Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

[richard-westwood]

left it late as poss to do final ratings .......ill have a bash now . epsom derby golden horn 99.56 jack hobbs 99.31 giovanni canneletto 99.24 elm park 99.19 zawraq 99 19 epicuris 99.17 very difficult race to weigh up this year .....nothing really has sparkled and stamped its authority on the race but ratings suggest that the horse nearest to the average winner (100.12 ) is golden horn ....all the others are going to have to improve significantly 15/8 isnt a fantastic price now even though he will most likely win ...so the value most probably lies elsewhere ....of the others the value horse looks to be giovanni canneletto who has the scope and pedigree to be much better at 12f and has been heavily backed in recent days ..a good sign . the 8/1 with paddyp looks the value bet of the race ew now .....epicuris and elm park also have possibilitys of improving on previous runs but if golden horn improves as expected then he should be very hard to beat golden horn 10 pts win 15/8 will hill

[Custom Cut]

Re: flat racing sat 6th june epsom derby Completely agree Aidy, bar Golden Horn I think this one has the best form in the race, just a shame it comes on heavy. Condon did say at Leopardstown the last day that he is much better on soft (evidently didn't try to stop the owner splashing the cash though), but I think he only has to cope with the good to place and if he goes as well as on soft I genuinely think he has an outstanding chance. All the breeding people say he won't stay but having been going away at the line over 10 furlongs I think it's a bit silly to cling to the breeding when we have that evidence. Looked like there was plenty for Condon to work on with him too with his tendency to try and hang down the straight and hopefully he brings even more out of him. People have been dismissive of what he's beaten but the second last time, by 10 lengths, had beaten Hans Holbein by 6 lengths in his first start of the campaign on heavy ground and also was a half length off Diamondsandrubies and Pleascach in a listed race, form which has obviously worked out extremely well.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: flat racing sat 6th june epsom derby Can't believe Aidan O'Brien has lots of people fooled AGAIN! Yipp he really is a master poker player & the target for Giovanni Canaletto has ALWAYS been today ''The Derby'' Just look at his last run at Curragh running over 1m 2f - the further he went the greater he looked, when they passed the winning post Sir Ryan was on the brakes trying not to give much away. And if you watch the race again the big colt was not even blowing, it was NOTHING more than a racecourse gallop for him, connections and all concerned lost ABSOLUTELY NOTHING with that defeat, he will show his true colours today on the Big Theatre at Epsom. Positives - Trip, Going, Trainer, Sir Ryan Moore up. Negative - 0 4:30 Epsom ''The Derby'' - G I O V A N N I . C A N A L E T T OOOOOOOOOOOOOO! :cigar

[BillyHills]

Re: flat racing sat 6th june epsom derby ?Saturday’s Racing Action – Scoop 6 A big week for the Tote Scoop6 with the added interest of the Epsom Derby, which should bring in some extra business. All six races will come from Epsom with the first four on Channel 4. No winner last week so the win fund will start at £194.414 Leg 1: 2.00 Epsom: C4 A class 2 handicap over 10f gets us off the mark and the top two in the market Stravagante and Resonant look the likely improvers and will be hard to beat. Resonant is on a hat-trick after victories at Newmarket and Goodwood and trainer Mark Johnston remains in cracking form. I like horses that have experienced similar tracks and Goodwood form often works out here at Epsom. The Stoute runner Stravagante was beaten a mile when third to Jack Hobbs at Sandown last time but is respected. Cosmic Ray ran well here back in April and is worth a second look at a bigger price. Selection: Resonant 4/1 >Paddy Power (Cosmic Ray) Leg 2: 2.35 Epsom: C4 The second leg is the Woodcote Stakes, a 2yo sprint over 6f with eight previous winners out of the ten runners. All the talk this season has been about the Mark Johnston youngsters and he saddles a couple here in Aleko and Buratino. The former won on his debut at Haydock recently while Buratino has had more experience and ran well in a Listed contest last time and is preferred on this occasion. The Hannon 2yo Nelspruit is feared for a yard that have won this the last two years. Selection: Buratino 4/1 >William Hill (Nelspruit) Leg 3: 3.45 Epsom: C4 Perhaps the most competitive contest of the whole day, the Epsom Dash was once labelled the fastest horse race in the world and we 20 runners declared for this year’s renewal. There’s is no doubt high numbers have an advantage at Epsom so unless you can escape quickly from a low number you will be counting on a bit of luck. Caspian Prince is quick away and should just about lead from stall 14, he won this last year but is a lot higher in the weights now. Perfect Muse is in 16 and should be able to get a handy position just behind the leaders, he’s one of two Clive Cox runners that could go well (Seeking Magic). The likes of Confessional and Duke Of Firenze will be looking for room late on and might grab a piece of the action. Selection: Perfect Muse 14/1 >Bet365 (Caspian Prince) Leg 4: 4.30 Epsom: The Epsom Derby C4 Just 12 runners line up for the Derby and I have to say it doesn’t look one of the strongest renewals in recent times. We have to start with the two John Gosden runners, firstly Golden Horn looks a worthy favourite after his demolition job in the Dante last time out, Frankie takes over in the saddle and I cant see anything with better form going into the race. Jack Hobbs was slightly disappointing at York and might be a better proposition later in the season. As usual Aidan O’Brien throws a few darts at the Derby target, he’s won the last three so should know what it takes. Moore is on Giovanni Canaletto and that’s good enough for me as far as the Irish challenge is concerned. Of the others Elm Park could nick a place and Storm The Stars is a lively 25/1 shot to consider in a Derby that lacks depth. Selection: Golden Horn 7/4 Betway (Giovanni Canaletto) Leg 5: 5.15 Epsom RUK A class 2 handicap over the Derby course and 20 runners declared. We have four previous course winners and the one I like of those is Jakey trained by Pat Phelan. He was second here last time to Lungarno Palace on his seasonal debut, he better of at the weights now and will be spot on for this. Montaly is interesting for Andrew Balding, he has been gelded since last season and ran ok in his warm up race at Chelmsford and should now be ready to deliver the goods with the hood on for the first time. Selection: Jakey 14/1 >Betfair (Montaly) Leg 6: 5.50 Epsom RUK The final leg is a 6f sprint handicap and last years winner Ashpan Sam carries top weight. He’s 3lbs lower than last year so must have a chance and has Richard Hughes in the saddle taking over from Ryan Moore. I thinks its quite interesting that Moore is on Pearl Blue for David O’Meara this time and the horse ran well on his first start for the yard at Chester last week. Hopes N Dreams is a course and distance winner but is drawn 13, which hinders his chances while Swiss Cross would have a squeak on some of his old form. Selection: Pearl Blue 8/1 Coral (Ashpan Sam)

