Grex's HOMES; 525 selections; +5.6% yield

[Grex]

[quote=TheLubet;1511810]Q. Are the odds you are working with a hinderence for this system to be a success. Q. What were your back testing results like. Q. Loss recovery sq-root system for last 4 bets = 70.87 = 8.42 . It does'nt add up for me. I would love for you to prove me wrong. I've started a system (REZ) on glory hunters along similar lines eg. loss recovery that's why im taking an added interest in you, were thinking along similar lines. Im working on the loss recovery aspect without breaking me. The Lubet.[/quote] Thanks for your comments, Lubet...... to answer your questions... The back-test results over 5 seasons were consistently around 10%-13% yield; As I explained before, the loss-recovery system is very conservative.... as you say, you have to be very careful with loss-recovery, or else it can quickly break your bank. It may not seem worthwhile trying to recover such a small amount, but with the relatively high strike rate, the "square root" factor made a significant improvement to the yield. Anyway, I have adjusted the system slightly to take into account a power-rating system that I have developed based on the relative attacking strengths of teams. If I had adopted it earlier, then I would have eliminated most of the previous losing bets. Let's see how it goes.....

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham		0	1		Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24			L	-29.24		67%			1,011.78			4.5%		Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		4	1		Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69			W	13.16		69%			1,024.94			8.7%		Pinnacle
17			25/10/2009			EPL		Man City		2	2		Fulham	1.49		2.40		10.25		25.82			L	-25.82		65%			999.12			-0.3%		Pinnacle
18			25/10/2009			IA		Fiorentina		0	1		Napoli	1.80		2.40		10.25		15.81			L	-15.81		61%			983.31			-5.1%		Bet365
19			31/10/2009			EPL		Burnley					Hull	1.96		1.45		9.83		11.75														Pinnacle
20			31/10/2009			IA		Juventus					Napoli	1.56		1.45		9.83		20.14														Pinnacle
21			01/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina					Catania	1.45		1.45		9.83		25.07														Pinnacle
22			01/11/2009			IA		Roma					Bologna	1.71		1.45		9.83		15.89														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A better weekend :D..... but still in negative territory :\......

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham		0	1		Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24			L	-29.24		67%			1,011.78			4.5%		Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		4	1		Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69			W	13.16		69%			1,024.94			8.7%		Pinnacle
17			25/10/2009			EPL		Man City		2	2		Fulham	1.49		2.40		10.25		25.82			L	-25.82		65%			999.12			-0.3%		Pinnacle
18			25/10/2009			IA		Fiorentina		0	1		Napoli	1.80		2.40		10.25		15.81			L	-15.81		61%			983.31			-5.1%		Bet365
19			31/10/2009			EPL		Burnley		2	0		Hull	1.96		1.45		9.83		11.75			W	11.28		63%			994.59			-1.6%		Pinnacle
20			31/10/2009			IA		Juventus		2	3		Napoli	1.56		1.45		9.83		20.14			L	-20.14		60%			974.44			-7.1%		Pinnacle
21			01/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina		3	1		Catania	1.45		1.45		9.83		25.07			W	11.28		62%			985.72			-3.7%		Pinnacle
22			01/11/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Bologna	1.71		1.45		9.83		15.89			W	11.28		64%			997.00			-0.7%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Another weekend...... as I said before, the selections have departed slightly from the original odds criteria, and are now based on my own ratings system. (for obvious reasons, I am not happy with Bet No. 23 ;))

