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About ultravires

  • Birthday 06/27/1989
  1. Re: Serie A TIM > September 27th - 29th Good lord. He is a few weeks late, but Zeman certainly turned up today. What a calamitous performance by Inter. There isn't much to say about that one, just terrible. A 5 point loss for day with Fiorentina equalising. It seems like no team but Juventus and Roma can be relied upon at the moment.
  2. Re: Serie A TIM > September 27th - 29th The injuries to key players just keep coming for Fiorentina as Cuadrado joins Rossi and Gomez on the sidelines. Since his head was well and truly turned in the Summer he hasn't actually been playing that well, but he is still an explosive threat that will be missed. Fiorentina are a soft team as a whole, and there is definitely a sense that they missed their shot at developing when they were robbed of CL by Milan. They are certainly a tidy side who value possession, but they are lacking in players that can take a match and drive the side on. Torino is a very tough place to get a result and I don't think Fiorentina have the chemistry to do so at the moment. Torino have had some trouble adjusting after losing their two best players, but the functional style of football remains. They are hard-working and have an abundance of decent players. Having had a slow start to the season, I think they have a real chance to move on again in this match. Their energy and tenacity is a good style to ruffle Fiorentina and a counter-based game should be effective. Quagliarella is a good striker and will come good as a leading man. I'm far from overwhelmed by Torini, but I am confident of them getting at Fiorentina, and with full-cover I am happy to take them. Torino (0) - 2.000 - 3 points - Bet365
  3. Re: Serie A TIM > September 27th - 29th There is not a whole lot screaming out IMO and as another week and European fixtures looms, I don't want to get caught out by rotation. For those reasons, Roma are definitely too short, while I am also content to leave Juventus. Inter have until Thursday and with the EL not a huge priority for them at the moment, I will take them to beat Cagliari. I don't think Inter are quite as good as some of their results suggest, but they have had a decent start for sure. It looks like Icardi may be the Argentinian that makes way, with Palacio joining Osvaldo up front. Medel has bedded in well as the holding midfielder, allowing the two alongside him to take the creative burden. Creativity is a bit of an issue for Inter so it's good to see Kovacic starting well, as he has a great deal of craft and vision. Inter's defence is certainly not as good as results suggest but I don't think they will get caught out here. A lot of fuss is always made whenever Zeman takes over a new club, but this Cagliari have not started at all like a typical side of his. Their attacking play has been dreadful and their defending has not been as bad as may be expected. They aren't getting blown away in five goal thrillers, they are just meekly getting brushed aside. They have a huge blow this weekend in that their best midfielder, and captain, Conti not making the squad. That will only have a negative effect on the already low morale. I do still think their front three is a threatening one, but Inter are on an incline at the moment and I can take them on the handicap. Inter -1.25 (AH) - 1.950 - 5 points - Bet365 I'm also taking Torino (0) against Fiorentina, and thinking about Napoli.
  4. Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th It would have been really annoying if Pjanic didn't come to the rescue but it was far from an overwhelming performance from Roma. Totti is still the man, but when teams park like Parma did the other players can't benefit from his vision as much. It is always tough to break down sides that park, but Roma really weren't creating that much sustained pressure and got lucky in the end. They did contain Parma pretty well on the whole, so I don't think a win is unjust. Sooner or later Manolas is going to get himself into PK trouble, when he comes up against some of the better attackers. Definitely a decent result given the injuries. Cagliari look really screwed this season.
  5. Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th Re: Milan - I did think Inzaghi had made a credible start as manager, but his backing of best-mate Bonera is really getting out of hand. He was in the thick of the mess for both goals. It looks like any backing of Milan may as well be coupled with the goals market as there will not be many 1-0 or 2-0 wins for this team. Still, you were a little unfortunate Das as Menez's shot was very nearly a winner. As with afin93, I too am convinced of Roma tonight. Parma don't seem to have settled down this season. Their defence really misses Paletta and Cassani, as they aren't the most solid of sides at the best of times. Lodi has not yet got into his groove as regista, which is typically a very important position for teams like Parma. They don't have searing pace or physical presence. Cassano bailed them out at the weekend and I do see him being able to cause problems for an unsettled Roma defence. Overall though, Roma have both a technical and physical edge over Parma. DDR is out, but Roma are pretty stacked in CM and Nainggolan is on fire at the moment so that shouldn't be an issue. Pjanic is the technical player, and Keita comes somewhere between the two. Together they are a well balanced trio. Totti in for Destro is great because his playmaking will allow Gervinho and Florenzi to start in more dangerous positions, as opposed to doing more themselves from deep. The defence is a slight concern, but Roma should outscore Parma tonight. Roma win - 2.05 - 5 points - Bet365 I think that will be my only play, though I am considering fading Fiorentina, Inter and Napoli.
