94 182.44 31% Pinnacle 28 20/11/2010 IA AC Milan 10 Fiorentina H 1.60 10.00 W 5.95 188.39 32% Pinnacle 29 21/11/2010 IA Catania 10 Bari H 1.67 10.00 W 6.67 195.06 33% Pinnacle 30 21/11/2010 IA Napoli 41 Bologna H 1.53 10.00 W 5.30 200.36 33% Bet365 31 27/11/2010 EP Bolton Blackpool H 1.63 10.00 Pinnacle 32 27/11/2010 EP Everton West Brom H 1.64 10.00 Pinnacle 33 27/11/2010 IA Juventus Fiorentina H 1.70 10.00 Pinnacle 34 28/11/2010 IA Inter Parma H 1.77 10.00 Pinnacle 35 28/11/2010 IA Cagliari Lecce H 1.64 10.00 Pinnacle 36 28/11/2010 IA Lazio Catania H 1.69 10.00 Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Grex;1817427 Before the "value betting" devotees start slagging me off, what I meant by the above comment was that by Friday I think that, overall, the Pinnacle odds will have dropped.... therefore they represent comparative good value at the moment.:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
saplingg Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Does your system account for any variables other than the win odds? Have you ever chose not to bet on a match that fits the system because of form, injuries, or just because you think that the market is not true? I like the look of your coming week's picks, except for Inter, they're in awful form and they will be stretched paper thin with the midweek Champion's League game against Twente... Which is why I asked :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RicardoFuller Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield I have been following this thread for a few weeks now and i like the progress its making/made. Keep it up!!!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 23, 2010 Author Share Posted November 23, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield RicardoFuller;1817559 Thanks, Ricardo..... let's hope the "progress" continues :ok [quote=saplingg;1817548]Does your system account for any variables other than the win odds? Have you ever chose not to bet on a match that fits the system because of form, injuries, or just because you think that the market is not true? I like the look of your coming week's picks, except for Inter, they're in awful form and they will be stretched paper thin with the midweek Champion's League game against Twente... Which is why I asked :)[/quote] No, it is very simple...... selections are based purely on Bet365 published odds. It doesn't take into account any other variables, constraints or gut feelings. As I have said before, its simplicity suits my simple mind ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Gday Punters Just discovered this Forum and this Thread...top drawer theory Grex...thought Id have a go by using multi bets as follows: Bet 1 take every match (this weekend $18) Bet 2 take first three ($4) Bet 3 take last three ($4) Total outlay $20 ( 6 leg multi $10 and 2x3 leg multis @$5) Keep up the great work Grex :clap aarr magoo - youve done it again !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi, Mr Magoo, and :welcome to Punters Lounge. I am not sure I fully understand your proposed bets. If by "multis" you mean accumulators, then they are pretty ambitious. If they come in, then Bet 1 should return you at odds of about 22.0 :loon, Bets 2 and 3 at odds of 4.5 and 4.9 respectively. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I am not sure why you have split Bets 2 and 3 simply on listed order, but good luck anyway. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mister magoo Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi Grex Yep, they are accumulators. I thought rather than attempt to group them, I would simply take them in listed order. I might be a bit ambitious, but thats the way I punt. If one of the accas gets up, I at least break even. Taking your strike rate into consideration, over the length of the season, I wouldnt need too many Bet 1's to get up to show more than 33% profit on turnover. Part of my plan was to gradually increase my stake, depending on the success rate gained. If you only had say, three matches to bet on I would just take them all in the one $10 acca... lol mate aarr magoo - youve done it again !! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 25, 2010 Author Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Good luck, Mr Magoo..... how's your eye-sight these days ? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield It looks as though the policy of selecting early odds has paid off again. Current Pinnacle odds on the selections are (Tuesday's odds in brackets): [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Bolton........ 1.59 (1.63) Everton..... 1.58 (1.64) Juventus... 1.69 (1.70) Inter.......... 1.71 (1.77) Cagliari..... 1.64 (1.64) Lazio.......... 1.61 (1.69) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] That's a potential increased yield of 4%.... if they all win ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield As with the over/under thread, some good news and some bad news. The bad news is that BBC's Lawro agrees with the two EP selections :(.... the good news is that Andy Murray also agrees :ok - so there is still hope ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovo.cosmico Posted November 27, 2010 Share Posted November 27, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 30 bets +33% yield Hi Grex, I'm following your threads for some time now and I want to congratolate you on the very nice work your doing. :clap Concerning the Pinnacle odds, I just checked the BF laying odds, and you could have trade it out with profit on all games. Maybee I will have a go at it one of these days...:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 27, 2010 Author Share Posted November 27, 2010 ovo.cosmico;1820258 I'm afraid I'm not into this exchange trading lark.... but good luck if you decide to go for it :ok A very BAD day..... two losers.... let's hope the Italians can rescue the weekend on Sunday :hope Edit... of course, one of the Serie A games is this evening !! No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturnBankYieldBookie100.002520/11/2010EPArsenal23TottenhamH1.6410.00L-10.00168.3727%Pinnacle2620/11/2010EPLiverpool30West HamH1.6110.00W6.13174.5029%Pinnacle2720/11/2010IARoma20UdineseH1.7910.00W7.94182.4431%Pinnacle2820/11/2010IAAC Milan10FiorentinaH1.6010.00W5.95188.3932%Pinnacle2921/11/2010IACatania10BariH1.6710.00W6.67195.0633%Pinnacle3021/11/2010IANapoli41BolognaH1.5310.00W5.30200.3633%Bet3653127/11/2010EPBolton22BlackpoolH1.6310.00L-10.00190.3629%Pinnacle3227/11/2010EPEverton14West BromH1.6410.00L-10.00180.3625%Pinnacle3327/11/2010IAJuventusFiorentinaH1.7010.00Pinnacle3428/11/2010IAInterParmaH1.7710.00Pinnacle3528/11/2010IACagliariLecceH1.6410.00Pinnacle3628/11/2010IALazioCataniaH1.6910.00Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeron Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 32 bets +25% yield [quote=Grex;1820448]I'm afraid I'm not into this exchange trading lark.... but good luck if you decide to go for it :ok A very BAD day..... two losers.... let's hope the Italians can rescue the weekend on Sunday :hope Edit... of course, one of the Serie A games is this evening !! No.DateLGEH TeamA TeamBetOddsStakeW/LReturnBankYieldBookie100.002520/11/2010EPArsenal23TottenhamH1.6410.00L-10.00168.3727%Pinnacle2620/11/2010EPLiverpool30West HamH1.6110.00W6.13174.5029%Pinnacle2720/11/2010IARoma20UdineseH1.7910.00W7.94182.4431%Pinnacle2820/11/2010IAAC Milan10FiorentinaH1.6010.00W5.95188.3932%Pinnacle2921/11/2010IACatania10BariH1.6710.00W6.67195.0633%Pinnacle3021/11/2010IANapoli41BolognaH1.5310.00W5.30200.3633%Bet3653127/11/2010EPBolton22BlackpoolH1.6310.00L-10.00190.3629%Pinnacle3227/11/2010EPEverton14West BromH1.6410.00L-10.00180.3625%Pinnacle3327/11/2010IAJuventusFiorentinaH1.7010.00Pinnacle3428/11/2010IAInterParmaH1.7710.00Pinnacle3528/11/2010IACagliariLecceH1.6410.00Pinnacle3628/11/2010IALazioCataniaH1.6910.00Pinnacle[/quote] Juve got tied 1-1... Bad weekend :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 32 bets +25% yield zeron;1820646 Hi, Zeron, and :welcome to Punters Lounge.... and thank you for reminding me about the BAD weekend :sad [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeron Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 32 bets +25% yield Well, I've been following you for a couple of weeks now and seeing the good result I decided to start betting on it this weekend :( It's being bad for both of us ;) At least, Inter is winning 5-2 :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 32 bets +25% yield [quote=zeron;1820857]Well, I've been following you for a couple of weeks now and seeing the good result I decided to start betting on it this weekend :( It's being bad for both of us ;) At least, Inter is winning 5-2 :)[/quote] same here. i only decided to give this system a try from this week, & am on to a bad start :( hopefully things will start turning around with Inter's win :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 32 bets +25% yield Well, it was inevitable.... a disasterous weekend. I say "inevitable", because a yield of 33% was not sustainable. Unfortunately, judging from the above posts, the bad weekend seems to have coincided with a few of you actually putting hard cash on the selections for the first time..... I am sorry. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] So, the latest picture is..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No. Date LGE H Team A Team Bet Odds Stake W/L Return Bank Yield Bookie 100.00 25 20/11/2010 EP Arsenal 23 Tottenham H 1.64 10.00 L -10.00 168.37 27% Pinnacle 26 20/11/2010 EP Liverpool 30 West Ham H 1.61 10.00 W 6.13 174.50 29% Pinnacle 27 20/11/2010 IA Roma 20 Udinese H 1.79 10.00 W 7.94 182.44 31% Pinnacle 28 20/11/2010 IA AC Milan 10 Fiorentina H 1.60 10.00 W 5.95 188.39 32% Pinnacle 29 21/11/2010 IA Catania 10 Bari H 1.67 10.00 W 6.67 195.06 33% Pinnacle 30 21/11/2010 IA Napoli 41 Bologna H 1.53 10.00 W 5.30 200.36 33% Bet365 31 27/11/2010 EP Bolton 22 Blackpool H 1.63 10.00 L -10.00 190.36 29% Pinnacle 32 27/11/2010 EP Everton 14 West Brom H 1.64 10.00 L -10.00 180.36 25% Pinnacle 33 27/11/2010 IA Juventus 11 Fiorentina H 1.70 10.00 L -10.00 170.36 21% Pinnacle 34 28/11/2010 IA Inter 52 Parma H 1.77 10.00 W 7.69 178.05 23% Pinnacle 35 28/11/2010 IA Cagliari 32 Lecce H 1.64 10.00 W 6.37 184.42 24% Pinnacle 36 28/11/2010 IA Lazio 11 Catania H 1.69 10.00 L -10.00 174.42 21% Pinnacle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 36 bets +21% yield Hopefully thats all the bad one's out of the way :lol Never mind Grex , there's aways next week :ok onwards and upwards.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 28, 2010 Author Share Posted November 28, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 36 bets +21% yield Thanks for the optimistic words, JTW...... I looked through my records for the past 7 seasons, and there has never been such a bad round of matches :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horizon Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 36 bets +21% yield Hi Grex-Looks like i have joined the first timers club -been taking a watching brief the last few weeks-then in we go-good to hear that dissaster only strikes once in 7 yrs -like a broken mirror. But i was also on the o/u selections -so that saved the day. Was doing some cals earlier -staking 10% each round(w/end) over the 36 bets -Bank £183.5 as opposed level stakes £10 =£174.42-unsure as to yield Not sure whay you dropped this last season. Anyway thank you for all your hard work -system looks very promising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 36 bets +21% yield Hey Grex, I believe good and bad runs are part and parcel of betting. As long as the good runs outnumber the bad runs, it's all good! The strike rate is still very decent! :ok Hope Blackburn will 'contribute' to the winnings this weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 36 bets +21% yield Thanks for the words of encouragement, Relf. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Regarding Blackburn..... yes, they currently qualify at odds of 1.74 against Wolves. For me, the odds are way too short, after the mauling they received at Old Trafford on Saturday. But I suppose they are a different proposition at home.... and Wolves certainly don't have a "Berbatov" :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 [quote=Horizon;1821269]Was doing some calcs earlier -staking 10% each round(w/end) over the 36 bets -Bank £183.5 as opposed level stakes £10 =£174.42-unsure as to yield Not sure whay you dropped this last season. Anyway thank you for all your hard work -system looks very promising.[/quote] Thanks, Horizon. I "dropped" the 10% bank system because it was marginally out-performed by the flat stakes system last season. I think you will find that if you calculate the yield (which is the most important measure of success) from the 10% bank staking plan, it will be significantly lower than the flat stakes plan..... although the current bank would be higher, the amount staked over the 36 bets would be a lot higher. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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