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
1			20/09/2009			EPL		Man United		4	3		Man City	1.57				10.00		17.54			W	10.00		100%			1,010.00			57.0%
2			20/09/2009			EPL		Everton		3	0		Blackburn	1.80				10.00		12.50			W	10.00		100%			1,020.00			66.6%
3			20/09/2009			EPL		Chelsea		3	0		Tottenham	1.50				10.00		20.00			W	10.00		100%			1,030.00			59.9%
4			27/09/2009			EPL		Sunderland		4	2		Wolverhampton	1.72				10.30		14.31			W	10.30		100%			1,040.30			62.6%
5			27/09/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Siena	1.61				10.30		16.89			W	10.30		100%			1,050.60			62.3%
6			28/09/2009			EPL		Man City		3	1		West Ham	1.50				10.30		20.60			W	10.30		100%			1,060.90			59.8%
7			04/10/2009			EPL		Everton		1	1		Stoke	1.57				10.61		18.61			L	-18.61		86%			1,042.29			35.1%
8			04/10/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Napoli	1.70				10.61		15.16			W	10.61		88%			1,052.90			39.0%
9			04/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		1	1		Parma	1.65				10.61		16.32			L	-16.32		78%			1,036.58			24.1%
10			17/10/2009			IA		[SIZE=1]Juventus		1	1		Fioentina	1.79		1.18		10.37		14.62			L	-14.62		70%			1,021.96			13.2%		Pinnacle
11			18/10/2009			EPL		Blackburn		3	2		Burnley	1.80		1.18		10.37		14.44			W	11.55		73%			1,033.51			18.5%		Bet365
12			18/10/2009			IA		Napoli		2	1		Bologna	1.56		1.18		10.37		20.63			W	11.55		75%			1,045.06			22.3%		Pinnacle
13			18/10/2009			IA		Udinese		1	2		Atalanta	1.74		1.18		10.37		15.59			L	-15.59		69%			1,029.47			13.6%		Pinnacle
14			19/10/2009			EPL		Fulham		2	0		Hull	1.71		1.18		10.37		16.18			W	11.55		71%			1,041.02			17.6%		Pinnacle
15			24/10/2009			EPL		Tottenham		0	1		Stoke	1.45		2.75		10.41		29.24			L	-29.24		67%			1,011.78			4.5%		Pinnacle
16			24/10/2009			IA		Sampdoria		4	1		Bologna	1.58		2.75		10.41		22.69			W	13.16		69%			1,024.94			8.7%		Pinnacle
17			25/10/2009			EPL		Man City		2	2		Fulham	1.49		2.40		10.25		25.82			L	-25.82		65%			999.12			-0.3%		Pinnacle
18			25/10/2009			IA		Fiorentina		0	1		Napoli	1.80		2.40		10.25		15.81			L	-15.81		61%			983.31			-5.1%		Bet365
19			31/10/2009			EPL		Burnley		2	0		Hull	1.96		1.45		9.83		11.75			W	11.28		63%			994.59			-1.6%		Pinnacle
20			31/10/2009			IA		Juventus		2	3		Napoli	1.56		1.45		9.83		20.14			L	-20.14		60%			974.44			-7.1%		Pinnacle
21			01/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina		3	1		Catania	1.45		1.45		9.83		25.07			W	11.28		62%			985.72			-3.7%		Pinnacle
22			01/11/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Bologna	1.71		1.45		9.83		15.89			W	11.28		64%			997.00			-0.7%		Pinnacle
23			08/11/2009			EPL		Chelsea					Man United	2.03		1.40		9.97		11.04														Pinnacle
24			08/11/2009			IA		Genoa					Siena	1.73		1.40		9.97		15.58														Pinnacle
25			08/11/2009			IA		Inter					Roma	1.63		1.40		9.97		18.05														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A slight improvement..... but nothing to get excited about ;)

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
22			01/11/2009			IA		Roma		2	1		Bologna	1.71		1.45		9.83		15.89			W	11.28		64%			997.00			-0.7%		Pinnacle
23			08/11/2009			EPL		Chelsea		1	0		Man United	2.03		1.40		9.97		11.04			W	11.37		65%			1,008.37			2.0%		Pinnacle
24			08/11/2009			IA		Genoa		4	2		Siena	1.73		1.40		9.97		15.58			W	11.37		67%			1,019.74			4.6%		Pinnacle
25			08/11/2009			IA		Inter		1	1		Roma	1.63		1.40		9.97		18.05			L	-18.05		64%			1,001.70			0.4%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites This weekend's 5 selections.... 4 of which are from Italy Serie A :unsure....