[Trotter]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby Crikey......... Eddie Fremantle tipped Qualify at the beginning of the RUK coverage this afternoon when it was about 100/1.........:nana Well done 'The Shoe'......

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby He's a master Poker player Aidy. Nobody knows what's behind those dark glasses, some say he's actually the Stig in his spare time. He's a bloody Genius. A Genius is a person who displays exceptionally superior intellectual ability, creativity, or originality, typically to a degree that is associated with the achievement of new advances in a domain of knowledge. A scholar in many subjects or a scholar in a single subject may be referred to as a genius.^[1] There is no scientifically precise definition of genius, and the question of whether the notion itself has any real meaning has long been a subject of debate, although psychologists are converging on a definition that emphasizes creativity and eminent achievement.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 345 epsom dash seeking magic 99.34 perfect muse 99.23 humidor 99.17 typical start to the epsom meeting with shock results etc ....may as well stick with the top two here as seeking magic posted a decent time lto so sets the standard but perfect muse is an improving type and may run better today seeking magic 4 pts win 8/1 lads perfect muse 4 pts win 10/1 bet365

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 4.30 Epsom: English Derby, Group 1, 1m 4f 10y Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it's more whether he's able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it. Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn't produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close. Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn't do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He'll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance. Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He's a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he's fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby. Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn't really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground. Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he's quick enough to win the Derby. Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby. Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn't fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious. Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn't mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead. Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree. Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow. Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last. Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable. I admit I'm not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don't see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He's a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order. However it's clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he's still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big - therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He's clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters. Giovanni Canaletto @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 5.40 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap, 1m The final race on Doncaster's card is all but exciting. But "tracker horse" Oracolo has an entry and I'm inclined to give him a second chance. I was already keen on the son of Cape Cross when he made his seasonal debut at Newmarket last month, but that seemed more like a public gallop for the four year old, in order to blow the cobwebs away. Oracolo appeals as the type likely to improve with age and experience, so the Newmarket outing may have done him the world of good. Still a lightly raced gelding, last year he needed three attempts to get off the mark, finished third in a good Redcar maiden and then went on to win at Wolverhampton in what was quite a decent race. It'll be only his second start in Handicap company here at Doncaster, over a trip and fast ground likely to suit perfectly on pedigree. He also has also been gelded over the winter, which sometimes needs a run or two to really make an impact. In a nutshell: I think in this underwhelming field Oracolo has a prime chance to go really close off a pretty fair mark. Oracolo @ 8/1 Coral - 5pts Win

