Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Grex]

I have tried, tested and failed with a few of my systems on this Forum in the past. But, now I’m going to make another attempt to show consistent (but unremarkable) profit….. after all, that’s what the game is all about. The system has 2 elements. First, bets are placed on short-odds home favourites. Nothing new, you say…. of course, simply betting on home favourites at odds of 1.4 is never going to make you a profit. However, I did a lot of back-testing with data from the magnificent football-data site and found that betting at level stakes on home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (Bet365 odds) gave you the best results – there was one amazing run of 24 wins :loon in 2005-06 Premier League season. Further analysis revealed that the English Premiership and Italy Serie A are the best performers…. perhaps because both leagues have a top core of 4 to 5 teams who have made an art-form out of consistently winning their home matches. I know the “value bets” pundits will be tearing their hair out….. you can never get value bets on the likes of Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United, AC Milan, Inter etc. But just wait until you see the second element of the system…. the Staking Plan…. then you’ll be tearing your hair out even more! The Staking Plan is based on even return per bet i.e your stake at odds of 1.2 will be double your stake at odds of 1.4. But, wait for it, it includes a “loss recovery” system:wall. I know….“never works…”, “you will always go bust eventually…”. However, this is a very conservative or mild loss recovery system – if you have a losing bet, you try to recover a percentage of the losses on the next round of bets. If you lose again, you write-off the losses and start again. I have back-tested the system over 6 seasons and it has consistently produced yields of between 8% and 12%. Not very dramatic, but better than a kick in the teeth. So to summarise: 1.selections will be on Premier League and Serie A matches with home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (published Bet365 odds) 2.the initial bank will be £1,000 with stakes calculated to return 1% of the running bank 3.when a loss occurs, the stakes on the next round of matches will be increased by a “secret” factor, in an attempt to win back some of the previous loss 4.if a second consecutive loss(es) occurs, the loss will be written-off, and the stakes will return to achieve a profit of 1% of the running bank. One final rule… don’t start the system until 5 matches of the season have been played. Serie A still has 2 more rounds to go, however, the English Premiership has now reached that target. So the first selections will be on this weekend’s EPL matches and, surprise surprise, it looks as though Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United and Aston Villa :unsure will qualify. I’ll be back later to confirm……. REMEMBER…. this is only a paper trial.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=3]OK… here goes:hope. I made an error with my original post:spank – the odds limits are 1.45 to 1.80. The “loss-recovery” staking plan:loon remains the same (let’s hope we won’t need it for some time!) There are just the 3 selections for the week-end, as detailed below (I used to be able to copy-and-paste beautiful colourful tables from Excel, but it doesn't seem to work now... perhaps somebody can offer some advice).... so, in beautiful black-and-white[/SIZE][/FONT]

No.

Date

Lge

H Team

Result

A Team

Odds

Target Profit

Stake

Return

Bank

Yield

1,000.00

1

20/09/2009

EPL

Man United

Man City

1.57

10.00

17.54

2

20/09/2009

EPL

Everton

Blackburn

1.80

10.00

12.50

3

20/09/2009

EPL

Chelsea

Tottenham

1.50

10.00

20.00

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A good start….. even if we had to rely on the Manchester derby referee playing 200 minutes of added time :lol

No.

Date

Lge

H Team

Result

A Team

Odds

Profit Target

Stake

W/L

P/L

Strike Rate

Bank

Yield

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1,000.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]20/09/2009[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

EPL

Man United

4

3

Man City

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1.57[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]17.54[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

W

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]100%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1,010.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]57.0%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]2[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]20/09/2009[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

EPL

Everton

3

0

Blackburn

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1.80[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]12.50[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

W

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]100%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1,020.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]66.6%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]3[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]20/09/2009[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

EPL

Chelsea

3

0

Tottenham

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1.50[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]20.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

W

[RIGHT][RIGHT]10.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]100%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]1,030.00[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

[RIGHT][RIGHT]59.9%[/RIGHT][/RIGHT]

So, the next round of bets will not have to rely on the :loon Loss :loon Recovery :loon System ;).... thanks God.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Well, this is a really exciting thread...... for this weekend it looks as though there are only 2 qualifying selections..... but it's quality that counts, not quantity ;). Man City may possibly make it for their Monday game, but at the moment the odds are slightly below the threshold. So the magnificent TWO...........