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
23			08/11/2009			EPL		Chelsea		1	0		Man United	2.03		1.40		9.97		11.04			W	11.37		65%			1,008.37			2.0%		Pinnacle
24			08/11/2009			IA		Genoa		4	2		Siena	1.73		1.40		9.97		15.58			W	11.37		67%			1,019.74			4.6%		Pinnacle
25			08/11/2009			IA		Inter		1	1		Roma	1.63		1.40		9.97		18.05			L	-18.05		64%			1,001.70			0.4%		Pinnacle
26			21/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina					Parma	1.79		0.80		10.02		13.70														Pinnacle
27			22/11/2009			EPL		Tottenham					Wigan	1.50		0.80		10.02		21.64														Bet365
28			22/11/2009			IA		Palermo					Catania	1.72		0.80		10.02		15.03														Bet365
29			22/11/2009			IA		Roma					Bari	1.69		0.80		10.02		15.68														Pinnacle
30			22/11/2009			IA		Sampdoria					Chievo	1.81		0.80		10.02		13.36														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Again, a marginal improvement, but still not quite as positive as I expected..... Tottenham only just scraped home :loon

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
23			08/11/2009			EPL		Chelsea		1	0		Man United	2.03		1.40		9.97		11.04			W	11.37		65%			1,008.37			2.0%		Pinnacle
24			08/11/2009			IA		Genoa		4	2		Siena	1.73		1.40		9.97		15.58			W	11.37		67%			1,019.74			4.6%		Pinnacle
25			08/11/2009			IA		Inter		1	1		Roma	1.63		1.40		9.97		18.05			L	-18.05		64%			1,001.70			0.4%		Pinnacle
26			21/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina		2	3		Parma	1.79		0.80		10.02		13.70			L	-13.70		62%			988.00			-2.6%		Pinnacle
27			22/11/2009			EPL		Tottenham		9	1		Wigan	1.50		0.80		10.02		21.64			W	10.82		63%			998.82			-0.2%		Bet365
28			22/11/2009			IA		Palermo		1	1		Catania	1.72		0.80		10.02		15.03			L	-15.03		61%			983.79			-3.3%		Bet365
29			22/11/2009			IA		Roma		3	1		Bari	1.69		0.80		10.02		15.68			W	10.82		62%			994.61			-1.1%		Pinnacle
30			22/11/2009			IA		Sampdoria		2	1		Chievo	1.81		0.80		10.02		13.36			W	10.82		63%			1,005.43			1.0%		Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites As with last weekend, 5 selections of which 4 are from Italy Serie A :hope.....

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
26			21/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina		2	3		Parma	1.79		0.80		10.02		13.70			L	-13.70		62%			988.00			-2.6%		Pinnacle
27			22/11/2009			EPL		Tottenham		9	1		Wigan	1.50		0.80		10.02		21.64			W	10.82		63%			998.82			-0.2%		Bet365
28			22/11/2009			IA		Palermo		1	1		Catania	1.72		0.80		10.02		15.03			L	-15.03		61%			983.79			-3.3%		Bet365
29			22/11/2009			IA		Roma		3	1		Bari	1.69		0.80		10.02		15.68			W	10.82		62%			994.61			-1.1%		Pinnacle
30			22/11/2009			IA		Sampdoria		2	1		Chievo	1.81		0.80		10.02		13.36			W	10.82		63%			1,005.43			1.0%		Pinnacle
31			28/11/2009			EPL		West Ham					Burnley	1.83		1.07		10.54		13.99														Pinnacle
32			28/11/2009			IA		Udinese					Livorno	1.70		1.07		10.54		16.59														Pinnacle
33			29/11/2009			IA		Bari					Siena	1.86		1.07		10.54		13.50														Bet365
34			29/11/2009			IA		Inter					Fiorentina	1.63		1.07		10.54		18.43														Pinnacle
35			29/11/2009			IA		Lazio					Bologna	1.74		1.07		10.54		15.69														Pinnacle

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites A good set of results, with only Lazio letting the side down.....

