Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites caribe;1558076 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]..... and that's the way it should be. The British tradition of cramming so many games into the Christmas and New Year holiday period is crazy..... but at least it does get us out of the house and away from the washing-up :lol A Merry Christmas and Happy (and prosperous) New Year to everybody.... may 2010 bring THE system that will make us all millionaires[/FONT] :dude

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1558158][FONT=Comic Sans MS]..... and that's the way it should be. The British tradition of cramming so many games into the Christmas and New Year holiday period is crazy..... but at least it does get us out of the house and away from the washing-up :lol A Merry Christmas and Happy (and prosperous) New Year to everybody.... may 2010 bring THE system that will make us all millionaires[/FONT] :dude[/quote] My very best wishes for a Merry Christmas and a prosperous New Year....and I second your wish for THE system in 2010!1

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites With Italy Serie A having closed down for 2 weeks, selections are going to be a bit thin on the ground over the Christmas and New Year period. Only one selection for the next round of EPL....

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
44			19/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W	12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%		Bet365
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal					Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Another winner, to bring the % yield into double figures. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
44			19/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W	12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%		Bet365
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W	10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites And two for tomorrow.... the Spurs odds are slightly below the 1.45 minimum.... but, what the heck - it's Christmas :ok

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
44			19/12/2009			EPL		Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W	12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%		Bet365
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W	10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%		Pinnacle
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham					West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66														Bet365
49			28/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Everton					Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Two more winners on Monday..... that's makes it 7 winners on the trot :loon. Probably, Tuesday's selection (Bolton) will end the run :hope......

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W	10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%		Pinnacle
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W	10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%		Bet365
49			28/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W	10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%		Pinnacle
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton					Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62														Pinnacle

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites You are doing good!!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Thanks, Relf...... but I'm an eternal pessimist..... a yield of >10% can't continue :unsure

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1562930 My pessimism was justified :sad.....

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield		[SIZE=1]
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365
47			27/12/2009			EPL		Arsenal		3	0		Aston Villa	1.79		0.00		10.75		13.61			W	10.75		68%			1,085.76			10.5%		Pinnacle
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W	10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%		Bet365
49			28/12/2009			EPL		Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W	10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%		Pinnacle
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L	-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%		Pinnacle

The next selections will be in 2010..... so, a Happy New Year to everyone

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I almost forgot to place the "bets", with all the end-of-year and New Year parties. For this weekend this is how it looks: Order of odds is Pinnacle,Betfair,Bwin and Bet365. All as of last Wednesday. Getafe-Valladolid: 1.81,1.86,1.75,1.75 Almeria-Xerez: 1.83,1.85,1.70,1.75 Valencia-Espanol: 1.82,1.50,1.45,1.44 Of the 2.00 odds games (Sporting-Malaga, Santander-Tenerife and Mallorca-Bilbao) the only one I feel comfortable with is Santander-Tenerife. Sporting-Malaga, two low scoring teams could very well be a 0-0 tie. As far as Mallorca-Bilbao, I feel a smart bet would be on Bilbao. They have won their last 3 away games, have achieved 13 points in the last 6 games. The odds in their favor are close to 4.00. Cheers! and a Happy New Year!!!

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=caribe;1566736]I almost forgot to place the "bets", with all the end-of-year and New Year parties. For this weekend this is how it looks: Order of odds is Pinnacle,Betfair,Bwin and Bet365. All as of last Wednesday. Getafe-Valladolid: 1.81,1.86,1.75,1.75 Almeria-Xerez: 1.83,1.85,1.70,1.75 Valencia-Espanol: 1.82,1.50,1.45,1.44 Of the 2.00 odds games (Sporting-Malaga, Santander-Tenerife and Mallorca-Bilbao) the only one I feel comfortable with is Santander-Tenerife. Sporting-Malaga, two low scoring teams could very well be a 0-0 tie. As far as Mallorca-Bilbao, I feel a smart bet would be on Bilbao. They have won their last 3 away games, have achieved 13 points in the last 6 games. The odds in their favor are close to 4.00. Cheers! and a Happy New Year!!![/quote] 3 out of 3! :clap

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1568221 Good results, Relf :clap..... can you provide some statistics on yield etc. for the Primera Liga selections ?

