Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[saplingg]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Congrats on two overwhelming results tonight. Have you ever toyed with the idea of working in an asian handicap into your bets? E.g. home favourite -0.5 or -1.5 depending on the odds etc.

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Congrats on the full house this weekend!!! :clap:clap

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield saplingg;1812338 Thanks for the AH suggestion... I will look into this :ok relf;1812403 Yes, it was a good weekend..... I resisted the temptation of using Merlin's "FULL HOUSE".... or Muppet's "BOOM, BOOM" ;)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Grex;1812503 I have had a quick "play", and it seems that the 1X2 and AH systems produce more-or-less identical results. I had to guess a little bit with the AH odds, but I think they are in the right field. Anyway, thanks again for the suggestion, and I shall continue to keep an eye on it..... it is still very early days, so the performance may change :ok

	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield			Bookie	AH	H odds		W/L	Return	Bank	Yield
																																			1,000.00												1000.00
	1			03/10/2010			EP			Chelsea			2	0			Arsenal			H			1.75			10.00			W			7.50			1,007.50			75%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		W	10.00	1010.00	100%
	2			16/10/2010			EP			Newcastle			2	2			Wigan			H			1.73			10.00			L			-10.00			997.50			-13%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		L	-10.00	1000.00	0%
	3			16/10/2010			IA			AC Milan			3	1			Chievo			H			1.47			10.00			W			4.72			1,002.22			7%			Pinnacle	-1	1.90		W	9.00	1009.00	30%
	4			17/10/2010			IA			Palermo			4	1			Bologna			H			1.64			10.00			W			6.41			1,008.63			22%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.90		W	9.00	1018.00	45%
	5			23/10/2010			IA			Fiorentina			2	1			Bari			H			1.75			10.00			W			7.52			1,016.15			32%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		½W	5.00	1023.00	46%
	6			24/10/2010			EP			Liverpool			2	1			Blackburn			H			1.66			10.00			W			6.60			1,022.75			38%			Bet365	-0.75	1.95		½W	4.75	1027.75	46%
	7			24/10/2010			IA			Genoa			1	0			Catania			H			1.81			10.00			W			8.06			1,030.81			44%			Pinnacle	-0.5	1.81		W	8.10	1035.85	51%
	8			24/10/2010			IA			Lazio			2	1			Cagliari			H			1.75			10.00			W			7.52			1,038.33			48%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		½W	5.00	1040.85	51%
	9			30/10/2010			EP			Everton			1	0			Stoke			H			1.57			10.00			W			5.70			1,044.03			49%			Bet365	-1	1.96		P	0.00	1040.85	45%
	10			30/10/2010			EP			Man United			2	0			Tottenham			H			1.62			10.00			W			6.17			1,050.20			50%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.88		W	8.80	1049.65	50%
	11			31/10/2010			EP			Aston Villa			0	0			Birmingham			H			1.83			10.00			L			-10.00			1,040.20			37%			Pinnacle	-0.5	1.83		L	-10.00	1039.65	36%
	12			06/11/2010			EP			Blackburn			2	1			Wigan			H			1.83			10.00			W			8.26			1,048.46			40%			Pinnacle	-0.5	1.83		W	8.30	1047.95	40%
	13			07/11/2010			IA			Fiorentina			1	0			Chievo			H			1.76			10.00			W			7.63			1,056.09			43%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		½W	5.00	1052.95	41%
	14			07/11/2010			IA			Napoli			2	0			Parma			H			1.66			10.00			W			6.58			1,062.67			45%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.95		W	9.50	1062.45	45%
	15			07/11/2010			IA			Sampdoria			0	0			Catania			H			1.91			10.00			L			-10.00			1,052.67			35%			Pinnacle	-0.5	1.91		L	-10.00	1052.45	35%
	16			09/11/2010			EP			Tottenham			1	1			Sunderland			H			1.57			10.00			L			-10.00			1,042.67			27%			Bet365	-1	1.96		L	-10.00	1042.45	27%
	17			10/11/2010			EP			Aston Villa			3	2			Blackpool			H			1.63			10.00			W			6.33			1,049.00			29%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.90		½W	4.50	1046.95	28%
	18			10/11/2010			EP			Everton			1	1			Bolton			H			1.65			10.00			L			-10.00			1,039.00			22%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.93		L	-10.00	1036.95	21%
	19			10/11/2010			IA			AC Milan			3	1			Palermo			H			1.59			10.00			W			5.92			1,044.92			24%			Pinnacle	-1	2.00		W	10.00	1046.95	25%
	20			10/11/2010			IA			Genoa			1	0			Bologna			H			1.73			10.00			W			7.25			1,052.17			26%			Pinnacle	-0.75	2.00		½W	5.00	1051.95	26%
	21			13/11/2010			IA			Fiorentina			1	0			Cesena			H			1.51			10.00			W			5.13			1,057.30			27%			Pinnacle	-1	1.90		P	0.00	1051.95	25%
	22			13/11/2010			EP			Tottenham			4	2			Blackburn			H			1.65			10.00			W			6.54			1,063.84			29%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.93		W	9.30	1061.25	28%
	23			14/11/2010			IA			Palermo			3	1			Catania			H			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,072.24			31%			Pinnacle	-0.50	1.84		W	8.40	1069.65	30%
	24			14/11/2010			IA			Udinese			4	0			Lecce			H			1.61			10.00			W			6.13			1,078.37			33%			Pinnacle	-0.75	1.93		W	9.30	1078.95	33%