No.	[/SIZE]		[B]Date[/B]			[B]Lge[/B]		[B]H Team[/B]		[B]Result[/B]			[B]A Team[/B]	[B]Odds[/B]		[B]Recovery Target[/B]		[B]Bank Profit Target[/B]		[B]Stake[/B]			[B]W/L[/B]	[B]P/L[/B]		[B]Strike Rate[/B]			[B]Bank[/B]			[B]Yield[/B]		[SIZE=1]
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]																					1,000.00					[/SIZE]
26			21/11/2009			IA		Fiorentina		2	3		Parma	1.79		0.80		10.02		13.70			[SIZE=1]L	-13.70		62%			988.00			-2.6%		Pinnacle
27			22/11/2009			EPL		Tottenham		9	1		Wigan	1.50		0.80		10.02		21.64			W	10.82		63%			998.82			-0.2%		Bet365
28			22/11/2009			IA		Palermo		1	1		Catania	1.72		0.80		10.02		15.03			L	-15.03		61%			983.79			-3.3%		Bet365
29			22/11/2009			IA		Roma		3	1		Bari	1.69		0.80		10.02		15.68			W	10.82		62%			994.61			-1.1%		Pinnacle
30			22/11/2009			IA		Sampdoria		2	1		Chievo	1.81		0.80		10.02		13.36			W	10.82		63%			1,005.43			1.0%		Pinnacle
31			28/11/2009			EPL		[COLOR=#ff0000]West Ham[/COLOR]		5	3		Burnley	1.83		1.07		10.54		13.99			W	11.61		65%			1,017.04			3.2%		Bet365
32			28/11/2009			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Udinese[/COLOR]		2	0		Livorno	1.70		1.07		10.54		16.59			W	11.61		66%			1,028.65			5.2%		Pinnacle
33			29/11/2009			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Bari[/COLOR]		2	1		Siena	1.86		1.07		10.54		13.50			W	11.61		67%			1,040.26			7.1%		Bet365
34			29/11/2009			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Inter[/COLOR]		1	0		Fiorentina	1.63		1.07		10.54		18.43			W	11.61		68%			1,051.87			8.8%		Pinnacle
35			29/11/2009			IA		[COLOR=#ff0000]Lazio[/COLOR]		0	0		Bologna	1.74		1.07		10.54		15.69			L	-15.69		66%			1,036.18			6.0%		Pinnacle
								[COLOR=#ff0000] [/COLOR]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Let's hope for a good weekend like the last one :hope......

No.			Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00
31			28/11/2009			EPL		West Ham		5	3		Burnley	1.83		1.07		10.54		13.99			W	11.61		65%			1,017.04			3.2%		Bet365
32			28/11/2009			IA		Udinese		2	0		Livorno	1.70		1.07		10.54		16.59			W	11.61		66%			1,028.65			5.2%		Pinnacle
33			29/11/2009			IA		Bari		2	1		Siena	1.86		1.07		10.54		13.50			W	11.61		67%			1,040.26			7.1%		Bet365
34			29/11/2009			IA		Inter		1	0		Fiorentina	1.63		1.07		10.54		18.43			W	11.61		68%			1,051.87			8.8%		Pinnacle
35			29/11/2009			IA		Lazio		0	0		Bologna	1.74		1.07		10.54		15.69			L	-15.69		66%			1,036.18			6.0%		Pinnacle
36			05/12/2009			EPL		Aston Villa					Hull	1.46		0.94		10.36		24.57														Pinnacle
37			05/12/2009			IA		Milan					Sampdoria	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48														Pinnacle
38			06/12/2009			IA		Fiorentina					Atalanta	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48														Pinnacle
39			06/12/2009			IA		Napoli					Bari	1.80		0.94		10.36		14.13														Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites :nana :nana :nana :nana..... 4 out of 4.....

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
31			28/11/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]West Ham		5	3		Burnley	1.83		1.07		10.54		13.99			W	11.61		65%			1,017.04			3.2%		Bet365
32			28/11/2009			IA		Udinese		2	0		Livorno	1.70		1.07		10.54		16.59			W	11.61		66%			1,028.65			5.2%		Pinnacle
33			29/11/2009			IA		Bari		2	1		Siena	1.86		1.07		10.54		13.50			W	11.61		67%			1,040.26			7.1%		Bet365
34			29/11/2009			IA		Inter		1	0		Fiorentina	1.63		1.07		10.54		18.43			W	11.61		68%			1,051.87			8.8%		Pinnacle
35			29/11/2009			IA		Lazio		0	0		Bologna	1.74		1.07		10.54		15.69			L	-15.69		66%			1,036.18			6.0%		Pinnacle
36			05/12/2009			EPL		Aston Villa		3	0		Hull	1.46		0.94		10.36		24.57			W	11.30		67%			1,047.48			7.6%		Pinnacle
37			05/12/2009			IA		Milan		3	0		Sampdoria	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,058.78			9.1%		Pinnacle
38			06/12/2009			IA		Fiorentina		2	0		Atalanta	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,070.08			10.5%		Pinnacle
39			06/12/2009			IA		Napoli		3	2		Bari	1.80		0.94		10.36		14.13			W	11.30		69%			1,081.38			12.0%		Bet365

