Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Truly "unbelievable", Relf..... the Roma result made it 13 wins out of the last 14 selections :loon:dude. Probably today we will come down to earth with a [B]BUMP :unsure [/B][/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Not a full house but it's still a great week I'm sure! :clap Got 3 out of 3 because I didn't take Chievo (it was 1.83 when I placed my bets), but then again I missed out on Blackburn-Hull due to the same reason earlier. :rollin

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1605481 No, Chievo let the side down..... oh well, at these odds you have to accept the occasional loss ;)

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
70			06/02/2010			IA		Palermo		2	1		Parma	1.80		1.28		11.94		16.53			W		13.22		71%			1,207.06			17.1%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
71			07/02/2010			EPL		Birmingham		2	1		Wolves	1.85		1.28		11.94		15.55			W		13.22		71%			1,220.28			18.0%			20.9%			21.0%		Pinnacle
72			07/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea		2	0		Arsenal	1.86		1.28		11.94		15.37			W		13.22		72%			1,233.50			18.8%			21.8%			22.0%		Pinnacle
73			09/02/2010			EPL		Man City		2	0		Bolton	1.46		0.00		12.34		26.83			W		12.34		72%			1,245.84			19.4%			22.2%			22.4%		Pinnacle
74			09/02/2010			EPL		Fulham		3	0		Burnley	1.74		0.00		12.34		16.68			W		12.34		73%			1,258.18			20.1%			22.9%			23.2%		Pinnacle
75			10/02/2010			EPL		Blackburn		1	0		Hull	1.88		0.00		12.58		14.30			W		12.58		73%			1,270.76			20.8%			23.7%			24.1%		Pinnacle
76			12/02/2010			IA		Milan		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		Roma		4	1		Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		74%			1,296.30			22.1%			24.9%			25.4%		Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		Chievo		0	1		Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04			L		-16.04		73%			1,280.26			20.7%			23.2%			23.5%		Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		Juventus		3	2		Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		73%			1,293.09			21.4%			23.9%			24.3%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Looks as though there won't be any more selections until next weekend :cry:cry [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites .... and 3 for the weekend.... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
76			12/02/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Milan		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		Roma		4	1		Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		74%			1,296.30			22.1%			24.9%			25.4%		Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		Chievo		0	1		Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04			L		-16.04		73%			1,280.26			20.7%			23.2%			23.5%		Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		Juventus		3	2		Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		73%			1,293.09			21.4%			23.9%			24.3%		Pinnacle
80			20/02/2010			EPL		West Ham					Hull	1.77		1.34		12.93		18.53																					Pinnacle
81			20/02/2010			IA		Inter					Sampdoria	1.55		1.34		12.93		25.95																					Pinnacle
82			21/02/2010			IA		Fiorentina					Livorno	1.66		1.34		12.93		21.62																					Bet365

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Comfortable West Ham victory. The strike rate for EPL this year is PHENOMENAL! :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1610915 Absolutely..... unfortunately, Inter couldn't produce the goods.... mind you, they did play nearly half the game with a 2-man disadvantage.... I will have to come up with a system that takes into account red cards ;). Let's hope Fiorentina get us back on track tomorrow :hope

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
76			12/02/2010			IA		Milan		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		Roma		4	1		Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		74%			1,296.30			22.1%			24.9%			25.4%		Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		Chievo		0	1		Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04			L		-16.04		73%			1,280.26			20.7%			23.2%			23.5%		Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		Juventus		3	2		Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		73%			1,293.09			21.4%			23.9%			24.3%		Pinnacle
80			20/02/2010			EPL		West Ham		3	0		Hull	1.77		1.34		12.93		18.53			W		14.27		73%			1,307.36			22.1%			24.6%			25.0%		Pinnacle
81			20/02/2010			IA		Inter		0	0		Sampdoria	1.55		1.34		12.93		25.95			L		-25.95		73%			1,281.42			19.9%			23.0%			23.3%		Pinnacle
82			21/02/2010			IA		Fiorentina					Livorno	1.66		1.34		12.93		21.62																					Bet365

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This time, the red cards swung into our favour as Fiorentina scored the winner against 10 men Livorno. Almost thought they wouldn't make it - thank goodness! A slightly loss this weekend, let's hope things improve the next round.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1611620 According to my figures, a slight profit over the weekend.... however, a reduced overall yield.... but, I'm not too worried :ok

