RJSmith92 Posted February 11, 2012 Share Posted February 11, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 169 bets; +18.5% yield Hey Grex, Just discovered your system's a couple of days ago and already made a nice little profit following your picks :) Just curious how your systems fair in other leagues when it performs so well in the EPL and Serie A, I read earlier that you back tested this system after dropping the Championship and that's when you started with Serie A. Did the other leagues perform that bad that it's not worth betting? Thanks and keep up the good work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 12, 2012 Author Share Posted February 12, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 169 bets; +18.5% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Hi, RJSmith, and :welcometo PL The system started off as overs and unders selections for EP, EC and E1. The E1 was dropped in November 2010 because it produced very few selections, and wasn't performing very well. Serie A was introduced when the E1 was dropped. The system is based on fairly simple criteria and, during back-testing, the above leagues performed well with simple and logical cut-off criteria..... no other major European leagues fitted the bill. I could probably do some "force-fitting" to find criteria for other leagues, but this never works. So, I will just stick with good ol' dependable EP, EC and IA [/FONT];) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 169 bets; +18.5% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]With the Napoli game score 2-0 at HT, it looked promising.... but it wasn't to be :\ [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 17, 2012 Author Share Posted February 17, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield Just one for the weekend..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield Sorry Grex but iv copied your layout for my table haha, I hope you dont mind! Keep up the good work! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]No problems, Banner..... I never got round to taking out a "copyright" on it :p However, I notice in your "Home Favourites System" that you have left out the all-important column on "yield". This is the statistic that the success (or failure) of any system is usually judged by. I assume you are using Excel for your tables.... it's quite easy to inser a formula to automatically display the yield.[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saint Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2115805]Just one for the weekend..... [/QUOTE] the odds are wrong on this arent they the overs is 1.8 and above (1.66 on your table) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 18, 2012 Author Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield I will obviously have to increase the font size on my tables...... the posted odds in the table for >2.5 are 1.88 as published by Pinnacle yesterday evening ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 18, 2012 Share Posted February 18, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield No need to shout !!!! :rollin Big thanks for tonights pick Grex , doubled Juve with Xanthi Unders :cigar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorro Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield yeah todays game was a lovely result :ok the red card of Motta did certainly give the game a boost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 170 bets; +17.8% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Nice combo, JTW :ok. Yes, Lorro.... the red card probably contributed to the last 2 goals to beat the >2.5 and >3.5. Hope the slightly increased font size helps, Saint ;) [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]I just had a quick look at the overall performance for this season (not a lot else to do in Ankara with snow and temperatures of minus 10 degC) and, to be honest, it's rather disappointing. Last season (2010-2011), the yield for "over 2.5" was 22.5%, and for "over 3.5" it was 41.2%. This season (so far), the corresponding yields are 8.1% and 19.3%. Conclusion ?...... it's not a consistent system.... but it is still profitable ;)[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lahrio Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield The season isn't over yet Grex, still time for that yield to go up. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Lahrio;2116611 ..... or go down. I'm an eternal pessimist :sad ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Why not Udinese today Grex!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Banner;2116633 [FONT=comic sans ms]Simple..... because the game doesn't qualify for "overs" according to my system. [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Of course! I have added Yield to my system and its very low! Because of the high stakes, I think maybe just backing 5 teams may work better that I deem to have a high chance of winning! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Banner..... I think you may be confusing things a little. This is an "overs" thread, not a "homes" thread, like yours. I presume that's why you originally mentioned Udinese (as a home win???) [/FONT]:unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Woods Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Grex, how many games last season ? In the great scheme of things, one season's games aren't that many but even if your overall yield fell to 10% over the course of a 1000 games that would be an amazing achievement. I don't think you appreciate how well you're doing. It's a pretty rare thing to make anything like your yield and you should be proud of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 19, 2012 Author Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Thanks for the kind words, Mr. Woods (sorry.. sounds a bit formal) In the 2010-2011 season there were 120 selections. This season to date, there have been 51 selections. At the same stage of the 2010-2011 season (i.e. mid-February) there had been approximately 85 selections. So, this season is much slower in terms of selections... and also in terms of yield. I can't explain this anomaly... I am using the same selection criteria. :unsure[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Banner Posted February 19, 2012 Share Posted February 19, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Yes I realized that after I wrote it haha, but thanks for the advise :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]I posted a graph on my "Homes" thread showing the variation in Profit since the start of the system. I thought I would do the same for "Overs"...... the Over 3.5 and Over 2.5 mirror the same trend, but both are certainly a bit more volitile (up-and-down) than the "Homes".... interesting :zzz [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 23, 2012 Author Share Posted February 23, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]This weekend's overs..... [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scapegoat Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield Hello, bookmark this thread olready, keep posting Grex. And pardon me, if my english is bad, anyway i want to ask you some questions regarding this system : 1. Is it safe to use this system if my bank is low. I know in a big picture your system is making profit. I just afraid that my bankroll for using this system to succeed is not 'big picture' enough. 2. If im not mistaken. from 171 games. starting bankroll is 100. you ended up with 400. Its 400% profit. But in your table, collumn 'yield' is 18,2%. What is yield ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]Hi, Scapegoat.... and :welcometo Punters Lounge. Regarding question (1).... everything is relative - if you had followed the system with a starting bank of 10,000 units, with a flat stake of 1,000 units, then your current bank would be 41,180 units :loon. At the other end of the scale, if you had started with a bank of 10 units, and betting 1 unit, your current bank would be 41 units. So your level of commitment depends (a) on the amount of money you can afford to lose, and (b) your nerve ;) Regarding question (2).... yes, the profit is 400%. But it is usual to measure the performance of a system in terms of "yield" = profit/total amount staked (expressed as a percentage).[/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 26, 2012 Author Share Posted February 26, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [FONT=comic sans ms]A reasonable weekend...... [/FONT] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Filthy Logic Posted February 26, 2012 Share Posted February 26, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 171 bets; +18.2% yield [QUOTE=Grex;2120330][FONT=comic sans ms]A reasonable weekend...... [/FONT] [/QUOTE] and the bank keeps on rising :cow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scapegoat Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 174 bets; +18.7% yield Nicceeeee :) Any midweek pick ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seydou86 Posted February 27, 2012 Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 174 bets; +18.7% yield HelloGrex I would like to make a selection on the Under/ over. do you know website to find the number of goals for Home and number of team goal for away team (goal average) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted February 27, 2012 Author Share Posted February 27, 2012 Re: Grex's OVERS; 174 bets; +18.7% yield [QUOTE=Scapegoat;2120545]Nicceeeee :) Any midweek pick ?[/QUOTE] [FONT=comic sans ms]Doubtful..... there aren't any midweek matches in the EP, EC or IA ;) [/FONT] [QUOTE=seydou86;2120650]HelloGrex I would like to make a selection on the Under/ over. do you know website to find the number of goals for Home and number of team goal for away team (goal average)[/QUOTE] I am sure there are loads of such sites..... but I tend to download all my historical data from football-data.co.uk and work out the relevant statistics from scratch in Excel :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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