[beaker1]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 2.00 Epsom – Investec Private Banking Stakes (Handicap) Sir Michael Stoute’s Stravagante has not done a great deal wrong in his short career to date and had the misfortune of running into Derby contender Jack Hobbs on his most recent start. He got off the mark at the second time of asking over a mile in October, keeping on well in the closing stages to win by one and three-quarter lengths at the line. Last time he suffered interference on the bend at Sandown and he got shuffled back but he ran on to the line and did enough to suggest he is worth keeping on side going forward. He looks to have strong claims again here if he can overcome an inconvenient draw out in stall 11. Also of interest is Marcus Tregoning’s Shaakis who won on his seasonal debut at Chelmsford in April before chasing home a smart rival at Sandown later that month. He shaped on that latest outing as though a step up on trip would suit even though on paper he is far from guaranteed to stay any further. He is clearly progressive and had he not run into Mutarakez at Sandown last time he would have been two from two this season. He is drawn well in stall 3 and looks likely to be thereabouts at the business end of the race. However, it might be best to side with Ed Dunlop’s DUTCH UNCLE who was third in the London Gold Cup last time, a race that historically has thrown up smart performers. He ran well for a long way but was probably beaten by a couple of Group performers in Time Test and Dissolution on the day. He looks likely to go well again this time and Frankie Dettori has been booked to ride the colt. This is only his seventh start and he is entitled to still be improving, so looks the one to side with. 2.35 Epsom – Investec Woodcote Stakes (Listed Race) Mark Johnston won this race four years ago with Fulbright and he fires two darts at it this year, with preference for Buratino. He made a taking debut at Chelmsford at the end of March where he beat a well-regarded member of the Richard Fahey yard by three and a half lengths. He was no match for Log Out Island on his next start before getting the better of Hugo Palmer’s Gifted Master at Newmarket. He chased home King Of Rooks in Listed company last week and although he is one of the more exposed members of the field, he has the best form to date and should be respected. Ralph Beckett may not be known for training precocious two-year-olds but he looks to have one on his hands here in the shape of Miss Moneypenny. She was third on debut at Newmarket behind Martyn Meade’s Kurland and took a big step forward next time to win with a bit in hand at Windsor. The form has already been franked with the third having come out and won since and receiving the fillies allowance, she looks a major player. In truth I would fancy her more had she not been drawn in stall 10, which looks likely to be a major inconvenience but nevertheless she should still go close. Therefore it might be best to go with Richard Hannon’s NELSPRUIT who was beaten by a rare Ed Dunlop first time out winner on debut at Newbury. The Hannon team have won that particular race with some smart performers in the past including Canford Cliffs and he looked a little more forward than the yard’s horses have been this season. He justified a short price at Goodwood next time where he made hard work of things but the drop back to five furlongs would not have been in his favour on that occasion. He has a plum draw in stall two and back over six furlongs he looks the one they all have to beat. 3.10 Epsom – Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1) Well this race promises to be a good one to watch but for me there isn’t much to be gained in having a bet here. In terms of the likely outcome, this promises to be a two-horse race on the ratings between the two French raiders DOLNIYA and Flintshire. The pair have faced each other on their last two starts with Alain De Royer-Dupre’s filly coming out on top on both occasions. If anything the filly widened the gap at Meydan last time and in truth it is hard to see Flintshire reversing the placings. He does have the advantage of being around here before as he chased home Cirrus Des Aigles in this race twelve months ago but I am struggling to see why he will finish in front of his rival. Of the rest, they are probably not up to Group 1 level and will likely chase this pair home with Pether’s Moon possibly my pick to finish third. But as I said originally, I think this is a watching brief as there isn’t much to be gained by taking a short price in a race in which is not guaranteed to be run at a true gallop. 3.45 Epsom – Investec Dash One of the strongest trends associated with the Investec Dash is that winners of this race often arrive here in good form. In fact, nine of the last ten winners had finished in the top five on their most recent outing, so it is worth looking for horses who have been running well. The seven members of this year’s field to boast such credentials are Monsieur Joe, Boom The Groom, Monumental Man, Chiclet, Perfect Muse, Desert Law and Secret Missile. Draw bias is a subject of some conjecture in flat racing and whilst there are a variety of reasons why there may be an advantage, we are only interested in the facts here. In the Dash, nine winners in the last decade came from stall 8 or higher which is worth taking notice of. The fact that only Stone Of Folca has managed to defy this trend would have to be a concern for supporters of Desert Law, Smoothtalkinrascal, Monumental Man, Chiclet, Steps, Secret Missile and Monsieur Joe. In terms of age, six-year-olds have ruled the roost in recent years, having accounted for half of the last ten winners. This is good news for the quartet representing that group this year, Caspian Prince, Duke Of Firenze, Monumental Man and Free Zone. I would also issue a word of caution when looking at older sprinters as the nine-year-old Indian Trial in 2009 remains the only recent winner to have won aged older than six. There are nine horses which fall into this bracket this time around including ten-year-old Silvanus. Weight can often play a big part in sprint handicaps and this race is no different. The benchmark looks to be 9st because of the last ten winners, only three have carried more than that. In this year’s field this means that the top five on the racecard all miss out, with Normal Equilibrium finding himself on the correct side thanks to Edward Greatrex’s 7lb claim. Whilst a low weight is important, horses tend to have achieved a certain level of form before they run here. When examining the official rating of winners in the last decade, we can see that seven winners had a rating of 92 or above. This would suggest that the bottom seven as they appear on the card including the likes of Desert Law, Free Zone and Smoothtalkinrascal all have something to find here. The final factor worthy of a mention is the betting and this certainly isn’t a race that favourite backers will remember fondly. Duke Of Firenze was the last market leader to oblige two years ago and I would be reluctant to side with this year’s likely favourite Caspian Prince, despite having won the race last year. In fact there are few races better than this to take a chance on an outsider with two recent winners having gone off at 20/1 or upwards. Shortlist BOOM THE GROOM – 5/6 Monumental Man – 5/6 Chiclet – 4/6 Conclusion BOOM THE GROOM gets the narrow verdict having missed only one of our trends, as he carries 9st 2lb, just above the desired threshold. Apart from that he looks to have strong claims having progressed well over the winter and showed enough last time to suggest he may be able to transfer that ability to turf. Luke Morris has been booked to take the ride for Tony Carroll and with such a strong trends profile, it would be no surprise to see him go very close. Narrowly missing out on the top spot is James Unett’s Monumental Man who completed his preparations with an impressive display over course and distance in April. That race was not as strong as the race at the weekend but it is valuable form over a unique course and it needs respecting. The only trend that he misses is the draw having been allocated stall 3 but if he can overcome that unfavourable draw, he looks a lively contender. The final member of the shortlist is Tracey Collins’ Irish raider Chiclet who has won her last three starts under rules, the last two coming at Dundalk in April. This race has long been a target for her as connections feel the track will suit her but she will also have to overcome a low draw out of stall 4. As a four-year-old, she can take heart from the fact that they have landed two of the last three renewals and despite missing two of the key trends, she shouldn’t be discounted lightly. 4.30 Epsom – Investec Derby (Group 1) So we move onto the Derby and I think for the first time in a couple of years we have a wide open renewal of the Classic. The best place to start is with the favourite Golden Horn and for me he looks likely to be the best horse in the race but that is not to say that he will win. His performance in the Dante was mightily impressive and one thing you do need in the Derby is a turn of foot which this colt certainly has. His owner previously expressed concerns about him seeing out the 1m4f trip and looking at his pedigree those concerns seem to be valid. One thing that time has told us is that horses need to stay to win the Derby and if he stays I think he will win but there is enough to doubt there to be taking him on at around 7/4. His stablemate Jack Hobbs looks likely to stay and still showed enough greenness in the Dante to suggest that there is plenty more to come from him. Pieces of work shouldn’t be taken too much notice of as a rule but he was impressive at Breakfast With The Stars and looks as though he is rapidly improving. His draw in 10 should be fine and if he can improve on his Dante run, he should go close. The only one I haven’t mentioned in the Dante was Elm Park and whilst I think he will stay, I just don’t think he is up to this sort of level. I think that there are holes in his juvenile form and the way he changed his legs at Breakfast with the Stars raises serious concerns about his ability to handle the track. He should step forward from his York run but I would be surprised if he was able to go close. It is interesting that following the Dante, two of Aidan O’Brien’s prospective Derby runners were ruled out of contention and it is now felt that his three runners are outsiders. However, it is worth bearing in mind that all three of his horses are bred to stay and they may offer some each-way value in the race. I have backed HANS HOLBEIN for the St Leger as he is a strong stayer and looked to need every yard of the trip when winning the Chester Vase. He has improved enormously since being fitted with cheekpieces and whilst I think he will be better over further, in a race in which there are doubts about a few of these getting home, I fancy him to hit the frame. He offers some solid each-way value at around 16/1 I think he looks worth a bet despite Moore appearing to favour his stablemate. As I have mentioned Ryan Moore has sided with his stablemate Giovanni Canaletto who was due to take part in the Chester Vase but was ruled out because of a bad scope. He instead ran in the Gallinule Stakes a couple of weeks ago and was turned over and still looked very inexperienced on just his third start. The step up in trip should suit him and it is interesting that he has been fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, the same equipment that his brother Ruler Of The World wore to victory a couple of years ago. He should stay, is open to improvement and could also go close if he steps forward from his latest run. 5.15 Epsom – Investec Out Of The Ordinary Handicap Amanda Perrett’s BLACK SHADOW ran on this day last year when he finished second to What About Carlo in the opening contest. That was just the fourth start of his career and he didn’t go on from that during the rest of the season. However on his reappearance three weeks ago he shaped much better but got a little tired in the closing stages to finish fourth. The winner has since come out and won a Listed race and that run should have put Perrett’s gelding spot on for this. He races here off 4lb lower than the mark he was second off last year and with the yard having won this twice in recent years, he looks well-placed to go well again here. Another horse with course form is the Graham Mays-trained Barwick who was last seen finishing third over course and distance in April. On three visits to Epsom he has never finished outside of the first three and the way he was staying on last time suggests he may have got a little nearer had he been fitter on his return to action. He comes here on a career high mark but has already shown he can be effective around here and with the excellent Jim Crowley on board, he could offer some each-way value. Andrew Balding’s Montaly should also be straighter for his seasonal reappearance where he failed to get involved in a conditions race at Chelmsford at the beginning of May. The race has already thrown up one winner in the shape of Lycidas and the runner-up has also run well since then. He took a keen hold last time which sees connections reach for the hood in a bid to settle him down and there is definitely more to come from this four-year-old. He is likely to get a truer run race than he did last time and looks to have solid each-way claims. 5.50 Epsom – Investec Asset Management Stakes (Handicap) Brian Ellison’s Polski Max was having just his third start for this yard when finishing fifth at Ripon on Wednesday evening. At the peak of his powers a couple of years ago he was a winner off a mark of 97 but made a winning start for this yard in October. There should be plenty more to come from a mark of 83 and drawn pretty well in eight, he should be thereabouts once again. Another runner who has recently changed yards is PEARL BLUE who was claimed out of the Jamie Osborne yard in May and has his second start for David O’Meara on Saturday. He was ridden tentatively on his last start, making late ground to take fourth at Chester and he should be cherry ripe for this assignment. He won a Newmarket handicap off 1lb higher last season and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, he looks primed to give a big showing for a trainer who has made his name with such horses. The final one of most interest could be last year’s winner Ashpan Sam who returns in search of a second win in the race off a 3lb lower mark. The concern would be that he hasn’t shown much form since then and that he would need to be right back to his best to go close again here. This is likely to have been the plan for a while and having had a pipeopener at Goodwood the other week, he should be fit enough to do himself justice.

