Grex's OVERS; 283 bets; +12.1% yield

[Grex]

Despite the stupid title, this is a serious attempt to make some profit out of the O/U 2.5 market. Based on backtesting starting from the 2002/03 season, I have developed an O/U probability "equation" for matches in the English Premier, Championship and League 1. Having predicted the probability, the value of the O/U odds being offered can be calculated. Selections will be based on a range of value percentages (all >100%) that have produced the best performance during backtesting. I don't expect incredible yield, but any profit would be nice. ;) There doesn't seem to be any advantage in waiting until the season has "matured" i.e. after 6 rounds of matches, so I will start posting selections as from this weekend. This is a trial only..... no real money, please :dude

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Glad you are back! Will follow with interest!

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Relf..... nice to hear from you. I will also continue the "Short Priced Home Favourites" thread, but not until after 6 rounds of matches. Are you going to continue your "Close Games" thread?..... it looked very promising :clap

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Hmm, I'm still in the midst of finding way to further improve the 'Close Games' system. Might tweak the selection criterion slightly, and German Bundesliga could be added as well. Hopefully I can find time to complete my back-testing before the season kicks off. (Thankfully the rest of countries kick off later, unlike EPL.)

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Good luck with the Bundesliga, Relf..... I have tried to include it in all the various systems I have developed, but that League seems to be a law unto itself.... it does not seem to follow the statistical pattern of other leagues.

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Well, after all the hype, not a single selection this weekend. [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] Usually the system selects on average about 15% of matches, so this is very strange. Probably next weekend, we will have 100% selections :tongue2

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) OK... we have some this weekend. Apologies for not producing my usual colourful tables yet.... I will try to sort it out for next weekend English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 Odds from Pinnacle Stakes: 10 units on each selection Good luck :hope

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) All the best for your selections. Will pay more attention to these matches tomorrow. ;)

[skycity]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Hope a good opening this weekend!:clap

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) [quote=Grex;1746286]OK... we have some this weekend. Apologies for not producing my usual colourful tables yet.... I will try to sort it out for next weekend English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 Odds from Pinnacle Stakes: 10 units on each selection Good luck :hope[/quote] Would have been 100% if not for a last minute penalty... What can I say? AMAZING! :notworthy:notworthy:notworthy

[skycity]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Indeed!! Very impressive!

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) [quote=Grex;1746286] English Premier 14/08 Aston Villa - West Ham OVER @ 2.17 3-0 :ok 14/08 Sunderland - Birmingham OVER @ 2.29 2-2 :ok 14/08 Wigan - Blackpool OVER @ 2.20 0-4 :ok 14/08 Wolves - Stoke OVER @ 2.40 2-1 :ok Championship 14/08 Portsmouth - Reading UNDER @ 1.84 1-1 :ok 14/08 Scunthorpe - Norwich UNDER @ 1.90 0-1 :ok 14/08 Watford - Coventry UNDER @ 1.88 2-2 :eyes [/quote] [FONT=Comic Sans MS]Thanks, Relf and Skycity (and congratulations on Blackburn's victory, Relf :ok). A yield (Return on Investment) of 97% is a good start.... but let's not get carried away..... beginner's luck I'm sure[/FONT] ;)

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) The pretty tables are back !! By the way, I made a mistake by quoting 97% yield in yesterday's post..... it's only 83% :spank

	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield
																																			1,000.00
	1			14/08/2010			EPL			Aston Villa			3	0			West Ham			O			2.17			10.00			W			11.70			1,011.70			117%
	2			14/08/2010			EPL			Sunderland			2	2			Birmingham			O			2.29			10.00			W			12.90			1,024.60			123%
	3			14/08/2010			EPL			Wigan			0	4			Blackpool			O			2.20			10.00			W			12.00			1,036.60			122%
	4			14/08/2010			EPL			Wolves			2	1			Stoke			O			2.40			10.00			W			14.00			1,050.60			127%
	5			14/08/2010			EC			Portsmouth			1	1			Reading			U			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,059.00			118%
	6			14/08/2010			EC			Scunthorpe			0	1			Norwich			U			1.90			10.00			W			9.00			1,068.00			113%
	7			14/08/2010			EC			Watford			2	2			Coventry			U			1.88			10.00			L			-10.00			1,058.00			83%

[scouse]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) This is my main bets on football now but i only do the overs so will follow with interest. Top start m8 and good luck for the coming season.

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Scouse..... I would be interested to know how you select your "overs"..... a system, or a "gut feeling" ?