No.		Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
																							1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland				Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli				Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89

[a1ehouse]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Makes sense to build a betting portfolio of a number of decent systems rather than whacking the bank on a rank outsider cos of a gut feeling! GL mate - for me its all about steady growth, so consistency is key.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks, A1ehouse, for your words of encouragement........ as you say, consistency is the key, and that's why I selected the English Premier and Italy Serie A.... during back-testing, both these leagues demonstrated the most consistent performance in terms of hot home favourites. You would think that Spain, with the likes of Ronaldo (oops) Madrid and Barcelona, and Germany with Bayern Munich and Schalke would also be contenders..... but it's surprising how often Madrid and Bayern have bad home results. Anyway, let's see how it goes.... we got off to a good start last weekend, but I think I'll give it a bit longer before I pack in my day-job ;)[/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites The good start continues, with both Sunderland and Napoli obliging. Interesting to note that the 5 selections to date all went “over” on total goals….. I imagine it’s only a fluke, I’ll look at the historical data to see if there’s any merit in following this option. Tomorrow’s Man City game still stubbornly refuses to reach the minimum odds threshold of 1.45, so it looks like that’s it until next weekend. Confirmation of the results to date………

No.		Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
																							1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		5	2	Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%

[a1ehouse]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites On at expekt for 1.45 Grex

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for the tip, a1ehouse. The "system" was developed using Bet365 historical odds.... so, to be consistent, I should stick to their published odds (which are currently 1.44). I'll look again nearer the KO, but if there's no change I will leave the game out. But thanks, anyway.

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A good start to what could be an interesting system GREX :ok Have you considered doing Doubles if the strike-rate is high enough ?

[ultravires]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Congratulations on your good start Grex. I know you have done all your previous research and come up with Serie A as your second league to back. I am not too sure about this as a choice. Of course within reason, anyone can beat anybody else in football, but Serie A in particular has yet to settle down this season. I wish you all the best, and will follow with interest.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=2]jtw1;1487741 Thanks, jtw1...... no, I'm not a big fan of any multiple bets.... certainly, if the system kept up this strike-rate, then doubles would be an obvious choice..... but, to be honest, the good start is just a flash-in-the-pan.... it can't keep up 100% strike rate.... or we would all be millionaires :loon[/SIZE][/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites ultravires;1487751 Thanks for your good wishes, Ultravires…. Serie A certainly had some strange results over the weekend….. not Napoli fortunately. I found during back-testing that results settled down after 4 or 5 rounds of each season…. let’s hope the consistency continues. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=2] [/SIZE][/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Well, odds on Man City suddenly shot up to 1.5 on Bet365, so the match is selected....... :hope

No.		Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
																							1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		4	2	Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%
6		28/09/2009			EPL	Man City				West Ham	1.50		10.30		20.60

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Man City oblige… and, apparently it should have been more comfortable than the score-line suggests. And yet another selection coincidently goes “over”….. that's 6 out of 6 for the “overs”. I did check out whether there is anything in this, but, for the past two seasons, there was no pattern…. so it’s just a fluke. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]	Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
						[SIZE=2]																	1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		4	2	Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%
6		28/09/2009			EPL	Man City		3	1	West Ham	1.50		10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%		1,060.90		59.8%

At the moment, it looks as though there could be 4 selections for next weekend…. 3 of them from Serie A. :loon I’ll post on Friday. :ok

[a1ehouse]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good results so far mate :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites a1ehouse;1488599 [FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=2]Thanks, A1ehouse....... with emphasis on the "so far". Yes, it's been an amazing start.... but, of course it can not last..... I have a feeling that next weekend will see the end of the 100% run..... asking for (possibly) three Serie A matches to go the way of the home favourites is asking too much :D [/SIZE][/FONT]

[AJ]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Is this different from Data Punters legend of red hot soccer favs ?