[Custom Cut]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby On the drift right now but Chiclet (Epsom dash, 3:45) looked to me like a horse with plenty more to come in Dundalk last time. It could not have won more easily and has been given a 6 week break, perhaps targeting this race. Up 10 pounds from the last race but he won by 2 lengths over a horse who won a handicap since. If he was fully pushed out there's no telling what he would have won by. Smullen is off and Hayes is on, but Smullen had absolutely nothing to do in the last race other than hold onto her for the first half of the race and then let her do his thing. Hayes is also perfectly capable. The obvious thing to say is that's a 6 runner on polytrack, what about a 20 runner on turf? The answer is he won a 13 runner race on the straight at Navan 2 runs ago (goes for the 4 timer). The close second that day soon after earned a mark of 93 (chiclet races off 92 tomorrow) in a listed race. The third was 5 lengths back in a 5 furlong race, so I think there's lots there to say she can cope with similar conditions to tomorrow. Unproven on good to firm ground if it goes to that but has run to form on good ground so I think it's all set up well for this horse. I'll be sure to back it when she settles down in the market.

[owenclass]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby Hans Holbein to win the Derby 14/1 paddy power Giovanni Canaletto to win the Derby 8/1 paddy power Kilimanjaro to win the Derby 18/1 paddy power All of thee horses were talked about a few months ago of having good chances in the Derby and i think they still do even though all of them have not had the best of trials to race in Hans Holbein won the Chester Vase but it was not a strong race but some experts says he has a great chance People were talking about Giovanni Canaletto before he was entered for the Derby it was like he was forgotten about but i feel this is Aidan O Briens best horse and Kilimanjaro has got a good chance for a place as this horse was talked about as well so im going for a One Two Three in any order

[PeterX]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby I'm all over Jack Hobbs in the Derby. He was sent off fav in the Dante to be beaten by Golden Horn who looks like a 10f specialist, GH is unbeaten and you can't complain with him as fav. But JH will come on a bundle for that and wants the trip, not so sure GH does. He ran green with the choke out at York and if Buick gets him settled I think he will take all the beating. Godolphin also bought him after the Dante so they obviously fancy him for this race. It doesn't look a vintage year but of the others I think strong stayers Hans Holbein & Storm the Stars could go well and finish there abouts. JACK HOBBS Hans Holbein Storm The Stars