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Oh, it's not me that picked the selections. It's caribe. I'm only the one congratulating! :)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites You're right...... OMG, too many New Year parties

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Two selections for the Serie A mid-week round of matches..... :hope

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
48			28/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W	10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%		Bet365
49			28/12/2009			EPL		Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W	10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%		Pinnacle
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L	-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%		Pinnacle
51			06/01/2010			IA		Milan					Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93														Pinnacle
52			06/01/2010			IA		Lazio					Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19														Pinnacle

[dannkez2407]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites hello mate, have you considered running a staking plan on this that increases with the profit? seems your gonna stay fairly consistent and i wouldnt bet against you still having a decent 15% or so yield by the end of season....

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1549777]Hi, Been existing as a 'guest' in this forum for a few weeks, so this is my first post. Hehe. Personally I think this strategy of yours is pretty good. I'm not sure if you realized, but out of curiosity, I did a bit of calculations (thanks to excel), and I found out that if you were to bet 10.00 on each of the 39 picks (27 win, 12 loss), you would have gotten 63.70 out of 390, which is a 16% yield, and that is much higher than the current 12% that you have.[/quote] Just thought it would be good to update this 'system' of betting the same amount on each game without the recovery system. Previously after 39 picks, the yield without recovery was 16% and the yield with recovery was 12%. At the moment after 50 picks, the yield without recovery is 14.0% and the yield with recovery is 10.8%. Both are good. :ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites dannkez2407;1568434 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks for the comment.... actually, the staking plan does, to a certain extent, take into account profit.... the target profit is set at 1% of the current bank. I will do some back-testing using a stake (rather than a profit target) of 1% and let you know the outcome. [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1568459]Just thought it would be good to update this 'system' of betting the same amount on each game without the recovery system. Previously after 39 picks, the yield without recovery was 16% and the yield with recovery was 12%. At the moment after 50 picks, the yield without recovery is 14.0% and the yield with recovery is 10.8%. Both are good. :ok[/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Yes, it does seem that the recovery system is not making a positive contribution to the overall yield.... this is contrary to back-tested performance over previous seasons. I will seriously have to consider adjusting the staking plan. [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1568537][FONT=Comic Sans MS]I will do some back-testing using a stake (rather than a profit target) of 1% and let you know the outcome. [/FONT][/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]OK..... if I had run the system using level stakes without the loss recovery, the current yield would be 14.0% :loon. Using stakes of 1% of the running bank, the yield would be 13.7% :loon....... both better than the current 10.8% :\. Thanks to Dannkez2407 and Relf for pointing this out...... I'll stick to the staking plan for the time being, but will also quote the yield produced by the alternative staking plans[/FONT]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Last weekend's results were:

Part.	Pinnacle	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365	Result	Bet	Won/Loss	Net on Day	% profit
GETAFE - VALLADOLID	1,81	1,86	1,75	1,75		10,00	8,60
RACING - TENERIFE	2,08	2,12	1,90	2,00		10,00	11,20
ALMERÍA - XEREZ	1,83	1,85	1,70	1,73		10,00	8,50
VALENCIA - ESPANYOL	1,81	1,50	1,45	1,44		10,00	5,00	33,3	83,3%
So, pretty decent results with what I'm calling The Grex system, because, Grex you certainly own the copyright.						200,00		117,4	58,7%

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=caribe;1569186]

So, pretty decent results with what I'm calling The Grex system, because, Grex you certainly own the copyright.						200,00		117,4	58,7%

[/quote] OMG...... four rotating balls AND a system named after me.... :$.... thanks Caribe, you have made my day ;)

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1568416]Two selections for the Serie A mid-week round of matches..... :hope

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W	10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%		Bet365
49			28/12/2009			EPL		Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W	10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%		Pinnacle
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L	-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%		Pinnacle
51			06/01/2010			IA		Milan					Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93														Pinnacle
52			06/01/2010			IA		Lazio					Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19														Pinnacle