  6. Re: Serie A > September 23rd - 25th An excellent preview Das, thanks. I am going to wait for a line-up at least before getting on Milan tonight. If neither Menez or El Sha start then I'll probably leave them alone as Honda and Bonaventura are not best suited to exploit the wings - in terms of pace at least. Also, if Bonera starts then that is another negative. I agree with you that the value is already questionable so if these factors don't go how I want them to then it's a no bet for me. Elsewhere, Inter, Napoli and Fiorentina all look terribly short again. Bottom line, they would all take a one goal win, so clearing a -1.25 line does not seem likely. Gomez is injured again, but given how poorly he has played recently, that could be a plus for Fiorentina. I am not sure if I have the nuts to back any of the away sides yet. Samp to beat Chievo looks like a potential play.
  7. Re: Serie A TIM > September 15th - 21st I am going to take Roma on the -1.5 line today. Roma are in good spirits and today is a great opportunity to keep that moving. If they were playing a stubborn minnow today I wouldn't take the line, as whenever they have rotated the front three they have struggled to break down defensive sides. There shouldn't be any of those problems today though because Cagliari aren't that sort of side. Gervinho, Destro and Florenzi are a mixed front three with a little bit of everything. The task is simple: win the ball, move it forward quickly and get something on goal. Cossu, Ibarbo and Sau will be Cagliari's best forward line and will also score goals, but they are yet to play together so it may not be today. All things said, Cagliari have not started well and defending poorly while not being particularly threatening up front is not a good mix when playing Roma at the moment. Roma -1.5 - 1.900 - 6 points - Bet365 Elsewhere all I am doing is having small plays on draws in Chievo-Parma, Genoa-Lazio, Atalanta-Fiorentina, Udinese-Napoli and Torino-Verona. If the +0.5 line reaches 1.8 or above on Udinese and Atalanta then I'll play them directly.
  8. Re: Serie A TIM > September 15th - 21st Milan-Juve is a pure in-play for me. That price on Juve seems like classic trap bait. They are the better XI for sure, but you know how it goes. For potential Verona backers, I watched them against Palermo and they were awful. They struggled to create chances and could not retain the ball. Their goals came from a penalty and a hail mary pass that only resulted in a goal due to some calamitous defending from Palermo. I don't think they are the Verona of last year and I can't see them beating Torino away. Bore draw in my mind.
  9. Re: Serie A TIM > September 15th - 21st This looks like a tough card to me and I can see potential for a lot of draws. Given that it is a post-European commitments weekend, Napoli certainly look too short. Toto is just the man to sniff out a couple of goals in the gaps of that Napoli defence. I'd be inclined to think that Fiorentina are a little slim as well because Atalanta are an extremely functional side. I would expect Roma to bash Cagliari, largely because the away side play very similarly to CSKA who pretty much asked Gervinho and Iturbe to make mince meat of them. The home side are flying high atm but in order to back them I would want Gervinho to start the match. Iturbe is out injured and Totti played 90 minutes so it would be surprising to see him start. I would ideally like to see Ljajic given the third role despite his dreadful form, as he is still a greater attacking threat than Florenzi. If however, the front is Ljajic, Destro, Florenzi I would certainly be less confident. I would usually think about faading Milan against Juventus, but I don't have a good track record for fading Milan. There is a case to be made for almost every match to be a draw.
  10. Re: Serie A TIM > Sunday September 14th I am taking a couple of weeks to get to know the teams more thoroughly this season as I badly misjudged Milan against Lazio. I do like Verona to beat Palermo on Monday though, as had already been mentioned by Divincodino.
  11. Re: Serie A TIM > Sunday September 14th Roma can count themselves pretty fortunate that Empoli didn't have the class required to put them away. It was quite uninspiring from Roma on the whole, which could well be a sign of things to come with matches around their new CL fixtures. Maicon did have two chances to score which would have meant an even more flattering scoreline. Manolas does look like a decent replacement for Benatia though.
  12. Re: Italy > Serie A TIM > 30th - 31st August That was a disaster. Lazio were absolute garbage and HT knocked all of the spark out of Sassuolo-Cagliari.