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Four selections for this weekend..... :hope [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
36			05/12/2009			EPL		Aston Villa		3	0		Hull	1.46		0.94		10.36		24.57			[SIZE=1]W	11.30		67%			1,047.48			7.6%		Pinnacle
37			05/12/2009			IA		Milan		3	0		Sampdoria	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,058.78			9.1%		Pinnacle
38			06/12/2009			IA		Fiorentina		1	0		Atalanta	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,070.08			10.5%		Pinnacle
39			06/12/2009			IA		Napoli		3	2		Bari	1.80		0.94		10.36		14.13			W	11.30		69%			1,081.38			12.0%		Bet365
40			12/12/2009			EPL		Man United					Aston Villa	1.47		0.00		10.81		23.00														Pinnacle
41			12/12/2009			EPL		Sunderland					Portsmouth	1.94		0.00		10.81		11.50														Pinnacle
42			13/12/2009			IA		Milan					Palermo	1.53		0.00		10.81		20.40														Pinnacle
43			13/12/2009			IA		Parma					Bologna	1.84		0.00		10.81		12.87														Pinnacle

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Hi, Been existing as a 'guest' in this forum for a few weeks, so this is my first post. Hehe. Personally I think this strategy of yours is pretty good. I'm not sure if you realized, but out of curiosity, I did a bit of calculations (thanks to excel), and I found out that if you were to bet 10.00 on each of the 39 picks (27 win, 12 loss), you would have gotten 63.70 out of 390, which is a 16% yield, and that is much higher than the current 12% that you have.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites relf;1549777 Thanks, Relf.... and :welcome to PL. Yes, you're absolutely right.... 16.34% to be precise. My staking strategy (including the conservative loss-recovery plan) was based on back-testing over many seasons...... I will stick to it for the time being, but thanks for pointing out the other option. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Anyway, this weekend was a bit of a disaster, with only 1 out of 4 coming home. The only excuse I can offer is that it was a bit of a strange weekend in both the EPL and IA.... some very unexpected results. The up-to-date picture..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
36			05/12/2009			EPL		Aston Villa		3	0		Hull	1.46		0.94		10.36		24.57			[SIZE=1]W	11.30		67%			1,047.48			7.6%		Pinnacle
37			05/12/2009			IA		Milan		3	0		Sampdoria	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,058.78			9.1%		Pinnacle
38			06/12/2009			IA		Fiorentina		1	0		Atalanta	1.58		0.94		10.36		19.48			W	11.30		68%			1,070.08			10.5%		Pinnacle
39			06/12/2009			IA		Napoli		3	2		Bari	1.80		0.94		10.36		14.13			W	11.30		69%			1,081.38			12.0%		Bet365
40			12/12/2009			EPL		Man United		0	1		Aston Villa	1.47		0.00		10.81		23.00			L	-23.00		68%			1,058.38			8.3%		Pinnacle
41			12/12/2009			EPL		Sunderland		1	1		Portsmouth	1.94		0.00		10.81		11.50			L	-11.50		66%			1,046.88			6.6%		Pinnacle
42			13/12/2009			IA		Milan		0	2		Palermo	1.53		0.00		10.81		20.40			L	-20.40		64%			1,026.49			3.6%		Pinnacle
43			13/12/2009			IA		Parma		2	1		Bologna	1.84		0.00		10.81		12.87			W	10.81		65%			1,037.30			5.0%		Pinnacle

[FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

[relf]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Yeah, it's been a pretty bizarre week, especially in EPL where none of the heavy favourites won. Doubt it will happen anytime soon, but if the system can still stay positive after such a 'rare occurrence', it's good enough. That's what I think. But it looks like your stakes next round would be pretty high (due to the high recovery target), so good luck! :hope