[scouse]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Mostly gut feeling and of course reading posts like yours and jtw1 ;)

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) I hope your guts serve you well, Scouse !..... and please don't rely too much on my selections... it's only a trial and very early days ;)

[BuLLeT06]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) :ok

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) :welcome to PL, Bullet06..... I am honoured that you put your first post on this thread.... I like your style.... straight to the point... no wasted words ;)

[PERFECT]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) [quote=Grex;1748156]

	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield
																																			1,000.00
	1			14/08/2010			EPL			Aston Villa			3	0			West Ham			O			2.17			10.00			W			11.70			1,011.70			117%
	2			14/08/2010			EPL			Sunderland			2	2			Birmingham			O			2.29			10.00			W			12.90			1,024.60			123%
	3			14/08/2010			EPL			Wigan			0	4			Blackpool			O			2.20			10.00			W			12.00			1,036.60			122%
	4			14/08/2010			EPL			Wolves			2	1			Stoke			O			2.40			10.00			W			14.00			1,050.60			127%
	5			14/08/2010			EC			Portsmouth			1	1			Reading			U			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,059.00			118%
	6			14/08/2010			EC			Scunthorpe			0	1			Norwich			U			1.90			10.00			W			9.00			1,068.00			113%
	7			14/08/2010			EC			Watford			2	2			Coventry			U			1.88			10.00			L			-10.00			1,058.00			83%

[/quote] Superb start! :clap:clap:clap :hope

[BuLLeT06]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Have you excel table for that? Thanks!

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) PERFECT;1750400 Thanks, Perfect.... as I said, I'm sure it is only beginners luck... shall we see :hope [quote=BuLLeT06;1750456]Have you excel table for that? Thanks![/quote] Do you mean for the presentation of results, or for identifying the selections ?

[BuLLeT06]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Grex, for identifying the selections. I tested much Over/Under sistems. Sorry for my english. Thanks!

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) I would prefer to keep the "mathematics" of the selection system confidential.... if it turns out to produce consistent profit then, perhaps, I will "go public". :ok

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Only four selections this weekend.... let's hope it's quality that counts, not quantity :hope

	No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield
																																			1,000.00
	1			14/08/2010			EP			Aston Villa			3	0			West Ham			O			2.17			10.00			W			11.70			1,011.70			117%
	2			14/08/2010			EP			Sunderland			2	2			Birmingham			O			2.29			10.00			W			12.90			1,024.60			123%
	3			14/08/2010			EP			Wigan			0	4			Blackpool			O			2.20			10.00			W			12.00			1,036.60			122%
	4			14/08/2010			EP			Wolves			2	1			Stoke			O			2.40			10.00			W			14.00			1,050.60			127%
	5			14/08/2010			EC			Portsmouth			1	1			Reading			U			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,059.00			118%
	6			14/08/2010			EC			Scunthorpe			0	1			Norwich			U			1.90			10.00			W			9.00			1,068.00			113%
	7			14/08/2010			EC			Watford			2	2			Coventry			U			1.88			10.00			L			-10.00			1,058.00			83%
	8			21/08/2010			EP			Birmingham							Blackburn			O			2.56			10.00
	9			21/08/2010			EP			Wigan							Chelsea			U			2.31			10.00
	10			21/08/2010			EC			Coventry							Derby			U			1.85			10.00
	11			21/08/2010			EC			Preston							Portsmouth			U			1.89			10.00

[vratislav]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Bravo Grex , I m following you , too .

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) It seems to me that Birmingham/Blackburn is more likely to be Unders, and Wigan/Chelsea is more likely to be Overs. But I guess the odds represent some value. Good luck too!

[relf]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Congratulations on another profitable weekend, regardless of Chelsea's result. :clap

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) Thanks, Relf.... sorry about Blackburn. Well, with Chelsea currently winning 3-0, that bet is lost.... so, it is 2 wins, 2 losses with a positive yield on the day of 11%. Not quite up to last weekend's standards, but a profit is a profit. :) [FONT=Comic Sans MS][/FONT] I'll post the updated table later.

[Grex]

Re: UNDER or OVER (as the actress said to the bishop) The updated table....

No.			Date			LGE			H Team							A Team			Bet			Odds			Stake			W/L			Return			Bank			Yield
																																		1,000.00
1			14/08/2010			EP			Aston Villa			3	0			West Ham			O			2.17			10.00			W			11.70			1,011.70			117%
2			14/08/2010			EP			Sunderland			2	2			Birmingham			O			2.29			10.00			W			12.90			1,024.60			123%
3			14/08/2010			EP			Wigan			0	4			Blackpool			O			2.20			10.00			W			12.00			1,036.60			122%
4			14/08/2010			EP			Wolves			2	1			Stoke			O			2.40			10.00			W			14.00			1,050.60			127%
5			14/08/2010			EC			Portsmouth			1	1			Reading			U			1.84			10.00			W			8.40			1,059.00			118%
6			14/08/2010			EC			Scunthorpe			0	1			Norwich			U			1.90			10.00			W			9.00			1,068.00			113%
7			14/08/2010			EC			Watford			2	2			Coventry			U			1.88			10.00			L			-10.00			1,058.00			83%
8			21/08/2010			EP			Birmingham			2	1			Blackburn			O			2.56			10.00			W			15.60			1,073.60			92%
9			21/08/2010			EP			Wigan			0	6			Chelsea			U			2.31			10.00			L			-10.00			1,063.60			71%
10			21/08/2010			EC			Coventry			2	1			Derby			U			1.85			10.00			L			-10.00			1,053.60			54%
11			21/08/2010			EC			Preston			1	0			Portsmouth			U			1.89			10.00			W			8.90			1,062.50			57%