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
76			12/02/2010			IA		Milan		3	2		Udinese	1.57		0.00		12.71		22.30			W		12.71		73%			1,283.47			21.5%			24.2%			24.6%		Pinnacle
77			13/02/2010			IA		Roma		4	1		Palermo	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		74%			1,296.30			22.1%			24.9%			25.4%		Pinnacle
78			14/02/2010			IA		Chievo		0	1		Siena	1.80		0.00		12.83		16.04			L		-16.04		73%			1,280.26			20.7%			23.2%			23.5%		Bet365
79			14/02/2010			IA		Juventus		3	2		Genoa	1.75		0.00		12.83		17.11			W		12.83		73%			1,293.09			21.4%			23.9%			24.3%		Pinnacle
80			20/02/2010			EPL		West Ham		3	0		Hull	1.77		1.34		12.93		18.53			W		14.27		73%			1,307.36			22.1%			24.6%			25.0%		Pinnacle
81			20/02/2010			IA		Inter		0	0		Sampdoria	1.55		1.34		12.93		25.95			L		-25.95		73%			1,281.42			19.9%			23.0%			23.3%		Pinnacle
82			21/02/2010			IA		Fiorentina		2	1		Livorno	1.66		1.34		12.93		21.62			W		14.27		73%			1,295.69			20.6%			23.5%			23.8%		Bet365

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Oops, didn't spot the recovery target column. :wall

[knobbo]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hey Grex, Quality piece of work you are doing here! :clap Have you looked at your staking and was wondering is there more to win if you readjust your stake to 2% of bank after each round of games. Have you looked at this? Oh and how do you apply your attacking factor (Is this something you have done yourself or is it something you have pulled from another website)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=knobbo;1611848]Hey Grex, Have you looked at your staking and was wondering is there more to win if you readjust your stake to 2% of bank after each round of games. Have you looked at this? Oh and how do you apply your attacking factor (Is this something you have done yourself or is it something you have pulled from another website)[/quote] Thanks, Knobbo..... yes, the system would win more if I increased the stake to 2% of bank. It would win even more if I increased it to 5% of bank. The "profit" is not really important... the yield is the important measure of a system's success. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] No, I have not applied any "attacking factor". This is a very simple system, based on odds offered by Bet365. It doesn't take into account theoretical probabilities, or "value".... but it seems to be working at the moment :ok

[knobbo]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi Grex, Ive back dated this season and the last 2 in the premiership. Using a filter of home odds between 1.4 - 1.85 i am coming up with some doubtful ROI's. Can you confirm these? 09/10 - 21% 08/09 - 39% 07/08 - 47% Ive doubled checked and these seem real with the trend indicating that bet365 are tighting up each season. Can you i get your thoughts on this? Cheers

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Welcome to the thread, Knobbo...... very interesting statistics :loon. I'll go through my databases to check them out :ok [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Strictly speaking, there should be only 2 selections this weekend in the odds range of 1.45 - 1.80. However, Chelsea are only just outside the range (1.44 on Bet365, 1.47 on Pinnacle)..... and, in my humble opinion, they are a home banker (considering Man City's recent form), so I've decided to include them :hope.....

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
80			20/02/2010			EPL		West Ham		3	0		Hull	1.77		1.34		12.93		18.53			W		14.27		73%			1,307.36			22.1%			24.6%			25.0%		Pinnacle
81			20/02/2010			IA		Inter		0	0		Sampdoria	1.55		1.34		12.93		25.95			L		-25.95		73%			1,281.42			19.9%			23.0%			23.3%		Pinnacle
82			21/02/2010			IA		Fiorentina		2	1		Livorno	1.66		1.34		12.93		21.62			W		14.27		73%			1,295.69			20.6%			23.5%			23.8%		Bet365
83			27/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea					Man City	1.47		1.62		12.96		31.02																					Pinnacle
84			28/02/2010			IA		Genoa					Bologna	1.67		1.62		12.96		21.76																					Pinnacle
85			28/02/2010			IA		Juventus					Palermo	1.71		1.62		12.96		20.54																					Pinnacle