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex, I've been following with interest your system. In fact, I decided to try it on the Spanish 1st division, and these are the results for the last 5 weeks: Date Game Betfair Bwin Bet365 Result Bet Won/LossNet on Day% profit 08/11/2009 SEVILLA - VILLARREAL 1,66 1,6 1,61 3-2 10,00 6,60 08/11/2009 VALLADOLID - XEREZ 1,66 1,55 1,57 0-0 10,00 -10,00 08/11/2009 VALENCIA - ZARAGOZA 1,52 1,45 1,44 3-1 10,00 5,20 1,80 6,00% 22/11/2009 VILLARREAL-VALLADOLID 1,67 1,53 1,62 3-1 10,00 6,70 22/11/2009 MALLORCA-ALMERIA 1,82 1,75 1,73 3-1 10,00 8,20 14,90 74,50% 29/11/2009 VALENCIA-MALLORCA 1,57 1,45 1,53 1-1 10,00 -10,00 29/11/2009 GETAFE-XEREZ 1,57 1,55 1,53 5-1 10,00 5,70 29/11/2009 ATMADRID-ESPAÑOL 1,80 1,75 1,75 4-0 10,00 8,00 13,70 45,67% 05/12/2009 VILLARREAL-GETAFE 1,94 1,75 1,85 3-2 10,00 9,40 05/12/2009 MALLORCA-ZARAGOZA 1,94 1,80 1,85 4-1 10,00 9,40 18,80 94,00% 13/12/2009 GETAFE-TENERIFE 1,80 1,75 1,75 2-1 10,00 8,00 13/12/2009 RACING-XEREZ 1,76 1,65 1,73 3-2 10,00 7,60 15,60 78,00% 120,00 64,80 54,00% These bets have been "virtual". I use the bwin and b365 odds to check they are within the limits you established but to bet I prefer betfair, since it gives slightly better odds. I pasted these directly form my excel table but I can't get it to appear correctly. But the profit is fairly decent. So, I think your system can be applied with some confidence on the Primera division, I think I'll wait to do "real" betting until I get some 3 or 4 more weeks of results. Regards,

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=relf;1551326]Yeah, it's been a pretty bizarre week, especially in EPL where none of the heavy favourites won. Doubt it will happen anytime soon, but if the system can still stay positive after such a 'rare occurrence', it's good enough. That's what I think. But it looks like your stakes next round would be pretty high (due to the high recovery target), so good luck! :hope[/quote] Yes, let's hope that kind of topsy-turvy weekend doesn't happen too often:hope. Regarding the next round of stakes, it won't actually be too bad..... although there was a 44 GBP loss last weekend, the system only tries to recover the square root of the loss, so only 6.58 GBP.... shouldn't break the bank:ok