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 5.10 Doncaster Augusta Ada, 5pts EW @ 16/1 Ladbrokes Free Code is the 7/2 favourite here and has top weight, but that was on the basis on 1 run on ground very different to this and is now 5lb higher. Admittedly, he may returned to form but there's enough negatives to want to oppose him. It's hard to dismiss O'Mearas 2 and Victoire De Lyphar but I'm happy to oppose Khelman who rises in the weights without winning. However, at a very generous 16/1, I feel I must have a go on Hanagan's mount Augusta Ada. Whilst the stable has yet to hit form, the jockey booking is telling and the firm ground will suit this one better than most. Steps up in trip but I'm certain it's what the horse wants, in fact she stayed on well when 3rd over this trip at Carlisle on her only try over 7f. In her 15 starts, she has 5 goes with firm in the going description with form figures of 3-2-1-3-1. In her other 10, she's only once finished in the 3. Last won 4 starts ago at Pontefract over 6f (stiff track) when staying on well and scooting clear at 16/1. That was off 5lb lower but won with plenty in hand. Since then, she was a close up 4th at Newmarket under today's jockey (off 2lb higher) when pulling hard due to a slow pace. Then soft ground was against her and, lto, on her seasonal reappearance, she showed promise but 5.5f was too short and she needed the run. Has won in the grade, loves the ground, mark should be ok as I feel she's open to improvement and, provided the stable form doesn't impact us, she'll go very close. 5.15 Epsom Adventure Seeker, 5pts EW @ 14/1 >Bet365 (paying 5 places) 19 runners for this and many with chances. Whilst I normally go with proven Epsom form, I'm concerned about the mark of the key ones, namely Lungarno Palace, Jakey and Barwick. The one I like is Adventure Seeker. Has a decent draw in 9 which is actually a factor at Epsom, even over this trip and has an attractive mark of 96 to his name. What I really like is that this one has a progressive profile and goes particularly well in big fields. In his 12 race career, has 3 times faced fields over 15 or more runners; his record is superb. 1/15 at 12/1 in a 12f handicap at York, 2/17 in the Melrose at York and 2/24 in a 62K Heritage handicap at Newmarket. That last run was off just 2lb below today's mark of 96. Raced off 100 and 99 in 2 runs this term and has had 2 no shows. I'm not too worried about that as the field sizes weren't particularly large, mark was probably too high but, most importantly, stable was misfiring. Ed Vaughan has 3 winners from his last 7 runners, and was 0 from 14 since the beginning of April beforehand. Likes to come off a strong pace which should be guaranteed here and provided Dane O'Neill gets the breaks, I fancy him to go well. 5.50 Epsom Iseemist, 5pts EW @ 12/1 >Paddy Power (paying 4 places) The final race and a competitive 6f sprint. One thing you need here is a lowish draw and the market principles, Secretinthepark, Ashpan Sam, Swiss Cross and Pearl Blue all have that. However, I'm bypassing them all either due to form (first 3) or ground (Pearl Blue). Instead I'm taking Iseemist from stall 4. Firstly, she goes particularly well on undulating tracks including being 1 from 1 here at Epsom. She won easily off 79 on her only try here and is just 3lb higher today. Finished 2nd off 2lb higher than today's mark in the Ayr Bronze Cup at the backend of last term so big fields and mark shouldn't be beyond her. Races prominently too which is usually a plus over sprint trips here. Steadily coming to hand this term but has yet to hit top gear but, as with the last selection, stable form could be the reason. John Gallagher was 1 from 40 in 2015 until 22nd May, but is 3 from 6 in the last 2 weeks. A speedy type who now has the assistance of Martin Lane who has been responsible for 3 of Gallagher's win this year, amazingly from just 4 rides. Lots in her favour and 12/1 is a big price when, in reality, I'm happy to rule out half the field on account of their draw. 7.10 Newcastle Teds Brother, 5pts EW @ 15/2 >William Hill Up to Newcastle for the 4th bet, a straight mile on firmish ground. The very warm favourite here is So Its War at around 2/1, following a pair of wins in handicap company. However, he's raised another 4lb and there's enough in opposition to take him on. A few of these are reopposing on better terms but I've decided to go with another, Teds Brother. Is steadily coming down the weights and is now racing off 66, a mark lower than his last 3 wins. Goes well over the straight track here recording 2 wins and 2 2nds from 11 starts. It's clear to me that he has a class ceiling of grade 5 (never won in higher, 0/20) and is 9 from 46 in this and lower grades. Has also never won first time up or over any distance other than 7f or 1m. Won off 72 last season but anything above that has proved troublesome. Off just 66 today. In the last 12 months (with optimum conditions of distance, not first time out, Class 5 and mark of 72 or lower), form figures read 4-7-1-1. This season, he needed his reappearance as always and then has recorded 2 decent efforts. The first, when 4th of 7 off 2lb lower, was a good run considering he was very keen early doors and didn't get a clear run at a crucial point. Then he was 7th of 15 off the same mark, running much better than finishing position suggests as he was drawn badly and race wasn't run to suit (held up when prominent types held sway). Both of those runs were in a higher grade and over a furlong shorter, and it's noted that he was staying on well and would appreciate the extra furlong he gets today. Has so much in his favour and is the one to beat if running to form.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 2.45 Greyville: Rising Sun Gold Challenge (Grade 1) The race is on and I couldn't be more excited. The Group 1 Rising Sun Gold Challenge gives us the mouthwatering clash of South Africa's heavyweights Legislate VS Futura. The two stars have made it through their preparations and trainer Justin Snaith is happy to let them take each other on. Snaith, who is in the unique position to train both of them, recently said when talking about this: "I had good horses before. But these are the real deal. They would take on anything in the world - they are THAT good." LEGISLATE Reigning horse of the year, reigning Durban July champ, Guineas and Daily News winner - he's done it all in 2014. Heading into the Queen's Plate back in January, South Africa's Premier Mile race, he was thought to be virtually unbeatable. Weeks before he stuffed his rivals, including Futura, in the Grade 2 Green Point Stakes, when returning from a deserved break after winning the biggest race of them all, the Durban July. That's when the problems started. After Aan unusually dismal performance in the Queen's Plate it emerged that Legislate suffered from a severe lung infection. That took him out for months to get over it. He also missed his intended return to the track recently, when he injured himself while loading into the stalls. So, how much ability can Legislate retain? Is he 100% today? According to Justin Snaith, Legislate couldn't be any better. He's ready to go, though it's hard to know whether he's back to his brilliant best. One the positive side: Legislate looked sensational in his public work, effortless floating over the ground. What's more, Legislate usually runs very well as a fresh horse. He always made a successful return - bar the Queens Plate race, where we know he wasn't right. He's also unbeaten at Greyville and clearly has the speed and turn of foot for 1.600m as a former Guineas winner. FUTURA A hype horse at this time last year. Futura was a massive market mover for the Durban July, South Africa's most important race. But he wasn't tested in Grade 1 company yet back then. He looked an emerging star - or a bubble ready to burst - whatever way you wanted to see it. But he proved his class when running out a strong third in the July, with the run of the race clearly against him. He redeemed himself soon after, landing a deserved first success on the highest level. He hasn't looked back since then, bar one race: When put into his place by Legislate in the Green Point Stakes. But he subsequently completed the Queen's Plate & Met double - which is a rare feast! The handicapper reacted, put Futura's rating up to massive 120 - which means he's one of the top rated horses in the world now - mind you, 3lb better than Legislate! Futura had a little break afterwards but was back as strongly as ever when winning a minor race in preparation to the Rising Sun Gold Challenge last month. The general perception is that 1.600m is not an ideal trip for him - 2.000m seems the distance. However his record over 1.600m speaks for itself. 6-4-1-1. Never been out of the money. BEST OF THE REST Of course this is not a two-horse-race. Ten more or less well fancied rivals try to land a blow against the two big guns. Ice Machine with Anton Marcus on board is the closest pursuer in the betting. He was an impressive winner of his prep race recently and loves the trip. Not one you want to underestimate but on bare form has has a little to find. The rest of the field can only hope that the race turns into a muddling affair, which may not quite suit the heavyweights, and as a result they may encounter in-running trouble. There was a shock winner in this very same race twelve month ago, so it's not quite out of the world. A sprint finish would probably suit Willow Magic most. He ran well in a big Grade 1 sprint recently but stays 1.600m. VERDICT I believe a Legislate at his best is the best horse in South Africa - better than Futura too. Before his injury troubles this was the general perception. He was virtually unbeatable, went into the Queen's Plate a 9/20 chance! Over 1600m he has an advantage against Futura as well. But only if he can find back to his brilliant best. The race will tell us if the old Legislate is back. Visually he looked superb in his work. He goes well fresh and I give him the benefit of the doubt today. He he's almost twice as big in the betting as Futura. Convert his odds into a percental chance: 11/4 = 26.6667%. So if I ask myself: Is Legislate a better chance in this field, if anywhere near his best? Absolutely! I'd nominate Willow Magic as the joker in the race and wouldn't be surprised if Halve The Deficit can outrun his big price tag - although both shouldn't be anywhere good enough if things go normal. Legislate @ 11/4 Sportingbet - 10pts Win