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Not sure, AJ.... I looked at the thread but could not see any "concrete" system rules...... odds went as low as 1.15 :unsure [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Only 3 this weekend..... Inter's odds seem to be fixed at 1.44, so they don't quite meet the minimum odds criterion of 1.45.....

No.		Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
																							1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		4	2	Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%
6		28/09/2009			EPL	Man City		3	1	West Ham	1.50		10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%		1,060.90		59.8%
7		04/10/2009			EPL	Everton				Stoke	1.57		10.61		18.61
8		04/10/2009			IA	Roma				Napoli	1.70		10.61		15.16
9		04/10/2009			IA	Sampdoria				Parma	1.65		10.61		16.32

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1488801]Yes, it's been an amazing start.... but, of course it can not last..... I have a feeling that next weekend will see the end of the 100% run..... asking for (possibly) three Serie A matches to go the way of the home favourites is asking too much :D [/quote] Well, I told you it couldn’t last….. only 1 win out of 3 today. So, next weekend will see the introduction of the Loss Recovery Staking System :loon [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]	[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]	[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]		[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]	[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]		[B]Bank[/B]		[B]Yield[/B]
						[SIZE=2][COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																	1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57		10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80		10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50		10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		4	2	Wolverhampton	1.72		10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61		10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%
6		28/09/2009			EPL	Man City		3	1	West Ham	1.50		10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%		1,060.90		59.8%
7		04/10/2009			EPL	[COLOR=#ff0000]Everton [/COLOR]		1	1	Stoke	1.57		10.61		18.61			[COLOR=#ff0000]L[/COLOR]	-18.61		86%		1,042.29		35.1%
8		04/10/2009			IA	[COLOR=#ff0000]Roma[/COLOR]		2	1	Napoli	1.70		10.61		15.16			[COLOR=#ff0000]W[/COLOR]	10.61		88%		1,052.90		39.0%
9		04/10/2009			IA	[COLOR=#ff0000]Sampdoria[/COLOR]		1	1	Parma	1.65		10.61		16.32			[COLOR=#ff0000]L[/COLOR]	-16.32		78%		1,036.58		24.1%
						[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites OK….. back to league business. Last round, the system lost €34.94 which triggers the “loss recovery” system to come into play :loon. Full loss-recovery systems are destined to fail eventually. However, as I explained before, this is a very conservative system and only attempts to recover the square-root of the previous round’s losses, spread equally between the next round’s selections. Why the square-root?..... to be honest, I haven’t a clue….. all I know is that, during back-testing over 4 seasons, this factor consistently produced the best results. So this weekend, we have to recover the square-root of €34.95 i.e. €5.91, spread over 5 selections…. €1.18 per selection. Any of the loss that is not recovered this weekend will be written off. Also, although the selections will be based on Bet365 odds (1.45 to 1.80), the odds quoted will be the best offered between Bet365 and Pinnacle. So, the selections, and stakes, for this weekend are……