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=caribe;1551554]Grex, I've been following with interest your system. In fact, I decided to try it on the Spanish 1st division, and these are the results for the last 5 weeks: Date Game Betfair Bwin Bet365 Result Bet Won/LossNet on Day% profit 08/11/2009 SEVILLA - VILLARREAL 1,66 1,6 1,61 3-2 10,00 6,60 08/11/2009 VALLADOLID - XEREZ 1,66 1,55 1,57 0-0 10,00 -10,00 08/11/2009 VALENCIA - ZARAGOZA 1,52 1,45 1,44 3-1 10,00 5,20 1,80 6,00% 22/11/2009 VILLARREAL-VALLADOLID 1,67 1,53 1,62 3-1 10,00 6,70 22/11/2009 MALLORCA-ALMERIA 1,82 1,75 1,73 3-1 10,00 8,20 14,90 74,50% 29/11/2009 VALENCIA-MALLORCA 1,57 1,45 1,53 1-1 10,00 -10,00 29/11/2009 GETAFE-XEREZ 1,57 1,55 1,53 5-1 10,00 5,70 29/11/2009 ATMADRID-ESPAÑOL 1,80 1,75 1,75 4-0 10,00 8,00 13,70 45,67% 05/12/2009 VILLARREAL-GETAFE 1,94 1,75 1,85 3-2 10,00 9,40 05/12/2009 MALLORCA-ZARAGOZA 1,94 1,80 1,85 4-1 10,00 9,40 18,80 94,00% 13/12/2009 GETAFE-TENERIFE 1,80 1,75 1,75 2-1 10,00 8,00 13/12/2009 RACING-XEREZ 1,76 1,65 1,73 3-2 10,00 7,60 15,60 78,00% 120,00 64,80 54,00% These bets have been "virtual". I use the bwin and b365 odds to check they are within the limits you established but to bet I prefer betfair, since it gives slightly better odds. I pasted these directly form my excel table but I can't get it to appear correctly. But the profit is fairly decent. So, I think your system can be applied with some confidence on the Primera division, I think I'll wait to do "real" betting until I get some 3 or 4 more weeks of results. [/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks for your comments Caribe and :welcome to PL. Very interesting stats for this season from the Spanish Primera...... when I did my back-testing over the previous 5 seasons, I could only find a positive trend on the EPL and IA..... the Spanish Primera was all over the place with no consistency. The performance this season is obviously for a relatively small sample, but I will follow it with interest. Of course, if I included the Spanish league, Sod's Law would inevitably apply, and the performance would go pear-shaped ;) By the way, your problem with copying and pasting from Excel is probably down to the explorer you are using..... with Firefox, it's impossible to retain formatting.... try Internet Explorer :ok[/FONT]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1551791][FONT=Comic Sans MS] By the way, your problem with copying and pasting from Excel is probably down to the explorer you are using..... with Firefox, it's impossible to retain formatting.... try Internet Explorer :ok[/FONT][/quote] Thanks very much for your comments Grex. You're right, I'm using Firefox, so now I know what the problem is. I'm going to experiment a little with your limits (1.4 to 1.8). As you hae noticed, there is rarely more than 2 games every weekend that comply with this requirement. I'm going to check what happens by extending it to 2.0. I'll keep you up to date.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites caribe;1551897 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]I think you will find that there are normally 4 to 5 selections per round. During back-testing, there was a definite cut-off at odds of 1.8, but I will be interested to see how the extended range performs..... feel free to post your selections on this thread :ok [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1552028 Trust me..... only 3 this weekend :$.....

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
40			12/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man United		0	1		Aston Villa	1.47		0.00		10.81		23.00			L	-23.00		68%			1,058.38			8.3%		Pinnacle
41			12/12/2009			EPL		Sunderland		1	1		Portsmouth	1.94		0.00		10.81		11.50			L	-11.50		66%			1,046.88			6.6%		Pinnacle
42			13/12/2009			IA		Milan		0	2		Palermo	1.53		0.00		10.81		20.40			L	-20.40		64%			1,026.49			3.6%		Pinnacle
43			13/12/2009			IA		Parma		2	1		Bologna	1.84		0.00		10.81		12.87			W	10.81		65%			1,037.30			5.0%		Pinnacle
44			19/12/2009			EPL		Man City					Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05														Bet365
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo					Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76														Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma					Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46														Bet365

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex, this is the way it looks down here for this weekend:

Jornada	Part.	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365
20/12/2009	SEVILLA-GETAFE	1,63	1,57	1,60
20/12/2009	VILLARREAL-RACING	1,65	1,55	1,60
20/12/2009	BILBAO-OSASUNA	2,12	2,00	2,10
20/12/2009	ESPAÑOL-ALMERIA	2,16	2,00	2,10

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=caribe;1555364]Grex, this is the way it looks down here for this weekend:

Jornada	Part.	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365
20/12/2009	SEVILLA-GETAFE	1,63	1,57	1,60
20/12/2009	VILLARREAL-RACING	1,65	1,55	1,60
20/12/2009	BILBAO-OSASUNA	2,12	2,00	2,10
20/12/2009	ESPAÑOL-ALMERIA	2,16	2,00	2,10

[/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good luck with these, Caribe...... very brave to go as high as 2.16 on this sort of system, but "nothing ventured, nothing gained" as they say :hope [/FONT]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Remember Grex, that this is experimental, the bets are "on paper". In fact, using another "system" I'm working on based on goals, it gives me an 80% probability of an Almeria win on that game.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Today's only selection won.... a close encounter between Man City and Sunderland.... but, unfortunately, Mark Hughes' last match in charge. I feel so sorry for the guy.... as a United player, he was one of my heroes. But I don't think he was ever cut out for top-flight management.... OK, he did well with the Welsh national team, and reasonably well with Blackburn, but with all the financial pressure on him at Man City, he found himself a bit out of his depth. Having said that, he will probably now be groomed to take over from Sir Alex Ferguson, when (if) he retires :rollin. Having seen United's woeful performance against an impressive Fulham today, perhaps that day will be sooner rather than later ;)