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

4.30 Epsom: English Derby' date= Group 1, 1m 4f 10y Golden Horn: Favourite, impressive winner of the Dante Stakes. as the key trial. I marked him as one to follow in my Horses To Follow article. Hard to oppose on form but question mark is the trip. I have him down as a 10f horse, though he might be able to stretch out to the Derby distance. Whether he stays the trip is not really the question, though, it's more whether he's able to stay it in a way that enables him to beat horses who are certain to get it. Jack Hobbs: Runaway winner of a Sandown Handicap. Proved his class in Dante with good runner-up effort. Clearly not yet the finished article and fair chance to stay the trip. That says his dam hasn't produced a winner over 12f yet. Likely to improve again but has to do so if he wants to go close. Elm Park: Racingpost Trophy winner. Didn't do anything wrong when third in Dante on seasonal reappearance. He'll come on for that and I expect him to finish much closer to Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs this time. He clearly stays, will get the trip, but has to prove he can be top class on better ground. However if there is anything soft in the ground come 4.30 Saturday afternoon he must have a prime chance. Giovanni Canaletto: Another one from my Horses To Follow list. Lightly raced, this lack of experience may count against him. But he looked smart when winning a minor race as a juvenile and his comeback run a fortnight ago was promising the way he finished from a poor position. He's a full-brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World and should improve for the trip. Like his big brother, he's fitted with cheep-pieces for the Derby. Epicuris: Group 1 winner in heavy conditions as a juvenile. Form doesn't really work out, and not too exciting on seasonal reappearance when only 2nd in Group 3. Known for his problems in the preliminaries of a race and unclear if he can be fully effective on better ground. Hans Holbein: Lightly raced Chester Vase winner. Probably needs soft ground and more of a Leger type. Big question mark whether he's quick enough to win the Derby. Kilimanjaro: Witnessed with my own eyes when this lad got the mark in a Dundalk maiden back in April. Won the Derby Trial at Lingfield since then. Fair type but I find it hard to see him good enough to win a Derby. Moheet: Looked exciting as a juvenile but hasn't fulfilled promise in couple of starts this year. He may improve with time and experience but the Derby distance looks very ambitious. Storm The Stars: One of the more experienced individuals, yet he looked still a big baby in his races. Took him a while to get off the mark but clearly progressing and the trip is in his blood. Might be up with the pace and wouldn't mind making all if needed. Very dangerous if allowed an easy lead. Success Days: Progressive and impressive in Ireland this year. Likely needs it soft to be seen to best effect and very dubious stayer on pedigree. Rogue Runner: German raider who won two minor races in his native country. May improve for the step up to Derby trip but very hard to see him good enough to land a blow. Carbon Dating: Still a maiden, big chance to finish last. Verdict: Ground seems key. If there are any soft patches in the ground I believe Elm Park must go really close. But with the ground probably drying out over night, I feel there are others races later the year which are likely to suit better. Golden Horn is top class and will go close if he truly gets the trip. But given his very short price is easily opposable. I admit I'm not getting warm with Jack Hobbs and don't see why he is shorter than a couple of others. He's a good horse and may even develop into top class, but for now I have Elm Park higher in the packing order. However it's clearly Giovanni Canaletto who gets the nod from me. I have a 16/1 ante-post bet on him, but he's still a 9/1 chance, which strikes me as too big - therefore I nominate him as my selection for the Derby. He's clearly classy, has the right credentials on pedigree and first time headgear should help to settle and focus when it matters. Giovanni Canaletto @ 9/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

