Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I'm with you for the first 5 selections (except Man City). :hope Was doing some back-testing on the data from previous seasons, using equal stakes without recovery on all matches between with Bet365 odds between 1.45 and 1.8. Using 10 points per match, it turns out that this method is currently performing above expectations for all the 3 leagues (even La Liga), which could explain why the yield is higher than the loss recovery system. Whether this favourable trend will continue, or it will regress towards expectations, I guess only time will tell. Yeah, and I could see why you left out La Liga in your selections after the back-testing.

	EPL				SERIE A				LA LIGA
	Staked	Returns	Profit	Yield	Staked	Returns	Profit	Yield	Staked	Returns	Profit	Yield
2005/06	580.00	643.10	63.10	10.9%	680.00	580.30	-99.70	-14.7%	850.00	718.70	-131.30	-15.4%
2006/07	630.00	665.70	35.70	5.7%	600.00	612.00	12.00	2.0%	660.00	558.00	-102.00	-15.5%
2007/08	660.00	790.80	130.80	19.8%	590.00	579.30	-10.70	-1.8%	660.00	593.00	-67.00	-10.2%
2008/09	620.00	594.10	-25.90	-4.2%	910.00	1050.80	140.80	15.5%	650.00	693.20	43.20	6.6%
2009/10	220.00	267.80	47.80	21.7%	410.00	444.70	34.70	8.5%	120.00	133.45	13.45	11.2%

*I hope there are no errors though*

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks for putting all this hard work into the system, Relf. When I was doing my back-testing, I didn't actually split it down seasn-by-season, so your results are very interesting. As you say, apart from this season (as Caribe has pointed out) the Spanish Premira Liga has not performed well. It is also interesting to note that, for any particular season, any under-performance by either the EPL or Serie A is normally compensated for by good performance by the other (eg. 2007/08 and 2008/09). Of course this is only "luck" and probably won't be repeated in the future. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] But, as you say, both leagues (especially the EPL) are over-performing this season, and it probably won't last.... the eternal pessimist :sad. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Regarding the Man City selection for this weekend... yes, I appreciate that it is marginally under the cut-off criterion (1.44 compared with 1.45), but I think that even with "systems" you are permitted a little flexibility ;). [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Thanks again, Relf.... it's comforting to know that people are taking this seriously.... let's hope the good run continues :hope:hope:hope.

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Haha you are welcome! Since I'm putting money in this, I thought I should get to know this system better. I actually did a little analysis over the 1.44 odds. The minimum % needed to break even is 1/1.44 = 69.4%. EPL: 2005/06: 4/4 (100%) 2006/07: 3/5 (60%) 2007/08: 7/8 (88%) 2008/09: 5/7 (71%) 2009/10: 5/9 (56%) Overall: 24/33 (73%) - which gives a 4.7% yield Serie A: 2005/06: 7/8 (88%) 2006/07: 7/8 (88%) 2007/08: 3/3 (100%) 2008/09: 5/8 (63%) 2009/10: 4/5 (80%) Overall: 26/32 (81%) - which gives a 17% yield As I'm only able to bet with the local bookmakers (which offer horrendous odds :@), I would choose to stick with 1.44 in Serie A and not in EPL. (And it's partly because I'm a Blackburn fan. Hehehe!) Once again, I'm assuming that the statistics in the football data site are accurate, and my calculations have no mistakes. *Edit: 3 EPL matches postponed, including Fulham vs Portsmouth.