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites caribe;1555666 [FONT=Comic Sans MS]I appreciate that these systems (both yours and mine) are paper trials. Interesting that you get an 80% probability of an Almeria victory. My own rating system makes them 50% probability to win.... either way, they are very good value at odds of around 3.5.... but I would prefer to lay Espanol in these cases (prediction of away wins is relatively unreliable) :ok [/FONT]

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=caribe;1555364]Grex, this is the way it looks down here for this weekend:

Jornada	Part.	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365
20/12/2009	SEVILLA-GETAFE	1,63	1,57	1,60
20/12/2009	VILLARREAL-RACING	1,65	1,55	1,60
20/12/2009	BILBAO-OSASUNA	2,12	2,00	2,10
20/12/2009	ESPAÑOL-ALMERIA	2,16	2,00	2,10

[/quote] By the way, Caribe, I think you should always consider odds offered by Pinnacle.... for example, current Pinnacle odds on Villareal are 1.64, and on Espanol are 2.15 (the Sevilla game is finished and the the Ath Bilbao game is postponed). These odds are better than BWin and Bet365, and also better than Betfair after you take 5% commission into account.

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Good weekend, with all 3 selections coming good :cow. The yield is now 9.3%.... probably would be up to around 11% if I could be bothered to hunt down the best available odds, rather than sticking to Bet365 and Pinnacle..... [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT]

No.	[/SIZE]		Date			Lge		H Team		Result			A Team	Odds		Recovery Target		Bank Profit Target		Stake			W/L	P/L		Strike Rate			Bank			Yield
																													1,000.00			START
40			12/12/2009			EPL		[SIZE=1]Man United		0	1		Aston Villa	1.47		0.00		10.81		23.00			L	-23.00		68%			1,058.38			8.3%		Pinnacle
41			12/12/2009			EPL		Sunderland		1	1		Portsmouth	1.94		0.00		10.81		11.50			L	-11.50		66%			1,046.88			6.6%		Pinnacle
42			13/12/2009			IA		Milan		0	2		Palermo	1.53		0.00		10.81		20.40			L	-20.40		64%			1,026.49			3.6%		Pinnacle
43			13/12/2009			IA		Parma		2	1		Bologna	1.84		0.00		10.81		12.87			W	10.81		65%			1,037.30			5.0%		Pinnacle
44			19/12/2009			EPL		Man City		4	3		Sunderland	1.57		2.20		10.37		22.05			W	12.57		66%			1,049.87			6.5%		Bet365
45			20/12/2009			IA		Palermo		1	0		Siena	1.67		2.20		10.37		18.76			W	12.57		67%			1,062.44			7.9%		Pinnacle
46			20/12/2009			IA		Roma		2	0		Parma	1.72		2.20		10.37		17.46			W	12.57		67%			1,075.01			9.3%		Bet365

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites Grex;1556424 Good point Grex. I wans't aware of Pinnacle, so I will take it into account from now on. Again, not too bad results, Although the results are good thanks to extending the limits to around 2.00. I agree with your comment on the Espanol-Almeria bet. I'm still working on the model based on goals. Actually I'm focusing on hitting the 14 games on the spanish quiniela, not just isolated bets.

Part.	Betfair	Bwin	Bet365	Result	Bet	Won/Loss	Net on Day	% profit
SEVILLA-GETAFE	1,63	1,57	1,60	1-2	10,00	-10,00
VILLARREAL-RACING	1,65	1,55	1,60	2-0	10,00	6,50
BILBAO-OSASUNA	2,12	2,00	2,10	2-1	10,00	11,20
ESPAÑOL-ALMERIA	2,16	2,00	2,10	2-0	10,00	11,60	19,3	48,3%
					130,00		64,80	49,85%

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good weekend for the Spanish selections, Caribe..... let's hope it continues to show 49% yield, and then we can all retire ;) [/FONT]

[caribe]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites [quote=Grex;1558009][FONT=Comic Sans MS]Good weekend for the Spanish selections, Caribe..... let's hope it continues to show 49% yield, and then we can all retire ;) [/FONT][/quote] :D, well, Grex, for the time being, let's enjoy the holidays. No games in Spain until next year!!!