[/quote] Comfortable victories for both Milan and Lazio! :ok Decided that it was time to follow your picks and won some money for myself too! :nana [I]Update on the yield without recovery: Staked: 52 pts Returned: 60.31 pts Profit: 8.31 pts Yield: 15.9% Strike Rate: 69% (36 out 52)[/I]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1570907]Comfortable victories for both Milan and Lazio! :ok Decided that it was time to follow your picks and won some money for myself too! :nana Update on the yield without recovery: Staked: 52 pts Returned: 60.31 pts Profit: 8.31 pts Yield: 15.9% Strike Rate: 69% (36 out 52)[/quote] Glad you won some money, Relf (me too ;))...... BUT, I think this level of success is unsustainable, so I would be careful with your hard-earned money in the near future. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] The results table now shows the yield based on 3 separate staking plans.... a) my loss-recovery system, b) flat stakes of 1 unit per bet (without loss-recovery), and c) 1% of bank (without loss-recovery). Of course, my original staking plan (with loss-recovery) is showing the lowest yield at 13.2% :loon..... the others are significantly better at around 16% :loon:loon.... c'est la vie. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield			[SIZE=1]Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes
																													1,000.00			START
48			28/12/2009			EPL		Tottenham		2	0		West Ham	1.44		0.00		10.85		24.66			W	10.85		69%			1,096.61			11.4%			15.4%			15.2%
49			28/12/2009			EPL		Everton		2	0		Burnley	1.59		0.00		10.85		18.39			W	10.85		69%			1,107.46			12.5%			16.3%			16.2%
50			29/12/2009			EPL		Bolton		2	2		Hull	1.86		0.00		10.85		12.62			L	-12.62		68%			1,094.84			10.8%			14.0%			13.7%
51			06/01/2010			IA		Milan		5	2		Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93			W	12.72		69%			1,107.56			12.0%			14.9%			14.6%
52			06/01/2010			IA		Lazio		4	1		Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19			W	12.72		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Not to worry, I bet small and it's within my limits. Just thought that it would be better off spending a small portion of my savings on betting since the bank interests in my country only pays at 0.125% per year. LOL!

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Compared with that, 13% to 16% yield is pretty good. As a matter of interest, which country are you from, Relf ?

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites I'm from Singapore, you?

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Born in England, with Scottish parents and now living in Spain ;). I know football betting is VERY popular in your part of the world, especially asian handicap betting..... I have tried several times to develop systems for AH betting, but they never produce consistent results.... perhaps, one day..... :hope

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hmm, that's an interesting life. Would love to go to Europe someday. :) As for AH, I only understand how it works and what the numbers means, but I think it's difficult to bet on it. Some teams prefer to sit back and defend the 1 goal lead, thus not clearing the handicap, while teams with one goal down might go berserk in search for the equaliser and end up conceding another goal, thus failing the handicap. (But it's the unpredictability of the sport that keeps people around the world watching sometimes. :loon)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1571076 ......and Europe would love to welcome you ;). [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] This weekend has produced 6 selections..... it's doubtful if the 2 EPL matches will beat the weather, so will probably be relying on sunny(?) Italy.... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]		[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]			[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Recovery Target[/B]		[B]Bank Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]		[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]			[B]Bank[/B]			[B]Yield[/B]			[SIZE=1]Yield flat stakes			Yield 1% bank stakes		[/SIZE]
								[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																						1,000.00			START								[/SIZE]
51			06/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Milan		5	2		Genoa	1.58		1.78		10.94		21.93			W		12.72		69%			1,107.56			12.0%			14.9%			14.6%		[/SIZE]
52			06/01/2010			IA		[SIZE=1]Lazio		4	1		Livorno	1.74		1.78		10.94		17.19			W		12.72		69%			1,120.28			13.2%			16.0%			15.8%		[/SIZE]
53			09/01/2010			EPL		[SIZE=1][COLOR=#ff0000]Fulham[/COLOR]					Portsmouth	1.71		0.00		11.20		15.77																					Pinnacle
54			09/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Roma[/COLOR]					Chievo	1.60		0.00		11.20		18.67																					Pinnacle
55			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Fiorentina[/COLOR]					Bari	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34																					Pinnacle
56			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Genoa[/COLOR]					Catania	1.73		0.00		11.20		15.34																					Pinnacle
57			10/01/2010			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Palermo[/COLOR]					Atalanta	1.80		0.00		11.20		14.00																					Bet365
58			11/01/2010			EPL		[COLOR=#ff0000]Man City[/COLOR]					Blackburn	1.44		0.00		11.20		25.45																					Bet365
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]