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This weekend we have: Sevilla-Racing 1.50 Villarreal-Almeria 1.45 Deportivo-Osasuna 1.80 These are the bwin odds. I'm not too confident this time, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit only one of the 3 games. I have not had a good internet connection the last few days and I'm going on a long trip starting Sunday, but I expect to be able to post normally again a week form today. Best wishes.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good luck with your Liga selections, Caribe.... and have a safe journey, wherever you are going... keep away from the snow ! Interesting to note from Relf's table above that the yield from the Spanish league has progressively improved over the past few seasons... let's hope the improvement continues :ok[/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 4 out of 4 for Serie A! Awesome weekend! Unbelievably, it's STILL 100% strike rate for me - 6 out of 6 (incl. Lazio and Milan a few ago). Good luck on your Man City bet!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1574038]4 out of 4 for Serie A! Awesome weekend! Unbelievably, it's STILL 100% strike rate for me - 6 out of 6 (incl. Lazio and Milan a few ago). Good luck on your Man City bet![/quote] I just LOVE Italian football :clap...... the amazing run continues, with 12 out of the last 13 bets coming good (see table below). Yield is now up to 20% on the alternative staking plans, and a respectable 17% on the original "loss-recovery" system. I doubt whether tomorrow's match will survive the weather, so that's probably it for a few days..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]		[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]			[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Recovery Target[/B]		[B]Bank Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]		[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]			[B]Bank[/B]			[B]Yield[/B]			[SIZE=1]Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes		[/SIZE]
								[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																						1,000.00			START								[/SIZE]
44			19/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W		12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%			10.9%			10.5%		[/SIZE]
45			20/12/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W		12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%			12.1%			11.8%		[/SIZE]
46			20/12/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W		12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%			13.4%			13.2%		[/SIZE]
47			27/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W		10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%			14.8%			14.6%		[/SIZE]
48			28/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W		10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%			15.4%			15.2%		[/SIZE]
49			28/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W		10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%			16.3%			16.2%		[/SIZE]
50			29/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L		-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%			14.0%			13.7%		[/SIZE]
51			06/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Milan		5	2		Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93			W		12.72		69%			1,107.56			12.0%			14.9%			14.6%		[/SIZE]
52			06/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Lazio		4	1		Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19			W		12.72		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%		[/SIZE]
53			09/01/2010			EPL		[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000]Fulham[/COLOR]		P	P		Portsmouth	1.71		0.00		11.20		0.00			P		0.00		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%		Pinnacle
54			09/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Roma[/COLOR]		1	0		Chievo	1.60		0.00		11.20		18.67			W		11.20		70%			1,131.48			14.1%			16.8%			16.7%		Pinnacle
55			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Fiorentina[/COLOR]		2	1		Bari	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		70%			1,142.68			15.0%			17.9%			17.8%		Pinnacle
56			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Genoa[/COLOR]		2	0		Catania	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		71%			1,153.88			16.0%			18.9%			18.9%		Pinnacle
57			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Palermo[/COLOR]		1	0		Atalanta	1.80		0.00		11.20		14.00			W		11.20		71%			1,165.08			16.9%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
58			11/01/2010			EPL		[COLOR=#ff0000]Man City[/COLOR]					Blackburn	1.44		0.00		11.20		25.45																					Bet365
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1574038 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Definitely very unsure about this selection, having seen the absentees from Man City..... no Wright-Phillips, Ireland, Lescott, Johnson, Bridge, Toure, Adebayor :unsure. But unfortunately, the system does not take into account injuries etc., so I will have to stick with it :hope. Strange that the odds on City have now actually dropped from 1.44 to 1.40 on Bet365 (perhaps because of the "Vieira Factor" ;)) [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1574480][FONT=Comic Sans MS]........ Strange that the odds on City have now actually dropped from 1.44 to 1.40 on Bet365 (perhaps because of the "Vieira Factor" ;)) [/FONT][/quote] Perhaps it really was the "Vieira Factor"..... just found out that he's not playing tonight and the odds on City have now shot up to 1.53 on Bet365 and, on Pinnacle, the game is "offline" :unsure

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Pinnacle is now back "on line" and offering odds of 1.58 :loon

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites The "run" continues, with Man City trouncing Blackburn (comiserations to Relf)..... that makes it 13 wins out of the last 14 selections.

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
44			19/12/2009			EPL		Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W		12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%			10.9%			10.5%
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W		12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%			12.1%			11.8%
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W		12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%			13.4%			13.2%
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W		10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%			14.8%			14.6%
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W		10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%			15.4%			15.2%
49			28/12/2009			EPL		Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W		10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%			16.3%			16.2%
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L		-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%			14.0%			13.7%
51			06/01/2010			IA		Milan		5	2		Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93			W		12.72		69%			1,107.56			12.0%			14.9%			14.6%
52			06/01/2010			IA		Lazio		4	1		Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19			W		12.72		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%
53			09/01/2010			EPL		Fulham		P	P		Portsmouth	1.71		0.00		11.20		0.00			P		0.00		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%		Pinnacle
54			09/01/2010			IA		Roma		1	0		Chievo	1.60		0.00		11.20		18.67			W		11.20		70%			1,131.48			14.1%			16.8%			16.7%		Pinnacle
55			10/01/2010			IA		Fiorentina		2	1		Bari	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		70%			1,142.68			15.0%			17.9%			17.8%		Pinnacle
56			10/01/2010			IA		Genoa		2	0		Catania	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		71%			1,153.88			16.0%			18.9%			18.9%		Pinnacle
57			10/01/2010			IA		Palermo		1	0		Atalanta	1.80		0.00		11.20		14.00			W		11.20		71%			1,165.08			16.9%			20.0%			20.0%		Bet365
58			11/01/2010			EPL		Man City		4	1		Blackburn	1.44		0.00		11.20		25.45			W		11.20		72%			1,176.28			17.6%			20.4%			20.5%		Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Sorry, but I have to post next weekend's selections early....... anyway, now that thousands are following the "system", the odds will probably go down :rollin

