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Weekly Naps Competition, Day 3, Tuesday 28th July 2015


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Goodwood 2:00 Blue Surf @ 22/1 bet365 e/w thanks Blue Surf....from Amanda Perrett yard the 6yo is a C&D winner and he has also ran in a number of place finishes , since it first started racing he's been pencil in since 2011 to come to this meeting every year He has won four times from 1m 2f to 1m 4f on ground varying from good to firm to heavy so conditions will not matter today, the yard sent it out 31 days ago at Newcastle 2m good going, he ran poor finishing 18th of 19 runners for his 2nd race this season after winning his first race of the season last month at Epsom 12f , For me I feel as they come here every year I would think that poor run the yard were looking as a prep race and stamina build up for today with Pat Dobbs getting back in saddle as he been regular jockey and won on first race this season but yard changed to Paul Mulrennan for last race and now back to Pat Dobbs

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Goodwood 4.20 Humidor (10/1 bet365 bog) If non runner Goodwood 3.45 Astronereus Humidor has won 3 times here at Goodwood and is running well at the moment. He was beaten by Double Up last time out, but he was giving him 2lbs that day. Today there is a turn around in the weights of 5lb in his favour. Back in 2011 he won a class 1 and is the only runner in today’s race to have done so

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Gd 2.35 - Palawan - EW at 20/1 bog betvictor Group 2 Vintage Stakes The Hannon yard usually run a couple in this and in the last 5 years they've had 4 winners and a 2nd. It's fair to say that it's a race they target So it's a bit surprising that this year they're only running one horse and it's currently the outsider of the field With a stable full of 2yo to choose from you wonder what's going on ? I'm banking that my selection is better than he's shown so far as he certainly hasn't got the form in the book yet Only 8 runners left so fingers crossed for no more NR

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5.35 Worcester: Tri Nations EW 22/1 Skybet/BetVic Cant fancy anything at a price at Worcester, my only real bet would be Strongly Suggested but he's is only 2/1 so will instead go for an outsider in the opening race. Tri Nations hasn't won for ages and is now with Harriet Bethell, his umpteenth trainer. Finished last at Market Rasen last time but ran much better than the final result might suggest. Had earlier ran ok at Southwell off a mark of 91 and now comes here on just 79! Might be barking up the wrong tree here but cant resist at the prices.

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W4.05 Jumbo Prado 16/1 Ladbrokes All 3 of the horses career wins (and most of its placed efforts) have come at this course. The current trainer has only had the horse for 3 runs, but the 2nd of those runs suggest the horse could be primed to go close here back at its favourite track - the horse was 2nd in that run at 20/1 and staying on over a shorter trip having raced too wide round the bend and a similar performance here with a better ride could see it go very close indeed.

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4.55 Goodwood This is for you ew 33/1 bet365 In the 2yo maiden balding doesn't exactly have an amazing record , 3 places from 17 runners in the but cause for optimism for This is for you @ 33/1 Bit green and unsettled on debut but should come on for that initial exercise , by paco boy a course winner from 2 starts , other was 2.5L defeat in a grp2 Selection half brother jonny mudball placed twice only 3/4L behind on its two visits to course so should handle this course , no horse higher than 10/1 sp has won this so might get a place or come down the field but @ 33/1 , worth a go with no real superstars in this line up

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6.50 Galway: Galway Topaz Mile Dermot Weld's runner proves popular for many reasons. Surely the lightly raced Stay The Night is primed and bound for a big run. But in a competitive race like this you have to oppose him at the given prices. In my mind Aussie Valentine is a huge price given the excellent improvement he has shown in some tough handicaps this season. A bit unlucky in the Lincoln, when runner-up behind an exciting improver, he made no mistake at Leopardstown subsequently. The Alleged Stakes came a bit too soon after those big races and he didn't show his true form. Back off a break today should suit him well. He usually runs best when fresh. More rain is expected which is surely in his favour and the trip is perfect too. Obviously the track is an unknown and the draw a concern, but at this price something I can live with. Aussie Valentine @ 25/1 Bet365

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