[Dominator]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=knobbo;1614476]Hi Grex, Ive back dated this season and the last 2 in the premiership. Using a filter of home odds between 1.4 - 1.85 i am coming up with some doubtful ROI's. Can you confirm these? 09/10 - 21% 08/09 - 39% 07/08 - 47% Ive doubled checked and these seem real with the trend indicating that bet365 are tighting up each season. Can you i get your thoughts on this? Cheers[/quote] I think you got some very incorrect data mate. The ROI's you gathered is way way off compared to what I find with the same test. In fact I get 08/09 as a small loss with the filter you use. Its really only this season so far that is very very good and off the norm. Decent profit in 07/08, but nothing near an ROI of 47%.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]I agree with you, Dominator..... for the 08/09 EPL, the system produced a negative yield of 4% :\, for the 07/08 season there was a positive yield of 17.4% :). Perhaps you had better have another look at your figures, Knobbo ;) [/FONT]

[knobbo]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1615378][FONT=Comic Sans MS]I agree with you, Dominator..... for the 08/09 EPL, the system produced a negative yield of 4% :\, for the 07/08 season there was a positive yield of 17.4% :). Perhaps you had better have another look at your figures, Knobbo ;) [/FONT][/quote] Yep, problem with my import into excel. Better cancel the Barbados Hol so, ah nuts!

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 1,568 matches, basically the odds availlabe from football-data.co.uk plus some additional games, so mainly last 5-10 years, mostly top European leagues, where the average home odds were 1.35 to 1.45. Average odds were: - Home win: 1.40 - The draw: 3.99 - Away win: 6.84 Av. overround: 11,1% Matches ended with: - Home win: 1,066 (67,98%) - The draw: 313 (19,96%) - Away win: 189 (12,05%) So betting 1 unit on each match, that is 1,568 units in total, would have returned: - Home win: 1,492.40 units - the draw: 1,248,87 units - Away win: 1,292,76 units It's the overround that kills the punter, as usual. But at least, home win seems to be the optimal choice to place a bet in matches with short priced home favourites

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Interesting statistics, Kumquat Tree :ok. However, I think you can reduce the over-round considerably if you shop around. Also, remember this system spreads the odds net a bit wider (1.45 to 1.80)..... also, the selections are restricted to EPL and Italian Serie A (which have historically produced the best yield).

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1615454 OK then. 12,988 matches it is. 7,448 home wins returned 12,042 units, so minus 7.3% 3,252 draws returned 11,217 units, so minus 13,6% 2,288 away wins returned 11,289 units, so minus 13,1% So plenty to shop around, but at least you're still right to stick with the home win.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]OMG.... you must have an excellent data base :clap One question..... which source of odds are you basing your analysis on (i.e one bookie, or best odds offered) ? Also, is your selection of 12,988 matches :loon restricted to EPL and IA, or all major European leagues ?[/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Ah, it brings memories of the back-testing which I did as well. For those who are interested, you can take a look at this: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/short-priced-home-favourites-90190/index5.html#post1571902 One suggestion of minimising the loss (when there's negative yield) or increasing the yield further (when there's positive yield), with the same set of selections, would be the staking strategy. I have yet to come up with a good strategy so level stakes seems the most straightforward for me right now. Anyway, good luck to your picks!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks for reminding us of your hard work at the beginning of the year, Relf Also, your comments about "level stakes" are supported by comparing the current yield on the various staking systems.... level stakes are currently producing 23.5% yield :loon (more or less the same as 1% bank stakes), whereas my own loss-recovery staking system is lagging behind at 20.6% yield :\[/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I would say all systems are good. Like what everyone has said, this season's home win % has been higher than expected, so it might not be true that level stakes are the best way to go. I wouldn't rule out your loss recovery system to come out tops perhaps in May, or after another season or two.