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L		P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																														1,000.00			START
53			09/01/2010			EPL		Fulham		P	P		Portsmouth	1.71		0.00		11.20		0.00			P		0.00		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%
54			09/01/2010			IA		Roma		1	0		Chievo	1.60		0.00		11.20		18.67			W		11.20		70%			1,131.48			14.1%			16.8%			16.7%
55			10/01/2010			IA		Fiorentina		2	1		Bari	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		70%			1,142.68			15.0%			17.9%			17.8%
56			10/01/2010			IA		Genoa		2	0		Catania	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		71%			1,153.88			16.0%			18.9%			18.9%
57			10/01/2010			IA		Palermo		1	0		Atalanta	1.80		0.00		11.20		14.00			W		11.20		71%			1,165.08			16.9%			20.0%			20.0%
58			11/01/2010			EPL		Man City		4	1		Blackburn	1.44		0.00		11.20		25.45			W		11.20		72%			1,176.28			17.6%			20.4%			20.5%
59			17/01/2010			EPL		Aston Villa					West Ham	1.56		0.00		11.76		21.00																					Pinnacle
60			16/01/2010			IA		Cagliari					Livorno	1.79		0.00		11.76		14.89																					Pinnacle
61			17/01/2010			IA		Fiorentina					Bologna	1.54		0.00		11.76		21.78																					Pinnacle
62			17/01/2010			IA		Roma					Genoa	1.74		0.00		11.76		15.89																					Pinnacle
63			17/01/2010			IA		Sampdoria					Catania	1.85		0.00		11.76		13.84																					Pinnacle

[Marcus1874]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Fantastic run :clap...getting just rewards for all the hard work being put into this system. Almost seems unfair for us to make money from it :$. I've only just had a proper look at the thread just now, so I'll be taking your selections into account when placing at the weekend. Well done, and good luck for the future of this system :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Marcus, for your kind words. I repeat myself by saying that this success rate can not continue..... but let's bask in the glory whilst it does :dude

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1575272 Blackburn weren't expected to get any points anyway. Hope they put in a credible performance in the league cup semis against Aston Villa in the midweek. Having taken a look at the selections this week, I'm starting to catch the pessimist virus. :lol Would need at least 3 out of 5 for profit - not sure if Serie A would be cooperative once again. Since I'm on the no loss recovery system, I'm considering skipping/putting smaller bets this round, with the assumption that the run might stop here.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I tend to agree with you, Relf...... for the sake of "proofing" the system, we have to stick to the staking strategy on paper. But when it comes to putting in hard cash, sometimes you have to follow your gut feeling.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites By the way, the reason that Sampdoria qualify at odds of 1.85 (when the system's cut-off is 1.80) is that the games are assessed on Bet365 published odds..... and Bet365 are offering exactly 1.80.

[Marcus1874]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1575378 Ahh, of course no system can work for ever...but like you said, when things are going your way, take advantage of the situation. There's probably a more poetic/philosophical way to say that but hey :lol.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Marcus1874;1575480 [FONT=Comic Sans MS].... not to worry, Marcus..... probably not many poets or philosophers visit this forum anyway :) [/FONT]

[howyapat]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites i like your system grex.....good work...as you say your not going to get rich quick using it....but it turns a reasonable profit.....better than a banks interest rate thats for sure........its very tempting to start trying to put your selections in accas etc. but as we all know that where it goes pear shaped and the bookies clean up.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]You're not going to get rich quick with any system on this Forum.... but a yield of around 20% is better than most. Interesting comment on accumulators...... a quick check reveals that if you had put a full accumulator bet on each round, the yield, before last weekend, would have been 62% :loon. Last weekend's 5-fold success would have boosted the yield to 100% :loon:loon:loon. The quoted odds are mainly from Pinnacle..... unfortunately, this company does not do "accas"...... the yield using Bet365 odds would have been somewhat less. Of course, "accas" are notoriously risky and unpredictable.... but a yield of 100% can not be sniffed at[/FONT] :dude

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1575707 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Just checked, and Pinnacle does do accumulators, but I think you are restricted to a single league, for example, it is not possible to do an acca with 2 selections from the EPL and 3 from the Italy Serie A. [/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Well, I'm not surprised by the high yield from accumulators given the relatively high strike rate of your selections. No disrespect to your system, but I think luck played a major role this season. Compared with the back-testing data, EPL, Serie A and Primera are ALL putting in their best yields in 5 years! Not sure if it's just coincidence or there's something to do with the teams in the respective leagues this season. My point is, (despite not doing any back-testing), I don't think it's really 'safe' to bet on accumulators with this system in the long run. But of course, I might be wrong. :loon

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1575713 Couldn't agree with you more :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1575289 Interestingly, the odds have generally shortened with Pinnacle.....