?Best of luck, and what a stunning post, awesome.

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby T?trainer Mr Mark Johnston had two in this race but one has now been ruled out, the jolly does look classy BUT if the Scottish track has had anywhere near the weather experienced around my neck of the woods then the filly could be a sitting duck, from her two starts she's won once but it was on firm ground. I like the action and the chances of the grey colt sent from Eve Johnson's yard, he has a really nice action i look for in a horse, he really knows how to grab the ground and make the best of it, he won last time out under Mr Moore at Goodwood running over the 6f, my only concern today would be today's return to the min straight 5 Mark Johnston & Joe Fanning need no introductions when it comes to these kind of races and overlooking his bay colt could be costly, i personally backed the 2yr old last time out and waved goodbye to my cash a long way from the winning line, I'll pass him over at my peril and a choice that could bite me on the backside, again i feel the going might just be slipping away from him by the hour. 14:15 Musselburgh - In Haste @ 6/1 most firms. I'm Playing safe and going E/w ?Cheeky f/c with the jolly

[Valiant Thor]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby Another lame attempt at the placepot

[RussP]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 6.40 Newcastle Cabelo, 5pts EW @ 9/1 Boylesports I'm happy that this race can be broken in 2, the front 6 in the market really should have this between them. Big Bear is a worthy favourite but I'm worried about the switch to firm ground and not sure whether he can follow up having had a 3 day break. Harwoods Volante & Shamaheart have both been raised in the weights without winning and Advance has question marks having been pulled up lto. Woodys Way could be a danger but may need another furlong. This leads me to Brian Ellison's charge, Cabelo who, like Big Bear, gets 10lb off her rivals being a 3yo tackling older horses. Jockey booking looks telling in that De Sousa, the Epsom star yesterday, is one her and is 1 of only 2 rides he has tonight. Gets in here off 73, 1lb lower than its handicap debut lto at Newmarket. Did run over C&D in a maiden last year finishing an unlucky 3rd at 20/1. Not every horse likes this stiff track so I'm pleased she has some course experience. We can ignore her first run this term, on ground too soft and clearly needed it but next time, won very well at Catterick over this distance & she looked better the further she went. This stiff track will be perfect and the likely fast pace will play to her strengths. She also has a nice draw near the pace so should get a good tow into the race and that's something she didn't get last time at Newmarket when well fancied. Was drawn wide and pulled very hard early doors in a steadily run race. Was still in with a shout 2f out but didn't really pick up, probably as a result of not settling. I'm also not sure 1m suited and she was eased once beaten. Back over a suitable trip on a stiff track with a top jockey all points to a big run.

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby 5.15 Epsom: Class 2 Handicap, 1m 4f A 19 runner strong Handicap - of course it is ultra competitive! That says I do really struggle to see anything obvious and believe this is as open as it gets. A massive upset wouldn't be a surprise. If I'd have to tip the likeliest winner it'd be Jakey, who has the right credentials to go close. But there is better value to find in this field: 40/1 long-shot Pack Leader is the one I have my eyes on. Yes, he's even a long-shot in my book, though probably more like a 20/1 chance. I felt he improved physically from three to four, evident on his seasonal reappearance at Kempton last month. He looked rusty and not very sharp that day, however big and strong, and should come on for the run. Pack Leader has already form at Epsom, when third here last year. He also proved stamina over 12 furlongs in the past, when runner-up at Salisbury in a Handicap off his current mark. His strike rate is worrying, he won only single race to date - though in fairness that was a very good maiden at Goodwood last June - this form works out really well, indeed! I can see him able to outrun his price given that track and trip should suit perfectly plus the possibility of improvement from his seasonal debut run. Pack Leader @ 40/1 StanJames - 5pts Win

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

left it late as poss to do final ratings .......ill have a bash now . epsom derby golden horn 99.56 jack hobbs 99.31 giovanni canneletto 99.24 elm park 99.19 zawraq 99 19 epicuris 99.17 very difficult race to weigh up this year .....nothing really has sparkled and stamped its authority on the race but ratings suggest that the horse nearest to the average winner (100.12 ) is golden horn ....all the others are going to have to improve significantly 15/8 isnt a fantastic price now even though he will most likely win ...so the value most probably lies elsewhere ....of the others the value horse looks to be giovanni canneletto who has the scope and pedigree to be much better at 12f and has been heavily backed in recent days ..a good sign . the 8/1 with paddyp looks the value bet of the race ew now .....epicuris and elm park also have possibilitys of improving on previous runs but if golden horn improves as expected then he should be very hard to beat golden horn 10 pts win 15/8 will hill

well done frankie .....outstanding ride .....