[Kumquat Tree]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80

[Dominator]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Kumquat Tree;1615731]As I wrote before, the data is mainly those odds and results you can find on the FD webseite. That is around 10 years worth with 5,000+ matches a year. Anyone with some knowledge in Excel makros can merge all those different data sheets into one master sheet within 30 minutes. It's average odds. And of course it cannot be restricted to EPL and Serie A. You would need like 20 seasons just to get 12,000 matches in those two. And then that still all games, not only those with home odds between 1.45 und 1.80[/quote] I have more leagues than just the onces from FD's website, and I can run it on a league basis as well, so lets see if we can kill off the 1.45 to 1.80 fav strategy right away :) Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using AVERAGE odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 92.93% Payback % draw: 85.66% Payback % away win: 84.44% Running it on ALL soccer leagues with 1.45-1.80 home favorite using BEST odds: Matches: 19786 Payback % home win: 95.6% Payback % draw: 88.8% Payback % away win: 91.6% This second set of results is canculated from that you have been taking the best possible price from about 12 different bookies on the outcome you backed. So taking the best price only increase your payback % by around 2% when backing the homewins, which is no suprise since the difference on the short odds will be less than on the underdogs. Now, if we do the same run on English premier league for the last 10 seasons: Matches: 730 Payback % homewin: 101.6% Payback % draw: 83.17% Payback % away win: 68.07% Very tiny profit overall, and its really only due to this current abnormal season. Always taking the best odds will increase your payback by around 3% though. Over the last 10 seasons, 5 of them have been losing season with this strategy with the worst beeing the 2003/2004 season with a payback % of just 86.78%. So looking at history, this strategy will only create a profit about every 2nd season in the premier league. The Serie A is alot worse and is an overall loser over the last 10 seasons, and the sample there is 655 matches fitting the 1.45-1.80. Like kumqut Tree writes, the sample collected over even 10 seasons on this strategy is still pretty small with just 730 matches, and its very likely that it will even out in the bookies favour over the next 250-500 matches. But if you want to bet on something blindly, you're good off by taking the midrange favorites like here, simply because you will have a much higher payback %. The reason could probably pretty straight forward, and its because its the 2nd best teams in these leagues that doesn't get so much attention from the punters, so the odds does not have to be as inflated like teams like Inter, AC Milan, Man Utd, Chelsea and so on does when they're at home, and 1/2 the world will back them like usual. It is however only these 2 leagues where you get close to 100%/break-even by betting them blind. If you try it on other leagues like say the French or German you will lose very close to the bookies overround of 8-10% by just betting them blind. So why should the Premier League and Serie A be different compared to all other european leagues ? Or will they just even out over time, and produce the same 92-93% payback like the average is for all other leagues ? I think so........ So looking at the historic data, you should enjoy the ride while it lasts, since it will not continue to work forever I think - sorry for beeing such a party crasher ! :)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for all the hard work, Dominator, and for the expert analysis :clap. I am sure you are right in that this season is probably a one-off in terms of producing yields in excess of 20%. However, the analysis I did before publishing the system (admittedly only 5 or 6 seasons) indicated a consistently positive return by combining EPL and IA. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, pay attention to Dominator's warning.... things will probably even out in the bookies favour eventually (as always). :sad

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Anyway, just in case this weekend's selections got "lost" in all the recent discussions, I reprint them below.... [quote=Grex;1615216]

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
80			20/02/2010			EPL		West Ham		3	0		Hull	1.77		1.34		12.93		18.53			W		14.27		73%			1,307.36			22.1%			24.6%			25.0%		Pinnacle
81			20/02/2010			IA		Inter		0	0		Sampdoria	1.55		1.34		12.93		25.95			L		-25.95		73%			1,281.42			19.9%			23.0%			23.3%		Pinnacle
82			21/02/2010			IA		Fiorentina		2	1		Livorno	1.66		1.34		12.93		21.62			W		14.27		73%			1,295.69			20.6%			23.5%			23.8%		Bet365
83			27/02/2010			EPL		Chelsea					Man City	1.47		1.62		12.96		31.02																					Pinnacle
84			28/02/2010			IA		Genoa					Bologna	1.67		1.62		12.96		21.76																					Pinnacle
85			28/02/2010			IA		Juventus					Palermo	1.71		1.62		12.96		20.54																					Pinnacle

[/quote]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]By the way, as you can see, most of my odds are taken from Pinnacle.... I have been unable to connect to their website for the past 5 hours.... I hope they haven't followed Portsmouth and gone "bust" :unsure Is anybody else having problems ? [/FONT]