	11/01/2010		13/01/2010
Aston Villa	1.56		1.54
Cagliari	1.79		1.79
Fiorentina	1.54		1.49
Roma	1.74		1.69
Sampdoria	1.85		1.79

It looks as though it pays to bet early :ok

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1572550][FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good luck with your Liga selections, Caribe.... and have a safe journey, wherever you are going... keep away from the snow ! Interesting to note from Relf's table above that the yield from the Spanish league has progressively improved over the past few seasons... let's hope the improvement continues :ok[/FONT][/quote] Right Grex, I just got away from the snow on Monday morning, after spending Sunday in Madrid under the worst snowstorm I have ever seen there...and I lived in Madrid for about 15 years, never seen anything like it. I was right to be leery of last weekend's games, the only correct forecast was that I would probably have only one right out of the three. I have no idea yet of this coming weekend's games. I hope to have it by Friday. Regards

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites After much consideration, I have decided to follow the 5 picks as well (with the same amount of bet). I prefer to ignore the run and see the selections as memory-less and independent of the previous run. Out of the 5, Fiorentina worries me the most as they had to comeback from a goal down to win 2-1 last week, and they had a midweek cup match which they again had to comeback from a goal down to win 3-2. Another slight concern would be that Aston Villa had the midweek match with Blackburn in the first leg of Carling Cup Semis, and the second leg is this coming Wednesday. Hope they won't rest too many of their players. Nothing weird jumps out from the other 3 teams - and I'm expecting (and hoping) at least 3 out of 5 would make it this weekend! :hope:hope:hope

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This is what we have for this weekend in the Priimera Division, all based on bwin odds: Zaragoza-Xeez 1.58 Atletico Madrid-Sporting 1.55 Racing-Valladolid 1.95 I'm happy with these selections. All seem to me to be clear home team winners, even Racing who are doing very well after they replaced their manager. There is another I wouldn't touch: Almeria-Tenerife 1.90, this is a very risky one. After last week's disaster, there is still a 51% overall profit since I started this Spanish version of the Grex system. Cheers

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Another game.... another winner :loon [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]		[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]			[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Recovery Target[/B]		[B]Bank Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]		[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]			[B]Bank[/B]			[B]Yield[/B]			[SIZE=1]Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes		[/SIZE]
								[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																						1,000.00			START								[/SIZE]
53			09/01/2010			EPL		[SIZE=1]Fulham		P	P		Portsmouth	1.71		0.00		11.20		0.00			P		0.00		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%		[/SIZE]
54			09/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Roma		1	0		Chievo	1.60		0.00		11.20		18.67			W		11.20		70%			1,131.48			14.1%			16.8%			16.7%		[/SIZE]
55			10/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Fiorentina		2	1		Bari	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		70%			1,142.68			15.0%			17.9%			17.8%		[/SIZE]
[SIZE=1]56			10/01/2010			IA		Genoa		2	0		Catania	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34			W		11.20		71%			1,153.88			16.0%			18.9%			18.9%		[/SIZE]
57			10/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Palermo		1	0		Atalanta	1.80		0.00		11.20		14.00			W		11.20		71%			1,165.08			16.9%			20.0%			20.0%		[/SIZE]
58			11/01/2010			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man City		4	1		Blackburn	1.44		0.00		11.20		25.45			W		11.20		72%			1,176.28			17.6%			20.4%			20.5%		[/SIZE]
59			16/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000]Cagliari[/COLOR]		3	0		Livorno	1.79		0.00		11.76		14.89			W		11.76		72%			1,188.04			18.5%			21.4%			21.6%		Pinnacle
60			17/01/2010			EPL		[COLOR=#ff0000]Aston Villa[/COLOR]					West Ham	1.56		0.00		11.76		21.00																					Pinnacle
61			17/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Fiorentina[/COLOR]					Bologna	1.54		0.00		11.76		21.78																					Pinnacle
62			17/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Roma[/COLOR]					Genoa	1.74		0.00		11.76		15.89																					Pinnacle
63			17/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Sampdoria[/COLOR]					Catania	1.85		0.00		11.76		13.84																					Pinnacle
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1578549]After much consideration, I have decided to follow the 5 picks as well (with the same amount of bet). I prefer to ignore the run and see the selections as memory-less and independent of the previous run. Out of the 5, Fiorentina worries me the most as they had to comeback from a goal down to win 2-1 last week, and they had a midweek cup match which they again had to comeback from a goal down to win 3-2. Another slight concern would be that Aston Villa had the midweek match with Blackburn in the first leg of Carling Cup Semis, and the second leg is this coming Wednesday. Hope they won't rest too many of their players. Nothing weird jumps out from the other 3 teams - and I'm expecting (and hoping) at least 3 out of 5 would make it this weekend! :hope:hope:hope[/quote] Turns out that my initial worries for Aston Villa and Fiorentina weren't unfounded. :sad Suffered losses for the first time in 3 rounds, but my current yield since I'm started betting still stands at a healthy 12.7%. Let's hope next round will be a better one. :hope