[arsenalfh]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

golden horn 99.56 - 1st jack hobbs 99.31 - 2nd giovanni canneletto 99.24 - 4th elm park 99.19 - 11th zawraq 99 19 - NR epicuris 99.17 - 5th

Storm the Stars the only one missing from the top of your ratings. :clap

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

5.40 Doncaster: Class 4 Handicap' date= 1m The final race on Doncaster's card is all but exciting. But "tracker horse" Oracolo has an entry and I'm inclined to give him a second chance. I was already keen on the son of Cape Cross when he made his seasonal debut at Newmarket last month, but that seemed more like a public gallop for the four year old, in order to blow the cobwebs away. Oracolo appeals as the type likely to improve with age and experience, so the Newmarket outing may have done him the world of good. Still a lightly raced gelding, last year he needed three attempts to get off the mark, finished third in a good Redcar maiden and then went on to win at Wolverhampton in what was quite a decent race. It'll be only his second start in Handicap company here at Doncaster, over a trip and fast ground likely to suit perfectly on pedigree. He also has also been gelded over the winter, which sometimes needs a run or two to really make an impact. In a nutshell: I think in this underwhelming field Oracolo has a prime chance to go really close off a pretty fair mark. Oracolo @ 8/1 Coral - 5pts Win

Done that really nicely! great patient ride by Jamie Spencer as well. Legislate got up in South Africa too. Can't complain today.

[laddo]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby Cheers Bob, you've just saved my Saturday with the Oracolo tip. Almost makes up for my 20/1 ante post bet in the epsom dash coming a close 2nd.

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby

Cheers Bob' date=' you've just saved my Saturday with the Oracolo tip. Almost makes up for my 20/1 ante post bet in the epsom dash coming a close 2nd.[/quote'] yes and me ...lol ...had monsieur joe at 20/1 ...bummer

[robertob]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby Awful with your 20/1 shot guys.... but well done Richard, great ratings, been spot on! 11.50 Belmont: Belmont Stakes (Grade 1) Pretty clear storyline tonight: American Pharoah wins the Belmont and becomes the first conquer of the Triple Crown in ages. That's the theory at least, or what the betting is telling us. Well, in fact many experts were making strong cases for this scenario as well. Pharoah's relaxed attitude, lack of real opposition and so on where all brought up. And rightly so. It would be massive for our sport if American Pharoah could make it happen - the sport needs superstars. Pharoah already is a star, of course. He won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes. But win the Triple Crown and immortality beckons. While he was still heavily challenged in the Derby, he hacked up at sloppy Pimlico - but here's the all important question: can he show the same class over in the Belmont Stakes, a race which puts an alien like test to him? Alien like because the 12f trip is a marathon distance for US racing. Something comparable with 2m in Europe. That's down the nature of US racing. Emphasis is on early speed, unlike in Europe. Personally I'm wary. I was sceptical before the Preakness, back then voicing concerns about the potential third leg of the Tripe Crown. American Pharoah doesn't give me the impression to be a stayer. He's speedy and powerful, but on pedigree you would give him very little chance to go as far as 12f. Now, he has the right attitude, he really has! And he usually hits the line strongly - so happened in the Derby and the Preakness - plus there is there general perception of the lack of classy opposition in the Belmont Stakes, which many believe there is just nobody who's capable of beating him. My view is: that all counts for nothing if he doesn't stay the trip. It's that simple. Yes, my heart is with him tonight, all fingers crossed when he enters the home straight. But my money won't be. So let's check out Pharoah's opposition, shall we? I'm a huge fan of Mike De Kock and South African racing, so I'd love to see Mubtaahij running a mighty race. He swerved the Preakness, which was probably the right decision. But I've trouble to see him getting home over this trip. Unfortunately. Derby fourth Frosted is thought to be the biggest danger to American Pharoah. He also comes here as a fresh horse and seems likely to appreciate the trip. He wasn't well positioned at Churchill Downs, staying on well from the back. On pedigree he has a fair chance to stay 12f, but it's not a given either. Tale Of Vale came from a long way back to finish second in the Preakness, albeit still decisively beaten by Pharoah. Not sure if this performance reflects his true ability. He didn't really excel in minor races before. So I'm rather cautious - he might not be able to back it up. Though the longer trip may well suit. Staying on in the Derby was Materiality. A son of Belmont Stakes winner Afleet Alex, he may appreciated the trip. Whether he is good enough is another question. At least he already is a Grade 1 winner, so can't be easily discounted. Might be an interesting alternative against the red hot favourite. However I find Keen Ice more appealing at a much bigger price. He also didn't go to Pimlico, and is closely matched with Materiality on the Kentucky Derby form, as he finished behind him in 7th. Keen Ice encountered a troubled run, travelling way off the pace. He was hampered and short of room in the closing stages, but finished the race well enough. He's a son of Belmont Stakes runner-up Curlin, who can get offspring capable of staying the Belmont trip, like in 2013 with Palace malice - his stock sometimes needs a while to hit best form as well. Keen ice has some fair Belmont form in his dam line too. That brings me to my final point: the heart is with American Pharoah - if he wins tonight he's to be considered one of the all-time greats. My head and money is with Keen Ice, though, who seems to have good credentials to appreciate the Belmont trip and who looks still a big price, despite some money pouring in for him. Keen Ice @ 16/1 Paddy Power - 5pts Win

[richard-westwood]

Re: Flat Racing ~ Saturday 6th June Inc Epsom Derby belmont stakes american pharoah is going to be incredibly hard to beat tonight but if there is a chink in his armour then it surely has to be too much racing at top level in a short space of time ....the derby ..preakness and now this is a big ask for anyone whereas ...materiality comes here fresh ....if there is to be an upset then surely that has to be it ....has to find about 3-4 lengths on the fav but at 4 x the price 9/2 ..worth a small wager materiality 5 pts win 9/2 generally