  13. Re: Italy > Serie A TIM > 30th - 31st August One more for me as I fancy Samp to ruffle Palermo today. There is a degree of uncertainty as I have not watched Palermo since their relegation but they are far from the Palermo of 4 or 5 years ago. They were recently rolled in the Coppa by Modena, with an XI that is not too dissimilar to to how they should lineup today. There is nobody of note in their squad and they are heavily considered to be going back down to Serie B. I am sure Zamparini is already sharpening his sword, which will probably fall within five or six matches. They are a chaotic club and on paper, they don't look equipped for the battle. On the contrary, Samp have had a period of relative stability. They are not world beaters by any means, but they have a solid foundation and one of the more exciting forward lines in the league. There is a nice experience and physicality to their core and their front line will cause opposing defences a lot of issues this season. Okaka is the brute force CF that can hold the ball up, allowing Eder and Sansone to float around. The away side will fancy their chances of picking something up today, taking advantage of the instability of the hosts. They are superior in every area and I am content to take them on a positive line. Sampdoria +0.25 - 2.00 - 4 points. Sampdoria win - 3.30 - 1 point. Bet365.
  14. Re: Italy > Serie A TIM > 30th - 31st August Given the long-awaited return there is a lot that tempts me this weekend. First off Lazio away to Milan. The woes of the home side are well known, both on and off the pitch. Inzaghi is inexperienced and the players available do not seem to suit a 4-3-3. Defensively they are a joke. Armero and Alex will probably come good, but for the time being there could be some confusion. Bonera and Zapata are both capable of giving up a goal in their own calamitous way. The midfield and attack are both decent but still lacking. The midfield lacks creativity and even if Cristante does get a good look in, he is inexperienced and will not control matches yet. Up front, Honda doesn't suit playing out wide, Menez is washed up and one-dimensional, and El Sha has a lot to prove and Pazzini is the only true CF, but at best is worth 10 goals. The players and formation do not form a cohesive team, and they lack individual quality. Milan are very likely to struggle this season. Lazio have had a very decent Summer. Recruited well for their formation, and they have the makings of a very decent team. The defence is still a bit unsettled as Basta and De Vrij are integrated, but it has the makings of being an ok back 4. Parolo, Biglia and Lulic is a well balanced midfield 3, offering a little bit of everything. Up front Candreva and Keita provide direct width with Klose or Djorjevic playing the CF role. Contrary to Milan, that group of players is very well suited to a 4-3-3 and that should tell on the day. Neither is very suited to controlling a game but I think Lazio are the more dangerous and well worth backing. Lazio +0.5 - 1.900 - 6 points - Bet365 Lazio win - 3.75 - 2 points - Bet365 If ever goals were to be expected in a game then it is surely Sassuolo - Cagliari. Zeman's style is well known and he never ever changes. Di Francesco is also known to have been influenced by Zeman. Both defences are an absolute wreck, and both sides will concede so many goals this season. Cagliari probably edge the midfield as Conti is a leader and Ekdal and Cristieg are decent all-rounders. Biondini is a hack of a destroyer and Kurtic is the only midfielder that possesses any craft for Sassuolo. Neither midfield is capable of controlling a match though and therefore neither manager tries to do so. Moving the ball quickly through to the attacking trio is the name of the game, and in the attacking third is where you will find the best players of both teams. Berardi, Sansone and Zaza is a young, exciting trio with pace and explosive finishing. For Cagliari, Cossu is a crafty no.10, previously their best player and Sau has good movement and finishing. Farias is a new signing, but he is likely to be very direct. Unfortunately it doesn't look like Ibarbo is ready to play yet. Every season one or two strikers explode under Zeman's management, and it is likely to be him. I give the home side the edge 1X2-wise, purely because of the extent which Zeman plays gung-ho football and their edge up front. It will surely be an exciting game to watch. Over 2.75 - 1.925 - 6 points Over 4.5 - 5.00 - 1 point Sassuolo - 1.5 - 4.150 - 1 point All Bet365
  15. Re: Italy > Serie A TIM > 30th - 31st August I think the missing players are very important for Juve, but it shouldn't stop them scraping past Chievo. Ogbonna, Bonucci, Caceres is definitely not an ideal back three. If Chievo decide to dig in, which they probably will, I don't see Juve blowing them away. I think Juve may well start slowly, so personally I will wait and try to catch them at HT as they should be able to overpower Chievo eventually.
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