No.		Date			Lge	H Team		Result		A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate		Bank		Yield
																									1,000.00
1		20/09/2009			EPL	Man United		4	3	Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%		1,010.00		57.0%
2		20/09/2009			EPL	Everton		3	0	Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%		1,020.00		66.6%
3		20/09/2009			EPL	Chelsea		3	0	Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%		1,030.00		59.9%
4		27/09/2009			EPL	Sunderland		4	2	Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%		1,040.30		62.6%
5		27/09/2009			IA	Napoli		2	1	Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%		1,050.60		62.3%
6		28/09/2009			EPL	Man City		3	1	West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%		1,060.90		59.8%
7		04/10/2009			EPL	Everton		1	1	Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%		1,042.29		35.1%
8		04/10/2009			IA	Roma		2	1	Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%		1,052.90		39.0%
9		04/10/2009			IA	Sampdoria		1	1	Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%		1,036.58		24.1%
10		17/10/2009			IA	Juventus				Fiorentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62												Pinnacle
11		18/10/2009			EPL	Blackburn				Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44												Bet365
12		18/10/2009			IA	Napoli				Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63												Pinnacle
13		18/10/2009			IA	Udinese				Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59												Pinnacle
14		19/10/2009			EPL	Fulham				Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18												Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Not a very inspiring set of results :(...... let's hope Fulham can improve things tomorrow :hope

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham					Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Fulham produced the goods tonight….. so not a bad weekend overall :ok. Next weekend, the €1.18 attempted recovery on both Juventus and Udinese will be written-off, and we will attempt to recover the “square-root” of the Bank Profit Target lost on those 2 teams i.e €20.74…. square root €4.55…….. hope that makes sense :unsure

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1505709 I made a mistake with my calculations..... the attempted recovery on last weekend's two losers (Juventus and Udinese) is, in fact, €30.21…… square root €5.50. So the stakes for tomorrow’s two selections are……

[B]No.[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1]	[B]Date[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1]	[B]Lge[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]H Team[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]Result[/B]		[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]Recovery Target[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]Bank Profit Target[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]Stake[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1]	[B]W/L[/B]	[B]P/L[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1][B]Strike Rate[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1]	[B]Bank[/B]	[/SIZE]	[SIZE=1]	[B]Yield[/B]		[/SIZE]
								[FONT=Comic Sans MS][SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000]																					1,000.00					[/SIZE]
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		[B]Man City[/B]		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham					Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24														Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria					Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69														Pinnacle

I'll be back tomorrow with Sunday's selections :hope [/FONT][/COLOR][FONT=Verdana][/FONT]

[TheLubet]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, This looks, sounds, reads and feels like a good system. Any yield better than putting it in the bank is ok by me. So i have to show you some support and good luck. The Lubet

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for the support, TheLubet (where do some of you guys get these names :lol)...... by the way, LOVE your avatar and images :eek

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Only 50% success which, at these odds, is not good enough. Anyway, Sunday's selections......

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham		0	1		Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24			L	-29.24		67%			1,011.78			4.5%		Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		4	1		Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69			W	13.16		69%			1,024.94			8.7%		Pinnacle
17			25/10/2009			EPL		Man City					Fulham	1.49		2.40		10.25		25.82														Pinnacle
18			25/10/2009			IA		Fiorentina					Napoli	1.80		2.40		10.25		15.81														Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 0% success rate for Sunday...... so the system is now in negative territory. But are we dis-heartened?..... YES.... especially with Serie A. I tnink it was a mistake including the Italian League.... but I shall persevere for a bit longer. The current situation......

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham		0	1		Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24			L	-29.24		67%			1,011.78			4.5%		Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		4	1		Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69			W	13.16		69%			1,024.94			8.7%		Pinnacle
17			25/10/2009			EPL		Man City		2	2		Fulham	1.49		2.40		10.25		25.82			L	-25.82		65%			999.12			-0.3%		Pinnacle
18			25/10/2009			IA		Fiorentina		0	1		Napoli	1.80		2.40		10.25		15.81			L	-15.81		61%			983.31			-5.1%		Bet365

[TheLubet]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Q. Are the odds you are working with a hinderence for this system to be a success. Q. What were your back testing results like. Q. Loss recovery sq-root system for last 4 bets = 70.87 = 8.42 . It does'nt add up for me. I would love for you to prove me wrong. I've started a system (REZ) on glory hunters along similar lines eg. loss recovery that's why im taking an added interest in you, were thinking along similar lines. Im working on the loss recovery aspect without breaking me. The Lubet.