[Boulder5111]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Absolutely superb results - well done :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Thanks Boulder..... but I think there is a large element of luck in the performance so far. It will go pear-shaped sooner or later..... doom, doom :sad

[zapbrann81]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Grex, Only just dropped in on this thread, but for future 'analysis' you can use www.betexplorer.com for past odds. Has Asian Handicaps and over/unders etc. Very useful! Carry on with the good work. Zap.

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Grex;1812788 Have faith sir :lol can't have you turning into Private Frazer from Dads Army:rollin:rollin ps - keep keeping it simple

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield [quote=zapbrann81;1812800]Only just dropped in on this thread, but for future 'analysis' you can use www.betexplorer.com for past odds. Has Asian Handicaps and over/unders etc. Very useful! Zap.[/quote] Thanks, Zap. I had a quick look at the site.... very impressive... but I couldn't find the archived AH odds :\ [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] jtw1;1812803 Showing your age there, JTW.... mind you, you're probably referring to the re-runs..... I remember watching the original series in the early '70s :D

[zapbrann81]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Grex, Click on the 'Results' link (top left). Then pick your sport from the tabs available under the title 'Yesterdays results'. If you pick Soccer right now, then the site will show you results from the Albanian 1st league (would you believe?!). Click on the match you want to look at and a pop-up box will appear with the odds available at K.O within it. Again, clicking on the tabs at the top within the box will show you odds for various bets (1X2, O/U, AH, DNB & DC). Regards, Zap.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Thanks for the information, Zap.... I will look into it. :ok [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I have looked at the early odds for the EP and IA, and I think some will drop during the week (particularly Pinnacle... again there are some big differences between Pinnacle and Bet365). So, I am going to take the risk of posting early :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield			Bookie
																																			1,000.00
	21			13/11/2010			IA			Fiorentina			1	0			Cesena			H			1.51			10.00			W			5.13			1,057.30			27%			Pinnacle
	22			13/11/2010			EP			Tottenham			4	2			Blackburn			H			1.65			10.00			W			6.54			1,063.84			29%			Pinnacle
	23			14/11/2010			IA			Palermo			3	1			Catania			H			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,072.24			31%			Pinnacle
	24			14/11/2010			IA			Udinese			4	0			Lecce			H			1.61			10.00			W			6.13			1,078.37			33%			Pinnacle
	25			20/11/2010			EP			Arsenal							Tottenham			H			1.64			10.00															Pinnacle
	26			20/11/2010			IA			Roma							Udinese			H			1.79			10.00															Pinnacle
	27			20/11/2010			IA			AC Milan							Fiorentina			H			1.60			10.00															Pinnacle
	28			21/11/2010			IA			Catania							Bari			H			1.67			10.00															Pinnacle
	29			21/11/2010			IA			Napoli							Bologna			H			1.53			10.00															Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield An additional selection for Saturday (Liverpool - West Ham)..... can't understand how I missed this one first time round :unsure [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.

Date

LGE

H Team

A Team

Bet

Odds

Stake

W/L

Return

Bank

Yield

Bookie

1,000.00

21

13/11/2010

IA

Fiorentina

1

0

Cesena

H

1.51

10.00

W

5.13

1,057.30

27%

Pinnacle

22

13/11/2010

EP

Tottenham

4

2

Blackburn

H

1.65

10.00

W

6.54

1,063.84

29%

Pinnacle

23

14/11/2010

IA

Palermo

3

1

Catania

H

1.84

10.00

W

8.40

1,072.24

31%

Pinnacle

24

14/11/2010

IA

Udinese

4

0

Lecce

H

1.61

10.00

W

6.13

1,078.37

33%

Pinnacle

25

20/11/2010

EP

Arsenal

Tottenham

H

1.64

10.00

Pinnacle

26

20/11/2010

EP

Liverpool

West Ham

H

1.61

10.00

Pinnacle

27

20/11/2010

IA

Roma

Udinese

H

1.79

10.00

Pinnacle

28

20/11/2010

IA

AC Milan

Fiorentina

H

1.60

10.00

Pinnacle

29

21/11/2010

IA

Catania

Bari

H

1.67

10.00

Pinnacle

30

21/11/2010

IA

Napoli

Bologna

H

1.53

10.00

Bet365

[Grex]

Just realised why I didn't spot the Liverpool game when I made the first post on Tuesday.... at that time, Liverpool were quoted on Bet365 at 1.44 and, therefore, did not qualify (the minimum cut-off is 1.45). Now they have slipped to 1.57 on Bet365 and 1.61 on Pinnacle (the Gerrard factor, perhaps). This is the problem with posting early.... I think I will stick to 24 hours before K.O. in future :ok

[Grex]

Grex;1812874 Well, overall, posting early does seem to have reaped minor rewards. Current odds with Pinnacle on the selections (with Tuesday's odds in brackets) are: Arsenal..... 1.64 (1.64) Roma.......... 1.84 (1.79).. but Roma are still 1.80 on Bet365, therefore would still qualify AC Milan.. 1.59 (1.60) Catania..... 1.60 (1.67) Napoli....... 1.50 (1.53)

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Started with a greedy Saturday treble :cheers

[lamas1984]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield liverpool isnt too good and without gerrard... hmmm dont know

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield jtw1;1815379 Which one did you leave out..... Liverpool ? lamas1984;1815387 No, I don't know either.... unfortunately, the system is very simple and doesn't take into account missing key players etc. :unsure

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Grex;1815427 Roma , just a tad over the odds limit for me.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield jtw1;1815379 It doesn't pay to be "greedy"..... the first leg of your acca looked safe at half-time.... but what an amazing fight-back by Spurs :clap [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Not good for the "system" either :\.... I will post the updated table after this evening's Milan game

[lamas1984]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield One question... How can i check the yield in my bets? Sorry about my noob

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield lamas1984;1815807 Calculate the profit (or loss).... divide by the amount staked... and express as a percentage. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] e.g. amount staked 100... returned 120.... therefore, profit = 20.... 20/100 = 0.20 = 20% (sorry for using such a simple example.... my mental arithmetic is a bit rusty these days.... excel does it all for me :tongue2) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

[lamas1984]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield :clap No worry, thanks. One goal for Milan! In excell what is the name of the formula to make profit/stake???

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Without knowing the layout of your Excel sheet, it is difficult to explain. Basically you use "=" (profit cell) "/" (stake cell). To be honest, if you are asking this kind of question about Excel, you may be better using a normal calculator !

[davidc]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield [QUOTE=lamas1984;1815828]:clap No worry, thanks. One goal for Milan! In excell what is the name of the formula to make profit/stake???[/QUOTE] Insert this formula into the cell where you want your yield to be and then format the cell to 'Percentage': =SUM(A1/B1) Cell A1 (in the above formula) is your total profit or loss and cell B1 (in the above formula) is your total amount staked. Change the cell letter and number to suit the layout of your sheet. GL

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 24 bets +33% yield Thanks for explaining it more clearly, David. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Only Arsenal's skill at throwing away a half-time 2-0 lead messed up a perfect set of results (but congratulation to Spurs anyway ;)). The return on the day was 25%, which is not bad. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I have changed the starting Bank from 1000 units to 100 units, in line with the suggestion in the Forum "rules". Obviously the yield remains the same, but it makes the comparative Bank balance look more impressive (nearly doubled). :eek [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] So the system continues to perform well. I really can not explain this phenomenon.... the system doesn't take into account "value".... it just selects games based on the bookies' odds. But it performed well last season (12% yield) and performed consistently well over the 5 back-tested seasons. Just one of them things, I suppose. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I am travelling tomorrow, so won't be able to update the table with Sunday's results until Monday evening at the earliest. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

[/SIZE]	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			[SIZE=1]Yield			Bookie
																																			100.00
	21			13/11/2010			IA			Fiorentina			1	0			Cesena			H			1.51			10.00			W			5.13			157.30			27%			Pinnacle
	22			13/11/2010			EP			Tottenham			4	2			Blackburn			H			1.65			10.00			W			6.54			163.84			29%			Pinnacle
	23			14/11/2010			IA			Palermo			3	1			Catania			H			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			172.24			31%			Pinnacle
	24			14/11/2010			IA			Udinese			4	0			Lecce			H			1.61			10.00			W			6.13			178.37			33%			Pinnacle
	25			20/11/2010			EP			Arsenal			2	3			Tottenham			H			1.64			10.00			L			-10.00			168.37			27%			Pinnacle
	26			20/11/2010			EP			Liverpool			3	0			West Ham			H			1.61			10.00			W			6.13			174.50			29%			Pinnacle
	27			20/11/2010			IA			Roma			2	0			Udinese			H			1.79			10.00			W			7.94			182.44			31%			Pinnacle
	28			20/11/2010			IA			AC Milan			1	0			Fiorentina			H			1.60			10.00			W			5.95			188.39			32%			Pinnacle
	29			21/11/2010			IA			Catania							Bari			H			1.67			10.00															Pinnacle
	30			21/11/2010			IA			Napoli							Bologna			H			1.53			10.00															Bet365

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

[lamas1984]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield Thanks Grex and davidc, its working well now :cheers

[saplingg]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield You are genius ! This week I followed you only on the Italian bets as I feel Arsenal v Tottenham and Liverpool v West Ham are both very volatile games, especially the first one could really swing either way. 84th minute Catania goal :nana Have u had a look at your Italian games strike rate? I think it's almost perfect!

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield :hope for Napoli to complete the Sunday double ;)

[bluemanc]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield Can't fault ya ! All bow down to the king of the shorts ! Well done! :cheers

[jtw1]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 28 bets +32% yield jtw1;1816318 4-1 :clap A pity about ARSENAL but otherwise another profitable weekend . Well done again Grex :notworthy